Drivers of future alien species impacts: An expert‐based assessment

Understanding the likely future impacts of biological invasions is crucial yet highly challenging given the multiple relevant environmental, socio‐economic and societal contexts and drivers. In the absence of quantitative models, methods based on expert knowledge are the best option for assessing future invasion trajectories. Here, we present an expert assessment of the drivers of potential alien species impacts under contrasting scenarios and socioecological contexts through the mid‐21st century. Based on responses from 36 experts in biological invasions, moderate (20%–30%) increases in invasions, compared to the current conditions, are expected to cause major impacts on biodiversity in most socioecological contexts. Three main drivers of biological invasions—transport, climate change and socio‐economic change—were predicted to significantly affect future impacts of alien species on biodiversity even under a best‐case scenario. Other drivers (e.g. human demography and migration in tropical and subtropical regions) were also of high importance in specific global contexts (e.g. for individual taxonomic groups or biomes). We show that some best‐case scenarios can substantially reduce potential future impacts of biological invasions. However, rapid and comprehensive actions are necessary to use this potential and achieve the goals of the Post‐2020 Framework of the Convention on Biological Diversity

Drivers of future alien species impacts: an expert‐based assessment

Understanding the likely future impacts of biological invasions is crucial yet highly challenging given the multiple relevant environmental, socio‐economic and societal contexts and drivers. In the absence of quantitative models, methods based on expert knowledge are the best option for assessing future invasion trajectories. Here, we present an expert assessment of the drivers of potential alien species impacts under contrasting scenarios and socioecological contexts through the mid‐21st century. Based on responses from 36 experts in biological invasions, moderate (20%–30%) increases in invasions, compared to the current conditions, are expected to cause major impacts on biodiversity in most socioecological contexts. Three main drivers of biological invasions—transport, climate change and socio‐economic change—were predicted to significantly affect future impacts of alien species on biodiversity even under a best‐case scenario. Other drivers (e.g. human demography and migration in tropical and subtropical regions) were also of high importance in specific global contexts (e.g. for individual taxonomic groups or biomes). We show that some best‐case scenarios can substantially reduce potential future impacts of biological invasions. However, rapid and comprehensive actions are necessary to use this potential and achieve the goals of the Post‐2020 Framework of the Convention on Biological Diversity

Circadian function in patients with advanced non-small-cell lung cancer

This study aimed to evaluate whether patients with advanced non-small-cell lung cancer experience disrupted rest–activity daily rhythms, poor sleep quality, weakness, and maintain attributes that are linked to circadian function such as fatigue. This report describes the rest–activity patterns of 33 non-small-cell lung cancer patients who participated in a randomised clinical trial evaluating the benefits of melatonin. Data are reported on circadian function, health-related quality of life (QoL), subjective sleep quality, and anxiety/depression levels prior to randomisation and treatment. Actigraphy data, an objective measure of circadian function, demonstrated that patients' rest–activity circadian function differs significantly from control subjects. Our patients reported poor sleep quality and high levels of fatigue. Ferrans and Powers QoL Index instrument found a high level of dissatisfaction with health-related QoL. Data from the European Organization for Research and Treatment for Cancer reported poor capacity to fulfil the activities of daily living. Patients studied in the hospital during or near chemotherapy had significantly more abnormal circadian function than those studied in the ambulatory setting. Our data indicate that measurement of circadian sleep/activity dynamics should be accomplished in the outpatient/home setting for a minimum of 4–7 circadian cycles to assure that they are most representative of the patients' true condition. We conclude that the daily sleep/activity patterns of patients with advanced lung cancer are disturbed. These are accompanied by marked disruption of QoL and function. These data argue for investigating how much of this poor functioning and QoL are actually caused by this circadian disruption, and, whether behavioural, light-based, and or pharmacologic strategies to correct the circadian/sleep activity patterns can improve function and QoL

Fuel Conditions Associated with Native and Exotic Grasses in a Subtropical Dry Forest in Puerto Rico

Exotic grasses capable of increasing frequency and intensity of anthropogenic fire have invaded subtropical and tropical dry forests worldwide. Since many dry forest trees are susceptible to fire, this can result in decline of native species and loss of forest cover. While the contribution of exotic grasses to altered fire regimes has been well documented, the role of native grasses in contributing to fuel loads in dry forest has received little attention. We assessed differences in fuel conditions among native and exotic grasses within a subtropical dry forest preserve in Puerto Rico. We quantified fine fuel loads, fuel continuity, and seasonal changes in percent dead grass among the following grass patch types: (1) native grass with no known history of recent fire, (2) exotic grass that had burned once (single burn), and (3) exotic grass that burns frequently. Sampling was conducted during one wet season (August to October 2008) and again in the following dry season (February to March 2009). Overall, fine fuel loading was highest in native grass, but this was due to woody fuels rather than grass fuels. Percent of dead grass fuels increased with the transition from wet to dry season, and this increase was more pronounced for exotic grasses. Fuel continuity was highest in frequently burned exotic grass. Differences in grass phenology and fuel continuity may contribute to differences in fire frequency among native and exotic grass patches. Fuel management focused on prescribed fire should be used in conjunction with restoration of tree canopy to reduce fuels and limit development of a grass-fire cycle

Nitrogen Level Changes the Interactions between a Native (Scirpus triqueter) and an Exotic Species (Spartina anglica) in Coastal China

The exotic species Spartina anglica, introduced from Europe in 1963, has been experiencing a decline in the past decade in coastal China, but the reasons for the decline are still not clear. It is hypothesized that competition with the native species Scirpus triqueter may have played an important role in the decline due to niche overlap in the field. We measured biomass, leaf number and area, asexual reproduction and relative neighborhood effect (RNE) of the two species in both monoculture and mixture under three nitrogen levels (control, low and high). S. anglica showed significantly lower biomass accumulation, leaf number and asexual reproduction in mixture than in monoculture. The inter- and intra-specific RNE of S. anglica were all positive, and the inter-specific RNE was significantly higher than the intra-specific RNE in the control. For S. triqueter, inter- and intra-specific RNE were negative at the high nitrogen level but positive in the control and at the low nitrogen level. This indicates that S. triqueter exerted an asymmetric competitive advantage over S. anglica in the control and low nitrogen conditions; however, S. anglica facilitated growth of S. triqueter in high nitrogen conditions. Nitrogen level changed the interactions between the two species because S. triqueter better tolerated low nitrogen. Since S. anglica is increasingly confined to upper, more nitrogen-limited marsh areas in coastal China, increased competition from S. triqueter may help explain its decline

Time since Introduction, Seed Mass, and Genome Size Predict Successful Invaders among the Cultivated Vascular Plants of Hawaii

Extensive economic and environmental damage has been caused by invasive exotic plant species in many ecosystems worldwide. Many comparative studies have therefore attempted to predict, from biological traits, which species among the pool of naturalized non-natives become invasive. However, few studies have investigated which species establish and/or become pests from the larger pool of introduced species and controlled for time since introduction. Here we present results from a study aimed at quantifying predicting three classes of invasive species cultivated in Hawaii. Of 7,866 ornamental species cultivated in Hawaii between 1840 and 1999, 420 (5.3%) species naturalized, 141 (1.8%) have been classified as weeds, and 39 (0.5%) were listed by the state of Hawaii as noxious. Of the 815 species introduced >80 years ago, 253 (31%) have naturalized, 90 (11%) are classed as weeds, and 22 (3%) as noxious by the state of Hawaii. Using boosted regression trees we classified each group with nearly 90% accuracy, despite incompleteness of data and the low proportion of naturalized or pest species. Key biological predictors were seed mass and highest chromosome number standardized by genus which, when data on residence time was removed, were able to predict all three groups with 76–82% accuracy. We conclude that, when focused on a single region, screening for potential weeds or noxious plants based on a small set of biological traits can be achieved with sufficient accuracy for policy and management purposes

Of Asian Forests and European Fields: Eastern U.S. Plant Invasions in a Global Floristic Context

Background: Biogeographic patterns of species invasions hold important clues to solving the recalcitrant ‘who’, ‘where’, and ‘why ’ questions of invasion biology, but the few existing studies make no attempt to distinguish alien floras (all non-native occurrences) from invasive floras (rapidly spreading species of significant management concern), nor have invasion biologists asked whether particular habitats are consistently invaded by species from particular regions. Methodology/Principal Findings: Here I describe the native floristic provenances of the 2629 alien plant taxa of the Eastern Deciduous Forest of the Eastern U.S. (EUS), and contrast these to the subset of 449 taxa that EUS management agencies have labeled ‘invasive’. Although EUS alien plants come from all global floristic regions, nearly half (45%) have native ranges that include central and northern Europe or the Mediterranean (39%). In contrast, EUS invasive species are most likely to come from East Asia (29%), a pattern that is magnified when the invasive pool is restricted to species that are native to a single floristic region (25 % from East Asia, compared to only 11 % from northern/central Europe and 2 % from the Mediterranean). Moreover, East Asian invaders are mostly woody (56%, compared to just 23 % of the total alien flora) and are significantly more likely to invade intact forests and riparian areas than European species, which dominate managed or disturbed ecosystems. Conclusions/Significance: These patterns suggest that the often-invoked ‘imperialist dogma ’ view of global invasion

MiRNA Control of Vegetative Phase Change in Trees

After germination, plants enter juvenile vegetative phase and then transition to an adult vegetative phase before producing reproductive structures. The character and timing of the juvenile-to-adult transition vary widely between species. In annual plants, this transition occurs soon after germination and usually involves relatively minor morphological changes, whereas in trees and other perennial woody plants it occurs after months or years and can involve major changes in shoot architecture. Whether this transition is controlled by the same mechanism in annual and perennial plants is unknown. In the annual forb Arabidopsis thaliana and in maize (Zea mays), vegetative phase change is controlled by the sequential activity of microRNAs miR156 and miR172. miR156 is highly abundant in seedlings and decreases during the juvenile-to-adult transition, while miR172 has an opposite expression pattern. We observed similar changes in the expression of these genes in woody species with highly differentiated, well-characterized juvenile and adult phases (Acacia confusa, Acacia colei, Eucalyptus globulus, Hedera helix, Quercus acutissima), as well as in the tree Populus x canadensis, where vegetative phase change is marked by relatively minor changes in leaf morphology and internode length. Overexpression of miR156 in transgenic P. x canadensis reduced the expression of miR156-targeted SPL genes and miR172, and it drastically prolonged the juvenile phase. Our results indicate that miR156 is an evolutionarily conserved regulator of vegetative phase change in both annual herbaceous plants and perennial trees

Think globally, measure locally: The MIREN standardized protocol for monitoring plant species distributions along elevation gradients

Climate change and other global change drivers threaten plant diversity in mountains worldwide. A widely documented response to such environmental modifications is for plant species to change their elevational ranges. Range shifts are often idiosyncratic and difficult to generalize, partly due to variation in sampling methods. There is thus a need for a standardized monitoring strategy that can be applied across mountain regions to assess distribution changes and community turnover of native and non-native plant species over space and time. Here, we present a conceptually intuitive and standardized protocol developed by the Mountain Invasion Research Network (MIREN) to systematically quantify global patterns of native and non-native species distributions along elevation gradients and shifts arising from interactive effects of climate change and human disturbance. Usually repeated every five years, surveys consist of 20 sample sites located at equal elevation increments along three replicate roads per sampling region. At each site, three plots extend from the side of a mountain road into surrounding natural vegetation. The protocol has been successfully used in 18 regions worldwide from 2007 to present. Analyses of one point in time already generated some salient results, and revealed region-specific elevational patterns of native plant species richness, but a globally consistent elevational decline in non-native species richness. Non-native plants were also more abundant directly adjacent to road edges, suggesting that disturbed roadsides serve as a vector for invasions into mountains. From the upcoming analyses of time series, even more exciting results can be expected, especially about range shifts. Implementing the protocol in more mountain regions globally would help to generate a more complete picture of how global change alters species distributions. This would inform conservation policy in mountain ecosystems, where some conservation policies remain poorly implemented