Analysing the Role of Fusion Power in the Future Global Energy System

This work presents the EFDA Times model (ETM), developed within the European Fusion Development Agreement (EFDA). ETM is an optimization global energy model which aims at providing the optimum energy system composition in terms of social wealth and sustainability including fusion as an alternative technology in the long term. Two framework scenarios are defined: a Base case scenario with no limits to CO2 emissions, and a 450ppm scenario with a limit of 450ppm in CO2-eq concentrations set by 2100. Previous results showed that in the Base case scenario, with no measures for CO2 emission reductions, fusion does not enter the energy system. However, when CO2 emission restrictions are imposed, the global energy system composition changes completely. In a 450ppm scenario, coal technologies disappear in a few decades, being mainly replaced by nuclear fission technologies which experience a great increase when constrained only by Uranium resources exhaustion. Fission technologies are then replaced by the fusion power plants that start in 2070, with a significant contribution to the global electricity production by 2100. To conclude the work, a sensitivity analysis will be presented on some parameters that may affect the possible role of fusion in the future global energy system

Integration of the environmental management aspect in the optimization of the design and planning of energy systems

The increasing concerns regarding the environmental pollution derived from anthropogenic activities, such as the use of fossil fuels for power generation, has driven many interested parties to seek different alternatives, e.g. use of renewable energy sources, use of “cleaner” fuels and use of more effective technologies, in order to minimize and control the quantity of emissions that are produced during the life cycle of conventional energy sources. In addition to these alternatives, the use of an integrated procedure in which the environmental aspect will be taken into account during the design and planning of energy systems could provide a basis on which emissions reduction will be dealt with a life cycle approach. The work presented in this paper focuses on the examination of the possibilities of integrating the environmental aspects in the preliminary phase of the conventional design and planning of energy systems in conjunction with other parameters, such as financial cost, availability, capacity, location, etc. The integration of the environmental parameter to the design is carried out within a context where Eco-design concepts are applied. Due to the multi-parameter nature of the design procedure, the tools that are used are Life Cycle Analysis and Multi-criteria Analysis. The proposed optimization model examines and identifies optimum available options of the use of different energy sources and technologies for the production of electricity and/or heat by minimizing both the financial cost and the environmental impacts, with regard to a multiple objective optimization subject to a set of specific constraints. Implementation of the proposed model in the form of a case study for the island of Rhodes in Greece revealed that an optimized solution both cost and environmental-wise, would be an almost balanced participation of renewables and non-renewable energy sources in the energy mix

Cell lineage dynamics in stratified shoot apical meristems

We devise a stochastic and spatially explicit model for the dynamics of the initials cells in a stratified shoot apical meristem (SAM). The meristem is composed of three layers with seven initials per layer. We investigate the probability and number of divisions for a mutant lineage to either reach fixation or becoming purged through selection or drift. In contrast to previous studies our results show that the functional organization of the initials in stratified SAMs acts as an efficient purging mechanism particularly of deleterious mutations. All mutants are rapidly purged when deleterious. The probability of fixation for mutants with a higher fitness than the wild type increases linearly up to 70%. The median number of divisions to fixation of both genotypes is insensitive to the mutant's fitness. The median number of divisions to wildtype fixation is less than 100, with the upper quartile below 200. The largest number of divisions to wild-type fixation are in the order of 100 000 divisions. Our results indicate that the spatial organization of SAM enables the efficient purging of mutant lineages, particularly if they are deleterious. On the other hand, long-lived chimeric stages are common when mutant lineages succeed to overcome the initial numerical disadvantage. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved

Effects of two types of herbivores on the population dynamics of a perennial herb

The joint effects of multiple herbivores on their shared host plant have received increasing interest recently. The influence of herbivores on population dynamics of their host plants, especially the relative roles of different types of damage, is, however, still poorly understood. Here, we present a modelling approach, including both deterministic and stochastic matrix modelling, to be used in estimating fitness effects of multiple herbivores on perennial plants. We examined the effects and relative roles of two specialist herbivores, a pre-dispersal seed predator, Euphranta connexa, and a leaf-feeding moth, Abrostola asclepiadis, on the population dynamics and long-term fitness of their shared host plant, a long-lived perennial herb Vincetoxicum hirundinaria (Asclepiadaceae). We collected demographic data during 3 years and combined these data with the effects of natural levels of herbivory measured from the same individuals. We found that both seed predation and leaf herbivory reduced population growth of V. hirundinaria, but only very high damage levels changed the growth trend of the vigorously growing study populations from positive to negative. Demographic modelling indicated that seed predation had a greater impact on plant population growth than leaf herbivory. The effect of leaf herbivory was weaker and diminished with increasing level of seed predation. Evaluation of individual fitness components, however, suggested that leaf herbivory contributed more strongly to host plant fitness than seed predation. Our results emphasize that understanding the effects of a particular herbivore on plant population dynamics requires also knowledge on other herbivores present in the system, because the effect of a particular type of herbivory on plant population dynamics is likely to vary according to the intensity of other types of herbivory. Furthermore, evaluating herbivore impact from using individual fitness components does not necessarily reflect the long-term effects on total plant fitness. © 2005 Gesellschaft für Ökologie

Decomposing TIAM-MACRO to Assess Climatic Change Mitigation

TIAM-MACRO (TM) is a mathematical programming growth model where the global multi-region bottom-up engineering model TIAM is linked with a top-down macroeconomic module MACRO to maximize an inter-temporal utility function for a single representative producer-consumer agent in each region. The size of TM is such that non-linear (NL) optimal solutions cannot be obtained even when the best available personal computers and solvers are used. Therefore, an alternative is proposed based on decomposition methods converting TM to a small-size NL macroeconomic model, called TIAM-MACRO Stand-Alone (TMSA), and where the energy model TIAM is substituted by appropriate quadratic cost-supply functions (QSF). The TIAM model and the TMSA are calibrated to the demands estimated with a scenario generator and are then solved iteratively. This report concentrates on the description and foundation of the algorithm and explains why an adjusted production function is needed to allow for sectoral income and price elasticities that reproduce/calibrate the baseline scenario. It is shown that the decomposed problem for a single region is calibrated and solved to exactly the same results as the original problem in 3min of computer time instead of 2-3h without decomposition. Also, for the first time, we are able to solve the global TM model with 15 regions in 1.5h applying the approach based on TMSA (in Windows 7, 64-bit workstation, solution in a single thread)

Effects of two types of herbivores on the population dynamics of a perennial herb

The joint effects of multiple herbivores on their shared host plant have received increasing interest recently. The influence of herbivores on population dynamics of their host plants, especially the relative roles of different types of damage, is, however, still poorly understood. Here, we present a modelling approach, including both deterministic and stochastic matrix modelling, to be used in estimating fitness effects of multiple herbivores on perennial plants. We examined the effects and relative roles of two specialist herbivores, a pre-dispersal seed predator, Euphranta connexa, and a leaf-feeding moth, Abrostola asclepiadis, on the population dynamics and long-term fitness of their shared host plant, a long-lived perennial herb Vincetoxicum hirundinaria (Asclepiadaceae). We collected demographic data during 3 years and combined these data with the effects of natural levels of herbivory measured from the same individuals. We found that both seed predation and leaf herbivory reduced population growth of V. hirundinaria, but only very high damage levels changed the growth trend of the vigorously growing study populations from positive to negative. Demographic modelling indicated that seed predation had a greater impact on plant population growth than leaf herbivory. The effect of leaf herbivory was weaker and diminished with increasing level of seed predation. Evaluation of individual fitness components, however, suggested that leaf herbivory contributed more strongly to host plant fitness than seed predation. Our results emphasize that understanding the effects of a particular herbivore on plant population dynamics requires also knowledge on other herbivores present in the system, because the effect of a particular type of herbivory on plant population dynamics is likely to vary according to the intensity of other types of herbivory. Furthermore, evaluating herbivore impact from using individual fitness components does not necessarily reflect the long-term effects on total plant fitness. © 2005 Gesellschaft für Ökologie

Pre-dispersal seed predation in Primula veris: among-population variation in damage intensity and selection on flower number

The geographic mosaic theory of co-evolution states that evolution of interactions is driven by geographical variation in interactions between species. We investigated whether the intensity of pre-dispersal seed predation differed among nine Primula veris populations over 5 years, and whether such differences lead to geographical variation in selection on flower number. Seed predation intensity differed significantly among years and populations, and it increased with canopy closure and decreased with the density of the field layer vegetation. Individuals in open habitats also produced the highest number of flowers. Moreover, the phenotypic selection on flower number differed among years and populations. In populations of closed habitats, with high seed predation pressure, the increased number of flowers was often correlated with an increased number of damaged capsules. However, an increased flower number did not result in fewer intact fruits due to seed predation in any population