LpL^p-Spectral theory of locally symmetric spaces with QQ-rank one

We study the $L^p$-spectrum of the Laplace-Beltrami operator on certain complete locally symmetric spaces $M=\Gamma\backslash X$ with finite volume and arithmetic fundamental group $\Gamma$ whose universal covering $X$ is a symmetric space of non-compact type. We also show, how the obtained results for locally symmetric spaces can be generalized to manifolds with cusps of rank one

Chemical analysis of pottery demonstrates prehistoric origin for high-altitude alpine dairying

The European high Alps are internationally renowned for their dairy produce, which are of huge cultural and economic significance to the region. Although the recent history of alpine dairying has been well studied, virtually nothing is known regarding the origins of this practice. This is due to poor preservation of high altitude archaeological sites and the ephemeral nature of transhumance economic practices. Archaeologists have suggested that stone structures that appear around 3,000 years ago are associated with more intense seasonal occupation of the high Alps and perhaps the establishment of new economic strategies. Here, we report on organic residue analysis of small fragments of pottery sherds that are occasionally preserved both at these sites and earlier prehistoric rock-shelters. Based mainly on isotopic criteria, dairy lipids could only be identified on ceramics from the stone structures, which date to the Iron Age (ca. 3,000 - 2,500 BP), providing the earliest evidence of this practice in the high Alps. Dairy production in such a marginal environment implies a high degree of risk even by today’s standards. We postulate that this practice was driven by population increase and climate deterioration that put pressure on lowland agropastoral systems and the establishment of more extensive trade networks, leading to greater demand for highly nutritious and transportable dairy products

Increasing stomatal conductance inresponse to rising atmospheric CO2

Background and Aims: Studies have indicated that plant stomatal conductance (gs) decreases in response to elevated atmospheric CO2, a phenomenon of significance for the global hydrological cycle. However, gs increases across certain CO2 ranges have been predicted by optimisation models. The aim of this work was to demonstrate that under certain environmental condition, gs can increase in response to elevated CO2. Methods: When using (i) an extensive, up-to-date, synthesis of gs responses in FACE experiments, (ii) in situ measurements across four biomes showing dynamic gs responses to a CO2 rise of ~50ppm (characterising the change in this greenhouse gas over the past three decades) and (iii) a photosynthesis-stomatal conductance model, it is demonstrated that gs can in some cases increase in response to increasing atmospheric CO2. Key Results: Field observations are corroborated by an extensive synthesis of gs responses in FACE experiments showing that 11.8% of gs responses under experimentally elevated CO2 are positive. They are further supported by a strong data-model fit (r2=0.607) using a stomatal optimization model applied to the field gs dataset. A parameter space identified in the Farquhar-Ball-Berry photosynthesis-stomatal conductance model confirms field observations of increasing gs under elevated CO2 in hot dry conditions. It was shown that contrary to the general assumption, positive gs responses to elevated CO2, although relatively rare, are a feature of woody taxa adapted to warm, low-humidity conditions, and that this response is also demonstrated in global simulations using the Community Land Model (CLM4). Conclusions: The results contradict the over-simplistic notion that global vegetation always responds with decreasing gs to elevated CO2, a finding that has important implications for predicting future vegetation feedbacks on the hydrological cycle at the regional level.Irish Research CouncilScience Foundation Irelan

Chronic Exposure of Corals to Fine Sediments: Lethal and Sub-Lethal Impacts

Understanding the sedimentation and turbidity thresholds for corals is critical in assessing the potential impacts of dredging projects in tropical marine systems. In this study, we exposed two species of coral sampled from offshore locations to six levels of total suspended solids (TSS) for 16 weeks in the laboratory, including a 4 week recovery period. Dose-response relationships were developed to quantify the lethal and sub-lethal thresholds of sedimentation and turbidity for the corals. The sediment treatments affected the horizontal foliaceous species (Montipora aequituberculata) more than the upright branching species (Acropora millepora). The lowest sediment treatments that caused full colony mortality were 30 mg l−1 TSS (25 mg cm−2 day−1) for M. aequituberculata and 100 mg l−1 TSS (83 mg cm−2 day−1) for A. millepora after 12 weeks. Coral mortality generally took longer than 4 weeks and was closely related to sediment accumulation on the surface of the corals. While measurements of damage to photosystem II in the symbionts and reductions in lipid content and growth indicated sub-lethal responses in surviving corals, the most reliable predictor of coral mortality in this experiment was long-term sediment accumulation on coral tissue

SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in a tri-national urban area is dominated by a B.1 lineage variant linked to a mass gathering event.

The first case of SARS-CoV-2 in Basel, Switzerland was detected on February 26th 2020. We present a phylogenetic study to explore viral introduction and evolution during the exponential early phase of the local COVID-19 outbreak from February 26th until March 23rd. We sequenced SARS-CoV-2 naso-oropharyngeal swabs from 746 positive tests that were performed at the University Hospital Basel during the study period. We successfully generated 468 high quality genomes from unique patients and called variants with our COVID-19 Pipeline (COVGAP), and analysed viral genetic diversity using PANGOLIN taxonomic lineages. To identify introduction and dissemination events we incorporated global SARS-CoV-2 genomes and inferred a time-calibrated phylogeny. Epidemiological data from patient questionnaires was used to facilitate the interpretation of phylogenetic observations. The early outbreak in Basel was dominated by lineage B.1 (83·6%), detected first on March 2nd, although the first sample identified belonged to B.1.1. Within B.1, 68·2% of our samples fall within a clade defined by the SNP C15324T ('Basel cluster'), including 157 identical sequences at the root of the 'Basel cluster', some of which we can specifically trace to regional spreading events. We infer the origin of B.1-C15324T to mid-February in our tri-national region. The other genomes map broadly over the global phylogenetic tree, showing several introduction events from and/or dissemination to other regions of the world via travellers. Family transmissions can also be traced in our data. A single lineage variant dominated the outbreak in the Basel area while other lineages, such as the first (B.1.1), did not propagate. A mass gathering event was the predominant initial source of cases, with travel returners and family transmissions to a lesser extent. We highlight the importance of adding specific questions to epidemiological questionnaires, to obtain data on attendance of large gatherings and their locations, as well as travel history, to effectively identify routes of transmissions in up-coming outbreaks. This phylogenetic analysis in concert with epidemiological and contact tracing data, allows connection and interpretation of events, and can inform public health interventions. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04351503

External validation of the PAGE-B score for HCC risk prediction in people living with HIV/HBV coinfection

Background & Aims: HBV coinfection is common among people living with HIV (PLWH) and is the most important cause of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). While risk prediction tools for HCC have been validated in patients with HBV monoinfection, they have not been evaluated in PLWH. Thus, we performed an external validation of PAGE-B in people with HIV/HBV coinfection. Methods: We included data on PLWH from four European cohorts who were positive for HBsAg and did not have HCC before starting tenofovir. We estimated the predictive performance of PAGE-B for HCC occurrence over 15 years in patients receiving tenofovir-containing antiretroviral therapy. Model discrimination was assessed after multiple imputation using Cox regression with the prognostic index as a covariate, and by calculating Harrell's c-index. Calibration was assessed by comparing our cumulative incidence with the PAGE-B derivation study using Kaplan-Meier curves. Results: In total, 2,963 individuals with HIV/HBV coinfection on tenofovir-containing antiretroviral therapy were included. PAGE-B was <10 in 26.5%, 10–17 in 57.7%, and ≥18 in 15.7% of patients. Within a median follow-up of 9.6 years, HCC occurred in 68 individuals (2.58/1,000 patient-years, 95% CI 2.03–3.27). The regression slope of the prognostic index for developing HCC within 15 years was 0.93 (95% CI 0.61–1.25), and the pooled c-index was 0.77 (range 0.73–0.80), both indicating good model discrimination. The cumulative incidence of HCC was lower in our study compared to the derivation study. A PAGE-B cut-off of <10 had a negative predictive value of 99.4% for the development of HCC within 5 years. Restricting efforts to individuals with a PAGE-B of ≥10 would spare unnecessary HCC screening in 27% of individuals. Conclusions: For individuals with HIV/HBV coinfection, PAGE-B is a valid tool to determine the need for HCC screening. Impact and implications: Chronic HBV infection is the most important cause of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) among people living with HIV. Valid risk prediction may enable better targeting of HCC screening efforts to high-risk individuals. We aimed to validate PAGE-B, a risk prediction tool that is based on age, sex, and platelets, in 2,963 individuals with HIV/HBV coinfection who received tenofovir-containing antiretroviral therapy. In the present study, PAGE-B showed good discrimination, adequate calibration, and a cut-off of <10 had a negative predictive value of 99.4% for the development of HCC within 5 years. These results indicate that PAGE-B is a simple and valid risk prediction tool to determine the need for HCC screening among people living with HIV and HBV

Determinants of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to guide vaccination strategy in an urban area.

Transmission chains within small urban areas (accommodating ∼30 per cent of the European population) greatly contribute to case burden and economic impact during the ongoing coronavirus pandemic and should be a focus for preventive measures to achieve containment. Here, at very high spatio-temporal resolution, we analysed determinants of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission in a European urban area, Basel-City (Switzerland). We combined detailed epidemiological, intra-city mobility and socio-economic data sets with whole-genome sequencing during the first SARS-CoV-2 wave. For this, we succeeded in sequencing 44 per cent of all reported cases from Basel-City and performed phylogenetic clustering and compartmental modelling based on the dominating viral variant (B.1-C15324T; 60 per cent of cases) to identify drivers and patterns of transmission. Based on these results we simulated vaccination scenarios and corresponding healthcare system burden (intensive care unit (ICU) occupancy). Transmissions were driven by socio-economically weaker and highly mobile population groups with mostly cryptic transmissions which lacked genetic and identifiable epidemiological links. Amongst more senior population transmission was clustered. Simulated vaccination scenarios assuming 60-90 per cent transmission reduction and 70-90 per cent reduction of severe cases showed that prioritising mobile, socio-economically weaker populations for vaccination would effectively reduce case numbers. However, long-term ICU occupation would also be effectively reduced if senior population groups were prioritised, provided there were no changes in testing and prevention strategies. Reducing SARS-CoV-2 transmission through vaccination strongly depends on the efficacy of the deployed vaccine. A combined strategy of protecting risk groups by extensive testing coupled with vaccination of the drivers of transmission (i.e. highly mobile groups) would be most effective at reducing the spread of SARS-CoV-2 within an urban area

Global Genomic Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 RNA Dependent RNA Polymerase Evolution and Antiviral Drug Resistance.

A variety of antiviral treatments for COVID-19 have been investigated, involving many repurposed drugs. Currently, the SARS-CoV-2 RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp, encoded by nsp12-nsp7-nsp8) has been targeted by numerous inhibitors, e.g., remdesivir, the only provisionally approved treatment to-date, although the clinical impact of these interventions remains inconclusive. However, the potential emergence of antiviral resistance poses a threat to the efficacy of any successful therapies on a wide scale. Here, we propose a framework to monitor the emergence of antiviral resistance, and as a proof of concept, we address the interaction between RdRp and remdesivir. We show that SARS-CoV-2 RdRp is under purifying selection, that potential escape mutations are rare in circulating lineages, and that those mutations, where present, do not destabilise RdRp. In more than 56,000 viral genomes from 105 countries from the first pandemic wave, we found negative selective pressure affecting nsp12 (Tajima's D = -2.62), with potential antiviral escape mutations in only 0.3% of sequenced genomes. Potential escape mutations included known key residues, such as Nsp12:Val473 and Nsp12:Arg555. Of the potential escape mutations involved globally, in silico structural models found that they were unlikely to be associated with loss of stability in RdRp. No potential escape mutation was found in a local cohort of remdesivir treated patients. Collectively, these findings indicate that RdRp is a suitable drug target, and that remdesivir does not seem to exert high selective pressure. We anticipate our framework to be the starting point of a larger effort for a global monitoring of drug resistance throughout the COVID-19 pandemic