Why Are Outcomes Different for Registry Patients Enrolled Prospectively and Retrospectively? Insights from the Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF).

Background: Retrospective and prospective observational studies are designed to reflect real-world evidence on clinical practice, but can yield conflicting results. The GARFIELD-AF Registry includes both methods of enrolment and allows analysis of differences in patient characteristics and outcomes that may result. Methods and Results: Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and ≥1 risk factor for stroke at diagnosis of AF were recruited either retrospectively (n = 5069) or prospectively (n = 5501) from 19 countries and then followed prospectively. The retrospectively enrolled cohort comprised patients with established AF (for a least 6, and up to 24 months before enrolment), who were identified retrospectively (and baseline and partial follow-up data were collected from the emedical records) and then followed prospectively between 0-18 months (such that the total time of follow-up was 24 months; data collection Dec-2009 and Oct-2010). In the prospectively enrolled cohort, patients with newly diagnosed AF (≤6 weeks after diagnosis) were recruited between Mar-2010 and Oct-2011 and were followed for 24 months after enrolment. Differences between the cohorts were observed in clinical characteristics, including type of AF, stroke prevention strategies, and event rates. More patients in the retrospectively identified cohort received vitamin K antagonists (62.1% vs. 53.2%) and fewer received non-vitamin K oral anticoagulants (1.8% vs . 4.2%). All-cause mortality rates per 100 person-years during the prospective follow-up (starting the first study visit up to 1 year) were significantly lower in the retrospective than prospectively identified cohort (3.04 [95% CI 2.51 to 3.67] vs . 4.05 [95% CI 3.53 to 4.63]; p = 0.016). Conclusions: Interpretations of data from registries that aim to evaluate the characteristics and outcomes of patients with AF must take account of differences in registry design and the impact of recall bias and survivorship bias that is incurred with retrospective enrolment. Clinical Trial Registration: - URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier for GARFIELD-AF (NCT01090362)

Improved risk stratification of patients with atrial fibrillation: an integrated GARFIELD-AF tool for the prediction of mortality, stroke and bleed in patients with and without anticoagulation.

OBJECTIVES: To provide an accurate, web-based tool for stratifying patients with atrial fibrillation to facilitate decisions on the potential benefits/risks of anticoagulation, based on mortality, stroke and bleeding risks. DESIGN: The new tool was developed, using stepwise regression, for all and then applied to lower risk patients. C-statistics were compared with CHA2DS2-VASc using 30-fold cross-validation to control for overfitting. External validation was undertaken in an independent dataset, Outcome Registry for Better Informed Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation (ORBIT-AF). PARTICIPANTS: Data from 39 898 patients enrolled in the prospective GARFIELD-AF registry provided the basis for deriving and validating an integrated risk tool to predict stroke risk, mortality and bleeding risk. RESULTS: The discriminatory value of the GARFIELD-AF risk model was superior to CHA2DS2-VASc for patients with or without anticoagulation. C-statistics (95% CI) for all-cause mortality, ischaemic stroke/systemic embolism and haemorrhagic stroke/major bleeding (treated patients) were: 0.77 (0.76 to 0.78), 0.69 (0.67 to 0.71) and 0.66 (0.62 to 0.69), respectively, for the GARFIELD-AF risk models, and 0.66 (0.64-0.67), 0.64 (0.61-0.66) and 0.64 (0.61-0.68), respectively, for CHA2DS2-VASc (or HAS-BLED for bleeding). In very low to low risk patients (CHA2DS2-VASc 0 or 1 (men) and 1 or 2 (women)), the CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED (for bleeding) scores offered weak discriminatory value for mortality, stroke/systemic embolism and major bleeding. C-statistics for the GARFIELD-AF risk tool were 0.69 (0.64 to 0.75), 0.65 (0.56 to 0.73) and 0.60 (0.47 to 0.73) for each end point, respectively, versus 0.50 (0.45 to 0.55), 0.59 (0.50 to 0.67) and 0.55 (0.53 to 0.56) for CHA2DS2-VASc (or HAS-BLED for bleeding). Upon validation in the ORBIT-AF population, C-statistics showed that the GARFIELD-AF risk tool was effective for predicting 1-year all-cause mortality using the full and simplified model for all-cause mortality: C-statistics 0.75 (0.73 to 0.77) and 0.75 (0.73 to 0.77), respectively, and for predicting for any stroke or systemic embolism over 1 year, C-statistics 0.68 (0.62 to 0.74). CONCLUSIONS: Performance of the GARFIELD-AF risk tool was superior to CHA2DS2-VASc in predicting stroke and mortality and superior to HAS-BLED for bleeding, overall and in lower risk patients. The GARFIELD-AF tool has the potential for incorporation in routine electronic systems, and for the first time, permits simultaneous evaluation of ischaemic stroke, mortality and bleeding risks. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier for GARFIELD-AF (NCT01090362) and for ORBIT-AF (NCT01165710)

Two-year outcomes of patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation: results from GARFIELD-AF.

AIMS: The relationship between outcomes and time after diagnosis for patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) is poorly defined, especially beyond the first year. METHODS AND RESULTS: GARFIELD-AF is an ongoing, global observational study of adults with newly diagnosed NVAF. Two-year outcomes of 17 162 patients prospectively enrolled in GARFIELD-AF were analysed in light of baseline characteristics, risk profiles for stroke/systemic embolism (SE), and antithrombotic therapy. The mean (standard deviation) age was 69.8 (11.4) years, 43.8% were women, and the mean CHA2DS2-VASc score was 3.3 (1.6); 60.8% of patients were prescribed anticoagulant therapy with/without antiplatelet (AP) therapy, 27.4% AP monotherapy, and 11.8% no antithrombotic therapy. At 2-year follow-up, all-cause mortality, stroke/SE, and major bleeding had occurred at a rate (95% confidence interval) of 3.83 (3.62; 4.05), 1.25 (1.13; 1.38), and 0.70 (0.62; 0.81) per 100 person-years, respectively. Rates for all three major events were highest during the first 4 months. Congestive heart failure, acute coronary syndromes, sudden/unwitnessed death, malignancy, respiratory failure, and infection/sepsis accounted for 65% of all known causes of death and strokes for <10%. Anticoagulant treatment was associated with a 35% lower risk of death. CONCLUSION: The most frequent of the three major outcome measures was death, whose most common causes are not known to be significantly influenced by anticoagulation. This suggests that a more comprehensive approach to the management of NVAF may be needed to improve outcome. This could include, in addition to anticoagulation, interventions targeting modifiable, cause-specific risk factors for death. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01090362

Risk profiles and one-year outcomes of patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation in India: Insights from the GARFIELD-AF Registry.

BACKGROUND: The Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF) is an ongoing prospective noninterventional registry, which is providing important information on the baseline characteristics, treatment patterns, and 1-year outcomes in patients with newly diagnosed non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). This report describes data from Indian patients recruited in this registry. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 52,014 patients with newly diagnosed AF were enrolled globally; of these, 1388 patients were recruited from 26 sites within India (2012-2016). In India, the mean age was 65.8 years at diagnosis of NVAF. Hypertension was the most prevalent risk factor for AF, present in 68.5% of patients from India and in 76.3% of patients globally (P < 0.001). Diabetes and coronary artery disease (CAD) were prevalent in 36.2% and 28.1% of patients as compared with global prevalence of 22.2% and 21.6%, respectively (P < 0.001 for both). Antiplatelet therapy was the most common antithrombotic treatment in India. With increasing stroke risk, however, patients were more likely to receive oral anticoagulant therapy [mainly vitamin K antagonist (VKA)], but average international normalized ratio (INR) was lower among Indian patients [median INR value 1.6 (interquartile range {IQR}: 1.3-2.3) versus 2.3 (IQR 1.8-2.8) (P < 0.001)]. Compared with other countries, patients from India had markedly higher rates of all-cause mortality [7.68 per 100 person-years (95% confidence interval 6.32-9.35) vs 4.34 (4.16-4.53), P < 0.0001], while rates of stroke/systemic embolism and major bleeding were lower after 1 year of follow-up. CONCLUSION: Compared to previously published registries from India, the GARFIELD-AF registry describes clinical profiles and outcomes in Indian patients with AF of a different etiology. The registry data show that compared to the rest of the world, Indian AF patients are younger in age and have more diabetes and CAD. Patients with a higher stroke risk are more likely to receive anticoagulation therapy with VKA but are underdosed compared with the global average in the GARFIELD-AF. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION-URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01090362

Prognostic value of preoperative border-zone (Watershed) infarcts on the early postoperative outcomes of carotid endarterectomy after acute ischemic stroke

Objectives: To evaluate the prognostic value of cerebral border-zone infarctions (watershed infarctions) on the early postoperative outcomes of patients undergoing carotid endarterectomy (CEA) after acute ischemic stroke (AIS). Methods: Sixty-six (66) patients with symptomatic carotid stenosis (SCS) that underwent ipsilateral CEA after AIS from January 2007 to March 2012 were included in this study. They were divided into two groups according to the topographic patterns of the stroke: group 1, Territorial Cerebral Ischemic Strokes (TCIS) caused by emboli of carotid origin; group 2, cerebral border-zone infarctions (CBZI) related to an SCS associated with hemodynamic impairment. All data was collected in a prospective database and analyzed. Outcome measures included postoperative neurological morbidity and 30-day mortality. Results: Forty-three (43) patients (65.15%) experienced TCIS and were included in group 1, 23 patients (34.85%) had a CBZI and were included in group 2. There were no postoperative deaths. The postoperative neurologic morbidity rate was significantly higher in the CBZI group (22% vs. 2%, p = 0.02). Multivariate analysis demonstrates that CBZI was the only independent predictive factor of neurologic morbidity after CEA for AIS related to an SCS. Furthermore, the risk of postoperative neurologic morbidity remained significantly higher for patients with CBZI after adjustement for age, sex, initial NHISS scores, and associated contralateral carotid occlusion (HR: 0.059, 95% CI 0.004-0.85; p = 0.03). Conclusion: CBZIs, compared to TCIS, were associated with a higher neurological complication rate during the postoperative period after CEA for SCS in cases of AIS. Further studies are required to better define the timing and the best treatment modality for patients with CBZI related to an SCS in order to reduce associated procedural complications.\uc2\ua9 2012 European Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

Intracranial Hemorrhage in the TST Trial

International audienceBACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Although statins are effective in secondary prevention of ischemic stroke, they are also associated with an increase risk of intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) in certain conditions. In the TST trial (Treat Stroke to Target), we prespecified an exploration of the predictors of incident ICH. METHODS: Patients with ischemic stroke in the previous 3 months or transient ischemic attack within the previous 15 days and evidence of cerebrovascular or coronary artery atherosclerosis were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to a target LDL (low-density lipoprotein) cholesterol of \textless70 mg/dL or 100±10 mg/dL, using statin or ezetimibe. RESULTS: Among 2860 patients enrolled, 31 incident ICH occurred over a median follow-up of 3 years (18 and 13 in the lower and higher target group, 3.21/1000 patient-years [95% CI, 2.38-4.04] and 2.32/1000 patient-years [95% CI, 1.61-3.03], respectively). While there were no baseline predictors of ICH, uncontrolled hypertension (HR, 2.51 [95% CI, 1.01-6.31], P=0.041) and being on anticoagulant (HR, 2.36 [95% CI, 1.00-5.62], P=0.047)] during the trial were significant predictors. On-treatment low LDL cholesterol was not a predictor of ICH. CONCLUSIONS: Targeting an LDL cholesterol of \textless70 mg/dL compared with 100±10 mg/dL in patients with atherosclerotic ischemic stroke nonsignificantly increased the risk of ICH. Incident ICHs were not associated with low LDL cholesterol. Uncontrolled hypertension and anticoagulant therapy were associated with ICH which has important clinical implications. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT01252875; EUDRACT identifier: 2009-A01280-57

Impact of Lower Versus Higher LDL Cholesterol Targets on Cardiovascular Events After Ischemic Stroke in Patients With Diabetes

International audienceAfter an ischemic stroke with evidence of atherosclerosis, lipid-lowering treatment with a target LDL cholesterol of <70 mg/dL compared with 100 ± 10 mg/dL reduced the risk of subsequent cardiovascular events. In this analysis, we explored the effect in the subgroup of patients with diabetes compared with the subgroup without, as well as in those with newly diagnosed diabetes. Patients with ischemic stroke in the previous 3 months or transient ischemic attack within the previous 15 days and evidence of cerebrovascular or coronary artery atherosclerosis were randomly assigned at a 1:1 ratio to a target LDL cholesterol of <70 mg/dL or 100 ± 10 mg/dL using statin or ezetimibe. The primary outcome was the composite of ischemic stroke, myocardial infarction, new symptoms requiring urgent coronary or carotid revascularization, and death resulting from vascular disease. We performed a prespecified analysis to evaluate the effect in patients with diabetes. Of 2,860 patients enrolled, 643 had diabetes at baseline, with a mean age of 66.2 years and baseline LDL cholesterol of 127 mg/dL, and were followed for a median of 3 years. The primary composite end point occurred in 27 (8.2%) of 328 patients in the lower-target group and in 44 (14.0%) of 315 patients in the higher-target group (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 0.56; 95% CI 0.34-0.89; P = 0.016). In patients without diabetes, the HR was 0.87 (95% CI 0.66-1.14; P = 0.31; interaction P = 0.15). In those with diabetes, there were three intracranial hemorrhages in both randomization groups (0.9% vs. 1.0%, respectively). Newly diagnosed diabetes occurred in 98 (9.2%) of 1,070 and in 80 (7.4%) of 1,085 patients in the lower- and higher-target groups, respectively (HR 1.27; 95% CI 0.94-1.71; P = 0.11), and baseline higher HbA1c was the unique multivariable predictor. In conclusion, after an ischemic stroke with evidence of atherosclerosis, targeting an LDL cholesterol of <70 mg/dL compared with 100 ± 10 mg/dL consistently reduced the risk of subsequent stroke and other major vascular events in patients with and without diabetes, but the higher risk in those with diabetes yielded a higher absolute risk reduction, with number needed to treat of 17

Cyclosporine in acute ischemic stroke

International audienceOBJECTIVES: We examined whether IV administration of cyclosporine in combination with thrombolysis might reduce cerebral infarct size. METHODS: Patients aged 18 to 85 years, presenting with an anterior-circulation stroke and eligible for thrombolytic therapy, were enrolled in this multicenter, single-blinded, controlled trial. Fifteen minutes after randomization, patients received either an IV bolus injection of 2.0 mg/kg cyclosporine (Sandimmune, Novartis) or placebo. The primary endpoint was infarct volume on MRI at 30 days. Secondary endpoints included infarct volume according to the site (proximal/distal) of arterial occlusion and recanalization after thrombolysis. RESULTS: From October 2009 to July 2013, 127 patients were enrolled. The primary endpoint was assessed in 110 of 127 patients. The reduction of infarct volume in the cyclosporine compared with the control group was overall not significant (21.8 mL [interquartile range, IQR 5.1, 69.2 mL] vs 28.8 mL [IQR 7.7, 95.0 mL], respectively; p = 0.18). However, in patients with proximal occlusion and effective recanalization, infarct volume was significantly reduced in the cyclosporine compared with the control group (14.9 mL [IQR 1.3, 23.2 mL] vs 48.3 mL [IQR 34.5, 118.2 mL], respectively; p = 0.009). CONCLUSIONS: Cyclosporine was generally not effective in reducing infarct size. However, a smaller infarct size was observed in patients with proximal cerebral artery occlusion and efficient recanalization. CLASSIFICATION OF EVIDENCE: This study provides Class I evidence that in patients with an acute anterior-circulation stroke, thrombolysis plus IV cyclosporine does not significantly decrease 30-day MRI infarct volume compared with thrombolysis alone