Treatment success in pragmatic randomised controlled trials: a review of trials funded by the UK Health Technology Assessment programme

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Previous research reviewed treatment success and whether the collective uncertainty principle is met in RCTs in the US National Cancer Institute portfolio. This paper classifies clinical trials funded by the UK HTA programme by results using the method applied to the US Cancer Institute trials, and compares the two portfolios.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Data on all completed randomised controlled trials funded by the HTA programme 1993-2008 were extracted. Each trial's primary results was classified into six categories; 1) statistically significant in favour of the new treatment, 2) statistically significant in favour of the control treatment 3) true negative, 4) truly inconclusive, 5) inconclusive in favour of new treatment or 6) inconclusive in favour of control treatment. Trials were classified by comparing the 95% confidence interval for the difference in primary outcome to the difference specified in the sample size calculation. The results were compared with Djulbegovic's analysis of NCI trials.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Data from 51 superiority trials were included, involving over 48,000 participants and a range of diseases and interventions. 85 primary comparisons were available because some trials had more than two randomised arms or had several primary outcomes. The new treatment had superior results (whether significant or not) in 61% of the comparisons (52/85 95% CI 49.9% to 71.6%). The results were conclusive in 46% of the comparisons (19% statistically significant in favour of the new treatment, 5% statistically significant in favour of the control and 22% true negative). The results were classified as truly inconclusive (i.e. failed to answer the question asked) for 24% of comparisons (20/85). HTA trials included fewer truly inconclusive and statistically significant results and more results rated as true negative than NCI trials.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The pattern of results in HTA trials is similar to that of the National Cancer Institute portfolio. Differences that existed were plausible given the differences in the types of trials -HTA trials are more pragmatic. The results indicate HTA trials are compatible with equipoise. This classification usefully summarises the results from clinical trials and enables comparisons of different portfolios of trials.</p

What are the characteristics of an application (or team) which are associated with success or failure of an application to the NIHR HTA programme for research funding?

This article is part of the supplement: Clinical Trials Methodology Conference 2011. <br/

Carbon cost of pragmatic randomised controlled trials: retrospective analysis of sample of trials

Objective To calculate the global warming potential, in carbon dioxide (CO2) equivalent emissions, from a sample of pragmatic randomised controlled trials

A systematic review of models to predict recruitment to multicentre clinical trials

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Less than one third of publicly funded trials managed to recruit according to their original plan often resulting in request for additional funding and/or time extensions. The aim was to identify models which might be useful to a major public funder of randomised controlled trials when estimating likely time requirements for recruiting trial participants. The requirements of a useful model were identified as usability, based on experience, able to reflect time trends, accounting for centre recruitment and contribution to a commissioning decision.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A systematic review of English language articles using MEDLINE and EMBASE. Search terms included: randomised controlled trial, patient, accrual, predict, enrol, models, statistical; Bayes Theorem; Decision Theory; Monte Carlo Method and Poisson. Only studies discussing prediction of recruitment to trials using a modelling approach were included. Information was extracted from articles by one author, and checked by a second, using a pre-defined form.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Out of 326 identified abstracts, only 8 met all the inclusion criteria. Of these 8 studies examined, there are five major classes of model discussed: the unconditional model, the conditional model, the Poisson model, Bayesian models and Monte Carlo simulation of Markov models. None of these meet all the pre-identified needs of the funder.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>To meet the needs of a number of research programmes, a new model is required as a matter of importance. Any model chosen should be validated against both retrospective and prospective data, to ensure the predictions it gives are superior to those currently used.</p

The ansamycin antibiotic, rifamycin SV, inhibits BCL6 transcriptional repression and forms a complex with the BCL6-BTB/POZ domain

BCL6 is a transcriptional repressor that is over-expressed due to chromosomal translocations, or other abnormalities, in ~40% of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma. BCL6 interacts with co-repressor, SMRT, and this is essential for its role in lymphomas. Peptide or small molecule inhibitors, which prevent the association of SMRT with BCL6, inhibit transcriptional repression and cause apoptosis of lymphoma cells in vitro and in vivo. In order to discover compounds, which have the potential to be developed into BCL6 inhibitors, we screened a natural product library. The ansamycin antibiotic, rifamycin SV, inhibited BCL6 transcriptional repression and NMR spectroscopy confirmed a direct interaction between rifamycin SV and BCL6. To further determine the characteristics of compounds binding to BCL6-POZ we analyzed four other members of this family and showed that rifabutin, bound most strongly. An X-ray crystal structure of the rifabutin-BCL6 complex revealed that rifabutin occupies a partly non-polar pocket making interactions with tyrosine58, asparagine21 and arginine24 of the BCL6-POZ domain. Importantly these residues are also important for the interaction of BLC6 with SMRT. This work demonstrates a unique approach to developing a structure activity relationship for a compound that will form the basis of a therapeutically useful BCL6 inhibitor

A Case Matched Gender Comparison Transcriptomic Screen Identifies eIF4E and eIF5 as Potential Prognostic and Tractable Biomarkers in Male Breast Cancer

Purpose: Breast cancer (BC) affects both genders, but is understudied in men. Although still rare, male BC is being diagnosed more frequently. Treatments are wholly informed by clinical studies conducted in women, based on assumptions that underlying biology is similar. Experimental design: A transcriptomic investigation of male and female BC was performed, confirming transcriptomic data in silico. Biomarkers were immunohistochemically assessed in 697 MBCs (n=477, training; n=220, validation set) and quantified in pre- and post-treatment samples from a male BC patient receiving Everolimus and PI3K/mTOR inhibitor. Results: Gender-specific gene expression patterns were identified. eIF transcripts were up-regulated in MBC. eIF4E and eIF5 were negatively prognostic for overall survival alone (Log rank; p=0.013; HR=1.77, 1.12-2.8 and p=0.035; HR=1.68, 1.03-2.74, respectively), or when co-expressed (p=0.01; HR=2.66, 1.26-5.63), confirmed in the validation set. This remained upon multivariate Cox regression analysis (eIF4E p=0.016; HR 2.38 (1.18-4.8), eIF5 p=0.022; HR 2.55 (1.14-5.7); co-expression p=0.001; HR=7.04 (2.22-22.26)). Marked reduction in eIF4E and eIF5 expression was seen post BEZ235/Everolimus, with extended survival. Conclusions: Translational initiation pathway inhibition could be of clinical utility in male BC patients overexpressing eIF4E and eIF5. With mTOR inhibitors which target this pathway now in the clinic, these biomarkers may represent new targets for therapeutic intervention, although further independent validation is required

Implications of within-farm transmission for network dynamics:Consequences for the spread of avian influenza

AbstractThe importance of considering coupled interactions across multiple population scales has not previously been studied for highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in the British commercial poultry industry. By simulating the within-flock transmission of HPAI using a deterministic S-E-I-R model, and by incorporating an additional environmental class representing infectious faeces, we tracked the build-up of infectious faeces within a poultry house over time. A measure of the transmission risk (TR) was computed for each farm by linking the amount of infectious faeces present each day of an outbreak with data describing the daily on-farm visit schedules for a major British catching company. Larger flocks tended to have greater levels of these catching-team visits. However, where density-dependent contact was assumed, faster outbreak detection (according to an assumed mortality threshold) led to a decreased opportunity for catching-team visits to coincide with an outbreak. For this reason, maximum TR-levels were found for mid-range flock sizes (~25,000–35,000 birds). When assessing all factors simultaneously using multivariable linear regression on the simulated outputs, those related to the pattern of catching-team visits had the largest effect on TR, with the most important movement-related factor depending on the mode of transmission. Using social network analysis on a further database to inform a measure of between-farm connectivity, we identified a large fraction of farms (28%) that had both a high TR and a high potential impact at the between farm level. Our results have counter-intuitive implications for between-farm spread that could not be predicted based on flock size alone, and together with further knowledge of the relative importance of transmission risk and impact, could have implications for improved targeting of control measures

"Flogging dead horses": evaluating when have clinical trials achieved sufficiency and stability? A case study in cardiac rehabilitation

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Most systematic reviews conclude that another clinical trial is needed. Measures of sufficiency and stability may indicate whether this is true.</p> <p>Objectives: To show how evidence accumulated on centre-based versus home-based cardiac rehabilitation, including estimates of sufficiency and stability</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Systematic reviews of clinical trials of home versus centre-based cardiac rehabilitation were used to develop a cumulative meta-analysis over time. We calculated the standardised mean difference (SMD) in effect, confidence intervals and indicators of sufficiency and stability. Sufficiency refers to whether the meta-analytic database adequately demonstrates that an intervention works - is statistically superior to another. It does this by assessing the number of studies with null results that would be required to make the meta-analytic effect non-statistically significant. Stability refers to whether the direction and size of the effect is stable as new studies are added to the meta-analysis.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The standardised mean effect difference reduced over fourteen comparisons from a non-significant difference favouring home-based cardiac rehabilitation to a very small difference favouring hospital (SMD -0.10, 95% CI -0.32 to 0.13). This difference did not reach the sufficiency threshold (failsafe ratio 0.039 < 1) but did achieve the criteria for stability (cumulative slope 0.003 < 0.005).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The evidence points to a relatively small effect difference which was stable but not sufficient in terms of the suggested thresholds. Sufficiency should arguably be based on substantive significance and decided by patients. Research on patient preferences should be the priority. Sufficiency and stability measures are useful tools that need to be tested in further case studies.</p