Communication Management and Trust: Their Role in Building Resilience to “Surprises” Such as Natural Disasters, Pandemic Flu, and Terrorism

In times of public danger such as natural disasters and health emergencies, a country’s communication systems will be some of its most important assets because access to information will make individuals and groups more resilient. Communication by those charged with dealing with the situation is often critical. We analyzed reports from a wide variety of crisis incidents and found a direct correlation between trust and an organization’s preparedness and internal coordination of crisis communication and the effectiveness of its leadership. Thus, trust is one of the most important variables in effective communication management in times of “surprise.

A Hedged Monte Carlo Approach to Real Option Pricing

In this work we are concerned with valuing optionalities associated to invest or to delay investment in a project when the available information provided to the manager comes from simulated data of cash flows under historical (or subjective) measure in a possibly incomplete market. Our approach is suitable also to incorporating subjective views from management or market experts and to stochastic investment costs. It is based on the Hedged Monte Carlo strategy proposed by Potters et al (2001) where options are priced simultaneously with the determination of the corresponding hedging. The approach is particularly well-suited to the evaluation of commodity related projects whereby the availability of pricing formulae is very rare, the scenario simulations are usually available only in the historical measure, and the cash flows can be highly nonlinear functions of the prices.Comment: 25 pages, 14 figure

Precision luminosity measurements at LHCb

Measuring cross-sections at the LHC requires the luminosity to be determined accurately at each centre-of-mass energy √s. In this paper results are reported from the luminosity calibrations carried out at the LHC interaction point 8 with the LHCb detector for √s = 2.76, 7 and 8 TeV (proton-proton collisions) and for √sNN = 5 TeV (proton-lead collisions). Both the "van der Meer scan" and "beam-gas imaging" luminosity calibration methods were employed. It is observed that the beam density profile cannot always be described by a function that is factorizable in the two transverse coordinates. The introduction of a two-dimensional description of the beams improves significantly the consistency of the results. For proton-proton interactions at √s = 8 TeV a relative precision of the luminosity calibration of 1.47% is obtained using van der Meer scans and 1.43% using beam-gas imaging, resulting in a combined precision of 1.12%. Applying the calibration to the full data set determines the luminosity with a precision of 1.16%. This represents the most precise luminosity measurement achieved so far at a bunched-beam hadron collider

Measurement of the CKM angle γ from a combination of B±→Dh± analyses

A combination of three LHCb measurements of the CKM angle γ is presented. The decays B±→D K± and B±→Dπ± are used, where D denotes an admixture of D0 and D0 mesons, decaying into K+K−, π+π−, K±π∓, K±π∓π±π∓, K0Sπ+π−, or K0S K+K− final states. All measurements use a dataset corresponding to 1.0 fb−1 of integrated luminosity. Combining results from B±→D K± decays alone a best-fit value of γ =72.0◦ is found, and confidence intervals are set γ ∈ [56.4,86.7]◦ at 68% CL, γ ∈ [42.6,99.6]◦ at 95% CL. The best-fit value of γ found from a combination of results from B±→Dπ± decays alone, is γ =18.9◦, and the confidence intervals γ ∈ [7.4,99.2]◦ ∪ [167.9,176.4]◦ at 68% CL are set, without constraint at 95% CL. The combination of results from B± → D K± and B± → Dπ± decays gives a best-fit value of γ =72.6◦ and the confidence intervals γ ∈ [55.4,82.3]◦ at 68% CL, γ ∈ [40.2,92.7]◦ at 95% CL are set. All values are expressed modulo 180◦, and are obtained taking into account the effect of D0–D0 mixing

Differential branching fraction and angular analysis of the decay B0→K∗0μ+μ−

The angular distribution and differential branching fraction of the decay B 0→ K ∗0 μ + μ − are studied using a data sample, collected by the LHCb experiment in pp collisions at s√=7 TeV, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 1.0 fb−1. Several angular observables are measured in bins of the dimuon invariant mass squared, q 2. A first measurement of the zero-crossing point of the forward-backward asymmetry of the dimuon system is also presented. The zero-crossing point is measured to be q20=4.9±0.9GeV2/c4 , where the uncertainty is the sum of statistical and systematic uncertainties. The results are consistent with the Standard Model predictions

Study of B0(s)→K0Sh+h′− decays with first observation of B0s→K0SK±π∓ and B0s→K0Sπ+π−

A search for charmless three-body decays of B 0 and B0s mesons with a K0S meson in the final state is performed using the pp collision data, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 1.0 fb−1, collected at a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV recorded by the LHCb experiment. Branching fractions of the B0(s)→K0Sh+h′− decay modes (h (′) = π, K), relative to the well measured B0→K0Sπ+π− decay, are obtained. First observation of the decay modes B0s→K0SK±π∓ and B0s→K0Sπ+π− and confirmation of the decay B0→K0SK±π∓ are reported. The following relative branching fraction measurements or limits are obtained B(B0→K0SK±π∓)B(B0→K0Sπ+π−)=0.128±0.017(stat.)±0.009(syst.), B(B0→K0SK+K−)B(B0→K0Sπ+π−)=0.385±0.031(stat.)±0.023(syst.), B(B0s→K0Sπ+π−)B(B0→K0Sπ+π−)=0.29±0.06(stat.)±0.03(syst.)±0.02(fs/fd), B(B0s→K0SK±π∓)B(B0→K0Sπ+π−)=1.48±0.12(stat.)±0.08(syst.)±0.12(fs/fd)B(B0s→K0SK+K−)B(B0→K0Sπ+π−)∈[0.004;0.068]at90%CL

Searches for B0(s)→J/ψppˉ and B+→J/ψppˉπ+ decays

The results of searches for B0(s)→J/ψ pp¯ and B + → J/ψ p p¯ π+ decays are reported. The analysis is based on a data sample, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 1.0 fb−1 of pp collisions, collected with the LHCb detector. An excess with 2.8 σ significance is seen for the decay B0s→J/ψ pp¯ and an upper limit on the branching fraction is set at the 90 % confidence level: B(B0s→J/ψ pp¯) < 4.8 × 10−6, which is the first such limit. No significant signals are seen for B0 → J/ψ pp¯ and B+ → J/ψ pp¯ π + decays, for which the corresponding limits are set: B(B0→J/ψ pp¯) < 5.2 × 10−7, which significantly improves the existing limit; and B(B+→J/ψ pp¯π+) < 5.0 × 10−7, which is the first limit on this branching fraction

Study of DJ meson decays to D+π−, D0π+ and D∗+π− final states in pp collisions

A study of D+π−, D0π+ and D∗+π− final states is performed using pp collision data, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 1.0 fb−1, collected at a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV with the LHCb detector. The D1(2420)0 resonance is observed in the D∗+π− final state and the D∗2(2460) resonance is observed in the D+π−, D0π+ and D∗+π− final states. For both resonances, their properties and spin-parity assignments are obtained. In addition, two natural parity and two unnatural parity resonances are observed in the mass region between 2500 and 2800 MeV. Further structures in the region around 3000 MeV are observed in all the D∗+π−, D+π− and D0π+ final states