Downscaling ECMWF seasonal precipitation forecasts in Europe using the RCA model

The operational performance and usefulness of regional climate models at seasonal time scales are assessed by downscaling an ensemble of global seasonal forecasts. The Rossby Centre RCA regional model was applied to downscale a five-member ensemble from the ECMWF System3 global model in the European Atlantic domain for the period 1981–2001. One month lead time global and regional precipitation predictions were compared over Europe—and particularly over Spain—focusing the study in SON (autumn) dry events. A robust tercile-based probabilistic validation approach was applied to compare the forecasts from global and regional models, obtaining significant skill in both cases, but over a wider area for the later. Finally, we also analyse the performance of a mixed ensemble combining both forecasts

Domain choice in an experimental nested modeling prediction system for South America

The purposes of this paper are to evaluate the new version of the regional model, RegCM3, over South America for two test seasons, and to select a domain for use in an experimental nested prediction system, which incorporates RegCM3 and the European Community-Hamburg (ECHAM) general circulation model (GCM). To evaluate RegCM3, control experiments were completed with RegCM3 driven by both the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis (NNRP) and ECHAM, using a small control domain (D-CTRL) and integration periods of January–March 1983 (El Niño) and January–March 1985 (La Niña). The new version of the regional model captures the primary circulation and rainfall differences between the two years over tropical and subtropical South America. Both the NNRP-driven and ECHAM-driven RegCM3 improve the simulation of the Atlantic intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) compared to the GCM. However, there are some simulation errors. Irrespective of the driving fields, weak northeasterlies associated with reduced precipitation are observed over the Amazon. The simulation of the South Atlantic convergence zone is poor due to errors in the boundary condition forcing which appear to be amplified by the regional model. To select a domain for use in an experimental prediction system, sensitivity tests were performed for three domains, each of which includes important regional features and processes of the climate system. The domain sensitivity experiments were designed to determine how domain size and the location of the GCM boundary forcing affect the regional circulation, moisture transport, and rainfall in two years with different large scale conditions. First, the control domain was extended southward to include the exit region of the Andes low level jet (D-LLJ), then eastward to include the South Atlantic subtropical high (D-ATL), and finally westward to include the subsidence region of the South Pacific subtropical high and to permit the regional model more freedom to respond to the increased resolution of the Andes Mountains (D-PAC). In order to quantify differences between the domain experiments, measures of bias, root mean square error, and the spatial correlation pattern were calculated between the model results and the observed data for the seasonal average fields. The results show the GCM driving fields have remarkable control over the RegCM3 simulations. Although no single domain clearly outperforms the others in both seasons, the control domain, D-CTRL, compares most favorably with observations. Over the ITCZ region, the simulations were improved by including a large portion of the South Atlantic subtropical high (D-ATL). The methodology presented here provides a quantitative basis for evaluating domain choice in future studies

Pets as Sentinels of Human Exposure to Neurotoxic Metals

The idea that animals may be used as sentinels of environmental hazards pending over humans and the associated public health implications is not a new one. Nowadays pets are being used as bioindicators for the effects of environmental contaminants in human populations. This is of paramount importance due to the large increase in the worldwide distribution of synthetic chemicals, particularly in the built environment. Companion animals share the habitat with humans being simultaneously exposed to and suffering the same disease spectrum as their masters. Moreover, their shorter latency periods (due to briefer lifespans) enable them to act as early warning systems, allowing timely public health interventions. The rise on ethical constraints on the use of animals and, consequently, on the sampling they can be subjected to has led to the preferential use of noninvasive matrices, and in this case we are looking into hair. This chapter focuses in three non-essential metals: mercury, lead, and cadmium, due to their ubiquitous presence in the built environment and their ability of affecting the mammal nervous system. There is a fairly short amount of studies reporting the concentrations of these metals in pets’ hair, particularly for cats. These studies are characterized, and the metal concentrations corresponding to different parameters (e.g., age, sex, diet, rearing) are described in order to provide the reader with a general vision on the use of this noninvasive matrix on the studies conducted since the last two decades of the twentieth century.publishe

Respective impacts of Arctic sea ice decline and increasing greenhouse gases concentration on Sahel precipitation

The impact of climate change on Sahel precipitation is uncertain and has to be widely documented. Recently, it has been shown that Arctic sea ice loss leverages the global warming effects worldwide, suggesting a potential impact of Arctic sea ice decline on tropical regions. However, defining the specific roles of increasing greenhouse gases (GHG) concentration and declining Arctic sea ice extent on Sahel climate is not straightforward since the former impacts the latter. We avoid this dependency by analysing idealized experiments performed with the CNRM-CM5 coupled model. Results show that the increase in GHG concentration explains most of the Sahel precipitation change. We found that the impact due to Arctic sea ice loss depends on the level of atmospheric GHG concentration. When the GHG concentration is relatively low (values representative of 1980s), then the impact is moderate over the Sahel. However, when the concentration in GHG is levelled up, then Arctic sea ice loss leads to increased Sahel precipitation. In this particular case the ocean-land meridional gradient of temperature strengthens, allowing a more intense monsoon circulation. We linked the non-linearity of Arctic sea ice decline impact with differences in temperature and sea level pressure changes over the North Atlantic Ocean. We argue that the impact of the Arctic sea ice loss will become more relevant with time, in the context of climate change

Cell Walls of Saccharomyces cerevisiae Differentially Modulated Innate Immunity and Glucose Metabolism during Late Systemic Inflammation

BACKGROUND: Salmonella causes acute systemic inflammation by using its virulence factors to invade the intestinal epithelium. But, prolonged inflammation may provoke severe body catabolism and immunological diseases. Salmonella has become more life-threatening due to emergence of multiple-antibiotic resistant strains. Mannose-rich oligosaccharides (MOS) from cells walls of Saccharomyces cerevisiae have shown to bind mannose-specific lectin of Gram-negative bacteria including Salmonella, and prevent their adherence to intestinal epithelial cells. However, whether MOS may potentially mitigate systemic inflammation is not investigated yet. Moreover, molecular events underlying innate immune responses and metabolic activities during late inflammation, in presence or absence of MOS, are unknown. METHODS AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Using a Salmonella LPS-induced systemic inflammation chicken model and microarray analysis, we investigated the effects of MOS and virginiamycin (VIRG, a sub-therapeutic antibiotic) on innate immunity and glucose metabolism during late inflammation. Here, we demonstrate that MOS and VIRG modulated innate immunity and metabolic genes differently. Innate immune responses were principally mediated by intestinal IL-3, but not TNF-α, IL-1 or IL-6, whereas glucose mobilization occurred through intestinal gluconeogenesis only. MOS inherently induced IL-3 expression in control hosts. Consequent to LPS challenge, IL-3 induction in VIRG hosts but not differentially expressed in MOS hosts revealed that MOS counteracted LPS's detrimental inflammatory effects. Metabolic pathways are built to elucidate the mechanisms by which VIRG host's higher energy requirements were met: including gene up-regulations for intestinal gluconeogenesis (PEPCK) and liver glycolysis (ENO2), and intriguingly liver fatty acid synthesis through ATP citrate synthase (CS) down-regulation and ATP citrate lyase (ACLY) and malic enzyme (ME) up-regulations. However, MOS host's lower energy demands were sufficiently met through TCA citrate-derived energy, as indicated by CS up-regulation. CONCLUSIONS: MOS terminated inflammation earlier than VIRG and reduced glucose mobilization, thus representing a novel biological strategy to alleviate Salmonella-induced systemic inflammation in human and animal hosts

Immune-Mediated Disease Flares or New-Onset Disease in 27 Subjects Following mRNA/DNA SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination

Background: Infectious diseases and vaccines can occasionally cause new-onset or flare of immune-mediated diseases (IMDs). The adjuvanticity of the available SARS-CoV-2 vaccines is based on either TLR-7/8 or TLR-9 agonism, which is distinct from previous vaccines and is a common pathogenic mechanism in IMDs. Methods: We evaluated IMD flares or new disease onset within 28-days of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination at five large tertiary centres in countries with early vaccination adoption, three in Israel, one in UK, and one in USA. We assessed the pattern of disease expression in terms of autoimmune, autoinflammatory, or mixed disease phenotype and organ system affected. We also evaluated outcomes. Findings: 27 cases included 17 flares and 10 new onset IMDs. 23/27 received the BNT - 162b2 vaccine, 2/27 the mRNA-1273 and 2/27 the ChAdOx1 vaccines. The mean age was 54.4 ± 19.2 years and 55% of cases were female. Among the 27 cases, 21 (78%) had at least one underlying autoimmune/rheumatic disease prior the vaccination. Among those patients with a flare or activation, four episodes occurred after receiving the second-dose and in one patient they occurred both after the first and the second-dose. In those patients with a new onset disease, two occurred after the second-dose and in one patient occurred both after the first (new onset) and second-dose (flare). For either dose, IMDs occurred on average 4 days later. Of the cases, 20/27 (75%) were mild to moderate in severity. Over 80% of cases had excellent resolution of inflammatory features, mostly with the use of corticosteroid therapy. Other immune-mediated conditions included idiopathic pericarditis (n = 2), neurosarcoidosis with small fiber neuropathy (n = 1), demyelination (n = 1), and myasthenia gravis (n = 2). In 22 cases (81.5%), the insurgence of Adverse event following immunization (AEFI)/IMD could not be explained based on the drug received by the patient. In 23 cases (85.2%), AEFI development could not be explained based on the underlying disease/co-morbidities. Only in one case (3.7%), the timing window of the insurgence of the side effect was considered not compatible with the time from vaccine to flare. Interpretation: Despite the high population exposure in the regions served by these centers, IMDs flares or onset temporally-associated with SARS-CoV-2 vaccination appear rare. Most are moderate in severity and responsive to therapy although some severe flares occurred. Funding: none

Future evolution of the Sahel precipitation zonal contrast in CESM1

The main focus of this study is the zonal contrast of the Sahel precipitation shown in the CMIP5 climate projections: precipitation decreases over the western Sahel (i.e., Senegal and western Mali) and increases over the central Sahel (i.e., eastern Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger). This zonal contrast in future precipitation change is a robust model response to climate change but suffers from a lack of an explanation. To this aim, we study the impact of current and future climate change on Sahel precipitation by using the Large Ensemble of the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1). In CESM1, global warming leads to a strengthening of the zonal contrast, as shown by the difference between the 2060–2099 period (under a high emission scenario) and the 1960–1999 period (under the historical forcing). The zonal contrast is associated with dynamic shifts in the atmospheric circulation. We show that, in absence of a forced response, that is, when only accounting for internal climate variability, the zonal contrast is associated with the Pacific and the tropical Atlantic oceans variability. However, future patterns in sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are not necessary to explaining the projected strengthening of the zonal contrast. The mechanisms underlying the simulated changes are elucidated by analysing a set of CMIP5 idealised simulations. We show the increase in precipitation over the central Sahel to be mostly associated with the surface warming over northern Africa, which favour the displacement of the monsoon cell northwards. Over the western Sahel, the decrease in Sahel precipitation is associated with a southward shift of the monsoon circulation, and is mostly due to the warming of the SST. These two mechanisms allow explaining the zonal contrast in precipitation change

Model uncertainties in climate change impacts on Sahel precipitation in ensembles of CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulations

The impact of climate change on Sahel precipitation suffers from large uncertainties and is strongly model-dependent. In this study, we analyse sources of inter-model spread in Sahel precipitation change by decomposing precipitation into its dynamic and thermodynamic terms, using a large set of climate model simulations. Results highlight that model uncertainty is mostly related to the response of the atmospheric circulation to climate change (dynamic changes), while thermodynamic changes are less uncertain among climate models. Uncertainties arise mainly because the models simulate different shifts in atmospheric circulation over West Africa in a warmer climate. We linked the changes in atmospheric circulation to the changes in Sea Surface Temperature, emphasising that the Northern hemispheric temperature gradient is primary to explain uncertainties in Sahel precipitation change. Sources of Sahel precipitation uncertainties are shown to be the same in the new generation of climate models (CMIP6) as in the previous generation of models (CMIP5)

The possible role of local air pollution in climate change in West Africa

The climate of West Africa is characterized by a sensitive monsoon system that is associated with marked natural precipitation variability. This region has been and is projected to be subject to substantial global and regional-scale changes including greenhouse-gas-induced warming and sea-level rise, land-use and land-cover change, and substantial biomass burning. We argue that more attention should be paid to rapidly increasing air pollution over the explosively growing cities of West Africa, as experiences from other regions suggest that this can alter regional climate through the influences of aerosols on clouds and radiation, and will also affect human health and food security. We need better observations and models to quantify the magnitude and characteristics of these impacts