A priori postulated and real power in cluster randomized trials: mind the gap

BACKGROUND: Cluster randomization design is increasingly used for the evaluation of health-care, screening or educational interventions. The intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) defines the clustering effect and be specified during planning. The aim of this work is to study the influence of the ICC on power in cluster randomized trials. METHODS: Power contour graphs were drawn to illustrate the loss in power induced by an underestimation of the ICC when planning trials. We also derived the maximum achievable power given a specified ICC. RESULTS: The magnitude of the ICC can have a major impact on power, and with low numbers of clusters, 80% power may not be achievable. CONCLUSION: Underestimating the ICC during planning cluster randomized trials can lead to a seriously underpowered trial. Publication of a priori postulated and a posteriori estimated ICCs is necessary for a more objective reading: negative trial results may be the consequence of a loss of power due to a mis-specification of the ICC

Design effect in multicenter studies: gain or loss of power?

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In a multicenter trial, responses for subjects belonging to a common center are correlated. Such a clustering is usually assessed through the design effect, defined as a ratio of two variances. The aim of this work was to describe and understand situations where the design effect involves a gain or a loss of power.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We developed a design effect formula for a multicenter study aimed at testing the effect of a binary factor (which thus defines two groups) on a continuous outcome, and explored this design effect for several designs (from individually stratified randomized trials to cluster randomized trials, and for other designs such as matched pair designs or observational multicenter studies).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The design effect depends on the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) (which assesses the correlation between data for two subjects from the same center) but also on a statistic <it>S</it>, which quantifies the heterogeneity of the group distributions among centers (thus the level of association between the binary factor and the center) and on the degree of global imbalance (the number of subjects are then different) between the two groups. This design effect may induce either a loss or a gain in power, depending on whether the <it>S </it>statistic is respectively higher or lower than 1.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>We provided a global design effect formula applying for any multicenter study and allowing identifying factors – the ICC and the distribution of the group proportions among centers – that are associated with a gain or a loss of power in such studies.</p

Declining Burden of Malaria Over two Decades in a Rural Community of Muheza District, North-Eastern Tanzania.

The recently reported declining burden of malaria in some African countries has been attributed to scaling-up of different interventions although in some areas, these changes started before implementation of major interventions. This study assessed the long-term trends of malaria burden for 20 years (1992--2012) in Magoda and for 15 years in Mpapayu village of Muheza district, north-eastern Tanzania, in relation to different interventions as well as changing national malaria control policies.\ud Repeated cross-sectional surveys recruited individuals aged 0 -- 19 years from the two villages whereby blood smears were collected for detection of malaria parasites by microscopy. Prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum infections and other indices of malaria burden (prevalence of anaemia, splenomegaly and gametocytes) were compared across the years and between the study villages. Major interventions deployed including mobile clinic, bed nets and other research activities, and changes in national malaria control policies were also marked. In Magoda, the prevalence of P. falciparum infections initially decreased between 1992 and 1996 (from 83.5 to 62.0%), stabilized between 1996 and 1997, and further declined to 34.4% in 2004. A temporary increase between 2004 and 2008 was followed by a progressive decline to 7.2% in 2012, which is more than 10-fold decrease since 1992. In Mpapayu (from 1998), the highest prevalence was 81.5% in 1999 and it decreased to 25% in 2004. After a slight increase in 2008, a steady decline followed, reaching <5% from 2011 onwards. Bed net usage was high in both villages from 1999 to 2004 (>=88%) but it decreased between 2008 and 2012 (range, 28% - 68%). After adjusting for the effects of bed nets, age, fever and year of study, the risk of P. falciparum infections decreased significantly by >=97% in both villages between 1999 and 2012 (p < 0.001). The prevalence of splenomegaly (>40% to <1%) and gametocytes (23% to <1%) also decreased in both villages.Discussion and conclusionsA remarkable decline in the burden of malaria occurred between 1992 and 2012 and the initial decline (1992 -- 2004) was most likely due to deployment of interventions, such as bed nets, and better services through research activities. Apart from changes of drug policies, the steady decline observed from 2008 occurred when bed net coverage was low suggesting that other factors contributed to the most recent pattern. These results suggest that continued monitoring is required to determine causes of the changing malaria epidemiology and also to monitor the progress towards maintaining low malaria transmission and reaching related millennium development goals

Head Position in Stroke Trial (HeadPoST)- sitting-up vs lying-flat positioning of patients with acute stroke: study protocol for a cluster randomised controlled trial

Background Positioning a patient lying-flat in the acute phase of ischaemic stroke may improve recovery and reduce disability, but such a possibility has not been formally tested in a randomised trial. We therefore initiated the Head Position in Stroke Trial (HeadPoST) to determine the effects of lying-flat (0°) compared with sitting-up (≥30°) head positioning in the first 24 hours of hospital admission for patients with acute stroke. Methods/Design We plan to conduct an international, cluster randomised, crossover, open, blinded outcome-assessed clinical trial involving 140 study hospitals (clusters) with established acute stroke care programs. Each hospital will be randomly assigned to sequential policies of lying-flat (0°) or sitting-up (≥30°) head position as a ‘business as usual’ stroke care policy during the first 24 hours of admittance. Each hospital is required to recruit 60 consecutive patients with acute ischaemic stroke (AIS), and all patients with acute intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH) (an estimated average of 10), in the first randomised head position policy before crossing over to the second head position policy with a similar recruitment target. After collection of in-hospital clinical and management data and 7-day outcomes, central trained blinded assessors will conduct a telephone disability assessment with the modified Rankin Scale at 90 days. The primary outcome for analysis is a shift (defined as improvement) in death or disability on this scale. For a cluster size of 60 patients with AIS per intervention and with various assumptions including an intracluster correlation coefficient of 0.03, a sample size of 16,800 patients at 140 centres will provide 90 % power (α 0.05) to detect at least a 16 % relative improvement (shift) in an ordinal logistic regression analysis of the primary outcome. The treatment effect will also be assessed in all patients with ICH who are recruited during each treatment study period. Discussion HeadPoST is a large international clinical trial in which we will rigorously evaluate the effects of different head positioning in patients with acute stroke. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT02162017 (date of registration: 27 April 2014); ANZCTR identifier: ACTRN12614000483651 (date of registration: 9 May 2014). Protocol version and date: version 2.2, 19 June 2014

Preliminary study: Treatment with intramuscular interferon beta-1a results in increased levels of IL-12Rβ2+ and decreased levels of IL23R+ CD4+ T - Lymphocytes in multiple sclerosis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>There are a lack of biomarkers which can be used to predict clinical outcomes for multiple sclerosis (MS) patients receiving interferon beta (IFN-β). Thus the objective of this study was to characterize changes in CD4+ T-lymphocyte expression in an unbiased manner following initiation of intramuscular (IM) IFN-β-1a treatment, and then to verify those findings using marker-specific assays.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Peripheral blood specimens were collected from twenty MS patients before and after treatment with intramuscular (IM) IFN-β-1a and were used for isolation of mononuclear cells (PBMCs). mRNA expression patterns of negatively-selected CD4+ T-cells from the PBMCs were analyzed using microarray gene expression technology. IL-12 and IL-23 receptor levels on PBMC-derived CD4+ T-cells were analyzed by flow cytometry. The phosphorylation status of Stat4 was measured by performing densitometry on western blots.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Microarray analyses demonstrated that mRNA expression of the IL-12Rβ2 gene was uniformly up-regulated in response to IFN-β-1a treatment and was associated with an increased number of IL-12Rβ2⁺CD4⁺T-cells by flow cytometry in 4 of 6 patients. This finding was substantiated by demonstrating that Stat4 phosphorylation, a transcription factor for IL-12, was increased after treatment. Conversely, the number of IL-23R⁺CD4⁺T-cells was decreased following treatment.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The IL-12 receptor shares a common subunit, the IL-12Rβ2, with the IL-23 receptor. Both of these receptors have a probable role in regulating IL-17 and TH-17 cells, important mediators of inflammation in multiple sclerosis (MS). Thus, the changes in the numbers of CD4⁺T-cells expressing these receptors in response to IFN-β-1a treatment may point to an important mechanism of action for this drug, but further large scale studies are needed to confirm these preliminary observations.</p

Effect of Hydrogen Peroxide on Immersion Challenge of Rainbow Trout Fry with Flavobacterium psychrophilum

An experimental model for immersion challenge of rainbow trout fry (Oncorhynchus mykiss) with Flavobacterium psychrophilum, the causative agent of rainbow trout fry syndrome and bacterial cold water disease was established in the present study. Although injection-based infection models are reliable and produce high levels of mortality attempts to establish a reproducible immersion model have been less successful. Various concentrations of hydrogen peroxide (H₂O₂) were evaluated before being used as a pre-treatment stressor prior to immersion exposure to F. psychrophilum. H₂O₂ accelerated the onset of mortality and increased mortality approximately two-fold; from 9.1% to 19.2% and from 14.7% to 30.3% in two separate experiments. Clinical signs observed in the infected fish corresponded to symptoms characteristically seen during natural outbreaks. These findings indicate that pre-treatment with H₂O₂ can increase the level of mortality in rainbow trout fry after exposure to F. psychrophilum

Midgut microbiota of the malaria mosquito vector Anopheles gambiae and Interactions with plasmodium falciparum Infection

The susceptibility of Anopheles mosquitoes to Plasmodium infections relies on complex interactions between the insect vector and the malaria parasite. A number of studies have shown that the mosquito innate immune responses play an important role in controlling the malaria infection and that the strength of parasite clearance is under genetic control, but little is known about the influence of environmental factors on the transmission success. We present here evidence that the composition of the vector gut microbiota is one of the major components that determine the outcome of mosquito infections. A. gambiae mosquitoes collected in natural breeding sites from Cameroon were experimentally challenged with a wild P. falciparum isolate, and their gut bacterial content was submitted for pyrosequencing analysis. The meta-taxogenomic approach revealed a broader richness of the midgut bacterial flora than previously described. Unexpectedly, the majority of bacterial species were found in only a small proportion of mosquitoes, and only 20 genera were shared by 80% of individuals. We show that observed differences in gut bacterial flora of adult mosquitoes is a result of breeding in distinct sites, suggesting that the native aquatic source where larvae were grown determines the composition of the midgut microbiota. Importantly, the abundance of Enterobacteriaceae in the mosquito midgut correlates significantly with the Plasmodium infection status. This striking relationship highlights the role of natural gut environment in parasite transmission. Deciphering microbe-pathogen interactions offers new perspectives to control disease transmission.Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement (IRD); French Agence Nationale pour la Recherche [ANR-11-BSV7-009-01]; European Community [242095, 223601]info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Resolving the ancestry of Austronesian-speaking populations

There are two very different interpretations of the prehistory of Island Southeast Asia (ISEA), with genetic evidence invoked in support of both. The “out-of-Taiwan” model proposes a major Late Holocene expansion of Neolithic Austronesian speakers from Taiwan. An alternative, proposing that Late Glacial/postglacial sea-level rises triggered largely autochthonous dispersals, accounts for some otherwise enigmatic genetic patterns, but fails to explain the Austronesian language dispersal. Combining mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA), Y-chromosome and genome-wide data, we performed the most comprehensive analysis of the region to date, obtaining highly consistent results across all three systems and allowing us to reconcile the models. We infer a primarily common ancestry for Taiwan/ISEA populations established before the Neolithic, but also detected clear signals of two minor Late Holocene migrations, probably representing Neolithic input from both Mainland Southeast Asia and South China, via Taiwan. This latter may therefore have mediated the Austronesian language dispersal, implying small-scale migration and language shift rather than large-scale expansion