Exploring the climate of Proxima B with the Met Office Unified Model

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from EDP Sciences via the DOI in this record.The corrigendum to this article is in ORE at: http://hdl.handle.net/10871/34331We present results of simulations of the climate of the newly discovered planet Proxima Centauri B, performed using the Met Office Unified Model (UM). We examine the responses of both an ‘Earth-like’ atmosphere and simplified nitrogen and trace carbon dioxide atmosphere to the radiation likely received by Proxima Centauri B. Additionally, we explore the effects of orbital eccentricity on the planetary conditions using a range of eccentricities guided by the observational constraints. Overall, our results are in agreement with previous studies in suggesting Proxima Centauri B may well have surface temperatures conducive to the presence of liquid water. Moreover, we have expanded the parameter regime over which the planet may support liquid water to higher values of eccentricity (& 0.1) and lower incident fluxes (881.7 W m−2 ) than previous work. This increased parameter space arises because of the low sensitivity of the planet to changes in stellar flux, a consequence of the stellar spectrum and orbital configuration. However, we also find interesting differences from previous simulations, such as cooler mean surface temperatures for the tidally-locked case. Finally, we have produced high resolution planetary emission and reflectance spectra, and highlight signatures of gases vital to the evolution of complex life on Earth (oxygen, ozone and carbon dioxide).I.B., J.M. and P.E. acknowledge the support of a Met Office Academic Partnership secondment. B.D. thanks the University of Exeter for support through a Ph.D. studentship. N.J.M. and J.G.’s contributions were in part funded by a Leverhulme Trust Research Project Grant, and in part by a University of Exeter College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences studentship. We acknowledge use of the MONSooN system, a collaborative facility supplied under the Joint Weather and Climate Research Programme, a strategic partnership between the Met Office and the Natural Environment Research Council. This work also used the University of Exeter Supercomputer, a DiRAC Facility jointly funded by STFC, the Large Facilities Capital Fund of BIS and the University of Exeter

Revisiting soliton contributions to perturbative amplitudes

Open Access funded by SCOAP3. CP is a Royal Society Research Fellow and partly supported by the U.S. Department of Energy under grants DOE-SC0010008, DOE-ARRA-SC0003883 and DOE-DE-SC0007897. ABR is supported by the Mitchell Family Foundation. We would like to thank the Mitchell Institute at Texas A&M and the NHETC at Rutgers University respectively for hospitality during the course of this work. We would also like to acknowledge the Aspen Center for Physics and NSF grant 1066293 for a stimulating research environment

Episodic Source Memory over Distribution by Quantum-Like Dynamics – A Model Exploration

In source memory studies, a decision-maker is concerned with identifying the context in which a given episodic experience occurred. A common paradigm for studying source memory is the ‘three-list’ experimental paradigm, where a subject studies three lists of words and is later asked whether a given word appeared on one or more of the studied lists. Surprisingly, the sum total of the acceptance probabilities generated by asking for the source of a word separately for each list (‘list 1?’, ‘list 2?’, ‘list 3?’) exceeds the acceptance probability generated by asking whether that word occurred on the union of the lists (‘list 1 or 2 or 3?’). The episodic memory for a given word therefore appears over distributed on the disjoint contexts of the lists. A quantum episodic memory model [QEM] was proposed by Brainerd, Wang and Reyna [8] to explain this type of result. In this paper, we apply a Hamiltonian dynamical extension of QEM for over distribution of source memory. The Hamiltonian operators are simultaneously driven by parameters for re-allocation of gist-based and verbatim-based acceptance support as subjects are exposed to the cue word in the first temporal stage, and are attenuated for description-dependence by the querying probe in the second temporal stage. Overall, the model predicts well the choice proportions in both separate list and union list queries and the over distribution effect, suggesting that a Hamiltonian dynamics for QEM can provide a good account of the acceptance processes involved in episodic memory tasks

Outcome Measures for Disease-Modifying Trials in Parkinson's Disease: Consensus Paper by the EJS ACT-PD Multi-Arm Multi-Stage Trial Initiative

BACKGROUND: Multi-arm, multi-stage (MAMS) platform trials can accelerate the identification of disease-modifying treatments for Parkinson's disease (PD) but there is no current consensus on the optimal outcome measures (OM) for this approach. OBJECTIVE: To provide an up-to-date inventory of OM for disease-modifying PD trials, and a framework for future selection of OM for such trials. METHODS: As part of the Edmond J Safra Accelerating Clinical Trials in Parkinson Disease (EJS ACT-PD) initiative, an expert group with Patient and Public Involvement and Engagement (PPIE) representatives' input reviewed and evaluated available evidence on OM for potential use in trials to delay progression of PD. Each OM was ranked based on aspects such as validity, sensitivity to change, participant burden and practicality for a multi-site trial. Review of evidence and expert opinion led to the present inventory. RESULTS: An extensive inventory of OM was created, divided into: general, motor and non-motor scales, diaries and fluctuation questionnaires, cognitive, disability and health-related quality of life, capability, quantitative motor, wearable and digital, combined, resource use, imaging and wet biomarkers, and milestone-based. A framework for evaluation of OM is presented to update the inventory in the future. PPIE input highlighted the need for OM which reflect their experience of disease progression and are applicable to diverse populations and disease stages. CONCLUSION: We present a range of OM, classified according to a transparent framework, to aid selection of OM for disease-modifying PD trials, whilst allowing for inclusion or re-classification of relevant OM as new evidence emerges

Basement membrane and vascular remodelling in smokers and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a cross-sectional study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Little is known about airway remodelling in bronchial biopsies (BB) in smokers and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). We conducted an initial pilot study comparing BB from COPD patients with nonsmoking controls. This pilot study suggested the presence of reticular basement membrane (Rbm) fragmentation and altered vessel distribution in COPD.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>To determine whether Rbm fragmentation and altered vessel distribution in BB were specific for COPD we designed a cross-sectional study and stained BB from 19 current smokers and 14 ex-smokers with mild to moderate COPD and compared these to 15 current smokers with normal lung function and 17 healthy and nonsmoking subjects.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Thickness of the Rbm was not significantly different between groups; although in COPD this parameter was quite variable. The Rbm showed fragmentation and splitting in both current smoking groups and ex-smoker COPD compared with healthy nonsmokers (p < 0.02); smoking and COPD seemed to have additive effects. Rbm fragmentation correlated with smoking history in COPD but not with age. There were more vessels in the Rbm and fewer vessels in the lamina propria in current smokers compared to healthy nonsmokers (p < 0.05). The number of vessels staining for vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) in the Rbm was higher in both current smoker groups and ex-smoker COPD compared to healthy nonsmokers (p < 0.004). In current smoker COPD VEGF vessel staining correlated with FEV1% predicted (r = 0.61, p < 0.02).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Airway remodelling in smokers and mild to moderate COPD is associated with fragmentation of the Rbm and altered distribution of vessels in the airway wall. Rbm fragmentation was also present to as great an extent in ex-smokers with COPD. These characteristics may have potential physiological consequences.</p

El Niño, tropical Atlantic warmth, and Atlantic hurricanes over the past 1500 years

Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2009. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Nature Publishing Group for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Nature 460 (2009): 880-883, doi:10.1038/nature08219.Atlantic Tropical Cyclone (TC) activity, as measured by annual storm counts, reached anomalous levels over the past decade. The short nature of the historical record and potential issues with its reliability in earlier decades, however, has prompted an ongoing debate regarding the reality and significance of the recent rise. Here, we place recent activity in a longer-term context, by comparing two independent estimates of TC activity over the past 1500 years. The first estimate is based on a composite of regional sedimentary evidence of landfalling hurricanes, while the second estimate employs a previously published statistical model of Atlantic TC activity driven by proxy-reconstructions of past climate changes. Both approaches yield consistent evidence of a peak in Atlantic TC activity during Medieval times (around AD 1000) followed by a subsequent lull in activity. The Medieval peak, which rivals or even exceeds (within uncertainties) recent levels of activity, results in the statistical model from a ‘perfect storm’ of La Niña-like climate conditions and relative tropical Atlantic warmth.M.E.M. and Z.Z. acknowledge support from the ATM programme of the National Science Foundation (grant ATM-0542356). J.P.D. acknowledges support from the EAR and OCE programmes of the National Science Foundation (grants EAR-0519118 and OCE-0402746), the Risk Prediction Initiative at the Bermuda Institute for Ocean Sciences, and the Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research

Gender differences in first episode psychotic mania

Background : The aim of this paper was to delineate the impact of gender on premorbid history, onset, and 18 month outcomes of first episode psychotic mania (FEPM) patients. Methods : Medical file audit assessment of 118 (male = 71; female = 47) patients with FEPM aged 15 to 29 years was undertaken on clinical and functional measures. Results : Males with FEPM had increased likelihood of substance use (OR = 13.41, p &lt; .001) and forensic issues (OR = 4.71, p = .008), whereas females were more likely to have history of sexual abuse trauma (OR = 7.12, p = .001). At service entry, males were more likely to be using substances, especially cannabis (OR = 2.15, p = .047), had more severe illness (OR = 1.72, p = .037), and poorer functioning (OR = 0.96, p = .045). During treatment males were more likely to decrease substance use (OR = 5.34, p = .008) and were more likely to be living with family (OR = 4.30, p = .009). There were no gender differences in age of onset, psychopathology or functioning at discharge. Conclusions : Clinically meaningful gender differences in FEPM were driven by risk factors possibly associated with poor outcome. For males, substance use might be associated with poorer clinical presentation and functioning. In females with FEPM, the impact of sexual trauma on illness course warrants further consideration

Genome-wide haplotype association study identifies the FRMD4A gene as a risk locus for Alzheimer's disease.

International audienceRecently, several genome wide association studies (GWAS) have led to the discovery of 9 new loci of genetic susceptibility in Alzheimer's disease (AD). However, the landscape of the AD genetic susceptibility is far away to be complete and in addition to single-SNP analyses as performed in conventional GWAS, complementary strategies need to be applied to overcome limitations inherent to this type of approaches.. We performed a genome wide haplotype association (GWHA) study in the EADI1 study (n=2,025 AD cases and 5,328 controls) by applying a sliding-windows approach. After exclusion of loci already known to be involved in AD (APOE, BIN1 and CR1), 91 regions with suggestive haplotype effects were identified. In a second step, we attempted to replicate the best suggestive haplotype associations in the GERAD1 consortium (2,820 AD cases and 6,356 controls) and observed that 9 of them showed nominal association. In a third step, we tested relevant haplotype associations in a combined analysis of five additional case-control studies (5,093 AD cases and 4,061 controls). We consistently replicated the association of a haplotype within FRMD4A on Chr.10p13 in all the data set analysed (OR=1.68, 95% CI 1.43- 1.96; p=1.1x10-10). We finally searched for association between SNPs within the FRMD4A locus and Ab plasma concentrations in three independent non demented populations (n=2,579). We reported that polymorphisms were associated with plasma Ab42/Ab40 ratio (best signal, p=5.4x10-7). In conclusion, combining both GWHA study and a conservative three-stage replication approach, we characterised FRMD4A as a new genetic risk factor of AD

Measuring and modelling the response of Klebsiella pneumoniae KPC prey to Bdellovibrio bacteriovorus predation, in human serum and defined buffer

In worldwide conditions of increasingly antibiotic-resistant hospital infections, it is important to research alternative therapies. Bdellovibrio bacteriovorus bacteria naturally prey on Gram-negative pathogens, including antibiotic-resistant strains and so B. bacteriovorus have been proposed as "living antibiotics" to combat antimicrobially-resistant pathogens. Predator-prey interactions are complex and can be altered by environmental components. To be effective B. bacteriovorus predation needs to work in human body fluids such as serum where predation dynamics may differ to that studied in laboratory media. Here we combine mathematical modelling and lab experimentation to investigate the predation of an important carbapenem-resistant human pathogen, Klebsiella pneumoniae, by B. bacteriovorus in human serum versus buffer. We show experimentally that B. bacteriovorus is able to reduce prey numbers in each environment, on different timescales. Our mathematical model captures the underlying dynamics of the experimentation, including an initial predation-delay at the predator-prey-serum interface. Our research shows differences between predation in buffer and serum and highlights both the potential and limitations of B. bacteriovorus acting therapeutically against K. pneumoniae in serum, informing future research into the medicinal behaviours and dosing of this living antibacterial

Informing Marine Protected Area Designation and Management for Nesting Olive Ridley Sea Turtles Using Satellite Tracking

This is the final version. Available from Frontiers Media via the DOI in this record. Understanding the horizontal and vertical habitat of olive ridley sea turtles (Lepidochelys olivacea), a threatened species, is critical for determining regions for protection and relevant gear modifications that may effectively reduce bycatch, the largest threat to this species. Satellite transmitters were used to determine the movement and dive behavior of 21 female olive ridley turtles tagged in Pongara National Park, Gabon during the 2012, 2013, and 2015 nesting seasons. A switching state-space model was used to filter the tracking data and categorize the internesting and post-nesting movements. Gridded utilization distribution (UD) home range analysis of tracking data revealed that the entire core habitat occurred in the Komo Estuary during the internesting period. Within the Komo Estuary, 58% of this core UD occurred in shipping lanes. Dive data from the 2015 tagging season revealed that during the internesting period, turtles spent the majority of their time resting on the estuary seabed. Approximately 20% of all dive time was spent on the bottom and all maximum dive depths corresponded to the depth of the seabed, indicating that bottom set gear during the internesting period may pose the greatest potential for fisheries interactions. National parks currently protect many of the nesting sites and the Gabon Bleu initiative has formally designated 10 new marine parks and a network of community and industrial fishing zones; this data was a layer used in determining the park and zone boundaries. Shared use of the estuary by fisheries, shipping, and olive ridley turtles creates a need for management measures to reduce interactions. Thus, the results from this study can further provide detailed information that can be used to support the development of evidence-based management plans