The dynamics of a low-order coupled ocean-atmosphere model

A system of five ordinary differential equations is studied which combines the Lorenz-84 model for the atmosphere and a box model for the ocean. The behaviour of this system is studied as a function of the coupling parameters. For most parameter values, the dynamics of the atmosphere model is dominant. For a range of parameter values, competing attractors exist. The Kaplan-Yorke dimension and the correlation dimension of the chaotic attractor are numerically calculated and compared to the values found in the uncoupled Lorenz model. In the transition from periodic behaviour to chaos intermittency is observed. The intermittent behaviour occurs near a Neimark-Sacker bifurcation at which a periodic solution loses its stability. The length of the periodic intervals is governed by the time scale of the ocean component. Thus, in this regime the ocean model has a considerable influence on the dynamics of the coupled system.Comment: 20 pages, 15 figures, uses AmsTex, Amssymb and epsfig package. Submitted to the Journal of Nonlinear Scienc

Age-Related Toxoplasma gondii Seroprevalence in Dutch Wild Boar Inconsistent with Lifelong Persistence of Antibodies

Toxoplasma gondii is an important zoonotic pathogen that is best known as a cause of abortion or abnormalities in the newborn after primary infection during pregnancy. Our aim was to determine the prevalence of T. gondii in wild boar to investigate the possible role of their meat in human infection and to get an indication of the environmental contamination with T. gondii. The presence of anti-T. gondii antibodies was determined by in-house ELISA in 509 wild boar shot in 2002/2003 and 464 wild boar shot in 2007. Most of the boar originated from the “Roerstreek” (n = 673) or the “Veluwe” (n = 241). A binormal mixture model was fitted to the log-transformed optical density values for wild boar up to 20 months old to estimate the optimal cut-off value (−0.685) and accompanying sensitivity (90.6%) and specificity (93.6%). The overall seroprevalence was estimated at 24.4% (95% CI: 21.1–27.7%). The prevalence did not show variation between sampling years or regions, indicating a stable and homogeneous infection pressure from the environment. The relation between age and seroprevalence was studied in two stages. Firstly, seroprevalence by age group was determined by fitting the binary mixture model to 200 animals per age category. The prevalence showed a steep increase until approximately 10 months of age but stabilized at approximately 35% thereafter. Secondly, we fitted the age-dependent seroprevalence data to several SIR-type models, with seropositives as infected (I) and seronegatives as either susceptible (S) or resistant (R). A model with a recovery rate (SIS) was superior to a model without a recovery rate (SI). This finding is not consistent with the traditional view of lifelong persistence of T. gondii infections. The high seroprevalence suggests that eating undercooked wild boar meat may pose a risk of infection with T. gondii

Influence of Efforts of Employer and Employee on Return-to-Work Process and Outcomes

Background Research on disability and RTW outcome has led to significant advances in understanding these outcomes, however, limited studies focus on measuring the RTW process. After a prolonged period of sickness absence, the assessment of the RTW process by investigating RTW Effort Sufficiency (RTW-ES) is essential. However, little is known about factors influencing RTW-ES. Also, the correspondence in factors determining RTW-ES and RTW is unknown. The purpose of this study was to investigate 1) the strength and relevance of factors related to RTW-ES and RTW (no/partial RTW), and 2) the comparability of factors associated with RTW-ES and with RTW. Methods During 4 months, all assessments of RTW-ES and RTW (no/partial RTW) among employees applying for disability benefits after 2 years of sickness absence, performed by labor experts at 3 Dutch Social Insurance Institute locations, were investigated by means of a questionnaire. Results Questionnaires concerning 415 cases were available. Using multiple logistic regression analysis, the only factor related to RTW-ES is a good employer-employee relationship. Factors related to RTW (no/partial RTW) were found to be high education, no previous periods of complete disability and a good employer-employee relationship. Conclusions Different factors are relevant to RTW-ES and RTW, but the employer-employee relationship is relevant for both. Considering the importance of the assessment of RTW-ES after a prolonged period of sickness absence among employees who are not fully disabled, this knowledge is essential for the assessment of RTW-ES and the RTW process itself

Factors associated with Toxoplasma gondii infection in confined farrow-to-finish pig herds in western France: an exploratory study in 60 herds

Background: Infection by Toxoplasma gondii postnatally can occur after ingestion of contaminated meat or water (tissue cysts/oocysts). In Europe, percentage of meat borne infections is estimated between 30 and 63 %, out of which pork makes the most important source. The aim of this study was to (i) investigate the seroprevalence of T. gondii in intensive pig farms from western France; and (ii) identify the risk factors associated with seropositivity. Methods: Data were collected between November 2006 and February 2008 in 60 intensive farrow-to-finish farms, where sera were taken from 3595 fattening pigs, weaned and suckling piglets. Information about three classes of potential seropositivity risk factors were obtained through a questionnaire concerning: (i) breeding characteristics; (ii) farm management; and (iii) husbandry and hygiene. The modified agglutination test (MAT) was used for detection of specific anti T. gondii antibodies in pig sera, starting from 1/6 dilution. Results: The overall proportion of seropositive animals was 6.9 %, but the proportion of herds with at least one positive pig was 100 %. Multivariate logistic mixed model showed an increased seropositivity risk in weaned compared to suckling piglets, and a decreasing risk for mid-sized and large farms. The presence of a Danish entry facility, that clearly separates clean and dirty areas, had a protective effect on T. gondii seropositivity as well. Conclusions: The observed proportion of herds with at least one T. gondii seropositive animal provides further evidence that even in confined conditions of pig breeding, infection occurs, and is common. The highest risk for acquiring T. gondii is at the end of weaning period. Smaller confined pig farms demonstrate higher T. gondii seropositivity levels. This study also showed that Danish entry on farm buildings provides effective protection against T. gondii

Climate feedbacks induced by the North Atlantic freshwater forcing in a coupled model of intermediate complexity

Based on coupled model simulations (ECBilt-Clio), we investigate the atmospheric and oceanic response to sustained freshwater input into the North Atlantic under the glacial maximum background state. The results demonstrate that a weakening of the thermohaline circulation triggered by weaker density flux leads to rapid changes in global sea-ice volume and reduced poleward heat transport in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). In the Southern Hemisphere (SH), however, the oceanic heat transport increases substantially. This in turn leads to strong cooling over the North Atlantic whereas the SH extratropical region warms up. The suppression of the NADW also drastically changes the atmospheric circulation. The associated northward wind anomalies over the North Atlantic increase the warm air advection from the tropics and induce the transport of tropical saltier water to mid-latitudes. This negative atmospheric-oceanic feedback should play an important role to resume the NADW, after the freshwater forcing ends up.Baseado em simulações numéricas realizadas com um modelo acoplado (ECBilt-Clio), investigam-se as anomalias atmosféricas e oceânicas associadas ao aumento de água doce no Atlântico Norte sob condições glaciais. Os resultados demonstram que um enfraquecimento da corrente termohalina provoca rápidas mudanças no volume global de gelo marinho, bem como uma redução no transporte de calor em direção ao Hemisfério Norte (HN). No Hemisfério Sul (HS), no entanto, o transporte oceânico de calor aumenta substancialmente. Como resultado, ocorre um forte esfriamento ao longo do Atlântico Norte, enquanto que a região extratropical do HS aquece. A inibição da circulação termohalina também muda drasticamente a circulação atmosférica. Intensas anomalias de ventos da região equatorial induzem um transport de águas quentes e salinas, assim como são associadas com um aumento na advecção de ar quente dos trópicos. Esta interação oceano-atmosfera opõe-se à tendência climática inicial imposta pelo aumento de água doce no Atlântico Norte

Mediterranean winter rainfall in phase with African monsoons during the past 1.36 million years

Mediterranean climates are characterized by strong seasonal contrasts between dry summers and wet winters. Changes in winter rainfall are critical for regional socioeconomic development, but are difficult to simulate accurately1 and reconstruct on Quaternary timescales. This is partly because regional hydroclimate records that cover multiple glacial–interglacial cycles2,3 with different orbital geometries, global ice volume and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are scarce. Moreover, the underlying mechanisms of change and their persistence remain unexplored. Here we show that, over the past 1.36 million years, wet winters in the northcentral Mediterranean tend to occur with high contrasts in local, seasonal insolation and a vigorous African summer monsoon. Our proxy time series from Lake Ohrid on the Balkan Peninsula, together with a 784,000-year transient climate model hindcast, suggest that increased sea surface temperatures amplify local cyclone development and refuel North Atlantic low-pressure systems that enter the Mediterranean during phases of low continental ice volume and high concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases. A comparison with modern reanalysis data shows that current drivers of the amount of rainfall in the Mediterranean share some similarities to those that drive the reconstructed increases in precipitation. Our data cover multiple insolation maxima and are therefore an important benchmark for testing climate model performance

Modeling the influence of Greenland ice sheet melting on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation during the next millennia

A three-dimensional Earth system model of intermediate complexity including a dynamic ice sheet component has been used to investigate the long-term evolution of the Greenland ice sheet and its effects on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in response to a range of stabilized anthropogenic forcings. Our results suggest that the Greenland ice sheet volume should experience a significant decrease in the future. For a radiative forcing exceeding 7.5 W m-2, the modeled ice sheet melts away within 3000 years. A number of feedbacks operate during this deglaciation, implying a strong nonlinear relationship between the radiative forcing and the melting rate. Only in the most extreme scenarios considered, the freshwater flux from Greenland into the surrounding oceans (of ca. 0.1 Sv during a few centuries) induces a noticeable weakening of the AMOC in the model

Self perceptions as predictors for return to work 2 years after rehabilitation in orthopedic trauma inpatients.

Purpose This study aimed to identify self-perception variables which may predict return to work (RTW) in orthopedic trauma patients 2 years after rehabilitation. Methods A prospective cohort investigated 1,207 orthopedic trauma inpatients, hospitalised in rehabilitation, clinics at admission, discharge, and 2 years after discharge. Information on potential predictors was obtained from self administered questionnaires. Multiple logistic regression models were applied. Results In the final model, a higher likelihood of RTW was predicted by: better general health and lower pain at admission; health and pain improvements during hospitalisation; lower impact of event (IES-R) avoidance behaviour score; higher IES-R hyperarousal score, higher SF-36 mental score and low perceived severity of the injury. Conclusion RTW is not only predicted by perceived health, pain and severity of the accident at the beginning of a rehabilitation program, but also by the changes in pain and health perceptions observed during hospitalisation