How Slot Machines Work -- and Why You Should Think Twice before Playing Them

A short summary of my recent academic research. The intent was to expose a wider audience to the findings. The U.S. Conversation was recommended by Mary Croughan, VP Research & Economic Developmen

The determinants and effects of slot servicescape satisfaction in a Las Vegas casino

Scales representing ambient conditions, ability to navigate the slot floor, cleanliness, interior decor and seating comfort all produce a significant effect on slot servicescape satisfaction. Scales representing slot servicescape satisfaction and gaming value produce significant effects on overall satisfaction with the slot experience. Collinearity conditions prevented the measurement of staff friendliness and service promptness on overall satisfaction. Both servicescape satisfaction and overall satisfaction produce significant effects on behavioral intention variables related to loyalty and desire to remain in the casino environment. Simultaneous multiple regression analysis was used to test all one-tailed hypotheses at the .10 alpha level (n = 195); This exploratory study was designed to determine the effects of variables theorized to influence both slot servicescape and overall satisfaction levels of slot players. Additionally, this research examined the effects of the servicescape and overall satisfaction variables on behavioral intentions (loyalty and desire to stay in the casino)

Why is low waist-to-chest ratio attractive in males? The mediating roles of perceived dominance, fitness, and protection ability

Past research suggests that a lower waist-to-chest ratio (WCR) in men (i.e., narrower waist and broader chest) is viewed as attractive by women. However, little work has directly examined why low WCRs are preferred. The current work merged insights from theory and past research to develop a model examining perceived dominance, fitness, and protection ability as mediators of to WCR-attractiveness relationship. These mediators and their link to both short-term (sexual) and long-term (relational) attractiveness were simultaneously tested by having 151 women rate one of 15 avatars, created from 3D body scans. Men with lower WCR were perceived as more physically dominant, physically fit, and better able to protect loved ones; these characteristics differentially mediated the effect of WCR on short-term, long-term, and general attractiveness ratings. Greater understanding of the judgments women form regarding WCR may yield insights into motivations by men to manipulate their body image

Preparing for Shortages of Future COVID-19 Drugs: A Data-Based Model for Optimal Allocation

Drugs for the treatment of Covid-19 are currently beign tested, and those that are apporved for use are likely to be in short supply due to the global scale of the pandemic. This policy brief proposes a model for optimally allocating future Covid-19 drugs to patients to minimize deaths under conditions of resource scarcity. A linear programming model is developed that estimates the potential number of deaths that may result from Covid-19 under two scenarios: with antivirals and without antivirals. It takes into account patient risk level, the severity of their symptoms, resource availability in hospitals (i.e. hospital beds, critical care units, ventilators), observed mortality rates, and share of the Philippine population. Based on simulations, the model can make actionable recommendations on how to prioritize the allocation of the drugs

Multiple Absorption Components in the Post-Periastron He I P Cygni Absorption Troughs of Eta Carinae

We have obtained more than 100 high spectral resolution (R approx. 90,000) spectra of the massive binary star eta Carinae since 2012 in an effort to continue our orbital and long-term echelle monitoring of this extreme binary (Richardson et al. 2010, AJ, 139, 1534) with the CHIRON spectrograph on the CTIO 1.5 m telescope (Tokovinin et al. 2013, PASP, 125, 1336) in the 4550-7500A region. We increased our monitoring efforts and observation frequency as the periastron event of 2014 has approached, and resumed observations in October. We note that since mid-October, we have observed unusual multiple absorption components in the P Cygni troughs of the He I lines (4714, 5876, 6678, and 7065; 4921 and 5015 are blended with Fe II). In particular, we note that these components extend to -700 km/s, well beyond the terminal wind speed of the primary. These absorptions are likely related to clumps and turbulence in the wind-wind collision region and bow shock, as suggested by the high-velocity absorption observed by Groh et al. (2010, A&A, 519, 9) in the He I 10830A transition and our pre-periastron observations (Richardson et al. 2014, ATel #6336). In these cases, we suspect that we look along an arm of the shock cone and that we see a fast absorption change from the other collision region shortly after periastron. Further, high spectral resolution data are highly encouraged, especially for resolving powers greater than 50,000. These observations were obtained with the CTIO 1.5 m telescope, operated by the SMARTS Consortium, and were obtained through both SMARTS and NOAO programs 2012A-0216, 2012B-0194, and 2013b-0328. We thank Emily MacPherson (Yale) for her efforts in scheduling the observations that we have and will obtain in the coming weeks and months

The Methodology of Modern Macroeconomics and the Descriptive Approach to Discounting

Critics of modern macroeconomics often raise concerns about unwarranted welfare conclusions and data mining. This paper illustrates these concerns with a thought experiment, based on the debate in environmental economics about the appropriate discount rate in climate change analyses: I set up an economy where a social evaluator wants to determine the optimal time path of emission levels, and seeks advice for this from an old-style neo-classical macroeconomist and a new neo-classical (modern) macroeconomist; I then describe how both economists analyze the economy, their policy advice, and their mistakes. I then use the insights from this thought experiment to point out some pitfalls of the modern macroeconomic methodology

Albiglutide and cardiovascular outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease (Harmony Outcomes): a double-blind, randomised placebo-controlled trial

Background: Glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonists differ in chemical structure, duration of action, and in their effects on clinical outcomes. The cardiovascular effects of once-weekly albiglutide in type 2 diabetes are unknown. We aimed to determine the safety and efficacy of albiglutide in preventing cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or stroke. Methods: We did a double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled trial in 610 sites across 28 countries. We randomly assigned patients aged 40 years and older with type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease (at a 1:1 ratio) to groups that either received a subcutaneous injection of albiglutide (30–50 mg, based on glycaemic response and tolerability) or of a matched volume of placebo once a week, in addition to their standard care. Investigators used an interactive voice or web response system to obtain treatment assignment, and patients and all study investigators were masked to their treatment allocation. We hypothesised that albiglutide would be non-inferior to placebo for the primary outcome of the first occurrence of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or stroke, which was assessed in the intention-to-treat population. If non-inferiority was confirmed by an upper limit of the 95% CI for a hazard ratio of less than 1·30, closed testing for superiority was prespecified. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02465515. Findings: Patients were screened between July 1, 2015, and Nov 24, 2016. 10 793 patients were screened and 9463 participants were enrolled and randomly assigned to groups: 4731 patients were assigned to receive albiglutide and 4732 patients to receive placebo. On Nov 8, 2017, it was determined that 611 primary endpoints and a median follow-up of at least 1·5 years had accrued, and participants returned for a final visit and discontinuation from study treatment; the last patient visit was on March 12, 2018. These 9463 patients, the intention-to-treat population, were evaluated for a median duration of 1·6 years and were assessed for the primary outcome. The primary composite outcome occurred in 338 (7%) of 4731 patients at an incidence rate of 4·6 events per 100 person-years in the albiglutide group and in 428 (9%) of 4732 patients at an incidence rate of 5·9 events per 100 person-years in the placebo group (hazard ratio 0·78, 95% CI 0·68–0·90), which indicated that albiglutide was superior to placebo (p<0·0001 for non-inferiority; p=0·0006 for superiority). The incidence of acute pancreatitis (ten patients in the albiglutide group and seven patients in the placebo group), pancreatic cancer (six patients in the albiglutide group and five patients in the placebo group), medullary thyroid carcinoma (zero patients in both groups), and other serious adverse events did not differ between the two groups. There were three (<1%) deaths in the placebo group that were assessed by investigators, who were masked to study drug assignment, to be treatment-related and two (<1%) deaths in the albiglutide group. Interpretation: In patients with type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease, albiglutide was superior to placebo with respect to major adverse cardiovascular events. Evidence-based glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonists should therefore be considered as part of a comprehensive strategy to reduce the risk of cardiovascular events in patients with type 2 diabetes. Funding: GlaxoSmithKline

A global experiment on motivating social distancing during the COVID-19 pandemic

Finding communication strategies that effectively motivate social distancing continues to be a global public health priority during the COVID-19 pandemic. This cross-country, preregistered experiment (n = 25,718 from 89 countries) tested hypotheses concerning generalizable positive and negative outcomes of social distancing messages that promoted personal agency and reflective choices (i.e., an autonomy-supportive message) or were restrictive and shaming (i.e., a controlling message) compared with no message at all. Results partially supported experimental hypotheses in that the controlling message increased controlled motivation (a poorly internalized form of motivation relying on shame, guilt, and fear of social consequences) relative to no message. On the other hand, the autonomy-supportive message lowered feelings of defiance compared with the controlling message, but the controlling message did not differ from receiving no message at all. Unexpectedly, messages did not influence autonomous motivation (a highly internalized form of motivation relying on one’s core values) or behavioral intentions. Results supported hypothesized associations between people’s existing autonomous and controlled motivations and self-reported behavioral intentions to engage in social distancing. Controlled motivation was associated with more defiance and less long-term behavioral intention to engage in social distancing, whereas autonomous motivation was associated with less defiance and more short- and long-term intentions to social distance. Overall, this work highlights the potential harm of using shaming and pressuring language in public health communication, with implications for the current and future global health challenges

Finishing the euchromatic sequence of the human genome

The sequence of the human genome encodes the genetic instructions for human physiology, as well as rich information about human evolution. In 2001, the International Human Genome Sequencing Consortium reported a draft sequence of the euchromatic portion of the human genome. Since then, the international collaboration has worked to convert this draft into a genome sequence with high accuracy and nearly complete coverage. Here, we report the result of this finishing process. The current genome sequence (Build 35) contains 2.85 billion nucleotides interrupted by only 341 gaps. It covers ∼99% of the euchromatic genome and is accurate to an error rate of ∼1 event per 100,000 bases. Many of the remaining euchromatic gaps are associated with segmental duplications and will require focused work with new methods. The near-complete sequence, the first for a vertebrate, greatly improves the precision of biological analyses of the human genome including studies of gene number, birth and death. Notably, the human enome seems to encode only 20,000-25,000 protein-coding genes. The genome sequence reported here should serve as a firm foundation for biomedical research in the decades ahead

Inverting the model of genomics data sharing with the NHGRI Genomic Data Science Analysis, Visualization, and Informatics Lab-space

The NHGRI Genomic Data Science Analysis, Visualization, and Informatics Lab-space (AnVIL; https://anvilproject.org) was developed to address a widespread community need for a unified computing environment for genomics data storage, management, and analysis. In this perspective, we present AnVIL, describe its ecosystem and interoperability with other platforms, and highlight how this platform and associated initiatives contribute to improved genomic data sharing efforts. The AnVIL is a federated cloud platform designed to manage and store genomics and related data, enable population-scale analysis, and facilitate collaboration through the sharing of data, code, and analysis results. By inverting the traditional model of data sharing, the AnVIL eliminates the need for data movement while also adding security measures for active threat detection and monitoring and provides scalable, shared computing resources for any researcher. We describe the core data management and analysis components of the AnVIL, which currently consists of Terra, Gen3, Galaxy, RStudio/Bioconductor, Dockstore, and Jupyter, and describe several flagship genomics datasets available within the AnVIL. We continue to extend and innovate the AnVIL ecosystem by implementing new capabilities, including mechanisms for interoperability and responsible data sharing, while streamlining access management. The AnVIL opens many new opportunities for analysis, collaboration, and data sharing that are needed to drive research and to make discoveries through the joint analysis of hundreds of thousands to millions of genomes along with associated clinical and molecular data types