MONETARY EXCHANGE RATE MODEL REVISITED: COINTEGRATION AND FORECASTING IN HETEROGENEOUS PANEL DATA

ABSTRACT This study re-examines the exchange rate-monetary fundamentals link with in a panel data framework. Pure time series and pooled time series-based tests fail to find empirical support for monetary exchange rate models (Sarantis (1994) and Groen (2000)). Using recently developed Panel Data Techniques; we would test the exchange rates and monetary fundamentals in a quarterly panel of 19 countries mostly from developed region extending from 1973.1 to 1997.1. Present analysis would be centered on three issues. First, we test whether exchange rates cointegrated with long run determinants predicted by economic theory. For this purpose, we would be employed Pedroni (1997) and Larsson et al (2001) panel cointegration tests for empirical validation of the study. Second, we will also test the short run implications of exchange rate model. These short run implications will be tested; through adapting the panel VEC model the short run identification schemes of Johansen and Juselius (1994). The last issue is to examine the ability for monetary fundamentals to forecast future exchange rate returns. The present endeavor will follow Mark and Sul (2001) approach for forecasting in the case of Panel Data Testing.Panel cointegration; Prediction; Exchange rates.

Evaluation of economic loss caused by Indian crested porcupine (Hystrix indica) in agricultural land of district Muzaffarabad, Azad Jammu and Kashmir, Pakistan

The Indian crested porcupine (Hystrix indica) is a vertebrate pest of agricultural lands and forest. The study was aimed to report the damage to local crops by the Indian crested porcupine (Hystrix indica) in the Muzaffarabad District. A survey was conducted to identify the porcupine-affected areas and assess the crop damage to the local farmers in district Muzaffarabad Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) from May 2017 to October 2017. Around 19 villages were surveyed, and a sum of 191 semi-structured questionnaires was distributed among farmers. Crop damage was found highest in village Dhanni where a porcupine destroyed 175 Kg/Kanal of the crops. Regarding the total magnitude of crop loss, village Danna and Koomi kot were the most affected areas. More than half (51.8%) of the respondents in the study area suffered the economic loss within the range of 101-200$, and (29.8$ annually. Among all crops, maize (Zea mays) was found to be the most damaged crop ranging between 1-300 Kg annually. In the study area, porcupine also inflicted a lot of damages to some important vegetables, including spinach (Spinacia oleracea), potato (Solanum tuberosum) and onion (Allium cepa). It was estimated that, on average, 511Kg of vegetables are destroyed by porcupine every year in the agricultural land of Muzaffarabad. It was concluded that the Indian crested porcupine has a devastating effect on agriculture which is an important source of income and food for the local community. Developing an effective pest control strategy with the help of the local government and the Wildlife department could help the farmers to overcome this problem

Expression of core antigen of HCV genotype 3a and its evaluation as screening agent for HCV infection in Pakistan

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Pakistan is facing a threat from hepatitis C infection which is increasing at an alarming rate throughout the country. More specific and sensitive screening assays are needed to timely and correctly diagnose this infection.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>After RNA extraction from specimen (HCV-3a), cDNA was synthesized that was used to amplify full length core gene of HCV 3a. After verification through PCR, DNA sequencing and BLAST, a properly oriented positive recombinant plasmid for core gene was digested with proper restriction enzymes to release the target gene which was then inserted downstream of GST encoding DNA in the same open reading frame at proper restriction sites in multiple cloning site of pGEX4t2 expression vector. Recombinant expression vector for each gene was transformed in <it>E. coli </it>BL21 (DE3) and induced with IPTG for recombinant fusion protein production that was then purified through affinity chromatography. Western blot and Enzyme Linked Immunosorbant Assay (ELISA) were used to detect immuno-reactivity of the recombinant protein.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The HCV core antigen produced in prokaryotic expression system was reactive and used to develop a screening assay. After validating the positivity (100%) and negativity (100%) of in-house anti-HCV screening assay through a standardized panel of 200 HCV positive and 200 HCV negative sera, a group of 120 serum specimens of suspected HCV infection were subjected to comparative analysis of our method with commercially available assay. The comparison confirmed that our method is more specific than the commercially available assays for HCV strains circulating in this specific geographical region of the world and could thus be used for HCV screening in Pakistan.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>In this study, we devised a screening assay after successful PCR amplification, isolation, sequencing, expression and purification of core antigen of HCV genotype 3a. Our developed screening assay is more sensitive, specific and reproducible than the commercially available screening assays in Pakistan.</p

Envelope 2 protein phosphorylation sites S75 & 277 of hepatitis C virus genotype 1a and interferon resistance: A sequence alignment approach

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Hepatitis C is a major health problem affecting more than 200 million individuals in world including Pakistan. Current treatment regimen consisting of interferon alpha and ribavirin does not always succeed to eliminate virus completely from the patient's body.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Interferon induced antiviral protein kinase R (PKR) has a role in the hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatment as dsRNA activated PKR has the capacity to phosphorylate the serine and threonine of E2 protein and dimerization viral RNA. E2 gene of hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotype 1 has an active role in IFN resistance. E2 protein inhibits and terminates the kinase activity of PKR by blocking it in protein synthesis and cell growth. This brings forward a possible relation of E2 and PKR through a mechanism via which HCV evades the antiviral effect of IFN.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>A hybrid in-silico and wet laboratory approach of motif prediction, evolutionary and structural anlysis has pointed out serine 75 and 277 of the HCV E2 gene as a promising candidate for the serine phosphorylation. It is proposed that serine phosphorylation of HCV E2 gene has a significant role in interferon resistance.</p

Serology based disease status of Pakistani population infected with Hepatitis B virus

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The infection rate of hepatitis B virus is continuously increasing in Pakistan. Therefore, a comprehensive study of epidemiological data is the need of time.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A total of 1300 individuals were screened for HBV infection markers including HBsAg, anti-HBsAg, HBeAg and anti-HBcAg. The association of these disease indicators was compared with patients' epidemiological characteristics like age, socio-economic status and residential area to analyze and find out the possible correlation among these variables and the patients disease status.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>52 (4%) individuals were found positive for HBsAg with mean age 23.5 ± 3.7 years. 9.30%, 33.47% and 12% individuals had HBeAg, antibodies for HBsAg, and antibodies for HBcAg respectively. HBsAg seropositivity rate was significantly associated (<it>p </it>= 0.03) with the residing locality indicating high infection in rural areas. Antibodies titer against HBsAg decreased with the increasing age reflecting an inverse correlation.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our results indicate high prevalence rate of Hepatitis B virus infection and nationwide vaccination campaigns along with public awareness and educational programs are needed to be practiced urgently.</p

Nucleotide identity and variability among different Pakistani hepatitis C virus isolates

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The variability within the hepatitis C virus (HCV) genome has formed the basis for several genotyping methods and used widely for HCV genotyping worldwide.</p> <p>Aim</p> <p>The aim of the present study was to determine percent nucleotide identity and variability in HCV isolates prevalent in different geographical regions of Pakistan.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Sequencing analysis of the 5'noncoding region (5'-NCR) of 100 HCV RNA-positive patients representing all the four provinces of Pakistan were carried out using ABI PRISM 3100 Genetic Analyzer.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The results showed that type 3 is the predominant genotypes circulating in Pakistan, with an overall prevalence of 50%. Types 1 and 4 viruses were 9% and 6% respectively. The overall nucleotide similarity among different Pakistani isolates was 92.50% ± 0.50%. Pakistani isolates from different areas showed 7.5% ± 0.50% nucleotide variability in 5'NCR region. The percent nucleotide identity (PNI) was 98.11% ± 0.50% within Pakistani type 1 sequences, 98.10% ± 0.60% for type 3 sequences, and 99.80% ± 0.20% for type 4 sequences. The PNI between different genotypes was 93.90% ± 0.20% for type 1 and type 3, 94.80% ± 0.12% for type 1 and type 4, and 94.40% ± 0.22% for type 3 and type 4.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Genotype 3 is the most prevalent HCV genotype in Pakistan. Minimum and maximum percent nucleotide divergences were noted between genotype 1 and 4 and 1 and 3 respectively.</p

Performance of the CMS Cathode Strip Chambers with Cosmic Rays

The Cathode Strip Chambers (CSCs) constitute the primary muon tracking device in the CMS endcaps. Their performance has been evaluated using data taken during a cosmic ray run in fall 2008. Measured noise levels are low, with the number of noisy channels well below 1%. Coordinate resolution was measured for all types of chambers, and fall in the range 47 microns to 243 microns. The efficiencies for local charged track triggers, for hit and for segments reconstruction were measured, and are above 99%. The timing resolution per layer is approximately 5 ns