Sensitivity of global ocean biogeochemical dynamics to ecosystem structure in a future climate

Terrestrial and oceanic ecosystem components of the Earth System models (ESMs) are key to predict the future behavior of the global carbon cycle. Ocean ecosystem models represent low complexity compared to terrestrial ecosystem models. In this study we use two ocean biogeochemical models based on the explicit representation of multiple planktonic functional types. We impose to the models the same future physical perturbation and compare the response of ecosystem dynamics, export production (EP) and ocean carbon uptake (OCU) to the same physical changes. Models comparison shows that: (1) EP changes directly translate into changes of OCU on decadal time scale, (2) the representation of ecosystem structure plays a pivotal role at linking OCU and EP, (3) OCU is highly sensitive to representation of ecosystem in the Equatorial Pacific and Southern Oceans

An Assessment of CO2 Uptake in the Arctic Ocean From 1985 to 2018

As a contribution to the Regional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes phase 2 (RECCAP2) project, we present synthesized estimates of Arctic Ocean sea-air CO2 fluxes and their uncertainties from surface ocean pCO2-observation products, ocean biogeochemical hindcast and data assimilation models, and atmospheric inversions. For the period of 1985–2018, the Arctic Ocean was a net sink of CO2 of 116 ± 4 TgC yr−1 in the pCO2 products, 92 ± 30 TgC yr−1 in the models, and 91 ± 21 TgC yr−1 in the atmospheric inversions. The CO2 uptake peaks in late summer and early autumn, and is low in winter when sea ice inhibits sea-air fluxes. The long-term mean CO2 uptake in the Arctic Ocean is primarily caused by steady-state fluxes of natural carbon (70% ± 15%), and enhanced by the atmospheric CO2 increase (19% ± 5%) and climate change (11% ± 18%). The annual mean CO2 uptake increased from 1985 to 2018 at a rate of 31 ± 13 TgC yr−1 dec−1 in the pCO2 products, 10 ± 4 TgC yr−1 dec−1 in the models, and 32 ± 16 TgC yr−1 dec−1 in the atmospheric inversions. Moreover, 77% ± 38% of the trend in the net CO2 uptake over time is caused by climate change, primarily due to rapid sea ice loss in recent years. Furthermore, true uncertainties may be larger than the given ensemble standard deviations due to common structural biases across all individual estimates

Ocean biogeochemical response to phytoplankton-light feedback in a global model

Oceanic phytoplankton, absorbing solar radiation, can influence the bio-optical properties of seawater and hence upper ocean physics. We include this process in a global ocean general circulation model (OGCM) coupled to a dynamic green ocean model (DGOM) based on multiple plankton functional types (PFT). We not only study the impact of this process on ocean physics but we also explore the biogeochemical response due to this biophysical feedback. The phytoplankton-light feedback (PLF) impacts the dynamics of the upper tropical and subtropical oceans. The change in circulation enhances both the vertical supply in the tropics and the lateral supply of nutrients from the tropics to the subtropics boosting the subtropical productivity by up to 60 gC m(-2) a(-1). Physical changes, due to the PLF, impact on light and nutrient availability causing shifts in the ocean ecosystems. In the extratropics, increased stratification favors calcifiers (by up to similar to 8%) at the expense of mixed phytoplankton. In the Southern Ocean, silicifiers increase their biomass (by up to similar to 10%) because of the combined alleviation of iron and light limitation. The PLF has a small effect globally on air-sea fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO2, 72 TmolC a(-1) outgassing) and oxygen (O-2, 46 TmolO(2) a(-1) ingassing) because changes in biogeochemical processes (primary production, biogenic calcification, and export production) highly vary regionally and can also oppose each other. From our study it emerges that the main impact of the PLF is an amplification of the seasonal cycle of physical and biogeochemical properties of the high-latitude oceans mostly driven by the amplification of the SST seasonal cycle

An analysis of the carbon balance of the Arctic Basin from 1997 to 2006

Author Posting. © The Authors, 2010. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of John Wiley & Sons for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Tellus B 62 (2010): 455-474, doi:10.1111/j.1600-0889.2010.00497.x.This study used several model-based tools to analyze the dynamics of the Arctic Basin between 1997 and 2006 as a linked system of land-ocean-atmosphere C exchange. The analysis estimates that terrestrial areas of the Arctic Basin lost 62.9 Tg C yr-1 and that the Arctic Ocean gained 94.1 Tg C yr-1. Arctic lands and oceans were a net CO2 sink of 108.9 Tg C yr-1, which is within the range of uncertainty in estimates from atmospheric inversions. Although both lands and oceans of the Arctic were estimated to be CO2 sinks, the land sink diminished in strength because of increased fire disturbance compared to previous decades, while the ocean sink increased in strength because of increased biological pump activity associated with reduced sea ice cover. Terrestrial areas of the Arctic were a net source of 41.5 Tg CH4 yr-1 that increased by 0.6 Tg CH4 yr-1 during the decade of analysis, a magnitude that is comparable with an atmospheric inversion of CH4. Because the radiative forcing of the estimated CH4 emissions is much greater than the CO2 sink, the analysis suggests that the Arctic Basin is a substantial net source of green house gas forcing to the climate system.This study was supported, in part, by the NSF Arctic System Science Program as part of the Arctic Carbon Cycle Synthesis Project (ARC-0531047, 0531082, 0531119, and 0554811)

Modelling the growth of atmospheric nitrous oxide using a global hierarchical inversion

Nitrous oxide is a potent greenhouse gas (GHG) and ozone-depleting substance, whose atmospheric abundance has risen throughout the contemporary record. In this work, we carry out the first global hierarchical Bayesian inversion to solve for nitrous oxide emissions, which includes prior emissions with truncated Gaussian distributions and Gaussian model errors, in order to examine the drivers of the atmospheric surface growth rate. We show that both emissions and climatic variability are key drivers of variations in the surface nitrous oxide growth rate between 2011 and 2020. We derive increasing global nitrous oxide emissions, which are mainly driven by emissions between 0 and 30∘ N, with the highest emissions recorded in 2020. Our mean global total emissions for 2011–2020 of 17.2 (16.7–17.7 at the 95 % credible intervals) Tg N yr−1, comprising of 12.0 (11.2–12.8) Tg N yr−1 from land and 5.2 (4.5–5.9) Tg N yr−1 from ocean, agrees well with previous studies, but we find that emissions are poorly constrained for some regions of the world, particularly for the oceans. The prior emissions used in this and other previous work exhibit a seasonal cycle in the extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere that is out of phase with the posterior solution, and there is a substantial zonal redistribution of emissions from the prior to the posterior. Correctly characterizing the uncertainties in the system, for example in the prior emission fields, is crucial for deriving posterior fluxes that are consistent with observations. In this hierarchical inversion, the model-measurement discrepancy and the prior flux uncertainty are informed by the data, rather than solely through “expert judgement”. We show cases where this framework provides different plausible adjustments to the prior fluxes compared to inversions using widely adopted, fixed uncertainty constraints.</p

Modelling the growth of atmospheric nitrous oxide using a global hierarchical inversion

Nitrous oxide is a potent greenhouse gas (GHG) and ozone-depleting substance, whose atmospheric abundance has risen throughout the contemporary record. In this work, we carry out the first global hierarchical Bayesian inversion to solve for nitrous oxide emissions, which includes prior emissions with truncated Gaussian distributions and Gaussian model errors, in order to examine the drivers of the atmospheric surface growth rate. We show that both emissions and climatic variability are key drivers of variations in the surface nitrous oxide growth rate between 2011 and 2020. We derive increasing global nitrous oxide emissions, which are mainly driven by emissions between 0 and 30∘ N, with the highest emissions recorded in 2020. Our mean global total emissions for 2011–2020 of 17.2 (16.7–17.7 at the 95 % credible intervals) Tg N yr−1, comprising of 12.0 (11.2–12.8) Tg N yr−1 from land and 5.2 (4.5–5.9) Tg N yr−1 from ocean, agrees well with previous studies, but we find that emissions are poorly constrained for some regions of the world, particularly for the oceans. The prior emissions used in this and other previous work exhibit a seasonal cycle in the extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere that is out of phase with the posterior solution, and there is a substantial zonal redistribution of emissions from the prior to the posterior. Correctly characterizing the uncertainties in the system, for example in the prior emission fields, is crucial for deriving posterior fluxes that are consistent with observations. In this hierarchical inversion, the model-measurement discrepancy and the prior flux uncertainty are informed by the data, rather than solely through “expert judgement”. We show cases where this framework provides different plausible adjustments to the prior fluxes compared to inversions using widely adopted, fixed uncertainty constraints.</p

An assessment of the Atlantic and Arctic sea–air CO2 fluxes, 1990–2009

© The Author(s), 2013. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Biogeosciences 10 (2013): 607-627, doi:10.5194/bg-10-607-2013.The Atlantic and Arctic Oceans are critical components of the global carbon cycle. Here we quantify the net sea–air CO2 flux, for the first time, across different methodologies for consistent time and space scales for the Atlantic and Arctic basins. We present the long-term mean, seasonal cycle, interannual variability and trends in sea–air CO2 flux for the period 1990 to 2009, and assign an uncertainty to each. We use regional cuts from global observations and modeling products, specifically a pCO2-based CO2 flux climatology, flux estimates from the inversion of oceanic and atmospheric data, and results from six ocean biogeochemical models. Additionally, we use basin-wide flux estimates from surface ocean pCO2 observations based on two distinct methodologies. Our estimate of the contemporary sea–air flux of CO2 (sum of anthropogenic and natural components) by the Atlantic between 40° S and 79° N is −0.49 ± 0.05 Pg C yr−1, and by the Arctic it is −0.12 ± 0.06 Pg C yr−1, leading to a combined sea–air flux of −0.61 ± 0.06 Pg C yr−1 for the two decades (negative reflects ocean uptake). We do find broad agreement amongst methodologies with respect to the seasonal cycle in the subtropics of both hemispheres, but not elsewhere. Agreement with respect to detailed signals of interannual variability is poor, and correlations to the North Atlantic Oscillation are weaker in the North Atlantic and Arctic than in the equatorial region and southern subtropics. Linear trends for 1995 to 2009 indicate increased uptake and generally correspond between methodologies in the North Atlantic, but there is disagreement amongst methodologies in the equatorial region and southern subtropics.U. Schuster has been supported by EU grants IP 511176-2 (CARBOOCEAN), 212196 (COCOS), and 264879 (CARBOCHANGE), and UK NERC grant NE/H017046/1 (UKOARP). G. A. McKinley and A. Fay thank NASA for support (NNX08AR68G, NNX11AF53G). P. Landsch¨utzer has been supported by EU grant 238366 (GREENCYCLESII). N. Metzl acknowledges the French national funding program LEFE/INSU. Support for N. Gruber has been provided by EU grants 264879 (CARBOCHANGE) and 283080 (GEO-CARBON) S. Doney acknowledges support from NOAA (NOAA-NA07OAR4310098). T. Takahashi is supported by NOAA (NAO80AR4320754)

The processing and impact of dissolved riverine nitrogen in the Arctic Ocean

© The Author(s), 2011. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Estuaries and Coasts 35 (2012): 401-415, doi:10.1007/s12237-011-9417-3.Although the Arctic Ocean is the most riverine-influenced of all of the world’s oceans, the importance of terrigenous nutrients in this environment is poorly understood. This study couples estimates of circumpolar riverine nutrient fluxes from the PARTNERS (Pan-Arctic River Transport of Nutrients, Organic Matter, and Suspended Sediments) Project with a regionally configured version of the MIT general circulation model to develop estimates of the distribution and availability of dissolved riverine N in the Arctic Ocean, assess its importance for primary production, and compare these estimates to potential bacterial production fueled by riverine C. Because riverine dissolved organic nitrogen is remineralized slowly, riverine N is available for uptake well into the open ocean. Despite this, we estimate that even when recycling is considered, riverine N may support 0.5–1.5 Tmol C year−1 of primary production, a small proportion of total Arctic Ocean photosynthesis. Rapid uptake of dissolved inorganic nitrogen coupled with relatively high rates of dissolved organic nitrogen regeneration in N-limited nearshore regions, however, leads to potential localized rates of riverine-supported photosynthesis that represent a substantial proportion of nearshore production.Funding for this work was provided through NSFOPP- 0229302 and NSF-OPP-0732985.Support to SET was additionally provided by an NSERC Postdoctoral Fellowship

Constraining regional and global ocean carbon fluxes 1985 to 2018 in RECCAP2

EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 24–28 April 2023.-- This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 LicenseKeeping global warming in line with the Paris Agreement requires rapid reductions in CO2 emissions. Tracking these reductions demands a thorough bookkeeping of natural and anthropogenic carbon fluxes. The second REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP2) activity of the Global Carbon Project aims to accurately assess land and ocean CO2 sources and sinks through the efforts of hundreds of scientists around the globe. For the ocean component, regional budgets are developed for the global ocean and five large regions for the period 1980-2018. In addition, four ‘special focus’ themes, namely the biological carbon pump, the seasonal cycle, the coastal ocean and model evaluation are addressed. We use state-of-the-art ocean models and observation-based datasets to provide robust estimates of regional CO2 budgets and constrain their uncertainties. Here, we will provide an overview of RECCAP2 activities, and showcase key results focusing on mean ocean carbon fluxes, and their trends and variabilityN

Constraining regional and global ocean carbon fluxes in RECCAP2

WMO International Greenhouse Gas Monitoring Symposium, 30 Jan - 01 Feb 2023, GenevaN