Dairy marketing and pricing in Kenya: are milk shortages the consequence of drought or pricing policies?

In this paper, production, consumption, marketing and pricing of dairy products in Kenya are examined and discussed. It is argued that there are severe irrationalities in the pricing of dairy products and that these have become an important constraint on the industry. At a uniform price between locations, transport costs are hidden and there is excessive stimulation to production far from the consuming areas. At a uniform price between seasons, the far greater production costs in the dry season are not incurred so that dry season milk shortages (annually, blamed on the drought) are now regular features. Wet season surpluses are in the meantime enormous, involving the necessity for substantial processing capacity that remains idle for a good part of each year. Large financial losses are incurred by the Kenya Cooperative Creamery (K.C.C.) in the flush season when twice as much milk must be purchased at the same uniform price. A large percentage of this milk is then used for manufacturing and sold at a net loss. An excessive consumer price for liquid milk is meanwhile maintained which severely inhibits the growth of milk consumption, especially among the poor who would derive the greatest nutritional benefit from increasing their consumption. A large part of the additional supplies in the smallholder areas are going into local consumption. Only when local demand is met at the supply price to K.C.C. can the surpluses from these areas be expected in the formal market. At a seasonally uniform producer price the supply fluctuations between seasons are particularly severe fro these areas. An alternative milk pricing system is proposed that would recognise that neither the production costs nor the financial or social value of additional milk is uniform between seasons and locations. In this system a floor price would be paid for all seasons with an ex post additional payout depending on the proportion of milk intake that is sold as fluid milk

Periodicity in the autocorrelation function as a mechanism for regularly occurring zero crossings or extreme values of a Gaussian process

The problem of zero crossings is of great historical prevalence and promises extensive application. The challenge is to establish precisely how the autocorrelation function or power spectrum of a one-dimensional continuous random process determines the density function of the intervals between the zero crossings of that process. This paper investigates the case where periodicities are incorporated into the autocorrelation function of a smooth process. Numerical simulations, and statistics about the number of crossings in a fixed interval, reveal that in this case the zero crossings segue between a random and deterministic point process depending on the relative time scales of the periodic and nonperiodic components of the autocorrelation function. By considering the Laplace transform of the density function, we show that incorporating correlation between successive intervals is essential to obtaining accurate results for the interval variance. The same method enables prediction of the density function tail in some regions, and we suggest approaches for extending this to cover all regions. In an ever-more complex world, the potential applications for this scale of regularity in a random process are far reaching and powerful

Markus Borner, a life at the conservation front line

No abstract available

Assessing rotation-invariant feature classification for automated wildebeest population counts

Accurate and on-demand animal population counts are the holy grail for wildlife conservation organizations throughout the world because they enable fast and responsive adaptive management policies. While the collection of image data from camera traps, satellites, and manned or unmanned aircraft has advanced significantly, the detection and identification of animals within images remains a major bottleneck since counting is primarily conducted by dedicated enumerators or citizen scientists. Recent developments in the field of computer vision suggest a potential resolution to this issue through the use of rotation-invariant object descriptors combined with machine learning algorithms. Here we implement an algorithm to detect and count wildebeest from aerial images collected in the Serengeti National Park in 2009 as part of the biennial wildebeest count. We find that the per image error rates are greater than, but comparable to, two separate human counts. For the total count, the algorithm is more accurate than both manual counts, suggesting that human counters have a tendency to systematically over or under count images. While the accuracy of the algorithm is not yet at an acceptable level for fully automatic counts, our results show this method is a promising avenue for further research and we highlight specific areas where future research should focus in order to develop fast and accurate enumeration of aerial count data. If combined with a bespoke image collection protocol, this approach may yield a fully automated wildebeest count in the near future.CJT is supported by a Complex Systems Scholar Award from the James S. McDonnell Foundation. JGCH is supported by a Lord Kelvin Adam Smith Fellowship, funding from the British Ecological Society and the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 641918 AfricanBioServices. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript

A Model for the Analysis of Caries Occurrence in Primary Molar Tooth Surfaces

Recently methods of caries quantification in the primary dentition have moved away from summary ‘whole mouth’ measures at the individual level to methods based on generalised linear modelling (GLM) approaches or survival analysis approaches. However, GLM approaches based on logistic transformation fail to take into account the time-dependent process of tooth/surface survival to caries. There may also be practical difficulties associated with casting parametric survival-based approaches in a complex multilevel hierarchy and the selection of an optimal survival distribution, while non-parametric survival methods are not generally suitable for the assessment of supplementary information recorded on study participants. In the current investigation, a hybrid semi-parametric approach comprising elements of survival-based and GLM methodologies suitable for modelling of caries occurrence within fixed time periods is assessed, using an illustrative multilevel data set of caries occurrence in primary molars from a cohort study, with clustering of data assumed to occur at surface and tooth levels. Inferences of parameter significance were found to be consistent with previous parametric survival-based analyses of the same data set, with gender, socio-economic status, fluoridation status, tooth location, surface type and fluoridation status-surface type interaction significantly associated with caries occurrence. The appropriateness of the hierarchical structure facilitated by the hybrid approach was also confirmed. Hence the hybrid approach is proposed as a more appropriate alternative to primary caries modelling than non-parametric survival methods or other GLM-based models, and as a practical alternative to more rigorous survival-based methods unlikely to be fully accessible to most researchers

Competition, predation, and migration: individual choice patterns of Serengeti migrants captured by hierarchical models

Large-herbivore migrations occur across gradients of food quality or food abundance that are generally determined by underlying geographic patterns in rainfall, elevation, or latitude, in turn causing variation in the degree of interspecific competition and the exposure to predators. However, the role of top-down effects of predation as opposed to the bottom-up effects of competition for resources in shaping migrations is not well understood. We studied 30 GPS radio-collared wildebeest and zebra migrating seasonally in the Serengeti-Mara ecosystem to ask how predation and food availability differentially affect the individual movement patterns of these co-migrating species. A hierarchical analysis of movement trajectories (directions and distances) in relation to grass biomass, high-quality food patches, and predation risk show that wildebeest tend to move in response to food quality, with little attention to predation risk. In contrast, individual zebra movements reflect a balance between the risk of predation and the access to high-quality food of sufficient biomass. Our analysis shows how two migratory species move in response to different attributes of the same landscape. Counterintuitively and in contrast to most other animal movement studies, we find that both species move farther each day when resources are locally abundant than when they are scarce. During the wet season when the quality of grazing is at its peak, both wildebeest and zebra move the greatest distances and do not settle in localized areas to graze for extended periods. We propose that this punctuated movement in highquality patches is explained by density dependency, whereby large groups of competing individuals (up to 1.65 million grazers) rapidly deplete the localized grazing opportunities. These findings capture the roles of predation and competition in shaping animal migrations, which are often claimed but rarely measured

Complaints about dental practitioners: an analysis of 6 years of complaints about dentists, dental prosthetists, oral health therapists, dental therapists and dental hygienists in Australia

BACKGROUND: Previous research has found dental practitioners at elevated risk of complaint compared with other health professions. This study aimed to describe the frequency, nature and risk factors for complaints involving dental practitioners. METHODS: We assembled a national dataset of complaints about registered health practitioners in Australia between January 2011 and December 2016. We classified complaints into 23 issues across three domains: health, performance and conduct. We compared rates of complaints about dental practitioners and other health practitioners. We used negative binomial regression analysis to identify factors associated with complaints. RESULTS: Dental practitioners made up 3.5% of health practitioners, yet accounted for approximately 10% of complaints. Dental practitioners had the highest rate of complaints among fourteen health professions (42.7 per 1000 practitioners per year) with higher rates among dentists and dental prosthetists than allied dental practitioners. Male practitioners were at a higher risk of complaints. Most complaints about dentists related to treatments and procedures (59%). Around 4% of dentists received more than one complaint, accounting for 49% of complaints about dentists. In 60% of closed cases no regulatory action was required. Around 13% of complaints resulted in restrictive actions, such as conditions on practice. CONCLUSION: Improved understanding of patterns may assist regulatory boards and professional associations to ensure competent practice and protect patient safety

Developing fencing policies in dryland ecosystems

The daily energy requirements of animals are determined by a combination of physical and physiological factors, but food availability may challenge the capacity to meet nutritional needs. Western gorillas (Gorilla gorilla) are an interesting model for investigating this topic because they are folivore-frugivores that adjust their diet and activities to seasonal variation in fruit availability. Observations of one habituated group of western gorillas in Bai-Hokou, Central African Republic (December 2004-December 2005) were used to examine seasonal variation in diet quality and nutritional intake. We tested if during the high fruit season the food consumed by western gorillas was higher in quality (higher in energy, sugar, fat but lower in fibre and antifeedants) than during the low fruit season. Food consumed during the high fruit season was higher in digestible energy, but not any other macronutrients. Second, we investigated whether the gorillas increased their daily intake of carbohydrates, metabolizable energy (KCal/g OM), or other nutrients during the high fruit season. Intake of dry matter, fibers, fat, protein and the majority of minerals and phenols decreased with increased frugivory and there was some indication of seasonal variation in intake of energy (KCal/g OM), tannins, protein/fiber ratio, and iron. Intake of non-structural carbohydrates and sugars was not influenced by fruit availability. Gorillas are probably able to extract large quantities of energy via fermentation since they rely on proteinaceous leaves during the low fruit season. Macronutrients and micronutrients, but not digestible energy, may be limited for them during times of low fruit availability because they are hind-gut fermenters. We discuss the advantages of seasonal frugivores having large dietary breath and flexibility, significant characteristics to consider in the conservation strategies of endangered species

Quantifying water requirements of African ungulates through a combination of functional traits

Climate and land use change modify surface water availability in African savannas. Surface water is a key resource for both wildlife and livestock and its spatial and temporal distribution is important for understanding the composition of large herbivore assemblages in savannas. Yet, the extent to which ungulate species differ in their water requirements remains poorly quantified. Here, we infer the water requirements of 48 African ungulates by combining six different functional traits related to physiological adaptations to reduce water loss, namely minimum dung moisture, relative dung pellet size, relative surface area of the distal colon, urine osmolality, relative medullary thickness, and evaporation rate. In addition, we investigated how these differences in water requirements relate to differences in dietary water intake. We observed strong correlations between traits related to water loss through dung, urine and evaporation, suggesting that ungulates minimize water loss through multiple pathways simultaneously, which suggests that each trait can thus be used independently to predict water requirements. Furthermore, we found that browsers and grazers had similar water requirements, but browsers are expected to be less dependent on surface water because they acquire more water through their diet. We conclude that these key functional traits are a useful way to determine differences in water requirements and an important tool for predicting changes in herbivore community assembly resulting from changes in surface water availability

Anthropogenic modifications to fire regimes in the wider Serengeti‐Mara ecosystem

Fire is a key driver in savannah systems and widely used as a land management tool. Intensifying human land uses are leading to rapid changes in the fire regimes, with consequences for ecosystem functioning and composition. We undertake a novel analysis describing spatial patterns in the fire regime of the Serengeti‐Mara ecosystem, document multidecadal temporal changes and investigate the factors underlying these patterns. We used MODIS active fire and burned area products from 2001 to 2014 to identify individual fires; summarizing four characteristics for each detected fire: size, ignition date, time since last fire and radiative power. Using satellite imagery, we estimated the rate of change in the density of livestock bomas as a proxy for livestock density. We used these metrics to model drivers of variation in the four fire characteristics, as well as total number of fires and total area burned. Fires in the Serengeti‐Mara show high spatial variability—with number of fires and ignition date mirroring mean annual precipitation. The short‐term effect of rainfall decreases fire size and intensity but cumulative rainfall over several years leads to increased standing grass biomass and fuel loads, and, therefore, in larger and hotter fires. Our study reveals dramatic changes over time, with a reduction in total number of fires and total area burned, to the point where some areas now experience virtually no fire. We suggest that increasing livestock numbers are driving this decline, presumably by inhibiting fire spread. These temporal patterns are part of a global decline in total area burned, especially in savannahs, and we caution that ecosystem functioning may have been compromised. Land managers and policy formulators need to factor in rapid fire regime modifications to achieve management objectives and maintain the ecological function of savannah ecosystems