One-Up On L1: Can X-rays Provide Longer Advanced Warning of Solar Wind Flux Enhancements Than Upstream Monitors?

Observations of strong solar wind proton flux correlations with ROSAT X-ray rates along with high spectral resolution Chandra observations of X-rays from the dark Moon show that soft X-ray emission mirrors the behavior of the solar wind. In this paper, based on an analysis of an X-ray event observed by XMM-Newton resulting from charge exchange of high charge state solar wind ions and contemporaneous neutral solar wind data, we argue that X-ray observations may be able to provide reliable advance warning, perhaps by as much as half a day, of dramatic increases in solar wind flux at Earth. Like neutral atom imaging, this provides the capability to monitor the solar wind remotely rather than in-situ.Comment: in press in Adv. Space Research, 7 pages, 6 eps figures, resolution reduced for Astro-ph submission, see http://lena.gsfc.nasa.gov for full versio

Double-slit interference pattern from single-slit screen and its gravitational analogues

The double slit experiment (DSE) is known as an important cornerstone in the foundations of physical theories such as Quantum Mechanics and Special Relativity. A large number of different variants of it were designed and performed over the years. We perform and discuss here a new verion with the somewhat unexpected results of obtaining interference pattern from single-slit screen. This outcome, which shows that the routes of the photons through the array were changed, leads one to discuss it, using the equivalence principle, in terms of geodesics mechanics. We show using either the Brill's version of the canonical formulation of general relativity or the linearized version of it that one may find corresponding and analogous situations in the framework of general relativity.Comment: 51 pages, 12 Figures five of them contain two subfigures and thus the number of figures is 17, 1 Table. Some minor changes introduced, especially, in the reference

Mars Express/ASPERA-3/NPI and IMAGE/LENA observations of energetic neutral atoms in Earth and Mars orbit

The low energy neutral atom imagers on Mars Express and IMAGE have revealed that the neutral atom populations in interplanetary space come from a variety of sources and challenge our current understanding of heliospheric physics. For example, both in cruise phase and at Mars, the neutral particle instrument NPD on Mars Express observed "unexplained neutral beams" unrelated to Mars which appear to be either of heliospheric or solar wind origin. Likewise, the NPI instrument on Mars Express has revealed streams of neutral atoms with different properties than those observed by NPD. Independently, IMAGE/LENA has reported neutral atom observations that may be interpreted as a "secondary stream" having different characteristics and flowing from a higher ecliptic longitude than the nominal upstream direction. Both sets of observations do not appear to fit in easily with the neutral atom environment from 1.0-1.57 AU as it is currently understood. In this paper we examine some highly suggestive similarities in the IMAGE/LENA and Mars Express/ASPERA-3/NPI data to try to determine potential origins for the observed signal.Comment: in press Adv. Sp. Res., 15 pages, 9 figure

OPTIMIST: A new conflict resolution algorithm for ACT-R.

Several studies have suggested recently that a more dynamic conflict resolution mechanism in the ACT-R cognitive architecture (Anderson & Lebiere, 1998) could improve the decision-making behaviour of cognitive models. This part of ACT-R theory is revisited and a new solution is proposed. The new algorithm (OPTIMIST) has been implemented as an overlay to the ACT-R architecture, and can be used as an alternative mechanism. The operation of the new algorithm is tested in a model of the classical Yerkes and Dodson experiement of animals' learning. When OPTIMIST is used, the resulting model fits the data better than the previous model (e.g. R2 (R squared) increases from .85 to .93 in one example)

The Scientific Foundations of Forecasting Magnetospheric Space Weather

The magnetosphere is the lens through which solar space weather phenomena are focused and directed towards the Earth. In particular, the non-linear interaction of the solar wind with the Earth's magnetic field leads to the formation of highly inhomogenous electrical currents in the ionosphere which can ultimately result in damage to and problems with the operation of power distribution networks. Since electric power is the fundamental cornerstone of modern life, the interruption of power is the primary pathway by which space weather has impact on human activity and technology. Consequently, in the context of space weather, it is the ability to predict geomagnetic activity that is of key importance. This is usually stated in terms of geomagnetic storms, but we argue that in fact it is the substorm phenomenon which contains the crucial physics, and therefore prediction of substorm occurrence, severity and duration, either within the context of a longer-lasting geomagnetic storm, but potentially also as an isolated event, is of critical importance. Here we review the physics of the magnetosphere in the frame of space weather forecasting, focusing on recent results, current understanding, and an assessment of probable future developments.Peer reviewe

Coupled stalagmite – Alluvial fan response to the 8.2 ka event and early Holocene palaeoclimate change in Greece

We explore the expression of early Holocene climatic change in the terrestrial Mediterranean of southern Greece. A regional palaeoclimate record from stable isotope and trace element geochemical proxies in an early Holocene (~12.4 ka to 6.7 ka) stalagmite is compared to the timing of palaeosol (entisol) development on an early Holocene alluvial fan located <100 km from the stalagmite site. Radiocarbon dated entisol development records fan abandonment surfaces, which can be coupled to the stalagmite climate signal. Variations in δ13C best record the main elements of palaeoclimatic change, more negative values indicating soil carbon input to karst groundwater under wetter conditions. The wettest conditions begin around 10.3 ka, coincident with the start of sapropel 1 deposition in the eastern Mediterranean. The widely documented northern hemisphere ‘8.2 ka event’ of cooler and drier conditions has a muted δ18O climatic signal in common with other stalagmite climate records from the wider Mediterranean. However, less negative δ13C values do record a period of episodic dryness between ~8.8 and ending at 8.2 ka. Wetter conditions re-established after 8.1 ka to the end of the record. The oldest alluvial fan entisols were developing by ~9.5 ka, and a prominent rubified entisol developed ~8.3 to 8.4 ka, indicating pedogenesis within dating error of the 8.2 ka event. The speleothem record of episodic dryness between ~8.8 and 8.2 ka, combined with other regional proxies, is consistent with the notion that precipitation patterns in Greece may have changed from predominantly winter frontal to summer convective during this period. Palaeosol formation on the alluvial fan may have been an allocyclic response to this change. It is plausible that fan-channel incision, driven by temporary development of a ‘flashier’ summer rainfall regime, isolated large areas of the fan surface allowing onset of prolonged pedogenesis there

Global maps of soil temperature

Research in global change ecology relies heavily on global climatic grids derived from estimates of air temperature in open areas at around 2 m above the ground. These climatic grids do not reflect conditions below vegetation canopies and near the ground surface, where critical ecosystem functions occur and most terrestrial species reside. Here, we provide global maps of soil temperature and bioclimatic variables at a 1-km resolution for 0-5 and 5-15 cm soil depth. These maps were created by calculating the difference (i.e. offset) between in situ soil temperature measurements, based on time series from over 1200 1-km pixels (summarized from 8519 unique temperature sensors) across all the world's major terrestrial biomes, and coarse-grained air temperature estimates from ERA5-Land (an atmospheric reanalysis by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). We show that mean annual soil temperature differs markedly from the corresponding gridded air temperature, by up to 10°C (mean = 3.0 ± 2.1°C), with substantial variation across biomes and seasons. Over the year, soils in cold and/or dry biomes are substantially warmer (+3.6 ± 2.3°C) than gridded air temperature, whereas soils in warm and humid environments are on average slightly cooler (−0.7 ± 2.3°C). The observed substantial and biome-specific offsets emphasize that the projected impacts of climate and climate change on near-surface biodiversity and ecosystem functioning are inaccurately assessed when air rather than soil temperature is used, especially in cold environments. The global soil-related bioclimatic variables provided here are an important step forward for any application in ecology and related disciplines. Nevertheless, we highlight the need to fill remaining geographic gaps by collecting more in situ measurements of microclimate conditions to further enhance the spatiotemporal resolution of global soil temperature products for ecological applications

Global maps of soil temperature.

Research in global change ecology relies heavily on global climatic grids derived from estimates of air temperature in open areas at around 2 m above the ground. These climatic grids do not reflect conditions below vegetation canopies and near the ground surface, where critical ecosystem functions occur and most terrestrial species reside. Here, we provide global maps of soil temperature and bioclimatic variables at a 1-km &lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt; resolution for 0-5 and 5-15 cm soil depth. These maps were created by calculating the difference (i.e. offset) between in situ soil temperature measurements, based on time series from over 1200 1-km &lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt; pixels (summarized from 8519 unique temperature sensors) across all the world's major terrestrial biomes, and coarse-grained air temperature estimates from ERA5-Land (an atmospheric reanalysis by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). We show that mean annual soil temperature differs markedly from the corresponding gridded air temperature, by up to 10°C (mean = 3.0 ± 2.1°C), with substantial variation across biomes and seasons. Over the year, soils in cold and/or dry biomes are substantially warmer (+3.6 ± 2.3°C) than gridded air temperature, whereas soils in warm and humid environments are on average slightly cooler (-0.7 ± 2.3°C). The observed substantial and biome-specific offsets emphasize that the projected impacts of climate and climate change on near-surface biodiversity and ecosystem functioning are inaccurately assessed when air rather than soil temperature is used, especially in cold environments. The global soil-related bioclimatic variables provided here are an important step forward for any application in ecology and related disciplines. Nevertheless, we highlight the need to fill remaining geographic gaps by collecting more in situ measurements of microclimate conditions to further enhance the spatiotemporal resolution of global soil temperature products for ecological applications