57 research outputs found
Uncertainty in Signals of Large-Scale Climate Variations in Radiosonde and Satellite Upper-Air Temperature Datasets
There is no single reference dataset of long-term global upper-air temperature observations, although several
groups have developed datasets from radiosonde and satellite observations for climate-monitoring purposes. The
existence of multiple data products allows for exploration of the uncertainty in signals of climate variations and
change. This paper examines eight upper-air temperature datasets and quantifies the magnitude and uncertainty
of various climate signals, including stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and tropospheric ENSO
signals, stratospheric warming following three major volcanic eruptions, the abrupt tropospheric warming of
1976–77, and multidecadal temperature trends. Uncertainty estimates are based both on the spread of signal
estimates from the different observational datasets and on the inherent statistical uncertainties of the signal in
any individual dataset.
The large spread among trend estimates suggests that using multiple datasets to characterize large-scale upperair
temperature trends gives a more complete characterization of their uncertainty than reliance on a single
dataset. For other climate signals, there is value in using more than one dataset, because signal strengths vary.
However, the purely statistical uncertainty of the signal in individual datasets is large enough to effectively
encompass the spread among datasets. This result supports the notion of an 11th climate-monitoring principle,
augmenting the 10 principles that have now been generally accepted (although not generally implemented) by
the climate community. This 11th principle calls for monitoring key climate variables with multiple, independent
observing systems for measuring the variable, and multiple, independent groups analyzing the data
Wind speed variability over the Canary Islands, 1948-2014: focusing on trend differences at the land-ocean interface and below-above the trade-wind inversion layer
This study simultaneously examines wind speed trends at the land?ocean interface, and below?above the trade-wind inversion layer in the Canary Islands and the surrounding Eastern North Atlantic Ocean: a key region for quantifying the variability of trade-winds and its response to large-scale atmospheric circulation changes. Two homogenized data sources are used: (1) observed wind speed from nine land-based stations (1981?2014), including one mountain weather station (Izaña) located above the trade-wind inversion layer; and (2) simulated wind speed from two atmospheric hindcasts over ocean (i.e., SeaWind I at 30 km for 1948?2014; and SeaWind II at 15 km for 1989?2014). The results revealed a widespread significant negative trend of trade-winds over ocean for 1948?2014, whereas no significant trends were detected for 1989?2014. For this recent period wind speed over land and ocean displayed the same multi-decadal variability and a distinct seasonal trend pattern with a strengthening (late spring and summer; significant in May and August) and weakening (winter?spring?autumn; significant in April and September) of trade-winds. Above the inversion layer at Izaña, we found a predominance of significant positive trends, indicating a decoupled variability and opposite wind speed trends when compared to those reported in boundary layer. The analysis of the Trade Wind Index (TWI), the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) and the Eastern Atlantic Index (EAI) demonstrated significant correlations with the wind speed variability, revealing that the correlation patterns of the three indices showed a spatio-temporal complementarity in shaping wind speed trends across the Eastern North Atlantic.C. A. -M. has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement No. 703733 (STILLING project). This research was also supported by the Research Projects: Swedish BECC, MERGE, VR (2014–5320), PCIN-2015-220, CGL2014-52135-C03-01 and Red de variabilidad y cambio climático RECLIM (CGL2014-517221-REDT). M.M is indebted to the Spanish Government for funding through the “Ramón y Cajal” program and supported by Grant PORTIO (BIA2015-70644-R
A quantification of uncertainties in historical tropical tropospheric temperature trends from radiosondes
The consistency of tropical tropospheric temperature trends with climate model
expectations remains contentious. A key limitation is that the uncertainties in observations
from radiosondes are both substantial and poorly constrained. We present a thorough
uncertainty analysis of radiosonde‐based temperature records. This uses an automated
homogenization procedure and a previously developed set of complex error models where
the answer is known a priori. We perform a number of homogenization experiments in
which error models are used to provide uncertainty estimates of real‐world trends. These
estimates are relatively insensitive to a variety of processing choices. Over 1979–2003, the
satellite‐equivalent tropical lower tropospheric temperature trend has likely (5–95%
confidence range) been between −0.01 K/decade and 0.19 K/decade (0.05–0.23 K/decade
over 1958–2003) with a best estimate of 0.08 K/decade (0.14 K/decade). This range
includes both available satellite data sets and estimates from models (based upon scaling
their tropical amplification behavior by observed surface trends). On an individual
pressure level basis, agreement between models, theory, and observations within the
troposphere is uncertain over 1979 to 2003 and nonexistent above 300 hPa. Analysis of
1958–2003, however, shows consistent model‐data agreement in tropical lapse rate
trends at all levels up to the tropical tropopause, so the disagreement in the more recent
period is not necessarily evidence of a general problem in simulating long‐term global
warming. Other possible reasons for the discrepancy since 1979 are: observational errors
beyond those accounted for here, end‐point effects, inadequate decadal variability in model
lapse rates, or neglected climate forcings
Observed temperature changes in the troposphere and stratosphere from 1979 to 2018
Temperature observations of the upper-air atmosphere are now available for more than 40 years from both ground- and satellite-based observing systems. Recent years have seen substantial improvements in reducing long-standing discrepancies among datasets through major reprocessing efforts. The advent of radio occultation (RO) observations in 2001 has led to further improvements in vertically resolved temperature measurements, enabling a detailed analysis of upper-troposphere/lower-stratosphere trends. This paper presents the current state of atmospheric temperature trends from the latest available observational records. We analyze observations from merged operational satellite measurements, radiosondes, lidars, and RO, spanning a vertical range from the lower troposphere to the upper stratosphere. The focus is on assessing climate trends and on identifying the degree of consistency among the observational systems. The results show a robust cooling of the stratosphere of about 1–3 K, and a robust warming of the troposphere of about 0.6–0.8 K over the last four decades (1979– 2018). Consistent results are found between the satellite-based layer-average temperatures and vertically resolved radiosonde records. The overall latitude–altitude trend patterns are consistent between RO and radiosonde records. Significant warming of the troposphere is evident in the RO measurements available after 2001, with trends of 0.25–0.35 K per decade. Amplified warming in the tropical upper-troposphere compared to surface trends for 2002–18 is found based on RO and radiosonde records, in approximate agreement with moist adiabatic lapse rate theory. The consistency of trend results from the latest upper-air datasets will help to improve understanding of climate changes and their drivers
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