Near real-time forecasting for cholera decision making in Haiti after Hurricane Matthew

Computational models of cholera transmission can provide objective insights into the course of an ongoing epidemic and aid decision making on allocation of health care resources. However, models are typically designed, calibrated and interpreted post-hoc. Here, we report the efforts of a team from academia, field research and humanitarian organizations to model in near real-time the Haitian cholera outbreak after Hurricane Matthew in October 2016, to assess risk and to quantitatively estimate the efficacy of a then ongoing vaccination campaign. A rainfall-driven, spatially-explicit meta-community model of cholera transmission was coupled to a data assimilation scheme for computing short-term projections of the epidemic in near real-time. The model was used to forecast cholera incidence for the months after the passage of the hurricane (October-December 2016) and to predict the impact of a planned oral cholera vaccination campaign. Our first projection, from October 29 to December 31, predicted the highest incidence in the departments of Grande Anse and Sud, accounting for about 45% of the total cases in Haiti. The projection included a second peak in cholera incidence in early December largely driven by heavy rainfall forecasts, confirming the urgency for rapid intervention. A second projection (from November 12 to December 31) used updated rainfall forecasts to estimate that 835 cases would be averted by vaccinations in Grande Anse (90% Prediction Interval [PI] 476-1284) and 995 in Sud (90% PI 508-2043). The experience gained by this modeling effort shows that state-of-the-art computational modeling and data-assimilation methods can produce informative near real-time projections of cholera incidence. Collaboration among modelers and field epidemiologists is indispensable to gain fast access to field data and to translate model results into operational recommendations for emergency management during an outbreak. Future efforts should thus draw together multi-disciplinary teams to ensure model outputs are appropriately based, interpreted and communicated

Achieving coordinated national immunity and cholera elimination in Haiti through vaccination: a modelling study

Summary: Background: Cholera was introduced into Haiti in 2010. Since then, more than 820 000 cases and nearly 10 000 deaths have been reported. Oral cholera vaccine (OCV) is safe and effective, but has not been seen as a primary tool for cholera elimination due to a limited period of protection and constrained supplies. Regionally, epidemic cholera is contained to the island of Hispaniola, and the lowest numbers of cases since the epidemic began were reported in 2019. Hence, Haiti may represent a unique opportunity to eliminate cholera with OCV. Methods: In this modelling study, we assessed the probability of elimination, time to elimination, and percentage of cases averted with OCV campaign scenarios in Haiti through simulations from four modelling teams. For a 10-year period from January 19, 2019, to Jan 13, 2029, we compared a no vaccination scenario with five OCV campaign scenarios that differed in geographical scope, coverage, and rollout duration. Teams used weekly department-level reports of suspected cholera cases from the Haiti Ministry of Public Health and Population to calibrate the models and used common vaccine-related assumptions, but other model features were determined independently. Findings: Among campaigns with the same vaccination coverage (70% fully vaccinated), the median probability of elimination after 5 years was 0–18% for no vaccination, 0–33% for 2-year campaigns focused in the two departments with the highest historical incidence, 0–72% for three-department campaigns, and 35–100% for nationwide campaigns. Two-department campaigns averted a median of 12–58% of infections, three-department campaigns averted 29–80% of infections, and national campaigns averted 58–95% of infections. Extending the national campaign to a 5-year rollout (compared to a 2-year rollout), reduced the probability of elimination to 0–95% and the proportion of cases averted to 37–86%. Interpretation: Models suggest that the probability of achieving zero transmission of Vibrio cholerae in Haiti with current methods of control is low, and that bolder action is needed to promote elimination of cholera from the region. Large-scale cholera vaccination campaigns in Haiti would offer the opportunity to synchronise nationwide immunity, providing near-term population protection while improvements to water and sanitation promote long-term cholera elimination. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Global Good Fund, Institute for Disease Modeling, Swiss National Science Foundation, and US National Institutes of Health

Myocardial infarction and stroke associated with diuretic based two drug antihypertensive regimens: population based case-control study

Objective To examine the association of myocardial infarction and stroke incidence with several commonly used two drug antihypertensive treatment regimens

Functional Divergence among Silkworm Antimicrobial Peptide Paralogs by the Activities of Recombinant Proteins and the Induced Expression Profiles

Antimicrobial peptides are small-molecule proteins that are usually encoded by multiple-gene families. They play crucial roles in the innate immune response, but reports on the functional divergence of antimicrobial peptide gene families are rare. In this study, 14 paralogs of antimicrobial peptides belonging to cecropin, moricin and gloverin families were recombinantly expressed in pET expression systems. By antimicrobial activity tests, peptides representing paralogs in the same family of cecropin and moricin families, displayed remarkable differences against 10 tested bacteria. The evolutionary rates were relatively fast in the two families, which presented obvious functional divergence among paralogs of each family. Four peptides of gloverin family had similar antimicrobial spectrum and activity against tested bacteria. The gloverin family showed similar antimicrobial function and slow evolutionary rates. By induced transcriptional activity, genes encoding active antimicrobial peptides were upregulated at obviously different levels when silkworm pupae were infected by three types of microbes. Association analysis of antimicrobial activities and induced transcriptional activities indicated that the antimicrobial activities might be positively correlated with induced transcriptional activities in the cecropin and moricin families. These results suggest that representative BmcecB6, BmcecD and Bmmor as the major effector genes have broad antimicrobial spectrum, strong antimicrobial activity and high microbe-induced expression among each family and maybe play crucial roles in eliminating microbial infection

Alain Crosnier’s role in modern carcinology: exploration, international collaboration, and taxonomy

Este artículo contiene 8 páginas, 5 figuras.The French carcinologist and oceanographer Alain Crosnier (1930–2021) had a most influential role in modern carcinology. This tribute reviews his contributions to organising oceanographic expeditions; expanding collections of specimens, particularly from the deep sea; and supporting international collaboration for taxonomic investigations of the rich collections of material obtained from these expeditions. His expertise and enthusiasm also extended to the publication of the results of these investigations.Peer reviewe

Measurement of the t(t)over-bar production cross section in the dilepton channel in pp collisions at √s=8 TeV

The top-antitop quark (t (t) over bar) production cross section is measured in proton-proton collisions at root s = 8 TeV with the CMS experiment at the LHC, using a data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 5.3 fb(-1). The measurement is performed by analysing events with a pair of electrons or muons, or one electron and one muon, and at least two jets, one of which is identified as originating from hadronisation of a bottom quark. The measured cross section is 239 +/- 2 (stat.) +/- 11 (syst.) +/- 6 (lum.) pb, for an assumed top-quark mass of 172.5 GeV, in agreement with the prediction of the standard model

Evolutionary Dynamics of Human Toll-Like Receptors and Their Different Contributions to Host Defense

Infectious diseases have been paramount among the threats to health and survival throughout human evolutionary history. Natural selection is therefore expected to act strongly on host defense genes, particularly on innate immunity genes whose products mediate the direct interaction between the host and the microbial environment. In insects and mammals, the Toll-like receptors (TLRs) appear to play a major role in initiating innate immune responses against microbes. In humans, however, it has been speculated that the set of TLRs could be redundant for protective immunity. We investigated how natural selection has acted upon human TLRs, as an approach to assess their level of biological redundancy. We sequenced the ten human TLRs in a panel of 158 individuals from various populations worldwide and found that the intracellular TLRs—activated by nucleic acids and particularly specialized in viral recognition—have evolved under strong purifying selection, indicating their essential non-redundant role in host survival. Conversely, the selective constraints on the TLRs expressed on the cell surface—activated by compounds other than nucleic acids—have been much more relaxed, with higher rates of damaging nonsynonymous and stop mutations tolerated, suggesting their higher redundancy. Finally, we tested whether TLRs have experienced spatially-varying selection in human populations and found that the region encompassing TLR10-TLR1-TLR6 has been the target of recent positive selection among non-Africans. Our findings indicate that the different TLRs differ in their immunological redundancy, reflecting their distinct contributions to host defense. The insights gained in this study foster new hypotheses to be tested in clinical and epidemiological genetics of infectious disease

Search for pair-produced resonances decaying to jet pairs in proton-proton collisions at √s=8 TeV

Results are reported of a general search for pair production of heavy resonances decaying to pairs of hadronic jets in events with at least four jets. The study is based on up to 19.4 fb(-1) of integrated luminosity from proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 8 TeV, recorded with the CMS detector at the LHC. Limits are determined on the production of scalar top quarks (top squarks) in the framework of R-parity violating supersymmetry and on the production of color-octet vector bosons (colorons). First limits at the LHC are placed on top squark production for two scenarios. The first assumes decay to a bottom quark and a light-flavor quark and is excluded for masses between 200 and 385 GeV, and the second assumes decay to a pair of light-flavor quarks and is excluded for masses between 200 and 350 GeV at 95% confidence level. Previous limits on colorons decaying to light-flavor quarks are extended to exclude masses from 200 to 835 GeV

Study of Z boson production in pPb collisions at √sNN=5.02 TeV

The production of Z bosons in pPb collisions at root S-NN = 5.02 TeV is studied by the CMS experiment via the electron and muon decay channels. The inclusive cross section is compared to pp collision predictions, and found to scale with the number of elementary nucleon-nucleon collisions. The differential cross sections as a function of the Z boson rapidity and transverse momentum are measured. Though they are found to be consistent within uncertainty with theoretical predictions both with and without nuclear effects, the forward-backward asymmetry suggests the presence of nuclear effects at large rapidities. These results provide new data for constraining nuclear parton distribution functions

Measurement of the t(t)over-bar production cross section in pp collisions at root s=7 TeV in dilepton final states containing a tau

The top quark pair production cross section is measured in dilepton events with one electron or muon, and one hadronically decaying tau lepton from the decay t (t) over bar -> (l nu(l))((sic)(h)nu((sic)))b (b) over bar, (l = e, mu). The data sample corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 2.0 fb(-1) for the electron channel and 2.2 fb(-1) for the muon channel, collected by the CMS detector at the LHC. This is the first measurement of the t (t) over bar cross section explicitly including tau leptons in proton- proton collisions at root s = 7 TeV. The measured value sigma(t (t) over bar) = 143 +/- 14(stat) +/- 22(syst) +/- 3(lumi) pb is consistent with the standard model predictions