A Comparative Study of Single and Multi-Stage Forecasting Algorithms for the Prediction of Electricity Consumption Using a UK-National Health Service (NHS) Hospital Dataset

Data Availability Statement: Restrictions apply to the availability of the electricity consumption data. The data belong to Medway NHS Foundation Trust but were collected using systems provided by EnergyLogix. Data, however, can be made available with the approval of the corresponding author (A.T.), Medway NHS Foundation Trust, and EnergyLogix. As for the weather data, they were obtained from [24].Copyright © 2023 by the authors. Accurately looking into the future was a significantly major challenge prior to the era of big data, but with rapid advancements in the Internet of Things (IoT), Artificial Intelligence (AI), and the data availability around us, this has become relatively easier. Nevertheless, in order to ensure high-accuracy forecasting, it is crucial to consider suitable algorithms and the impact of the extracted features. This paper presents a framework to evaluate a total of nine forecasting algorithms categorised into single and multistage models, constructed from the Prophet, Support Vector Regression (SVR), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) approaches, applied to an electricity demand dataset from an NHS hospital. The aim is to see such techniques widely used in accurately predicting energy consumption, limiting the negative impacts of future waste on energy, and making a contribution towards the 2050 net zero carbon target. The proposed method accounts for patterns in demand and temperature to accurately forecast consumption. The Coefficient of Determination (R2), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) were used to evaluate the algorithms’ performance. The results show the superiority of the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model and the multistage Facebook Prophet model, with R2 values of 87.20% and 68.06%, respectively.Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) grants, EP/T517896/1

Measurement and interpretation of same-sign W boson pair production in association with two jets in pp collisions at s = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

This paper presents the measurement of fducial and diferential cross sections for both the inclusive and electroweak production of a same-sign W-boson pair in association with two jets (W±W±jj) using 139 fb−1 of proton-proton collision data recorded at a centre-of-mass energy of √s = 13 TeV by the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. The analysis is performed by selecting two same-charge leptons, electron or muon, and at least two jets with large invariant mass and a large rapidity diference. The measured fducial cross sections for electroweak and inclusive W±W±jj production are 2.92 ± 0.22 (stat.) ± 0.19 (syst.)fb and 3.38±0.22 (stat.)±0.19 (syst.)fb, respectively, in agreement with Standard Model predictions. The measurements are used to constrain anomalous quartic gauge couplings by extracting 95% confdence level intervals on dimension-8 operators. A search for doubly charged Higgs bosons H±± that are produced in vector-boson fusion processes and decay into a same-sign W boson pair is performed. The largest deviation from the Standard Model occurs for an H±± mass near 450 GeV, with a global signifcance of 2.5 standard deviations

Combination of searches for heavy spin-1 resonances using 139 fb−1 of proton-proton collision data at s = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A combination of searches for new heavy spin-1 resonances decaying into different pairings of W, Z, or Higgs bosons, as well as directly into leptons or quarks, is presented. The data sample used corresponds to 139 fb−1 of proton-proton collisions at = 13 TeV collected during 2015–2018 with the ATLAS detector at the CERN Large Hadron Collider. Analyses selecting quark pairs (qq, bb, , and tb) or third-generation leptons (τν and ττ) are included in this kind of combination for the first time. A simplified model predicting a spin-1 heavy vector-boson triplet is used. Cross-section limits are set at the 95% confidence level and are compared with predictions for the benchmark model. These limits are also expressed in terms of constraints on couplings of the heavy vector-boson triplet to quarks, leptons, and the Higgs boson. The complementarity of the various analyses increases the sensitivity to new physics, and the resulting constraints are stronger than those from any individual analysis considered. The data exclude a heavy vector-boson triplet with mass below 5.8 TeV in a weakly coupled scenario, below 4.4 TeV in a strongly coupled scenario, and up to 1.5 TeV in the case of production via vector-boson fusion

Pooled analysis of WHO Surgical Safety Checklist use and mortality after emergency laparotomy

Background The World Health Organization (WHO) Surgical Safety Checklist has fostered safe practice for 10 years, yet its place in emergency surgery has not been assessed on a global scale. The aim of this study was to evaluate reported checklist use in emergency settings and examine the relationship with perioperative mortality in patients who had emergency laparotomy. Methods In two multinational cohort studies, adults undergoing emergency laparotomy were compared with those having elective gastrointestinal surgery. Relationships between reported checklist use and mortality were determined using multivariable logistic regression and bootstrapped simulation. Results Of 12 296 patients included from 76 countries, 4843 underwent emergency laparotomy. After adjusting for patient and disease factors, checklist use before emergency laparotomy was more common in countries with a high Human Development Index (HDI) (2455 of 2741, 89.6 per cent) compared with that in countries with a middle (753 of 1242, 60.6 per cent; odds ratio (OR) 0.17, 95 per cent c.i. 0.14 to 0.21, P <0001) or low (363 of 860, 422 per cent; OR 008, 007 to 010, P <0.001) HDI. Checklist use was less common in elective surgery than for emergency laparotomy in high-HDI countries (risk difference -94 (95 per cent c.i. -11.9 to -6.9) per cent; P <0001), but the relationship was reversed in low-HDI countries (+121 (+7.0 to +173) per cent; P <0001). In multivariable models, checklist use was associated with a lower 30-day perioperative mortality (OR 0.60, 0.50 to 073; P <0.001). The greatest absolute benefit was seen for emergency surgery in low- and middle-HDI countries. Conclusion Checklist use in emergency laparotomy was associated with a significantly lower perioperative mortality rate. Checklist use in low-HDI countries was half that in high-HDI countries.Peer reviewe

Accuracy versus precision in boosted top tagging with the ATLAS detector

Abstract The identification of top quark decays where the top quark has a large momentum transverse to the beam axis, known as top tagging, is a crucial component in many measurements of Standard Model processes and searches for beyond the Standard Model physics at the Large Hadron Collider. Machine learning techniques have improved the performance of top tagging algorithms, but the size of the systematic uncertainties for all proposed algorithms has not been systematically studied. This paper presents the performance of several machine learning based top tagging algorithms on a dataset constructed from simulated proton-proton collision events measured with the ATLAS detector at √ s = 13 TeV. The systematic uncertainties associated with these algorithms are estimated through an approximate procedure that is not meant to be used in a physics analysis, but is appropriate for the level of precision required for this study. The most performant algorithms are found to have the largest uncertainties, motivating the development of methods to reduce these uncertainties without compromising performance. To enable such efforts in the wider scientific community, the datasets used in this paper are made publicly available.</jats:p

Combined measurement of the Higgs boson mass from the H → γγ and H → ZZ∗ → 4ℓ decay channels with the ATLAS detector using √s = 7, 8, and 13 TeV pp collision data

A measurement of the mass of the Higgs boson combining the H → Z Z ∗ → 4 ℓ and H → γ γ decay channels is presented. The result is based on 140     fb − 1 of proton-proton collision data collected by the ATLAS detector during LHC run 2 at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV combined with the run 1 ATLAS mass measurement, performed at center-of-mass energies of 7 and 8 TeV, yielding a Higgs boson mass of 125.11 ± 0.09 ( stat ) ± 0.06 ( syst ) = 125.11 ± 0.11     GeV . This corresponds to a 0.09% precision achieved on this fundamental parameter of the Standard Model of particle physics

Global variation in anastomosis and end colostomy formation following left-sided colorectal resection

Background End colostomy rates following colorectal resection vary across institutions in high-income settings, being influenced by patient, disease, surgeon and system factors. This study aimed to assess global variation in end colostomy rates after left-sided colorectal resection. Methods This study comprised an analysis of GlobalSurg-1 and -2 international, prospective, observational cohort studies (2014, 2016), including consecutive adult patients undergoing elective or emergency left-sided colorectal resection within discrete 2-week windows. Countries were grouped into high-, middle- and low-income tertiles according to the United Nations Human Development Index (HDI). Factors associated with colostomy formation versus primary anastomosis were explored using a multilevel, multivariable logistic regression model. Results In total, 1635 patients from 242 hospitals in 57 countries undergoing left-sided colorectal resection were included: 113 (6·9 per cent) from low-HDI, 254 (15·5 per cent) from middle-HDI and 1268 (77·6 per cent) from high-HDI countries. There was a higher proportion of patients with perforated disease (57·5, 40·9 and 35·4 per cent; P < 0·001) and subsequent use of end colostomy (52·2, 24·8 and 18·9 per cent; P < 0·001) in low- compared with middle- and high-HDI settings. The association with colostomy use in low-HDI settings persisted (odds ratio (OR) 3·20, 95 per cent c.i. 1·35 to 7·57; P = 0·008) after risk adjustment for malignant disease (OR 2·34, 1·65 to 3·32; P < 0·001), emergency surgery (OR 4·08, 2·73 to 6·10; P < 0·001), time to operation at least 48 h (OR 1·99, 1·28 to 3·09; P = 0·002) and disease perforation (OR 4·00, 2·81 to 5·69; P < 0·001). Conclusion Global differences existed in the proportion of patients receiving end stomas after left-sided colorectal resection based on income, which went beyond case mix alone