Analysis of the first IPTA Mock Data Challenge by the EPTA timing data analysis working group

This is a summary of the methods we used to analyse the first IPTA Mock Data Challenge (MDC), and the obtained results. We have used a Bayesian analysis in the time domain, accelerated using the recently developed ABC-method which consists of a form of lossy linear data compression. The TOAs were first processed with Tempo2, where the design matrix was extracted for use in a subsequent Bayesian analysis. We used different noise models to analyse the datasets: no red noise, red noise the same for all pulsars, and individual red noise per pulsar. We sampled from the likelihood with four different samplers: "emcee", "t-walk", "Metropolis-Hastings", and "pyMultiNest". All but emcee agreed on the final result, with emcee failing due to artefacts of the high-dimensionality of the problem. An interesting issue we ran into was that the prior of all the 36 (red) noise amplitudes strongly affects the results. A flat prior in the noise amplitude biases the inferred GWB amplitude, whereas a flat prior in log-amplitude seems to work well. This issue is only apparent when using a noise model with individually modelled red noise for all pulsars. Our results for the blind challenges are in good agreement with the injected values. For the GWB amplitudes we found h_c = 1.03 +/- 0.11 [10^{-14}], h_c = 5.70 +/- 0.35 [10^{-14}], and h_c = 6.91 +/- 1.72 [10^{-15}], and for the GWB spectral index we found gamma = 4.28 +/- 0.20, gamma = 4.35 +/- 0.09, and gamma = 3.75 +/- 0.40. We note that for closed challenge 3 there was quite some covariance between the signal and the red noise: if we constrain the GWB spectral index to the usual choice of gamma = 13/3, we obtain the estimates: h_c = 10.0 +/- 0.64 [10^{-15}], h_c = 56.3 +/- 2.42 [10^{-15}], and h_c = 4.83 +/- 0.50 [10^{-15}], with one-sided 2 sigma upper-limits of: h_c <= 10.98 [10^{-15}], h_c <= 60.29 [10^{-15}], and h_c <= 5.65 [10^{-15}].Comment: 10 pages, 5 figure

Stripping a debris disk by close stellar encounters in an open stellar cluster

A debris disk is a constituent of any planetary system surrounding a main sequence star. We study whether close stellar encounters can disrupt and strip a debris disk of its planetesimals in the expanding open cluster of its birth with a decreasing star number density over 100 Myrs. Such stripping would affect the dust production and hence detectability of the disk. We tabulated the fractions of planetesimals stripped off during stellar flybys of miss distances between 100 and 1000 AU and for several mass ratios of the central to passing stars. We then estimated the numbers of close stellar encounters over the lifetime of several expanding open clusters characterized by their initial star densities. We found that a standard disk, with inner and outer radii of 40 and 100 AU, suffers no loss of planetesimals over 100 Myrs around a star born in a common embedded cluster with star density <1000 pc^-3. In contrast, we found that such a disk is severely depleted of its planetesimals over this timescale around a star born in an Orion-type cluster where the star density is >20 000 pc^-3. In this environment, a disk loses >97% of its planetesimals around an M-dwarf, >63% around a solar-type star, and >42% around an A-dwarf, over 100 Myrs. We roughly estimate that two-thirds of the stars may be born in such high star density clusters. This might explain in part why fewer debris disks are observed around lower mass stars.Comment: 7 pages, 4 figures, accepted for publication in Astronomy and Astrophysics ; v2 abstract complemente

Soluble triggering receptor expressed on myeloid cells-1 is a marker of organ injuries in cardiogenic shock : results from the CardShock Study

Aims Optimal outcome after cardiogenic shock (CS) depends on a coordinated healing response in which both debris removal and extracellular matrix tissue repair play a crucial role. Excessive inflammation can perpetuate a vicious circle, positioning leucocytes as central protagonists and potential therapeutic targets. High levels of circulating Triggering Receptor Expressed on Myeloid cells-1 (TREM-1), were associated with death in acute myocardial infarction confirming excessive inflammation as determinant of bad outcome. The present study aims to describe the association of soluble TREM-1 with 90-day mortality and with various organ injuries in patients with CS. Methods and results This is a post-hoc study of CardShock, a prospective, multicenter study assessing the clinical presentation and management in patients with CS. At the time of this study, 87 patients had available plasma samples at either baseline, and/or 48 h and/or 96-120 h for soluble TREM-1 (sTREM-1) measurements. Plasma concentration of sTREM-1 was higher in 90-day non-survivors than survivors at baseline [median: 1392 IQR: (724-2128) vs. 621 (525-1233) pg/mL, p = 0.008), 48 h (p = 0.019) and 96-120 h (p = 0.029). The highest tertile of sTREM-1 at baseline (threshold: 1347 pg/mL) was associated with 90-day mortality with an unadjusted HR 3.08 CI 95% (1.48-6.42). sTREM-1 at baseline was not associated to hemodynamic parameters (heart rate, blood pressure, use of vasopressors or inotropes) but rather with organ injury markers: renal (estimated glomerular filtration rate, p = 0.0002), endothelial (bio-adrenomedullin, p = 0.018), myocardial (Suppression of Tumourigenicity 2, p = 0.002) or hepatic (bilirubin, p = 0.008). Conclusion In CS patients TREM-1 pathway is highly activated and gives an early prediction of vital organ injuries and outcome. [GRAPHICS] .Peer reviewe

Epinephrine Versus Norepinephrine for Cardiogenic Shock After Acute Myocardial Infarction

BACKGROUND Vasopressor agents could have certain specific effects in patients with cardiogenic shock (CS) after myocardial infarction, which may influence outcome. Although norepinephrine and epinephrine are currently the most commonly used agents, no randomized trial has compared their effects, and intervention data are lacking. OBJECTIVES The goal of this paper was to compare in a prospective, double-blind, multicenter, randomized study, the efficacy and safety of epinephrine and norepinephrine in patients with CS after acute myocardial infarction. METHODS The primary efficacy outcome was cardiac index evolution, and the primary safety outcome was the occurrence of refractory CS. Refractory CS was defined as CS with sustained hypotension, end-organ hypoperfusion and hyperlactatemia, and high inotrope and vasopressor doses. RESULTS Fifty-seven patients were randomized into 2 study arms, epinephrine and norepinephrine. For the primary efficacy endpoint, cardiac index evolution was similar between the 2 groups (p = 0.43) from baseline (H0) to H72. For the main safety endpoint, the observed higher incidence of refractory shock in the epinephrine group (10 of 27 [37%] vs. norepinephrine 2 of 30 [7%]; p = 0.008) led to early termination of the study. Heart rate increased significantly with epinephrine from H2 to H24 while remaining unchanged with norepinephrine (p <0.0001). Several metabolic changes were unfavorable to epinephrine compared with norepinephrine, including an increase in cardiac double product (p = 0.0002) and lactic acidosis from H2 to H24 (p <0.0001). CONCLUSIONS In patients with CS secondary to acute myocardial infarction, the use of epinephrine compared with norepinephrine was associated with similar effects on arterial pressure and cardiac index and a higher incidence of refractory shock. (Study Comparing the Efficacy and Tolerability of Epinephrine and Norepinephrine in Cardiogenic Shock [OptimaCC]; NCT01367743) (J AmColl Cardiol 2018; 72: 173-82) (C) 2018 by the American College of Cardiology Foundation.Peer reviewe

Epinephrine and short-term survival in cardiogenic shock : an individual data meta-analysis of 2583 patients

Correction Volume: 44 Issue: 11 Pages: 2022-2023 DOI: 10.1007/s00134-018-5372-9Catecholamines have been the mainstay of pharmacological treatment of cardiogenic shock (CS). Recently, use of epinephrine has been associated with detrimental outcomes. In the present study we aimed to evaluate the association between epinephrine use and short-term mortality in all-cause CS patients. We performed a meta-analysis of individual data with prespecified inclusion criteria: (1) patients in non-surgical CS treated with inotropes and/or vasopressors and (2) at least 15% of patients treated with epinephrine administrated alone or in association with other inotropes/vasopressors. The primary outcome was short-term mortality. Fourteen published cohorts and two unpublished data sets were included. We studied 2583 patients. Across all cohorts of patients, the incidence of epinephrine use was 37% (17-76%) and short-term mortality rate was 49% (21-69%). A positive correlation was found between percentages of epinephrine use and short-term mortality in the CS cohort. The risk of death was higher in epinephrine-treated CS patients (OR [CI] = 3.3 [2.8-3.9]) compared to patients treated with other drug regimens. Adjusted mortality risk remained striking in epinephrine-treated patients (n = 1227) (adjusted OR = 4.7 [3.4-6.4]). After propensity score matching, two sets of 338 matched patients were identified and epinephrine use remained associated with a strong detrimental impact on short-term mortality (OR = 4.2 [3.0-6.0]). In this very large cohort, epinephrine use for hemodynamic management of CS patients is associated with a threefold increase of risk of death.Peer reviewe

Méthode de détection de sources individuelles d'ondes gravitationnelles par chronométrie d'un réseau de pulsars : application aux données de l'EPTA

The existence of gravitational waves, ripples in space-time itself, has been predicted but their detection remains elusive. Multiple techniques exist for searching for them, including ground-based kilometer long inteferometers. In this thesis, we present an alternative approach, based on the monitoring and precise timing of radio pulses from an array of millisecond pulsars. A gravitational wave will perturb the propagation of those radio pulses, causing them to reach the Earth with a certain delay. By searching for correlations in the arrival times of the pulsations from different pulsars, we can in principle infer the presence of gravitational waves from observations. We begin by giving an overview of pulsar observations and timing. We illustrate those principles with a practical example : the study of the millisecond pulsar J1614-2230. In the second part we describe gravitational waves, the sources that create them, and the various detection methods. Then, we focus on the pulsar timing array technique, and its potential application to the search for gravitational waves from supermassive black hole binary system. We pursue with a detailed description of the statistical and numerical tools that we used in the present work, and present the results of a search ofr an injected signal in the real EPTA data set. Finally, we employ our new method to derive upper limits on the amplitude of a putative signal in the same EPTA data set, as a function of the frequency and sky location of the supermassive black hole binary system.L'existence des ondes gravitationnelles, fluctuations de l'espace-temps lui-même, a été prédite sans, pour l'instant, qu'une détection directe n'ait été encore possible. A l'heure actuelle, des méthodes consistant en des détecteurs interférométriques de plusieurs kilomètres de long sont à l'oeuvre pour permettre une première détection. Nous proposons, dans cette thèse, d'étudier une autre méthode : la chronométrie d'un réseau de pulsars milliseconde. Elle consiste en l'observation régulière et la datation précise des impulsions radio en provenance de pulsars ultrastables. L'onde gravitationnelle produisant retards ou avances des impulsions sur Terre, nous recherchons sa présence sous forme d'un signal corrélé entre les observations faites des différents pulsars du réseau. Dans un premier temps, nous détaillons les processus d'observation et de chronométrie des pulsars, pour nous pencher sur un cas particulier avec le pulsar J1614-2230. Puis, nous présentons les ondes gravitationnelles et leurs sources ainsi que les différentes méthodes de détection. Nous décrivons tout particulièrement la méthode de chronométrie d'un réseau de pulsars appliquée à la recherche d'un signal en provenance d'un système binaire de tous noirs supermassifs. Ensuite, après avoir détaillé les outils statistiques et numériques utilisés, nous appliquons notre méthode à l'injection d'un tel signal dans les observations réelles faites dans le cadre de l'EPTA. Enfin, nous présentons les limites supérieures sur l'amplitude d'un signal en provenance d'un système binaire obtenues sur ces données sans injection grâce à notre méthode en fonction de la fréquence et de la position de la source

A method for searching single gravitational wave sources with a pulsar timing array

L'existence des ondes gravitationnelles, fluctuations de l'espace-temps lui-même, a été prédite sans, pour l'instant, qu'une détection directe n'ait été encore possible. A l'heure actuelle, des méthodes consistant en des détecteurs interférométriques de plusieurs kilomètres de long sont à l'oeuvre pour permettre une première détection. Nous proposons, dans cette thèse, d'étudier une autre méthode : la chronométrie d'un réseau de pulsars milliseconde. Elle consiste en l'observation régulière et la datation précise des impulsions radio en provenance de pulsars ultrastables. L'onde gravitationnelle produisant retards ou avances des impulsions sur Terre, nous recherchons sa présence sous forme d'un signal corrélé entre les observations faites des différents pulsars du réseau. Dans un premier temps, nous détaillons les processus d'observation et de chronométrie des pulsars, pour nous pencher sur un cas particulier avec le pulsar J1614-2230. Puis, nous présentons les ondes gravitationnelles et leurs sources ainsi que les différentes méthodes de détection. Nous décrivons tout particulièrement la méthode de chronométrie d'un réseau de pulsars appliquée à la recherche d'un signal en provenance d'un système binaire de tous noirs supermassifs. Ensuite, après avoir détaillé les outils statistiques et numériques utilisés, nous appliquons notre méthode à l'injection d'un tel signal dans les observations réelles faites dans le cadre de l'EPTA. Enfin, nous présentons les limites supérieures sur l'amplitude d'un signal en provenance d'un système binaire obtenues sur ces données sans injection grâce à notre méthode en fonction de la fréquence et de la position de la source.The existence of gravitational waves, ripples in space-time itself, has been predicted but their detection remains elusive. Multiple techniques exist for searching for them, including ground-based kilometer long inteferometers. In this thesis, we present an alternative approach, based on the monitoring and precise timing of radio pulses from an array of millisecond pulsars. A gravitational wave will perturb the propagation of those radio pulses, causing them to reach the Earth with a certain delay. By searching for correlations in the arrival times of the pulsations from different pulsars, we can in principle infer the presence of gravitational waves from observations. We begin by giving an overview of pulsar observations and timing. We illustrate those principles with a practical example : the study of the millisecond pulsar J1614-2230. In the second part we describe gravitational waves, the sources that create them, and the various detection methods. Then, we focus on the pulsar timing array technique, and its potential application to the search for gravitational waves from supermassive black hole binary system. We pursue with a detailed description of the statistical and numerical tools that we used in the present work, and present the results of a search ofr an injected signal in the real EPTA data set. Finally, we employ our new method to derive upper limits on the amplitude of a putative signal in the same EPTA data set, as a function of the frequency and sky location of the supermassive black hole binary system

Facsimile of the sketch-book of Wilars de Honecort : an architect of the thirteenth century

with commentaries and descriptions by J.B.A. Lassus and by J. Quicherat, translated and edited, with many additional articles and notes, by the Robert Willi

[Pilier du portail de l'église Saint-Pierre-aux-Boeufs] : [dessin] / [Jean-Baptiste-Antoine Lassus]

Référence bibliographique : Destailleur Paris, t. 3, 512Appartient à l’ensemble documentaire : DesDestai