On the choice of ensemble mean for estimating the forced signal in the presence of internal variability

This is the final version of the article. Available from American Meteorological Society via the DOI in this record.In this paper we examine various options for the calculation of the forced signal in climate model simulations, and the impact these choices have on the estimates of internal variability. We find that an ensemble mean of runs from a single climate model [a single model ensemble mean (SMEM)] provides a good estimate of the true forced signal even for models with very few ensemble members. In cases where only a single member is available for a given model, however, the SMEM from other models is in general out-performed by the scaled ensemble mean from all available climate model simulations [the multimodel ensemble mean (MMEM)]. The scaled MMEM may therefore be used as an estimate of the forced signal for observations. The MMEM method, however, leads to increasing errors further into the future, as the different rates of warming in the models causes their trajectories to diverge. We therefore apply the SMEM method to those models with a sufficient number of ensemble members to estimate the change in the amplitude of internal variability under a future forcing scenario. In line with previous results, we find that on average the surface air temperature variability decreases at higher latitudes, particularly over the ocean along the sea ice margins, while variability in precipitation increases on average, particularly at high latitudes. Variability in sea level pressure decreases on average in the Southern Hemisphere, while in the Northern Hemisphere there are regional differences.This work was supported by the Australian Research Council (ARC) through grants to L. M. F. (DE170100367) and to M. H. E. through the ARC Centre of Excellence in Climate System Science (CE110001028). J. B. K. is supported by the Natural Environment Research Council (Grant NE/N005783/1). B. A. S. was supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation (EAR-1447048)

El Niño Modulations Over The Past Seven Centuries (Letter to the editor)

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El Niño, tropical Atlantic warmth, and Atlantic hurricanes over the past 1500 years

Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2009. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Nature Publishing Group for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Nature 460 (2009): 880-883, doi:10.1038/nature08219.Atlantic Tropical Cyclone (TC) activity, as measured by annual storm counts, reached anomalous levels over the past decade. The short nature of the historical record and potential issues with its reliability in earlier decades, however, has prompted an ongoing debate regarding the reality and significance of the recent rise. Here, we place recent activity in a longer-term context, by comparing two independent estimates of TC activity over the past 1500 years. The first estimate is based on a composite of regional sedimentary evidence of landfalling hurricanes, while the second estimate employs a previously published statistical model of Atlantic TC activity driven by proxy-reconstructions of past climate changes. Both approaches yield consistent evidence of a peak in Atlantic TC activity during Medieval times (around AD 1000) followed by a subsequent lull in activity. The Medieval peak, which rivals or even exceeds (within uncertainties) recent levels of activity, results in the statistical model from a ‘perfect storm’ of La Niña-like climate conditions and relative tropical Atlantic warmth.M.E.M. and Z.Z. acknowledge support from the ATM programme of the National Science Foundation (grant ATM-0542356). J.P.D. acknowledges support from the EAR and OCE programmes of the National Science Foundation (grants EAR-0519118 and OCE-0402746), the Risk Prediction Initiative at the Bermuda Institute for Ocean Sciences, and the Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research

Lithium storage mechanisms in purpurin based organic lithium ion battery electrodes

Current lithium batteries operate on inorganic insertion compounds to power a diverse range of applications, but recently there is a surging demand to develop environmentally friendly green electrode materials. To develop sustainable and eco-friendly lithium ion batteries, we report reversible lithium ion storage properties of a naturally occurring and abundant organic compound purpurin, which is non-toxic and derived from the plant madder. The carbonyl/hydroxyl groups present in purpurin molecules act as redox centers and reacts electrochemically with Li-ions during the charge/discharge process. The mechanism of lithiation of purpurin is fully elucidated using NMR, UV and FTIR spectral studies. The formation of the most favored six membered binding core of lithium ion with carbonyl groups of purpurin and hydroxyl groups at C-1 and C-4 positions respectively facilitated lithiation process, whereas hydroxyl group at C-2 position remains unaltered

Diminished temperature and vegetation seasonality over northern high latitudes

Global temperature is increasing, especially over northern lands (>50° N), owing to positive feedbacks1. As this increase is most pronounced in winter, temperature seasonality (ST)—conventionally defined as the difference between summer and winter temperatures—is diminishing over time2, a phenomenon that is analogous to its equatorward decline at an annual scale. The initiation, termination and performance of vegetation photosynthetic activity are tied to threshold temperatures3. Trends in the timing of these thresholds and cumulative temperatures above them may alter vegetation productivity, or modify vegetation seasonality (SV), over time. The relationship between ST and SV is critically examined here with newly improved ground and satellite data sets. The observed diminishment of ST and SV is equivalent to 4° and 7° (5° and 6°) latitudinal shift equatorward during the past 30 years in the Arctic (boreal) region. Analysis of simulations from 17 state-of-the-art climate models4 indicates an additional STdiminishment equivalent to a 20° equatorward shift could occur this century. How SV will change in response to such large projected ST declines and the impact this will have on ecosystem services5 are not well understood. Hence the need for continued monitoring6 of northern lands as their seasonal temperature profiles evolve to resemble thosefurther south.Lopullinen vertaisarvioitu käsikirjoitu

The comparision of glybenclamide and metformin-loaded bacterial cellulose/gelatin nanofibres produced by a portable electrohydrodynamic gun for diabetic wound healing

Wound dressings made from natural polymers are an important aspect of biomaterials. Protein-based materials are less likely to instigate an immunogenic response and have the capacity to degrade in vivo, also without triggering an inflammatory response. Therefore, gelatin (GEL) was chosen and combined with bacterial cellulose (BC) to produce nanofibres and the potential of an all-natural polymer construct was determined. GEL and BC were successfully electrospun with metformin (Met) and glybenclamide (Gb) using a portable, point of need electrospinning set up. The virgin fibre group exhibited a significant effect on the proliferation of L929 (mouse fibroblast) cells but all fibre samples can safely be applied on wound site without risk of cytotoxicity. According to the results obtained by animal tests, the GEL-BC-Gb group showed better recovery than the GEL-BC-Met group. Diabetic wounds treated with GEL-BC-Met were characterized by moderate re-epithelialization and partially organized granulation tissue. Moderate to complete re-epithelialization and well-formed granulation tissue were observed in diabetic wounds treated with GEL-BC-Gb. The histologic scores obtained on day 14 confirmed that the GEL-BC-Gb group played a stronger wound-healing role compared to the GEL-BC-Met group. The highest decrease of TNF-α level was observed in the GEL-BC-Gb group at the end of the experiment but there is no significant difference between drug-loaded fibre groups. Therefore, topical administration of Met and Gb in a sustained release form has a high potential for diabetic wound healing with high bioavailability and fewer systemic side effects but Gb showed better improvement according to the results of the animal tests

Testing Yukawa-unified SUSY during year 1 of LHC: the role of multiple b-jets, dileptons and missing E_T

We examine the prospects for testing SO(10) Yukawa-unified supersymmetric models during the first year of LHC running at \sqrt{s}= 7 TeV, assuming integrated luminosity values of 0.1 to 1 fb^-1. We consider two cases: the Higgs splitting (HS) and the D-term splitting (DR3) models. Each generically predicts light gluinos and heavy squarks, with an inverted scalar mass hierarchy. We hence expect large rates for gluino pair production followed by decays to final states with large b-jet multiplicity. For 0.2 fb^-1 of integrated luminosity, we find a 5 sigma discovery reach of m(gluino) ~ 400 GeV even if missing transverse energy, E_T^miss, is not a viable cut variable, by examining the multi-b-jet final state. A corroborating signal should stand out in the opposite-sign (OS) dimuon channel in the case of the HS model; the DR3 model will require higher integrated luminosity to yield a signal in the OS dimuon channel. This region may also be probed by the Tevatron with 5-10 fb^-1 of data, if a corresponding search in the multi-b+ E_T^miss channel is performed. With higher integrated luminosities of ~1 fb^-1, using E_T^miss plus a large multiplicity of b-jets, LHC should be able to discover Yukawa-unified SUSY with m(gluino) up to about 630 GeV. Thus, the year 1 LHC reach for Yukawa-unified SUSY should be enough to either claim a discovery of the gluino, or to very nearly rule out this class of models, since higher values of m(gluino) lead to rather poor Yukawa unification.Comment: 32 pages including 31 EPS figure

Exceptional twentieth-century slowdown in Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation

Possible changes in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) provide a key source of uncertainty regarding future climate change. Maps of temperature trends over the twentieth century show a conspicuous region of cooling in the northern Atlantic. Here we present multiple lines of evidence suggesting that this cooling may be due to a reduction in the AMOC over the twentieth century and particularly after 1970. Since 1990 the AMOC seems to have partly recovered. This time evolution is consistently suggested by an AMOC index based on sea surface temperatures, by the hemispheric temperature difference, by coral-based proxies and by oceanic measurements. We discuss a possible contribution of the melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet to the slowdown. Using a multi-proxy temperature reconstruction for the AMOC index suggests that the AMOC weakness after 1975 is an unprecedented event in the past millennium (p > 0.99). Further melting of Greenland in the coming decades could contribute to further weakening of the AMOC

Measuring the health impact of human rights violations related to Australian asylum policies and practices: A mixed methods study

This article has been made available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund - Copyright @ 2009 Johnston et al.BACKGROUND: Human rights violations have adverse consequences for health. However, to date, there remains little empirical evidence documenting this association, beyond the obvious physical and psychological effects of torture. The primary aim of this study was to investigate whether Australian asylum policies and practices, which arguably violate human rights, are associated with adverse health outcomes. METHODS: We designed a mixed methods study to address the study aim. A cross-sectional survey was conducted with 71 Iraqi Temporary Protection Visa (TPV) refugees and 60 Iraqi Permanent Humanitarian Visa (PHV) refugees, residing in Melbourne, Australia. Prior to a recent policy amendment, TPV refugees were only given temporary residency status and had restricted access to a range of government funded benefits and services that permanent refugees are automatically entitled to. The quantitative results were triangulated with semi-structured interviews with TPV refugees and service providers. The main outcome measures were self-reported physical and psychological health. Standardised self-report instruments, validated in an Arabic population, were used to measure health and wellbeing outcomes. RESULTS: Forty-six percent of TPV refugees compared with 25% of PHV refugees reported symptoms consistent with a diagnosis of clinical depression (p = 0.003). After controlling for the effects of age, gender and marital status, TPV status made a statistically significant contribution to psychological distress (B = 0.5, 95% CI 0.3 to 0.71, p </= 0.001) amongst Iraqi refugees. Qualitative data revealed that TPV refugees generally felt socially isolated and lacking in control over their life circumstances, because of their experiences in detention and on a temporary visa. This sense of powerlessness and, for some, an implicit awareness they were being denied basic human rights, culminated in a strong sense of injustice. CONCLUSION: Government asylum policies and practices violating human rights norms are associated with demonstrable psychological health impacts. This link between policy, rights violations and health outcomes offers a framework for addressing the impact of socio-political structures on health.This research was supported by an Australian National and Medical Research Council PhD Scholarship (N. 251782) and a Victorian Health Promotion Foundation research grant (No. 2002-0280)