Modeling soil water dynamics considering measurement uncertainty

In shallow water table controlled environments, surface water management impacts groundwater table levels and soil water dynamics. The study goal was to simulate soil water dynamics in response to canal stage raises considering uncertainty in measured soil water content. WAVE (Water and Agrochemicals in the soil, crop and Vadose Environment) was applied to simulate unsaturated flow above a shallow aquifer. Global sensitivity analysis was performed to identify model input factors with greatest influence on predicted soil water content. Nash-Sutcliffe increased and Root Mean Square Error reduced when uncertainties in measured data were considered in goodness-of-fit calculations using measurement probability distributions and probable asymmetric error boundaries; implying that appropriate model performance evaluation should be done using uncertainty ranges instead of single values. Although uncertainty in the experimental measured data limited evaluation of the absolute predictions by the model, WAVE was found a useful exploratory tool for estimating temporal variation in soil water content. Visual analysis of soil water content time series under proposed changes in canal stage management indicated that sites with land surface elevation of less than 2.0 m NGVD29 were predicted to periodically experience saturated conditions in the root zone and shortening of the growing season if canal stage is raised more than 9 cm and maintained at this level. The models developed could be combined with high resolution digital elevation models in future studies to identify areas with the greatest risk of experiencing saturated root zone. The study also highlighted the need to incorporate measurement uncertainty when evaluating performance of unsaturated flow models

Sensitivity analysis and parameter estimation for an approximate analytical model of canal-aquifer interaction applied in the C-111 basin

The goal of this study was to better characterize parameters influencing the exchange of surface water in south Florida’s C-111 canal and Biscayne aquifer using the analytical model STWT1. A three-step model evaluation framework was implemented as follows: (1) qualitative parameter ranking by comparing two Morris method sampling strategies, (2) quantitative variance-based sensitivity analysis using Sobol’s method, and (3) estimation of parameter posterior probability distributions and statistics using the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimator (GLUE) methodology. Results indicated that the original Morris random sampling method underestimated total parameter effects compared to the improved global Morris sampling strategy. However, parameter rankings from the two sampling methods were similar. For the STWT1 model, only four out of the six parameters analyzed were important for predicting water table response to canal stage and recharge fluctuations. Morris ranking in order of decreasing importance resulted in specific yield (ASY), aquifer saturated thickness (AB), horizontal hydraulic conductivity (AKX), canal leakance (XAA), vertical hydraulic conductivity (AKZ), and half-width of canal (XZERO). Sobol’s sensitivity indices for the four most critical parameters revealed that summation of first-order parameter effects was 1.0, indicating that STWT1 behaved as an additive model or negligible parameter interactions. We estimated parameter values of 0.07 to 0.14 for ASY, 11,000 to 14,300 m d-1 for AKX, 13.4 to 18.3 m for AB, and 99.8 to 279 m for XAA. The estimated values were within the range of values estimated using more complex methods at nearby sites. The Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency and root mean square error for estimated parameters ranged from 0.66 to 0.95 and from 4 to 7 cm, respectively. This study demonstrates a simple and inexpensive way to characterize hydrogeological parameters controlling groundwater-surface interactions in any region with aquifers that are highly permeable without using standard pumping tests or canal drawdown experiments. Hydrogeological parameters estimated using this approach could be used as starting values in large-scale numerical simulations

Dynamic factor analysis of surface water management impacts on soil and bedrock water contents in Southern Florida Lowlands

As part of the C111 spreader canal project, structural and operational modifications involving incremental raises in canal stage are planned along one of the major canals (i.e., C111) separating Everglades National Park and agricultural production areas to the east of the park. This study used Dynamic Factor Analysis (DFA) as an alternative tool to physically based models to explore the relationship between different hydrologic variables and the effect of proposed changes in surface water management on soil and bedrock water contents in south Florida. To achieve the goal, objectives were to: (1) use DFA to identify the most important factors affecting temporal variation in soil and bedrock water contents, (2) develop a simplified DFA based regression model for predicting soil and bedrock water contents as a function of canal stage and (3) assess the effect of the proposed incremental raises in canal stage on soil and bedrock water contents. DFA revealed that 5 common trends were the minimum required to describe unexplained variation in the 11 time series studied. Introducing canal stage, water table evaporation and net recharge resulted in lower Akaike information criterion (AIC) and higher Nash-Sutcliffe (C[subscript eff]) values. Results indicated that canal stage significantly (t > 2) drives temporal variation in soil and bedrock water contents, which was represented as scaled frequency while net surface recharge was significant in 7 out of the 11 time series analyzed. The effect of water table evaporation was not significant at all sites. Results also indicated that the most important factor influencing temporal variation in soil and bedrock water contents in terms of regression coefficient magnitude was canal stage. Based on DFA results, a simple regression model was developed to predict soil and bedrock water contents at various elevations as a function of canal stage and net recharge. The performance of the simple model ranged from good (C[subscript eff] ranging from 0.56 to 0.74) to poor (C[subscript eff] ranging from 0.10 to 0.15), performance was better at sites with smaller depths to water table (< 1 m) highlighting the effect of micro-topography on soil and bedrock water content dynamics. Assessment of the effect of 6, 9 and 12 cm increases in canal stage using the simple regression model indicated that changes in temporal variation in soil and bedrock water contents were negligible (average<1.0% average change) at 500 to 2000 m from C111 (or low elevations) which may be attributed to the near saturation conditions already occurring at these sites. This study used DFA to explore the relationship between soil and bedrock water dynamics and surface water stage in shallow water table environments. This approach can be applied to any system in which detailed physical modeling would be limited by inadequate information on parameters or processes governing the physical system

Simulating water table response to proposed changes in surface water management in the C-111 agricultural basin of south Florida

As part of an effort to restore the hydrology of Everglades National Park (ENP), incremental raises in canal stage are proposed along a major canal draining south Florida called C-111, which separates ENP from agricultural lands. The study purpose was to use monitoring and modeling to investigate the effect of the proposed incremental raises in canal stage on water table elevation in agricultural lands. The objectives were to: (1) develop a MODFLOW based model for simulating groundwater flow within the study area, (2) apply the developed model to determine if the proposed changes in canal stage result in significant changes in water table elevation, root zone saturation or groundwater flooding and (3) assess aquifer response to large rainfall events. Results indicate the developed model was able to reproduce measured water table elevation with an average Nash-Sutcliffe > 0.9 and Root Mean Square Error 2 year return period storm), reduced water table intrusion into the root zone. We conclude that the impact of operational changes in canal stage management on root zone saturation and groundwater flooding depended on micro-topography within the field and depth of storm events. The findings of this study can be used in fine tuning canal stage operations to minimize root zone saturation and groundwater flooding of agricultural fields while maximizing environmental benefits through increased water flow in the natural wetland areas. This study also highlights the benefit of detailed field scale simulations

Water Quality Trends at Inflows to Everglades National Park, 1977–2005

Restoration of the Florida Everglades is important for the health of the natural system, including both the &quot;River of Grass&quot; and its downstream estuaries. Water quality improvement is one indicator of successful restoration in this complex ecosystem. Using the period of record of 1977 through 2005, we evaluated data from seven infl ow sites to the Everglades National Park (ENP) for temporal trends of various forms of phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N) and analyzed them using principal component analysis and factor analysis without fl ow adjustments. Locally estimated scatter plot smoothing (LOESS) trend lines identifi ed two infl ection points (three time periods) of changing trend in total P (TP) concentration at the seven sites. Results indicated that overall water quality in ENP infl ow improved from 1977 to 2005, with signifi cant downward trends in TP concentration. Th e overall trend of TP is probably mediated by hydrology, which is evident by a negative relationship between fl ow and annual average TP concentration at the majority of stations within the available data, although additional changes in vegetation due to hydroperiod may have some eff ects. Total N (TN), total Kjeldahl N, and total organic N concentrations also generally decreased at infl ow sites. Water quality standards for TP, TN, and NH 4 + -N were exceeded at selected sites during the study period. Principle component analysis and factor analysis detected a grouping of sampling sites related to the water delivery system that could be used as indicators to better manage monitoring resources. Study results suggest that water quality data analyses could provide additional insight into the success of a restoration management plan and on how monitoring may be modifi ed for more effi cient use of resources

Prenylation inhibitors stimulate both estrogen receptor α transcriptional activity through AF-1 and AF-2 and estrogen receptor β transcriptional activity

INTRODUCTION: We showed in a previous study that prenylated proteins play a role in estradiol stimulation of proliferation. However, these proteins antagonize the ability of estrogen receptor (ER) α to stimulate estrogen response element (ERE)-dependent transcriptional activity, potentially through the formation of a co-regulator complex. The present study investigates, in further detail, how prenylated proteins modulate the transcriptional activities mediated by ERα and by ERβ. METHODS: The ERE-β-globin-Luc-SV-Neo plasmid was either stably transfected into MCF-7 cells or HeLa cells (MELN cells and HELN cells, respectively) or transiently transfected into MCF-7 cells using polyethylenimine. Cells deprived of estradiol were analyzed for ERE-dependent luciferase activity 16 hours after estradiol stimulation and treatment with FTI-277 (a farnesyltransferase inhibitor) or with GGTI-298 (a geranylgeranyltransferase I inhibitor). In HELN cells, the effect of prenyltransferase inhibitors on luciferase activity was compared after transient transfection of plasmids coding either the full-length ERα, the full-length ERβ, the AF-1-deleted ERα or the AF-2-deleted ERα. The presence of ERα was then detected by immunocytochemistry in either the nuclei or the cytoplasms of MCF-7 cells. Finally, Clostridium botulinum C3 exoenzyme treatment was used to determine the involvement of Rho proteins in ERE-dependent luciferase activity. RESULTS: FTI-277 and GGTI-298 only stimulate ERE-dependent luciferase activity in stably transfected MCF-7 cells. They stimulate both ERα-mediated and ERβ-mediated ERE-dependent luciferase activity in HELN cells, in the presence of and in the absence of estradiol. The roles of both AF-1 and AF-2 are significant in this effect. Nuclear ERα is decreased in the presence of prenyltransferase inhibitors in MCF-7 cells, again in the presence of and in the absence of estradiol. By contrast, cytoplasmic ERα is mainly decreased after treatment with FTI-277, in the presence of and in the absence of estradiol. The involvement of Rho proteins in ERE-dependent luciferase activity in MELN cells is clearly established. CONCLUSIONS: Together, these results demonstrate that prenylated proteins (at least RhoA, RhoB and/or RhoC) antagonize the ability of ERα and ERβ to stimulate ERE-dependent transcriptional activity, potentially acting through both AF-1 and AF-2 transcriptional activities

Planck intermediate results. XXIX. All-sky dust modelling with Planck, IRAS, and WISE observations

We present all-sky modelling of the high resolution Planck, IRAS, and WISE infrared (IR) observations using the physical dust model presented by Draine and Li in 2007 (DL). We study the performance and results of this model, and discuss implications for future dust modelling. The present work extends the DL dust modelling carried out on nearby galaxies using Herschel and Spitzer data to Galactic dust emission. We employ the DL dust model to generate maps of the dust mass surface density, the optical extinction Av, and the starlight intensity parametrized by Umin. The DL model reproduces the observed spectral energy distribution (SED) satisfactorily over most of the sky, with small deviations in the inner Galactic disk and in low ecliptic latitude areas. We compare the DL optical extinction Av for the diffuse interstellar medium with optical estimates for 2 10^5 quasi-stellar objects (QSOs) observed in the Sloan digital sky survey. The DL Av estimates are larger than those determined towards QSOs by a factor of about 2, which depends on Umin. The DL fitting parameter Umin, effectively determined by the wavelength where the SED peaks, appears to trace variations in the far-IR opacity of the dust grains per unit Av, and not only in the starlight intensity. To circumvent the model deficiency, we propose an empirical renormalization of the DL Av estimate, dependent of Umin, which compensates for the systematic differences found with QSO observations. This renormalization also brings into agreement the DL Av estimates with those derived for molecular clouds from the near-IR colours of stars in the 2 micron all sky survey. The DL model and the QSOs data are used to compress the spectral information in the Planck and IRAS observations for the diffuse ISM to a family of 20 SEDs normalized per Av, parameterized by Umin, which may be used to test and empirically calibrate dust models.Comment: Final version that has appeared in A&

p27(Kip1 )is expressed in proliferating cells in its form phosphorylated on threonine 187

BACKGROUND: G1/S cell cycle progression requires p27(Kip1 )(p27) proteolysis, which is triggered by its phosphorylation on threonine (Thr) 187. Since its levels are abundant in quiescent and scarce in cycling cells, p27 is an approved marker for quiescent cells, extensively used in histopathology and cancer research. METHODS: However here we showed that by using a specific phosphorylation site (pThr187) antibody, p27 is detectable also in proliferative compartments of normal, dysplastic and neoplastic tissues. RESULTS: In fact, whereas un-phosphorylated p27 and MIB-1 showed a significant inverse correlation (Spearman R = -0.55; p < 0,001), pThr187-p27 was positively and significantly correlated with MIB-1 expression (Spearman R = 0.88; p < 0,001). Thus proliferating cells only stain for pThr187-p27, whereas they are un-reactive with the regular p27 antibodies. However increasing the sensitivity of the immunocytochemistry (ICH) by the use of an ultra sensitive detection system based on tiramide signal amplification, simultaneous expression and colocalisation of both forms of p27 was shown in proliferating compartments nuclei by double immunofluorescence and laser scanning confocal microscopy studies. CONCLUSION: Overall, our data suggest that p27 expression also occurs in proliferating cells compartments and the combined use of both regular and phospho- p27 antibodies is suggested

Hunt for new phenomena using large jet multiplicities and missing transverse momentum with ATLAS in 4.7 fb−1 of s√=7TeV proton-proton collisions

Results are presented of a search for new particles decaying to large numbers of jets in association with missing transverse momentum, using 4.7 fb−1 of pp collision data at s√=7TeV collected by the ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider in 2011. The event selection requires missing transverse momentum, no isolated electrons or muons, and from ≥6 to ≥9 jets. No evidence is found for physics beyond the Standard Model. The results are interpreted in the context of a MSUGRA/CMSSM supersymmetric model, where, for large universal scalar mass m 0, gluino masses smaller than 840 GeV are excluded at the 95% confidence level, extending previously published limits. Within a simplified model containing only a gluino octet and a neutralino, gluino masses smaller than 870 GeV are similarly excluded for neutralino masses below 100 GeV