Tsunamis from Tectonic Sources along Caribbean Plate Boundaries

The Caribbean region, home to more than 100 million people, has seen for the last 500 years at Least 75 documented tsunamis (von Hillebrandt-Andrade, 2013). It has been estimated that more than 4500 people have perished as a result (Dunbar et al, 2008; see Figure 2). The Working Group 2 (WG2) of the ICG/CARIBE-EWS in charge of Tsunami Hazard Assessment is a multinational group of experts from and outside the Caribbean region currently focusing on various tsunami aspects. The WG2 has been assigned the task of compiling a list of most credible sources from tectonic origin for the Caribbean nations. For this poster, a subgroup within the WG2 has been formed to evaluate published literature on tsunami sources and develop a comprehensive list based solely on credible sources evaluated through geological and geophysical studies, and seismology. This poster presents the sources and their justification as most-probable tsunami sources based on the context of crustal deformation due to Caribbean plate interacting with neighboring plates and deforming microplates within the plate`s boundaries.La región del Caribe, hogar de más de 100 millones de personas, ha visto durante los últimos 500 años al menos 75 tsunamis documentados (von Hillebrandt-Andrade, 2013). Se ha estimado que más de 4500 personas han perecido como resultado (Dunbar et al, 2008; ver Figura 2). El Grupo de Trabajo 2 (WG2) del ICG / CARIBE-EWS a cargo de la Evaluación de Peligros de Tsunami es un grupo multinacional de expertos de y fuera de la región del Caribe que actualmente se enfoca en varios aspectos del tsunami. Al WG2 se le ha asignado la tarea de compilar una lista de las fuentes más creíbles de origen tectónico para las naciones del Caribe. Para este póster, se formó un subgrupo dentro del WG2 para evaluar la literatura publicada sobre fuentes de tsunami y desarrollar una lista completa basada únicamente en fuentes creíbles evaluadas a través de estudios geológicos y geofísicos, y sismología. Este póster presenta las fuentes y su justificación como las fuentes de tsunami más probables basadas en el contexto de la deformación de la corteza debido a que la placa del Caribe interactúa con las placas vecinas y deforma las microplacas dentro de los límites de la placa.RONMA

Accelerating global science on tsunami hazard and risk analysis (AGITHAR)

Recent tsunami disasters revealed severe gaps between the anticipated level of hazard and the true extent of the event, with resulting loss of life and property. The severe consequences were underestimated in part due to the lack of rigorous and accepted hazard analysis methods and large uncertainty in forecasting the tsunami source mechanism and strength. Uncertainty and underestimation of the hazard and risk resulted in insufficient preparedness measures. While there is no absolute protection against disasters of the scale of mega tsunamis, a more accurate analysis of the potential risk can help to minimize losses from tsunami. After the major events in 2004 and 2011 many new initiatives originated novel methods for tsunami hazard and risk analysis. However, rigorous performance assessment and evaluation – with respect to guiding principles in tsunami hazard and risk analysis – has not been conducted. In particular, comprehensive uncertainty assessments and related standards are required in order to implement more robust and reliable hazard analysis strategies and, ultimately, better mitigate tsunami impact. This is the core challenge of the proposed COST Action Accelerating Global science In Tsunami HAzard and Risk analysis (AGITHAR). In our presentation we will demonstrate first results of the Action, assessing research gaps, open questions, and a very coarse roadmap for future research.peer-reviewe

Probabilistic TSUnami Hazard MAPS for the NEAM Region The TSUMAPS NEAM Project

As global awareness of tsunami hazard and risk grows, the North-East Atlantic, the Mediterranean, and connected Seas (NEAM) region still lacks a thorough probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment. The TSUMAPS-NEAM project aims to fill this gap in the NEAM region by 1) producing the first region-wide long-term homogenous Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) from earthquake sources, and by 2) triggering a common tsunami risk management strategy. The specific objectives of the project are tackled by the following four consecutive actions: 1) Conduct a state-of-the-art, standardized, and updatable PTHA with full uncertainty treatment; 2) Review the entire process with international experts; 3) Produce the PTHA database, with documentation of the entire hazard assessment process; and 4) Publicize the results through an awareness raising and education phase, and a capacity building phase. This presentation will illustrate the project layout, summarize its current status of advancement including the firs preliminary release of the assessment, and outline its connections with similar initiatives in the international context

The Global Tsunami Model GTM

The large tsunami disasters of the last two decades have highlighted the need for a thorough understanding of the risk posed by relatively infrequent but disastrous tsunamis and the importance of a comprehensive and consistent methodology for quantifying the hazard. In the last few years, several methods for probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis have been developed and applied to different parts of the world. In an effort to coordinate and streamline these activities and make progress towards implementing the Sendai Framework of Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR) we have initiated a Global Tsunami Model (GTM) working group with the aim of i) enhancing our understanding of tsunami hazard and risk on a global scale and developing standards and guidelines for it, ii) providing a portfolio of validated tools for probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk assessment at a range of scales, and iii) developing a global tsunami hazard reference model. This GTM initiative has grown out of the tsunami component of the Global Assessment of Risk (GAR15), which has resulted in an initial global model of probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk. Started as an informal gathering of scientists interested in advancing tsunami hazard analysis, the GTM is currently in the process of being formalized through letters of interest from participating institutions. The initiative has now been endorsed by the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) and the World Bank's Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR). We will provide an update on the state of the project and the overall technical framework, and discuss the technical issues that are currently being addressed, including earthquake source recurrence models, the use of aleatory variability and epistemic uncertainty, and preliminary results for a probabilistic global hazard assessment, which is an update of the model included in UNISDR GAR15

Validation and inter-comparison of models for landslide tsunami generation

10.1016/j.ocemod.2021.101943OCEAN MODELLING17

Towards the new Thematic Core Service Tsunami within the EPOS Research Infrastructure

Tsunamis constitute a significant hazard for European coastal populations, and the impact of tsunami events worldwide can extend well beyond the coastal regions directly affected. Understanding the complex mechanisms of tsunami generation, propagation, and inundation, as well as managing the tsunami risk, requires multidisciplinary research and infrastructures that cross national boundaries. Recent decades have seen both great advances in tsunami science and consolidation of the European tsunami research community. A recurring theme has been the need for a sustainable platform for coordinated tsunami community activities and a hub for tsunami services. Following about three years of preparation, in July 2021, the European tsunami community attained the status of Candidate Thematic Core Service (cTCS) within the European Plate Observing System (EPOS) Research Infrastructure. Within a transition period of three years, the Tsunami candidate TCS is anticipated to develop into a fully operational EPOS TCS. We here outline the path taken to reach this point, and the envisaged form of the future EPOS TCS Tsunami. Our cTCS is planned to be organised within four thematic pillars: (1) Support to Tsunami Service Providers, (2) Tsunami Data, (3) Numerical Models, and (4) Hazard and Risk Products. We outline how identified needs in tsunami science and tsunami risk mitigation will be addressed within this structure and how participation within EPOS will become an integration point for community development