The modulating role of questions in repeated action

Repeated action can be more or less under habitual control, depending on how often it has been repeated, how complex it is, and how stable the context is. We propose that in situations where behavior is somewhat habitual but still flexible, repeated action can be modified by self-talk questions: Instead of a direct cue-behavior association, the situation may lead people to ask themselves a question, which then prompts action. Across three studies, participants showed below-baseline rates of behavior repetition when they were presented with the negative question "Which one should I not choose?". In contrast, people tended to repeat their behavior above baseline levels when they were presented with the affirmative question "Which one should I choose?". In Experiment 3, this effect vanished when repetition was explicitly requested, providing evidence for our hypothesis that self-talk most effectively guides behavior when behavior is still flexible

Going all in or going slow: Preferences for radical versus incremental trajectories of behavior change

There are different temporal paths to achieving a goal such as exercising. Somebody with a radical change trajectory will invest large amounts of time and effort into the goal early and then attempt to sustain this level of effort over time. In contrast, somebody with an incremental change trajectory will start small and, over time, increase time and effort until the goal is met. Study 1 (N = 250) tested a measure of preferences for different trajectories as an individual difference. The measure had acceptable convergent and divergent validity and allowed us to detect that preferences for radical change predicted better trait self-regulation and less procrastination. Study 2 (N = 87) investigated how each type of trajectory is mentally represented. Results indicated that radical and incremental change goals are represented verbally in the form of self-talk and suggested that radical change goals are associated with a more action-oriented mindset. Study 3 (N = 176) included an experimental manipulation of change preferences and longitudinal measures of their effects on language learning over the course of one week. Beginners did not form radical plans even when the manipulation had successfully convinced them of the convenience of radical trajectories. In contrast, advanced learners who pursued radical trajectories did set radical intentions and subsequently dedicated 40-50 minutes more practice time throughout the week than those who set incremental intentions. The contribution of this doctoral thesis was to introduce a conceptualization of change trajectory preferences as a new construct and examine predictions about their effects

Digital Trace Data and Demographic Forecasting: How Well Did Google Predict the US COVID-19 Baby Bust?

At the onset of the first wave of COVID-19 in the United States, the pandemic\u27s effect on future birthrates was unknown. In this paper, we assess whether digital trace data—often touted as a panacea for traditional data scarcity—held the potential to accurately predict fertility change caused by the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. Specifically, we produced state-level, dynamic future predictions of the pandemic\u27s effect on birthrates in the United States using pregnancy-related Google search data. Importantly, these predictions were made in October 2020 (and revised in February 2021), well before the birth effect of the pandemic could have possibly been known. Our analysis predicted that between November 2020 and February 2021, monthly United States births would drop sharply by approximately 12 percent, then begin to rebound while remaining depressed through August 2021. While these predictions were generally accurate in terms of the magnitude and timing of the trough, there were important misses regarding the speed at which these reductions materialized and rebounded. This ex post evaluation of an ex ante prediction serves as a powerful demonstration of the “promise and pitfalls” of digital trace data in demographic research

(How) can economic experiments inform EU agricultural policy?

This report provides an overview of the potential contribution of economic experiments to the Common Agricultural Policy evaluation toolbox. The methodology of economic experiments is briefly described in chapter 2. Chapter 3 presents examples of experimental studies relevant for the analysis of the Common Agricultural Policy. Chapter 4 discusses whether there is room for economic experiments in the EU evaluation toolbox. Chapter 5 identifies the main challenges when implementing economic experiments. Chapter 6 provides a set of recommendations, arising from the discussions between the authors of this report and policy officers from DG AGRI, relative to the introduction of economic experiments in the CAP evaluation toolbox.JRC.J.4-Agriculture and Life Sciences in the Econom

Experimental analysis on the influence of freeform bending on Barkhausen noise for steel tubes

Freeform bending with a movable die makes it possible to bend complex structures and seamless radii without changing the bending tools. Currently, most research focuses on minimizing the geometrical deviations without considering the mechanical properties of the bent tubes. A previous work showed, that the geometry can be decoupled from the mechanical properties with non-tangential bending [1]. The implementation of a soft sensor based on ultrasonic contact impedance measurements (UCI) of the property-controlled freeform bending has also been examined [2], as well as a structure for closed-loop control based on material properties [3]. The present work deals with a micro-magnetic sensor and Barkhausen noise (BHN) and investigates its suitability for the closed-loop control. For this purpose, different processing routes for freeform-bent steel tubes are experimentally investigated by their characteristic BHN. In addition to an existing simulation model, a data basis for the impact of freeform bending parameters is built to extend the existing model of a property-based closed-loop control

Language and theory of mind in autism spectrum disorder : the relationship between complement syntax and false belief task performance.

This study aimed to test the hypothesis that children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) use their knowledge of complement syntax as a means of “hacking out” solutions to false belief tasks, despite lacking a representational theory of mind (ToM). Participants completed a “memory for complements” task, a measure of receptive vocabulary, and traditional location change and unexpected contents false belief tasks. Consistent with predictions, the correlation between complement syntax score and location change task performance was significantly stronger within the ASD group than within the comparison group. However, contrary to predictions, complement syntax score was not significantly correlated with unexpected contents task performance within either group. Possible explanations for this pattern of results are considered

Impact of higher spatial atmospheric resolution on precipitation extremes over land in global climate models

Finer grids in global climate models could lead to an improvement in the simulation of precipitation extremes. We assess the influence on model performance of increasing spatial resolution by evaluating pairs of high‐ and low‐resolution forced atmospheric simulations from six global climate models (generally the latest CMIP6 version) on a common 1° × 1° grid. The differences in tuning between the lower and higher resolution versions are as limited as possible, which allows the influence of higher resolution to be assessed exclusively. We focus on the 1985–2014 climatology of annual extremes of daily precipitation over global land, and models are compared to observations from different sources (i.e., in situ‐based and satellite‐based) to enable consideration of observational uncertainty. Finally, we address regional features of model performance based on four indices characterizing different aspects of precipitation extremes. Our analysis highlights good agreement between models that precipitation extremes are more intense at higher resolution. We find that the spread among observations is substantial and can be as large as intermodel differences, which makes the quantitative evaluation of model performance difficult. However, consistently across the four precipitation extremes indices that we investigate, models often show lower skill at higher resolution compared to their corresponding lower resolution version. Our findings suggest that increasing spatial resolution alone is not sufficient to obtain a systematic improvement in the simulation of precipitation extremes, and other improvements (e.g., physics and tuning) may be required

Optical genome mapping identifies a homozygous deletion in the non-coding region of the SCN9A gene in individuals from the same family with congenital insensitivity to pain

We report an index patient with complete insensitivity to pain and a history of painless fractures, joint hypermobility, and behavioral problems. The index patient descends from a family with notable cases among his maternal relatives, including his aunt and his mother’s first cousin, both of whom suffer from congenital insensitivity to pain. The patient had normal results for prior genetic testing: fragile-X syndrome testing, chromosomal microarray analysis, and exome sequencing. Optical genome mapping detected a homozygous deletion affecting the noncoding 5′ untranslated region (UTR) and the first non-coding exon of the SCN9A gene in all affected family members, compatible with recessive disease transmission. Pathogenic homozygous loss-of-function variants in the SCN9A gene are associated with impaired pain sensation in humans. Optical genome mapping can thus detect pathogenic structural variants in patients without molecular etiology by standard diagnostic procedures and is a more accessible diagnostic tool than short-read or long-read whole-genome sequencing

Strong constraints on aerosol-cloud interactions from volcanic eruptions.

Aerosols have a potentially large effect on climate, particularly through their interactions with clouds, but the magnitude of this effect is highly uncertain. Large volcanic eruptions produce sulfur dioxide, which in turn produces aerosols; these eruptions thus represent a natural experiment through which to quantify aerosol-cloud interactions. Here we show that the massive 2014-2015 fissure eruption in Holuhraun, Iceland, reduced the size of liquid cloud droplets-consistent with expectations-but had no discernible effect on other cloud properties. The reduction in droplet size led to cloud brightening and global-mean radiative forcing of around -0.2 watts per square metre for September to October 2014. Changes in cloud amount or cloud liquid water path, however, were undetectable, indicating that these indirect effects, and cloud systems in general, are well buffered against aerosol changes. This result will reduce uncertainties in future climate projections, because we are now able to reject results from climate models with an excessive liquid-water-path response

Discovery and Structure Activity Relationship of Small Molecule Inhibitors of Toxic β-Amyloid-42 Fibril Formation

Increasing evidence implicates Aβ peptides self-assembly and fibril formation as crucial events in the pathogenesis of Alzheimer disease. Thus, inhibiting Aβ aggregation, among others, has emerged as a potential therapeutic intervention for this disorder. Herein, we employed 3-aminopyrazole as a key fragment in our design of non-dye compounds capable of interacting with Aβ42 via a donor-acceptor-donor hydrogen bond pattern complementary to that of the β-sheet conformation of Aβ42. The initial design of the compounds was based on connecting two 3-aminopyrazole moieties via a linker to identify suitable scaffold molecules. Additional aryl substitutions on the two 3-aminopyrazole moieties were also explored to enhance π-π stacking/hydrophobic interactions with amino acids of Aβ42. The efficacy of these compounds on inhibiting Aβ fibril formation and toxicity in vitro was assessed using a combination of biophysical techniques and viability assays. Using structure activity relationship data from the in vitro assays, we identified compounds capable of preventing pathological self-assembly of Aβ42 leading to decreased cell toxicity