1,635 research outputs found
Massive Multi-Agent Data-Driven Simulations of the GitHub Ecosystem
- Author
- Publication venue
- 'Springer Science and Business Media LLC'
- Publication date
- 15/08/2019
- Field of study
Simulating and predicting planetary-scale techno-social systems poses heavy
computational and modeling challenges. The DARPA SocialSim program set the
challenge to model the evolution of GitHub, a large collaborative
software-development ecosystem, using massive multi-agent simulations. We
describe our best performing models and our agent-based simulation framework,
which we are currently extending to allow simulating other planetary-scale
techno-social systems. The challenge problem measured participant's ability,
given 30 months of meta-data on user activity on GitHub, to predict the next
months' activity as measured by a broad range of metrics applied to ground
truth, using agent-based simulation. The challenge required scaling to a
simulation of roughly 3 million agents producing a combined 30 million actions,
acting on 6 million repositories with commodity hardware. It was also important
to use the data optimally to predict the agent's next moves. We describe the
agent framework and the data analysis employed by one of the winning teams in
the challenge. Six different agent models were tested based on a variety of
machine learning and statistical methods. While no single method proved the
most accurate on every metric, the broadly most successful sampled from a
stationary probability distribution of actions and repositories for each agent.
Two reasons for the success of these agents were their use of a distinct
characterization of each agent, and that GitHub users change their behavior
relatively slowly
Neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality and morbidity burden in the Eastern Mediterranean region: findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study
- Author
- Abate Kalkidan Hassen
- Abd El Razek Hassan Magdy
- Abd El Razek Mohammed Magdy
- Abdulkader Rizwan Suliankatchi
- Afshin Ashkan
- Alam Khurshid
- Alasfoor Deena
- Ali Raghib
- Alizadeh-Navaei Reza
- Alraddadi Rajaa
- Altirkawi Khalid A
- Alvis-Guzman Nelson
- Anber Nahla
- Ansari Hossein
- Antonio Carl Abelardo T
- Anwari Palwasha
- Arnlov Johan
- Artaman Al
- Asayesh Hamid
- Asgedom Solomon Weldegebreal
- Azzopardi Peter
- Bacha Umar
- Barac Aleksandra
- Barker-Collo Suzanne L
- Bedi Neeraj
- Beghi Ettore
- Bennett Derrick A
- Bhutta Zulfiqar A
- Bisanzio Donal
- Castaneda-Orjuela Carlos A
- Charara Raghid
- Chew Adrienne
- Collison Michael
- Colombara Danny
- Cornaby Leslie
- Danawi Hadi
- Daoud Farah
- Deribe Kebede
- Deribew Amare
- deVeber Gabrielle A
- Dey Subhojit
- Dharmaratne Samath D
- Djalalinia Shirin
- Do Huyen Phuc
- Ehrenkranz Rebecca
- El Bcheraoui Charbel
- Estanislao Castro Ruben
- Esteghamati Alireza
- Farvid Maryam S
- Fereshtehnejad Seyed-Mohammad
- Fischer Florian
- Foreman Kyle J
- Fraser Maya
- Frostad Joseph
- Gebrehiwot Tsegaye Tewelde
- Giussani Giorgia
- Gona Philimon N
- Hafezi-Nejad Nima
- Hamadeh Randah Ribhi
- Hamidi Samer
- Hay Simon I
- Hoy Damian G
- Hu Guoqing
- Jarlais Don C Des
- John Denny
- Jonas Jost B
- Jumaan Aisha O
- Karimi Seyed M
- Kasaeian Amir
- Kassebaum Nicholas J
- Kemmer Laura
- Khader Yousef Saleh
- Khalil Ibrahim
- Khan Ejaz Ahmad
- Khan Gulfaraz
- Kiadaliri Aliasghar Ahmad
- Kim Daniel
- Kim Yun Jin
- Kinfu Yohannes
- Krohn Kristopher J
- Kulikoff Xie Rachel
- Kutz Michael
- Kyu Hmwe H
- Larson Heidi J
- Latif Asma Abdul
- Leasher Janet L
- Liu Patrick
- Lunevicius Raimundas
- Majeed Azeem
- Malekzadeh Reza
- Memish Ziad A
- Mendoza Walter
- Mezgebe Haftay Berhane
- Mikesell Joseph
- Miller Ted R
- Mokdad Ali H
- Monasta Lorenzo
- Moradi-Lakeh Maziar
- Murray Christopher JL
- Naghavi Mohsen
- Nguyen Grant
- Nguyen Quyen Le
- Obermeyer Carla Makhlouf
- Ortiz Alberto
- Papachristou Christina
- Park Eun-Kee
- Pereira Claudia C
- Pereira David M
- Petzold Max
- Phillips Michael Robert
- Pourmalek Farshad
- Qorbani Mostafa
- Rafay Anwar
- Rahimi-Movaghar Vafa
- Rai Rajesh Kumar
- Rana Saleem M
- Rao Puja C
- Rawaf David Laith
- Rawaf Salman
- Reg GBD 2015 Eastern Mediterranean
- Renzaho Andre MN
- Rezaei Satar
- Rezai Mohammad Sadegh
- Ronfani Luca
- Roshandel Gholamreza
- Ruhago George Mugambage
- Safdarian Mahdi
- Safiri Saeid
- Sahraian Mohammad Ali
- Salamati Payman
- Samy Abdallah M
- Sanabria Juan Ramon
- Sartorius Benn
- Schwebel David C
- Seedat Soraya
- Sepanlou Sadaf G
- Setegn Tesfaye
- Shaheen Amira
- Shaikh Masood Ali
- Shamsizadeh Morteza
- Shiri Rahman
- Silpakit Naris
- Skirbekk Vegard
- Sligar Amber
- Smith Alison
- Sobaih Badr HA
- Sreeramareddy Chandrashekhar T
- Stanaway Jeffrey D
- Stathopoulou Vasiliki
- Tehrani-Banihashemi Arash
- Temsah Mohamad-Hani
- Thakur Arabia JS
- Thomson Alan J
- Tran Bach Xuan
- Truelsen Thomas
- Ukwaja Kingsley Nnanna
- Uthman Olalekan A
- Vasankari Tommi
- Vlassov Vasiliy Victorovich
- Vos Theo
- Wang Haidong
- Weiderpass Elisabete
- Weintraub Robert G
- Werdecker Andrea
- Yaghoubi Mohsen
- Yaseri Mehdi
- Yonemoto Naohiro
- Younis Mustafa Z
- Yu Chuanhua
- Publication venue
- 'Springer Science and Business Media LLC'
- Publication date
- 01/01/2017
- Field of study
Objectives
Although substantial reductions in under-5 mortality have been observed during the past 35 years, progress in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) has been uneven. This paper provides an overview of child mortality and morbidity in the EMR based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study.
Methods
We used GBD 2015 study results to explore under-5 mortality and morbidity in EMR countries.
Results
In 2015, 755,844 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 712,064–801,565) children under 5 died in the EMR. In the early neonatal category, deaths in the EMR decreased by 22.4%, compared to 42.4% globally. The rate of years of life lost per 100,000 population under 5 decreased 54.38% from 177,537 (173,812–181,463) in 1990 to 80,985 (76,308–85,876) in 2015; the rate of years lived with disability decreased by 0.57% in the EMR compared to 9.97% globally.
Conclusions
Our findings call for accelerated action to decrease child morbidity and mortality in the EMR. Governments and organizations should coordinate efforts to address this burden. Political commitment is needed to ensure that child health receives the resources needed to end preventable deaths
Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- Author
- Abajobir Amanuel Alemu
- Abate Kalkidan Hassen
- Abbafati Cristiana
- Abbas Kaja M.
- Abd-Allah Foad
- Abdulkader Rizwan Suliankatchi
- Abdulle Abdishakur M.
- Abera Semaw Ferede
- Aboyans Victor
- Abu-Raddad Laith J.
- Abu-Rmeileh Niveen M.E.
- Adedeji Isaac Akinkunmi
- Adetokunboh Olatunji
- Afshin Ashkan
- Agrawal Anurag
- Agrawal Sutapa
- Ahmadieh Hamid
- Ahmed Muktar Beshir
- Aichour Amani Nidhal
- Aichour Ibtihel
- Aichour Miloud Taki Eddine
- Aiyar Sneha
- Akinyemi Rufus Olusola
- Akseer Nadia
- Al-Aly Ziyad
- Al-Raddadi Rajaa
- Alam Khurshid
- Alam Noore
- Alasfoor Deena
- Alene Kefyalew Addis
- Alizadeh-Navaei Reza
- Alkerwi Ala'a
- Alla François
- Allebeck Peter
- Allen Christine
- Alsharif Ubai
- Altirkawi Khalid A.
- Alvis-Guzman Nelson
- Amare Azmeraw T.
- Amini Erfan
- Ammar Walid
- Ansari Hossein
- Antonio Carl Abelardo T.
- Anwari Palwasha
- Arora Megha
- Artaman Al
- Arthur Avokpaho Euripide Frinel G.
- Aryal Krishna Kumar
- Asayesh Hamid
- Asgedom Solomon Weldegebreal
- Assadi Reza
- Atey Tesfay Mehari
- Atre Sachin R.
- Avila-Burgos Leticia
- Awasthi Ashish
- Azzopardi Peter
- Bacha Umar
- Badawi Alaa
- Balakrishnan Kalpana
- Bannick Marlena S.
- Barac Aleksandra
- Barber Ryan M.
- Barker-Collo Suzanne L.
- Barrero Lope H.
- Basu Sanjay
- Battle Katherine E.
- Baune Bernhard T.
- Beardsley Justin
- Bedi Neeraj
- Beghi Ettore
- Bell Michelle L.
- Bennett Derrick A.
- Bennett James R.
- Bensenor Isabela M.
- Berhane Adugnaw
- Berhe Derbew Fikadu
- Bernabé Eduardo
- Betsu Balem Demtsu
- Beuran Mircea
- Beyene Addisu Shunu
- Bhala Neeraj
- Bhansali Anil
- Bhatt Samir
- Bhutta Zulfiqar A.
- Bicer Burcu Kucuk
- Bidgoli Hassan Haghparast
- Bikbov Boris
- Bilal Arebu I.
- Birungi Charles
- Biryukov Stan
- Bizuayehu Habtamu Mellie
- Blancas Maria Jesus Rios
- Blosser Christopher D.
- Boneya Dube Jara
- Bose Dipan
- Bou-Orm Ibrahim R.
- Brauer Michael
- Breitborde Nicholas J.K.
- Brugha Traolach S.
- Bulto Lemma Negesa Bulto
- Butt Zahid A.
- Bärnighausen Till
- Béjot Yannick
- Cahuana-Hurtado Lucero
- Cameron Ewan
- Campuzano Julio Cesar
- Carabin Hélène
- Carrero Juan Jesus
- Carter Austin
- Casey Daniel C.
- Castañeda-Orjuela Carlos A.
- Castro Ruben Estanislao
- Catalá-López Ferrán
- Cercy Kelly
- Chang Hsing-Yi
- Chang Jung-Chen
- Charlson Fiona J.
- Chew Adrienne
- Chisumpa Vesper Hichilombwe
- Chitheer Abdulaal A.
- Christensen Hanne
- Christopher Devasahayam Jesudas
- Cirillo Massimo
- Cooper Cyrus
- Criqui Michael H.
- Cromwell Elizabeth A.
- Crump John A.
- Cárdenas Rosario
- Dandona Lalit
- Dandona Rakhi
- Dargan Paul I.
- Das Neves José
- Davitoiu Dragos V.
- De Courten Barbora
- De Steur Hans
- Defo Barthelemy Kuate
- Degenhardt Louisa
- Deiparine Selina
- Deribe Kebede
- DeVeber Gabrielle A.
- Ding Eric L.
- Djalalinia Shirin
- Do Huyen Phuc
- Dokova Klara
- Doku David Teye
- Dorsey E. Ray
- Driscoll Tim R.
- Dubey Manisha
- Duncan Bruce Bartholow
- Ebel Beth E.
- Ebrahimi Hedyeh
- El Razek Hassan Magdy Abd
- El Razek Mohammed Magdy Abd
- El Sayed Zaki Maysaa
- El-Khatib Ziad Ziad
- Enayati Ahmadali
- Endries Aman Yesuf
- Ermakov Sergey Petrovich
- Erskine Holly E.
- Eshrati Babak
- Eskandarieh Sharareh
- Esteghamati Alireza
- Estep Kara
- Faraon Emerito Jose Aquino
- Faro André
- Farzadfar Farshad
- Fazeli Mir Sohail
- Feigin Valery L.
- Feigl Andrea B.
- Fereshtehnejad Seyed-Mohammad
- Fernandes João C.
- Ferrari Alize J.
- Feyissa Tesfaye Regassa
- Filip Irina
- Fischer Florian
- Fitzmaurice Christina
- Flaxman Abraham D.
- Foigt Nataliya
- Foreman Kyle J.
- Frank Tahvi
- Franklin Richard C.
- Friedman Joseph
- Frostad Joseph J.
- Fullman Nancy
- Furtado Joao M.
- Fürst Thomas
- Gakidou Emmanuela
- Garcia-Basteiro Alberto L.
- Gebrehiwot Tsegaye Tewelde
- Geleijnse Johanna M.
- Geleto Ayele
- Gemechu Bikila Lencha
- Gething Peter W.
- Gibney Katherine B.
- Gill Paramjit Singh
- Gillum Richard F.
- Giref Ababi Zergaw
- Gishu Melkamu Dedefo
- Giussani Giorgia
- Glenn Scott D.
- Godwin William W.
- Goldberg Ellen M.
- Gona Philimon N.
- Goodridge Amador
- Gopalani Sameer Vali
- Goryakin Yevgeniy
- Griswold Max
- Gugnani Harish Chander
- Gupta Rajeev
- Gupta Tanush
- Gupta Vipin
- Hafezi-Nejad Nima
- Hailu Gessessew Bugssa
- Hamadeh Randah Ribhi
- Hammami Mouhanad
- Hankey Graeme J.
- Harb Hilda L.
- Hareri Habtamu Abera
- Hassanvand Mohammad Sadegh
- Havmoeller Rasmus
- Hawley Caitlin
- Hay Simon I.
- He Jiawei
- Hendrie Delia
- Henry Nathaniel J.
- Heredia-Pi Ileana Beatriz
- Hernandez Julio Cesar Montañez
- Hoek Hans W.
- Holmberg Mollie
- Horita Nobuyuki
- Hosgood H. Dean
- Hostiuc Sorin
- Hoy Damian G.
- Hsairi Mohamed
- Htet Aung Soe
- Huang Hsiang
- Huang John J.
- Huynh Chantal
- Iburg Kim Moesgaard
- Ikeda Chad
- Inoue Manami
- Irvine Caleb Mackay Salpeter
- Islam Sheikh Mohammed Shariful
- Jacobsen Kathryn H.
- Jahanmehr Nader
- Jakovljevic Mihajlo B.
- Jauregui Alejandra
- Javanbakht Mehdi
- Jeemon Panniyammakal
- Jha Vivekanand
- John Denny
- Johnson Catherine O.
- Johnson Sarah Charlotte
- Jonas Jost B.
- Jürisson Mikk
- Kabir Zubair
- Kadel Rajendra
- Kahsay Amaha
- Kamal Ritul
- Karch André
- Karema Corine Kakizi
- Kasaeian Amir
- Kassebaum Nicholas J.
- Kastor Anshul
- Katikireddi Srinivasa Vittal
- Kawakami Norito
- Keiyoro Peter Njenga
- Kelbore Sefonias Getachew
- Kemmer Laura
- Kengne Andre Pascal
- Kesavachandran Chandrasekharan Nair
- Khader Yousef Saleh
- Khalil Ibrahim A.
- Khan Ejaz Ahmad
- Khang Young-Ho
- Khosravi Ardeshir
- Khubchandani Jagdish
- Kiadaliri Aliasghar Ahmad
- Kieling Christian
- Kim Daniel
- Kim Jun Y.
- Kim Yun Jin
- Kimokoti Ruth W.
- Kinfu Yohannes
- Kisa Adnan
- Kissimova-Skarbek Katarzyna A.
- Kivimaki Mika
- Kokubo Yoshihiro
- Kopec Jacek A.
- Kosen Soewarta
- Koul Parvaiz A.
- Koyanagi Ai
- Kravchenko Michael
- Krohn Kristopher J.
- Kulikoff Xie Rachel
- Kumar G. Anil
- Kutz Michael J.
- Kyu Hmwe H.
- Lal Dharmesh Kumar
- Lalloo Ratilal
- Lansingh Van C.
- Larsson Anders
- Lazarus Jeffrey Victor
- Lee Paul H.
- Leigh James
- Leung Janni
- Leung Ricky
- Levi Miriam
- Li Yongmei
- Liben Misgan Legesse
- Lim Stephen S.
- Linn Shai
- Liu Patrick Y.
- Liu Shiwei
- Lodha Rakesh
- Looker Katharine J.
- Lopez Alan D.
- Lorkowski Stefan
- Lotufo Paulo A.
- Lozano Rafael
- Lucas Timothy C.D.
- Lunevicius Raimundas
- Mackay Mark T.
- Maddison Emilie R.
- Mahesh
- Majdan Marek
- Majdzadeh Reza
- Majeed Azeem
- Malekzadeh Reza
- Malhotra Rajesh
- Malta Deborah Carvalho
- Mamun Abdullah A.
- Manguerra Helena
- Mantovani Lorenzo G.
- Manyazewal Tsegahun
- Mapoma Chabila C.
- Marks Guy B.
- Martin Randall V.
- Martinez-Raga Jose
- Martins-Melo Francisco Rogerlândio
- Martopullo Ira
- Mathur Manu Raj
- Mazidi Mohsen
- McAlinden Colm
- McGaughey Madeline
- McGrath John J.
- McKee Martin
- Mehata Suresh
- Mehndiratta Man Mohan
- Meier Toni
- Meles Kidanu Gebremariam
- Memish Ziad A.
- Mendoza Walter
- Mengesha Melkamu Merid
- Mengistie Mubarek Abera
- Mensah George A.
- Mensink Gert B.M.
- Mereta Seid Tiku
- Meretoja Atte
- Meretoja Tuomo J.
- Mezgebe Haftay Berhane
- Micha Renata
- Millear Anoushka
- Miller Ted R.
- Minnig Shawn
- Mirarefin Mojde
- Mirrakhimov Erkin M.
- Misganaw Awoke
- Mishra Shiva Raj
- Mitchell Philip B.
- Mohammad Karzan Abdulmuhsin
- Mohammed Kedir Endris
- Mohammed Shafiu
- Mohan Murali B.V.
- Mokdad Ali H.
- Mollenkopf Sarah K.
- Monasta Lorenzo
- Montico Marcella
- Moradi-Lakeh Maziar
- Moraga Paula
- Morawska Lidia
- Morrison Shane D.
- Moses Mark W.
- Mountjoy-Venning Cliff
- Mueller Ulrich O.
- Muller Kate
- Murray Christopher J.L.
- Murthy Gudlavalleti Venkata Satyanarayana
- Musa Kamarul Imran
- Naghavi Mohsen
- Naheed Aliya
- Naidoo Kovin S.
- Nangia Vinay
- Natarajan Gopalakrishnan
- Negoi Ionut
- Negoi Ruxandra Irina
- Nguyen Cuong Tat
- Nguyen Grant
- Nguyen Minh
- Nguyen Quyen Le
- Nguyen Trang Huyen
- Nichols Emma
- Ningrum Dina Nur Anggraini
- Nomura Marika
- Nong Vuong Minh
- Norheim Ole F.
- Noubiap Jean Jacques N.
- Obermeyer Carla Makhlouf
- Ogbo Felix Akpojene
- Oh In-Hwan
- Oladimeji Olanrewaju
- Olagunju Andrew Toyin
- Olagunju Tinuke Oluwasefunmi
- Olivares Pedro R.
- Olsen Helen E.
- Olusanya Bolajoko Olubukunola
- Olusanya Jacob Olusegun
- Ong Kanyin
- Oren Eyal
- Ortiz Alberto
- Owolabi Mayowa O.
- Pana Adrian
- Panda Basant Kumar
- Panda-Jonas Songhomitra
- Papachristou Christina
- Park Eun-Kee
- Patton George C.
- Paulson Katherine
- Pereira David M.
- Perico David Norberto
- Pesudovs Konrad
- Petzold Max
- Phillips Michael Robert
- Pigott David M.
- Pillay Julian David
- Pinho Christine
- Piradov Michael A.
- Pishgar Farhad
- Poulton Richie G.
- Pourmalek Farshad
- Qorbani Mostafa
- Radfar Amir
- Rafay Anwar
- Rahimi-Movaghar Vafa
- Rahman Mahfuzar
- Rahman Muhammad Aziz
- Rai Rajesh Kumar
- Rajsic Sasa
- Ram Usha
- Ranabhat Chhabi Lal
- Rao Puja C.
- Rawaf Salman
- Reidy Patrick
- Reiner Robert C.
- Reinig Nikolas
- Reitsma Marissa B.
- Remuzzi Giuseppe
- Renzaho Andre M.N.
- Resnikoff Serge
- Rezaei Satar
- Rivas Jacqueline Castillo
- Roba Kedir Teji
- Rojas-Rueda David
- Rokni Mohammad Bagher
- Roshandel Gholamreza
- Roth Gregory A.
- Roy Ambuj
- Rubagotti Enrico
- Sadat Nafis
- Safdarian Mahdi
- Safi Sare
- Safiri Saeid
- Sagar Rajesh
- Salama Joseph
- Salomon Joshua A.
- Samy Abdallah M.
- Sanabria Juan Ramon
- Santomauro Damian
- Santos Itamar S.
- Santos João Vasco
- Santric Milicevic Milena M.
- Sartorius Benn
- Satpathy Maheswar
- Sawhney Monika
- Saxena Sonia
- Saylan Mete I.
- Schmidt Maria Inês
- Schneider Ione J.C.
- Schneider Matthew T.
- Schutte Aletta E.
- Schwebel David C.
- Schwendicke Falk
- Schöttker Ben
- Seedat Soraya
- Sepanlou Sadaf G.
- Servan-Mori Edson E.
- Shackelford Katya Anne
- Shaheen Amira
- Shahraz Saeid
- Shaikh Masood Ali
- Shamsipour Mansour
- Shamsizadeh Morteza
- Sharma Jayendra
- Sharma Rajesh
- She Jun
- Shi Peilin
- Shibuya Kenji
- Shields Chloe
- Shifa Girma Temam
- Shiferaw Mekonnen Sisay
- Shigematsu Mika
- Shin Min-Jeong
- Shiri Rahman
- Shirkoohi Reza
- Shirude Shreya
- Shishani Kawkab
- Shoman Haitham
- Shrime Mark G.
- Silberberg Donald H.
- Silva Diego Augusto Santos
- Silva João Pedro
- Silveira Dayane Gabriele Alves
- Singh Jasvinder A.
- Singh Virendra
- Sinha Dhirendra Narain
- Skiadaresi Eirini
- Slepak Erica Leigh
- Sligar Amber
- Smith Alison
- Smith David L.
- Smith Mari
- Sobaih Badr H.A.
- Sobngwi Eugene
- Sofia E Sa Farinha Carla
- Soljak Michael
- Soneji Samir
- Sorensen Reed J.D.
- Sposato Luciano A.
- Sreeramareddy Chandrashekhar T.
- Srinivasan Vinay
- Stanaway Jeffrey D.
- Stein Dan J.
- Steiner Caitlyn
- Steinke Sabine
- Stokes Mark Andrew
- Strub Bryan
- Sufiyan Muawiyyah Babale
- Sunguya Bruno F.
- Sur Patrick J.
- Swaminathan Soumya
- Sykes Bryan L.
- Sylte Dillon O.
- Szoeke Cassandra E.I.
- Tabarés-Seisdedos Rafael
- Tadakamadla Santosh Kumar
- Tandon Nikhil
- Tao Tianchan
- Tarekegn Yihunie L.
- Tavakkoli Mohammad
- Taveira Nuno
- Tegegne Teketo Kassaw
- Terkawi Abdullah Sulieman
- Tessema Gizachew Assefa
- Thakur
- Thankappan Kavumpurathu Raman
- Thrift Amanda G.
- Tiruye Tenaw Yimer
- Tobe-Gai Ruoyan
- Topor-Madry Roman
- Torre Anna
- Tortajada Miguel
- Tran Bach Xuan
- Troeger Christopher
- Truelsen Thomas
- Tsoi Derrick
- Tuem Kald Beshir
- Tuzcu Emin Murat
- Tyrovolas Stefanos
- Ukwaja Kingsley N.
- Uneke Chigozie Jesse
- Updike Rachel
- Ur Rahman Mohammad Hifz
- Uthman Olalekan A.
- Van Boven Job F.M.
- Van Donkelaar Aaron
- Varughese Santosh
- Vasankari Tommi
- Venketasubramanian Narayanaswamy
- Vidavalur Ramesh
- Violante Francesco S.
- Vladimirov Sergey K.
- Vlassov Vasiliy Victorovich
- Vollset Stein Emil
- Vos Theo
- Wadilo Fiseha
- Wakayo Tolassa
- Wallin Mitchell T.
- Wang Yuan-Pang
- Weichenthal Scott
- Weiderpass Elisabete
- Weintraub Robert G.
- Weiss Daniel J.
- Werdecker Andrea
- Westerman Ronny
- Whiteford Harvey A.
- Wijeratne Tissa
- Wiysonge Charles Shey
- Woldeyes Belete Getahun
- Wolfe Charles D.A.
- Woodbrook Rachel
- Xavier Denis
- Xu Gelin
- Yadgir Simon
- Yakob Bereket
- Yan Lijing L.
- Yano Yuichiro
- Yaseri Mehdi
- Ye Pengpeng
- Yimam Hassen Hamid
- Yip Paul
- Yonemoto Naohiro
- Yoon Seok-Jun
- Yotebieng Marcel
- Younis Mustafa Z.
- Zaidi Zoubida
- Zavala-Arciniega Luis
- Zhang Xueying
- Zipkin Ben
- Zodpey Sanjay
- Publication venue
- Publication date
- 01/01/2017
- Field of study
The UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of “leaving no one behind”. Understanding today’s gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016), we measured 37 of the 50 health-related SDG indicators over the period 1990–2016 for 188 countries, and then on the basis of these past trends, we projected indicators to 2030
Optimasi Portofolio Resiko Menggunakan Model Markowitz MVO Dikaitkan dengan Keterbatasan Manusia dalam Memprediksi Masa Depan dalam Perspektif Al-Qur`an
- Author
- Aarrestad Thea Klaeboe
- Abbaneo Duccio
- Abbiendi Giovanni
- Abbrescia Marcello
- Abdullin Salavat
- Abdulsalam Abdulla
- Abercrombie Daniel
- Abu Zeid Shimaa
- Ackert Andrew
- Acosta Darin
- Acosta John Gabriel
- Adair Antony
- Adam Wolfgang
- Adams Jordon Rowe
- Adams Mark Raymond
- Adams Todd
- Adzic Petar
- Agapitos Antonis
- Aggleton Robin
- Agram Jean-Laurent
- Ahmad Ashfaq
- Ahmad Muhammad
- Ahmad Muhammad
- Ahmed Ijaz
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- Hatakeyama Kenichi
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- Hoehle Felix
- Hoepfner Kerstin
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- Kortelainen Matti J
- Korytov Andrey
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- Vlimant Jean-Roch
- Vogel Helmut
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- Volobouev Igor
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- Vorobyev Alexey
- Voutilainen Mikko
- Voytishin Nikolay
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- Wagner Stephen Robert
- Wagner-Kuhr Jeannine
- Walczak Marek
- Walia Genius
- Walker Matthew
- Wallny Rainer
- Walsh Roberval
- Waltenberger Wolfgang
- Wan Abdullah Wan Ahmad Tajuddin
- Wang Chunjie
- Wang Dayong
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- Wang Hui
- Wang Jian
- Wang Jing
- Wang Michael
- Wang Quan
- Wang Ren-Jie
- Wang Sean-Jiun
- Wang Ta-Wei
- Wang Yanchu
- Wang Zheng
- Wang Zhixing
- Waqas Muhammad
- Wardle Nicholas
- Wasserbaech Steven
- Wayand Stefan
- Wayne Mitchell
- Weber Hannsjoerg Artur
- Weber Hendrik
- Weber Marc
- Weber Matthias
- Wei Hua
- Weiler Thomas
- Weinberg Marc
- Welke Charles
- Wendland Lauri
- Wertz Sébastien
- West Christopher
- Wetzel James
- Whitbeck Andrew
- Wickramage Nadeesha
- Wilbur Scott
- Williams Thomas
- Williamson Shawn
- Wimpenny Stephen
- Winer Brian L
- Winn Dave
- Wissing Christoph
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- Yang Mingming
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- Yang Yong
- Yang Yu Chul
- Yates Brent
- Yazgan Efe
- Yelton John
- Yetkin Elif Asli
- Yetkin Taylan
- Yi Kai
- Yilmaz Yetkin
- Yohay Rachel
- Yonamine Ryo
- Yoo Hwi Dong
- Yoo Jaehyeok
- You Can
- Yu Geum Bong
- Yu Intae
- Yu Shin-Shan
- Yumiceva Francisco
- Yusli Mohd Nizam
- Zabel James
- Zabi Alexandre
- Zaganidis Nicolas
- Zagoździńska Agnieszka
- Zakaria Mohammed
- Zalewski Piotr
- Zanetti Anna
- Zanetti Marco
- Zarubin Anatoli
- Zeinali Maryam
- Zenoni Florian
- Zenz Seth Conrad
- Zeuner Wolfram Dietrich
- Zevi Della Porta Giovanni
- Zeyrek Mehmet
- Zghiche Amina
- Zhang Fengwangdong
- Zhang Huaqiao
- Zhang Jingyu
- Zhao Jingzhou
- Zhokin Alexander
- Zhu Ren-Yuan
- Zhukov Valery
- Zhukova Victoria
- Zientek Margaret
- Zolkapli Zukhaimira
- Zorbakir Ibrahim Soner
- Zorbilmez Caglar
- Zotto Pierluigi
- Zou David
- Zsigmond Anna Julia
- Zucchetta Alberto
- Zumerle Gianni
- Zuranski Andrzej
- Publication venue
- Sunan Kalijaga State Islamic University
- Publication date
- 01/01/2012
- Field of study
Risk portfolio on modern finance has become increasingly technical, requiring the use of sophisticated mathematical tools in both research and practice. Since companies cannot insure themselves completely against risk, as human incompetence in predicting the future precisely that written in Al-Quran surah Luqman verse 34, they have to manage it to yield an optimal portfolio. The objective here is to minimize the variance among all portfolios, or alternatively, to maximize expected return among all portfolios that has at least a certain expected return. Furthermore, this study focuses on optimizing risk portfolio so called Markowitz MVO (Mean-Variance Optimization). Some theoretical frameworks for analysis are arithmetic mean, geometric mean, variance, covariance, linear programming, and quadratic programming. Moreover, finding a minimum variance portfolio produces a convex quadratic programming, that is minimizing the objective function ðð¥with constraintsð ð 𥠥 ðandð´ð¥ = ð. The outcome of this research is the solution of optimal risk portofolio in some investments that could be finished smoothly using MATLAB R2007b software together with its graphic analysis
Impacts of the Tropical Pacific/Indian Oceans on the Seasonal Cycle of the West African Monsoon
- Author
- Abbaneo Duccio
- Abbiendi Giovanni
- Abbrescia Marcello
- Abdullin Salavat
- Abdulsalam Abdulla
- Acosta Darin
- Acosta John Gabriel
- Adair Antony
- Adam Wolfgang
- Adams Mark Raymond
- Adams Todd
- Adiguzel Aytul
- Adler Volker
- Adzic Petar
- Afanasiev Serguei
- Agapitos Antonis
- Agram Jean-Laurent
- Ahmad Ashfaq
- Ahmad Muhammad
- Ahuja Sudha
- Akchurin Nural
- Akgun Bora
- Akin Ilina Vasileva
- Albajar Carmen
- Albayrak Elif Asli
- Albergo Sebastiano
- Albrow Michael
- Alcaraz Maestre Juan
- Aldaya Martin Maria
- Alderweireldt Sara
- Aldá Júnior Walter Luiz
- Aleksandrov Aleksandar
- Alexander James
- Alimena Juliette
- Alverson George
- Alves Gilvan
- Amapane Nicola
- Amsler Claude
- Anagnostou Georgios
- Anderson Ian
- Anderson Jacob
- Andrea Jeremy
- Andreev Vladimir
- Andreev Yuri
- Androsov Konstantin
- Antonelli Louis
- Antunovic Zeljko
- Apanasevich Leonard
- Apollinari Giorgio
- Appelt Eric
- Apresyan Artur
- Apyan Aram
- Arcidiacono Roberta
- Arenton Michael Wayne
- Argiro Stefano
- Arneodo Michele
- Arora Sanjay
- Asavapibhop Burin
- Asawatangtrakuldee Chayanit
- Asin Ivan
- Askew Andrew
- Aslanoglou Xenofon
- Assran Yasser
- Ata Metin
- Attikis Alexandros
- Aubin Alexandre
- Auffray Etiennette
- Autermann Christian Tobias
- Auzinger Georg
- Avdeeva Ekaterina
- Avery Paul
- Avetisyan Aram
- Avila Carlos
- Azarkin Maksim
- Azhgirey Igor
- Aziz Tariq
- Azzi Patrizia
- Azzolini Virginia
- Azzurri Paolo
- Baarmand Marc M.
- Baber Mark
- Bacchetta Nicola
- Bachmair Felix
- Bachtis Michail
- Baden Drew
- Baffioni Stephanie
- Bagliesi Giuseppe
- Baillon Paul
- Bainbridge Robert
- Bakhshiansohi Hamed
- Bakirci Mustafa Numan
- Ball Austin
- Ban Yong
- Banerjee Sudeshna
- Banerjee Sunanda
- Bansal Sunil
- Barbagli Giuseppe
- Barberis Emanuela
- Barbieri Richard
- Bargassa Pedrame
- Barge Derek
- Baringer Philip
- Barker Anthony
- Barnes Virgil E.
- Barnett Bruce Arnold
- Barney David
- Barone Luciano
- Barth Christian
- Bartosik Nazar
- Basegmez Suzan
- Battilana Carlo
- Bauerdick Lothar A. T.
- Baumgartel Darin
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- Bean Alice
- Beauceron Stephanie
- Beaudette Florian
- Beaupere Nicolas
- Beernaert Kelly
- Behnamian Hadi
- Behr Joerg
- Behrens Ulf
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- Beliy Nikita
- Belknap Donald
- Bell Alan James
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- Bellan Riccardo
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- de Trocóniz Jorge F.
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- De Wolf Eddi A.
- Degano Alessandro
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- Tripathi Mani
- Trocino Daniele
- Trocsanyi Zoltan Laszlo
- Troendle Daniel
- Tropiano Antonio
- Troshin Sergey
- Tsamalaidze Zviad
- Tsirou Andromachi
- Tu Yanjun
- Tucker Jordan
- Tully Christopher
- Tumasyan Armen
- Tuo Shengquan
- Tuominen Eija
- Tuominiemi Jorma
- Tuovinen Esa
- Turkewitz Jared
- Turner Mark
- Turner Paul
- Tuuva Tuure
- Tuve Cristina
- Tytgat Michael
- Tyurin Nikolay
- Tzeng Yeng-Ming
- Ujvari Balazs
- Ulmer Keith
- Ulrich Ralf
- Umer Tomo
- Uplegger Lorenzo
- Usai Emanuele
- Uvarov Lev
- Uzunian Andrey
- Vaandering Eric Wayne
- Valls Nil
- Valuev Vyacheslav
- Van De Klundert Merijn
- Van Doninck Walter
- Van Haevermaet Hans
- Van Hove Pierre
- Van Mechelen Pierre
- Van Mulders Petra
- Van Onsem Gerrit Patrick
- Van Remortel Nick
- Van Spilbeeck Alex
- Vander Donckt Muriel
- Vander Velde Catherine
- Vanelderen Lukas
- Vanhoefer Annika
- Vanlaer Pascal
- Vardarli Fuat Ilkehan
- Varela Joao
- Varelas Nikos
- Vartak Adish
- Vavilov Sergey
- Vazquez Acosta Monica
- Vazquez Valencia Fabiola
- Veelken Christian
- Veeraraghavan Venkatesh
- Vega Morales Roberto
- Velasco Mayda
- Velicanu Dragos
- Velkovska Julia
- Venditti Rosamaria
- Venturi Andrea
- Verdier Patrice
- Verdini Piero Giorgio
- Veres Gabor Istvan
- Vergili Mehmet
- Vernieri Caterina
- Verwilligen Piet
- Verzetti Mauro
- Veszpremi Viktor
- Vesztergombi Gyorgy
- Veverka Jan
- Vidal Marono Miguel
- Vidal Richard
- Vila Ivan
- Vilar Cortabitarte Rocio
- Vilela Pereira Antonio
- Villella Ilaria
- Vinogradov Alexey
- Virdee Tejinder
- Viret Sébastien
- Vischia Pietro
- Vishnevskiy Dmitry
- Vitulo Paolo
- Vizan Garcia Jesus Manuel
- Vlasov Evgueni
- Vlimant Jean-Roch
- Vogel Helmut
- Volkov Alexey
- Volobouev Igor
- Volpe Roberta
- Vorobiev Igor
- Vorobyev Alexey
- Vorobyev Andrey
- Voutilainen Mikko
- Vuosalo Carl
- Vutova Mariana
- Wagner Stephen Robert
- Wagner-Kuhr Jeannine
- Walker Matthew
- Wallny Rainer
- Walsh Roberval
- Waltenberger Wolfgang
- Wang Dayong
- Wang Fuqiang
- Wang Jian
- Wang Quan
- Wang Ren-Jie
- Wang Zheng
- Wardle Nicholas
- Wayand Stefan
- Wayne Mitchell
- Weber Hannsjoerg Artur
- Weber Hendrik
- Weber Martin
- Weber Matthias
- Weiler Thomas
- Weinberg Marc
- Welke Charles
- Wendland Lauri
- Weng Yao
- Werner Jeremy Scott
- West Christopher
- Wetzel James
- Whitbeck Andrew
- Whitmore Juliana
- Wickramage Nadeesha
- Wilbur Scott
- Wilken Rachel
- Wilkinson Richard
- Williams Thomas
- Wimpenny Stephen
- Winer Brian L.
- Winn Dave
- Winstrom Lucas
- Wissing Christoph
- Wittich Peter
- Wittmer Bruno
- Wolf Matthias
- Wolf Roger
- Wolfe Homer
- Wollny Heiner
- Womersley William John
- Won Steven
- Wood Darien
- Wood Jeffrey Scott
- Wood John
- Woodard Anna
- Woods Nathaniel
- Worm Steven
- Wright Douglas
- Wulsin Howard Wells
- Wulz Claudia-Elisabeth
- Wyslouch Bolek
- Wöhri Hermine Katharina
- Würthwein Frank
- Xiao Hong
- Xiao Meng
- Xie Si
- Xie Wei
- Xu Lingshan
- Xu Zijun
- Yagil Avraham
- Yalvac Metin
- Yang Fan
- Yang Mingming
- Yang Yong
- Yazgan Efe
- Yelton John
- Yetkin Taylan
- Yi Kai
- Yilmaz Yetkin
- Yohay Rachel
- Yoo Hwi Dong
- Yoo Jaehyeok
- York Andrew
- You Can
- Yu Intae
- Yu Shin-Shan
- Yumiceva Francisco
- Zabel James
- Zabi Alexandre
- Zablocki Jakub
- Zaganidis Nicolas
- Zakaria Mohammed
- Zalewski Piotr
- Zanetti Anna
- Zanetti Marco
- Zarubin Anatoli
- Zeinali Maryam
- Zenoni Florian
- Zenz Seth Conrad
- Zeuner Wolfram Dietrich
- Zeyrek Mehmet
- Zhang Jinzhong
- Zhokin Alexander
- Zhu Ren-Yuan
- Zhukov Valery
- Zhukova Victoria
- Zorbilmez Caglar
- Zotto Pierluigi
- Zou Wei
- Zsigmond Anna Julia
- Zucchetta Alberto
- Zumerle Gianni
- Zuranski Andrzej
- Zvada Marian
- Publication venue
- American Meteorological Society
- Publication date
- 01/08/2011
- Field of study
The current consensus is that drought has developed in the Sahel during the second half of the twentieth century as a result of remote effects of oceanic anomalies amplified by local land–atmosphere interactions. This paper focuses on the impacts of oceanic anomalies upon West African climate and specifically aims to identify those from SST anomalies in the Pacific/Indian Oceans during spring and summer seasons, when they were significant. Idealized sensitivity experiments are performed with four atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs). The prescribed SST patterns used in the AGCMs are based on the leading mode of covariability between SST anomalies over the Pacific/Indian Oceans and summer rainfall over West Africa. The results show that such oceanic anomalies in the Pacific/Indian Ocean lead to a northward shift of an anomalous dry belt from the Gulf of Guinea to the Sahel as the season advances. In the Sahel, the magnitude of rainfall anomalies is comparable to that obtained by other authors using SST anomalies confined to the proximity of the Atlantic Ocean. The mechanism connecting the Pacific/Indian SST anomalies with West African rainfall has a strong seasonal cycle. In spring (May and June), anomalous subsidence develops over both the Maritime Continent and the equatorial Atlantic in response to the enhanced equatorial heating. Precipitation increases over continental West Africa in association with stronger zonal convergence of moisture. In addition, precipitation decreases over the Gulf of Guinea. During the monsoon peak (July and August), the SST anomalies move westward over the equatorial Pacific and the two regions where subsidence occurred earlier in the seasons merge over West Africa. The monsoon weakens and rainfall decreases over the Sahel, especially in August.Peer reviewe
Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 328 diseases and injuries for 195 countries, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- Author
- Abajobir Amanuel Alemu
- Abate Kalkidan Hassen
- Abbafati Cristiana
- Abbas Kaja M.
- Abd-Allah Foad
- Abdulle Abdishakur M.
- Abebo Teshome Abuka
- Abera Semaw Ferede
- Aboyans Victor
- Abu-Raddad Laith J.
- Ackerman Ilana N.
- Adamu Abdu Abdullahi
- Adetokunboh Olatunji
- Afarideh Mohsen
- Afshin Ashkan
- Agarwal Sanjay Kumar
- Aggarwal Rakesh
- Agrawal Anurag
- Agrawal Sutapa
- Ahmad Kiadaliri Aliasghar
- Ahmadieh Hamid
- Ahmed Muktar Beshir
- Aichour Amani Nidhal
- Aichour Ibtihel
- Aichour Miloud Taki Eddine
- Aiyar Sneha
- Akinyemi Rufus Olusola
- Akseer Nadia
- Al Lami Faris Hasan
- Al-Aly Ziyad
- Al-Maskari Fatma
- Al-Raddadi Rajaa
- Alahdab Fares
- Alam Khurshid
- Alam Noore
- Alam Tahiya
- Alasfoor Deena
- Alene Kefyalew Addis
- Ali Raghib
- Alizadeh-Navaei Reza
- Alkerwi Ala'a
- Alla François
- Allebeck Peter
- Allen Christine
- Alsharif Ubai
- Alsowaidi Shirina
- Altirkawi Khalid A.
- Amare Azmeraw T.
- Amini Erfan
- Ammar Walid
- Amoako Yaw Ampem
- Andersen Hjalte H.
- Antonio Carl Abelardo T.
- Anwari Palwasha
- Artaman Al
- Aryal Krishna Kumar
- Asayesh Hamid
- Asgedom Solomon W.
- Assadi Reza
- Atey Tesfay Mehari
- Atnafu Niguse Tadele
- Atre Sachin R.
- Avila-Burgos Leticia
- Avokpaho Euripide Frinel G. Arthur
- Awasthi Ashish
- Ayala Quintanilla Beatriz Paulina
- Ba Saleem Huda Omer
- Bacha Umar
- Badawi Alaa
- Balakrishnan Kalpana
- Banerjee Amitava
- Bannick Marlena S.
- Barac Aleksandra
- Barber Ryan M.
- Barker-Collo Suzanne L.
- Barquera Simon
- Barregard Lars
- Barrero Lope H.
- Basu Sanjay
- Battista Bob
- Battle Katherine E.
- Baune Bernhard T.
- Bazargan-Hejazi Shahrzad
- Beardsley Justin
- Bedi Neeraj
- Beghi Ettore
- Bekele Bayu Begashaw
- Bell Michelle L.
- Bennett Derrick A.
- Bensenor Isabela M.
- Benson Jennifer
- Berhane Adugnaw
- Berhe Derbew Fikadu
- Bernabé Eduardo
- Betsu Balem Demtsu
- Beuran Mircea
- Beyene Addisu Shunu
- Bhala Neeraj
- Bhansali Anil
- Bhatt Samir
- Bhutta Zulfiqar A.
- Biadgilign Sibhatu
- Bienhoff Kelly
- Bikbov Boris
- Birungi Charles
- Biryukov Stan
- Bisanzio Donal
- Bizuayehu Habtamu Mellie
- Boneya Dube Jara
- Boufous Soufiane
- Bourne Rupert R.A.
- Brazinova Alexandra
- Brugha Traolach S.
- Buchbinder Rachelle
- Bulto Lemma Negesa Bulto
- Bumgarner Blair R.
- Butt Zahid A.
- Bärnighausen Till
- Béjot Yannick
- Cahuana-Hurtado Lucero
- Cameron Ewan
- Car Mate
- Carabin Hélène
- Carapetis Jonathan R.
- Carpenter David O.
- Carrero Juan Jesus
- Carter Austin
- Carvalho Felix
- Casey Daniel C.
- Caso Valeria
- Castañeda-Orjuela Carlos A.
- Castle Chris D.
- Catalá-López Ferrán
- Chang Hsing-Yi
- Chang Jung-Chen
- Charlson Fiona J.
- Chen Honglei
- Chibalabala Mirriam
- Chibueze Chioma Ezinne
- Chisumpa Vesper Hichilombwe
- Chitheer Abdulaal A.
- Christopher Devasahayam Jesudas
- Ciobanu Liliana G.
- Cirillo Massimo
- Colombara Danny
- Cooper Cyrus
- Cortesi Paolo Angelo
- Criqui Michael H.
- Crump John A.
- Cárdenas Rosario
- Dadi Abel Fekadu
- Dalal Koustuv
- Dandona Lalit
- Dandona Rakhi
- Das Neves José
- Davitoiu Dragos V.
- De Courten Barbora
- De Leo Diego
- Degenhardt Louisa
- Deiparine Selina
- Dellavalle Robert P.
- Deribe Kebede
- Des Jarlais Don C.
- Dey Subhojit
- Dharmaratne Samath D.
- Dhillon Preet Kaur
- Dicker Daniel
- Ding Eric L.
- Djalalinia Shirin
- Do Huyen Phuc
- Dorsey E. Ray
- Dos Santos Kadine Priscila Bender
- Douwes-Schultz Dirk
- Doyle Kerrie E.
- Driscoll Tim R.
- Dubey Manisha
- Duncan Bruce Bartholow
- El-Khatib Ziad Ziad
- Ellerstrand Jerisha
- Enayati Ahmadali
- Endries Aman Yesuf
- Ermakov Sergey Petrovich
- Erskine Holly E.
- Eshrati Babak
- Eskandarieh Sharareh
- Esteghamati Alireza
- Estep Kara
- Fanuel Fanuel Belayneh Bekele
- Farinha Carla Sofia E. Sa
- Faro André
- Farzadfar Farshad
- Fazeli Mir Sohail
- Feigin Valery L.
- Fereshtehnejad Seyed-Mohammad
- Fernandes João C.
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- Feyissa Tesfaye Regassa
- Filip Irina
- Fischer Florian
- Fitzmaurice Christina
- Flaxman Abraham D.
- Flor Luisa Sorio
- Foigt Nataliya
- Foreman Kyle J.
- Franklin Richard C.
- Fullman Nancy
- Furtado Joao M.
- Futran Neal D.
- Fürst Thomas
- Gakidou Emmanuela
- Ganji Morsaleh
- Garcia-Basteiro Alberto L.
- Gebre Teshome
- Gebrehiwot Tsegaye Tewelde
- Geleto Ayele
- Gemechu Bikila Lencha
- Gesesew Hailay Abrha
- Gething Peter W.
- Ghajar Alireza
- Gibney Katherine B.
- Gill Paramjit Singh
- Gillum Richard F.
- Ginawi Ibrahim Abdelmageem Mohamed
- Giref Ababi Zergay
- Gishu Melkamu Dedefo
- Giussani Giorgia
- Godwin William W.
- Gold Audra L.
- Goldberg Ellen M.
- Gona Philimon N.
- Goodridge Amador
- Gopalani Sameer Vali
- Goto Atsushi
- Goulart Alessandra Carvalho
- Griswold Max
- Gugnani Harish Chander
- Gupta Rahul
- Gupta Rajeev
- Gupta Tanush
- Gupta Vipin
- Hafezi-Nejad Nima
- Hailu Alemayehu Desalegne
- Hailu Gessessew Bugssa
- Hamadeh Randah Ribhi
- Hamidi Samer
- Handal Alexis J.
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- Hao Yuantao
- Harb Hilda L.
- Hareri Habtamu Abera
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- Havmoeller Rasmus
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- Hernandez Julio Montañez
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- Hoek Hans W.
- Hoffman Howard J.
- Horita Nobuyuki
- Hosgood H. Dean
- Hostiuc Sorin
- Hotez Peter J.
- Hoy Damian G.
- Htet Aung Soe
- Hu Guoqing
- Huang Hsiang
- Huynh Chantal
- Iburg Kim Moesgaard
- Igumbor Ehimario Uche
- Ikeda Chad
- Irvine Caleb Mackay Salpeter
- Jacobsen Kathryn H.
- Jahanmehr Nader
- Jakovljevic Mihajlo B.
- Jassal Simerjot K.
- Javanbakht Mehdi
- Jayaraman Sudha P.
- Jeemon Panniyammakal
- Jensen Paul N.
- Jha Vivekanand
- Jiang Guohong
- John Denny
- Johnson Catherine O.
- Johnson Sarah Charlotte
- Jonas Jost B.
- Jürisson Mikk
- Kabir Zubair
- Kadel Rajendra
- Kahsay Amaha
- Kamal Ritul
- Kan Haidong
- Karam Nadim E.
- Karch André
- Karema Corine Kakizi
- Kasaeian Amir
- Kassa Getachew Mullu
- Kassaw Nigussie Assefa
- Kassebaum Nicholas J.
- Kastor Anshul
- Katikireddi Srinivasa Vittal
- Kaul Anil
- Kawakami Norito
- Keiyoro Peter Njenga
- Kengne Andre Pascal
- Keren Andre
- Khader Yousef Saleh
- Khalil Ibrahim A.
- Khan Ejaz Ahmad
- Khang Young-Ho
- Khosravi Ardeshir
- Khubchandani Jagdish
- Kieling Christian
- Kim Daniel
- Kim Pauline
- Kim Yun Jin
- Kimokoti Ruth W.
- Kinfu Yohannes
- Kisa Adnan
- Kissimova-Skarbek Katarzyna A.
- Kivimaki Mika
- Knudsen Ann Kristin
- Kokubo Yoshihiro
- Kolte Dhaval
- Kopec Jacek A.
- Kosen Soewarta
- Koul Parvaiz A.
- Koyanagi Ai
- Kravchenko Michael
- Krishnaswami Sanjay
- Krohn Kristopher J.
- Kuate Defo Barthelemy
- Kucuk Bicer Burcu
- Kumar G. Anil
- Kumar Pushpendra
- Kumar Sanjiv
- Kyu Hmwe H.
- Lal Dharmesh Kumar
- Lalloo Ratilal
- Lambert Nkurunziza
- Lan Qing
- Larsson Anders
- Lavados Pablo M.
- Leasher Janet L.
- Lee Jong-Tae
- Lee Paul H.
- Leigh James
- Leshargie Cheru Tesema
- Leung Janni
- Leung Ricky
- Levi Miriam
- Li Kappe Darya
- Li Yichong
- Li Yongmei
- Liang Xiaofeng
- Liben Misgan Legesse
- Lim Stephen S.
- Linn Shai
- Liu Angela
- Liu Patrick Y.
- Liu Shiwei
- Liu Yang
- Lodha Rakesh
- Logroscino Giancarlo
- London Stephanie J.
- Looker Katharine J.
- Lopez Alan D.
- Lorkowski Stefan
- Lotufo Paulo A.
- Low Nicola
- Lozano Rafael
- Lucas Timothy C.D.
- Macarayan Erlyn Rachelle King
- Magdy Abd El Razek Hassan
- Magdy Abd El Razek Mohammed
- Mahdavi Mahdi
- Majdan Marek
- Majdzadeh Reza
- Majeed Azeem
- Malekzadeh Reza
- Malhotra Rajesh
- Malta Deborah Carvalho
- Mamun Abdullah A.
- Manguerra Helena
- Manhertz Treh
- Mantilla Ana
- Mantovani Lorenzo G.
- Mapoma Chabila C.
- Marczak Laurie B.
- Martinez-Raga Jose
- Martins-Melo Francisco Rogerlândio
- Martopullo Ira
- Mathur Manu Raj
- Mazidi Mohsen
- McAlinden Colm
- McGaughey Madeline
- McGrath John J.
- McKee Martin
- McNellan Claire
- Mehata Suresh
- Mehndiratta Man Mohan
- Mekonnen Tefera Chane
- Memiah Peter
- Memish Ziad A.
- Mendoza Walter
- Mengistie Mubarek Abera
- Mengistu Desalegn Tadese
- Mensah George A.
- Meretoja Atte
- Meretoja Tuomo J.
- Mezgebe Haftay Berhane
- Micha Renata
- Millear Anoushka
- Miller Ted R.
- Mills Edward J.
- Mirarefin Mojde
- Mirrakhimov Erkin M.
- Misganaw Awoke
- Mishra Shiva Raj
- Mitchell Philip B.
- Mohammad Karzan Abdulmuhsin
- Mohammadi Alireza
- Mohammed Kedir Endris
- Mohammed Shafiu
- Mohanty Sanjay K.
- Mokdad Ali H.
- Mollenkopf Sarah K.
- Monasta Lorenzo
- Montico Marcella
- Moradi-Lakeh Maziar
- Moraga Paula
- Mori Rintaro
- Morozoff Chloe
- Morrison Shane D.
- Moses Mark
- Mountjoy-Venning Cliff
- Mruts Kalayu Birhane
- Mueller Ulrich O.
- Muller Kate
- Murdoch Michele E.
- Murray Christopher J.L.
- Murthy Gudlavalleti Venkata Satyanarayana
- Musa Kamarul Imran
- März Winfried
- Nachega Jean B.
- Nagel Gabriele
- Naghavi Mohsen
- Naheed Aliya
- Naidoo Kovin S.
- Naldi Luigi
- Nangia Vinay
- Natarajan Gopalakrishnan
- Negasa Dumessa Edessa
- Negoi Ionut
- Negoi Ruxandra Irina
- Newton Charles R.
- Ngunjiri Josephine Wanjiku
- Nguyen Cuong Tat
- Nguyen Grant
- Nguyen Minh
- Nguyen Quyen Le
- Nguyen Trang Huyen
- Nichols Emma
- Ningrum Dina Nur Anggraini
- Nolte Sandra
- Nong Vuong Minh
- Norrving Bo
- Noubiap Jean Jacques N.
- O'Donnell Martin J.
- Ogbo Felix Akpojene
- Oh In-Hwan
- Okoro Anselm
- Oladimeji Olanrewaju
- Olagunju Andrew Toyin
- Olagunju Tinuke Oluwasefunmi
- Olsen Helen E.
- Olusanya Bolajoko Olubukunola
- Olusanya Jacob Olusegun
- Ong Kanyin
- Opio John Nelson
- Oren Eyal
- Ortiz Alberto
- Osgood-Zimmerman Aaron
- Osman Majdi
- Owolabi Mayowa O.
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- Pacella Rosana E.
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- Patton George C.
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- Perico Norberto
- Pesudovs Konrad
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- Petzold Max
- Phillips Michael Robert
- Pigott David M.
- Pillay Julian David
- Pinho Christine
- Plass Dietrich
- Pletcher Martin A.
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- Prasad Noela M.
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- Rabiee Rynaz H.S.
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- Rahimi-Movaghar Vafa
- Rahman Mahfuzar
- Rahman Mohammad Hifz Ur
- Rai Rajesh Kumar
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- Satpathy Maheswar
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- Schöttker Ben
- Seedat Soraya
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- Shaheen Amira
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- Shariful Islam Sheikh Mohammed
- Sharma Jayendra
- Sharma Rajesh
- She Jun
- Shi Peilin
- Shields Chloe
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- Shinohara Yukito
- Shiri Rahman
- Shirkoohi Reza
- Shirude Shreya
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- Sibai Abla Mehio
- Sigfusdottir Inga Dora
- Silva Diego Augusto Santos
- Silva João Pedro
- Silveira Dayane Gabriele Alves
- Singh Jasvinder A.
- Singh Narinder Pal
- Sinha Dhirendra Narain
- Skiadaresi Eirini
- Skirbekk Vegard
- Slepak Erica Leigh
- Sligar Amber
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- Sobaih Badr H.A.
- Sobngwi Eugene
- Sorensen Reed J.D.
- Sousa Tatiane Cristina Moraes
- Sposato Luciano A.
- Sreeramareddy Chandrashekhar T.
- Srinivasan Vinay
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- Steiner Caitlyn
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- Stokes Mark Andrew
- Stovner Lars Jacob
- Strub Bryan
- Subart Michelle
- Sufiyan Muawiyyah Babale
- Suliankatchi Abdulkader Rizwan
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- Tavakkoli Mohammad
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- Tehrani-Banihashemi Arash
- Tekelab Tesfalidet
- Temam Shifa Girma
- Terkawi Abdullah Sulieman
- Tesfaye Dawit Jember
- Tesssema Belay
- Thamsuwan Ornwipa
- Thomas Katie E.
- Thrift Amanda G.
- Tiruye Tenaw Yimer
- Tobe-Gai Ruoyan
- Tollanes Mette C.
- Tonelli Marcello
- Topor-Madry Roman
- Tortajada Miguel
- Touvier Mathilde
- Tran Bach Xuan
- Tripathi Suryakant
- Troeger Christopher
- Truelsen Thomas
- Tsoi Derrick
- Tuem Kald Beshir
- Tuzcu Emin Murat
- Tyrovolas Stefanos
- Ukwaja Kingsley N.
- Undurraga Eduardo A.
- Uneke Chigozie Jesse
- Updike Rachel
- Uthman Olalekan A.
- Uzochukwu Benjamin S. Chudi
- Van Boven Job F.M.
- Varughese Santosh
- Vasankari Tommi
- Venkatesh
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- Vladimirov Sergey K.
- Vlassov Vasiliy Victorovich
- Vollset Stein Emil
- Vos Theo
- Wadilo Fiseha
- Wakayo Tolassa
- Wang Yuan-Pang
- Weaver Marcia
- Weichenthal Scott
- Weiderpass Elisabete
- Weintraub Robert G.
- Werdecker Andrea
- Westerman Ronny
- Whiteford Harvey A.
- Wijeratne Tissa
- Wiysonge Charles Shey
- Wolfe Charles D.A.
- Woodbrook Rachel
- Woolf Anthony D.
- Workicho Abdulhalik
- Wulf Hanson Sarah
- Xavier Denis
- Xu Gelin
- Yadgir Simon
- Yaghoubi Mohsen
- Yakob Bereket
- Yan Lijing L.
- Yano Yuichiro
- Ye Pengpeng
- Yimam Hassen Hamid
- Yip Paul
- Yonemoto Naohiro
- Yoon Seok-Jun
- Yotebieng Marcel
- Younis Mustafa Z.
- Zaidi Zoubida
- Zaki Maysaa El Sayed
- Zegeye Elias Asfaw
- Zenebe Zerihun Menlkalew
- Zhang Xueying
- Zhou Maigeng
- Zipkin Ben
- Zodpey Sanjay
- Zuhlke Liesl Joanna
- Ärnlöv Johan
- Publication venue
- Publication date
- 01/01/2017
- Field of study
As mortality rates decline, life expectancy increases, and populations age, non-fatal outcomes of diseases and injuries are becoming a larger component of the global burden of disease. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 328 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016
Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 333 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- Author
- Abajobir Amanuel Alemu
- Abate Kalkidan Hassen
- Abbafati Cristiana
- Abbas Kaja M.
- Abd-Allah Foad
- Abdulkader Rizwan Suliankatchi
- Abdulle Abdishakur M.
- Abebo Teshome Abuka
- Abera Semaw Ferede
- Aboyans Victor
- Abu-Raddad Laith J.
- Ackerman Ilana N.
- Adedeji Isaac A.
- Adedji
- Adetokunboh Olatunji
- Afshin Ashkan
- Aggarwal Rakesh
- Agrawal Anurag
- Agrawal Sutapa
- Ahmed Muktar Beshir
- Aichour Amani Nidhal
- Aichour Ibtihel
- Aichour Miloud Taki Eddine
- Aiyar Sneha
- Akinyemiju Tomi F.
- Akseer Nadia
- Al Lami Faris Hasan
- Al-Aly Ziyad
- Al-Maskari Fatma
- Al-Raddadi Rajaa
- Alahdab Fares
- Alam Khurshid
- Alam Noore
- Alam Tahiya
- Alasfoor Deena
- Alene Kefyalew Addis
- Ali Raghib
- Alizadeh-Navaei Reza
- Alkaabi Juma M.
- Alkerwi Ala'a
- Alla François
- Allebeck Peter
- Allen Christine
- Almazroa Mohammad Abdulaziz
- Alsharif Ubai
- Alsowaidi Shirina
- Althouse Benjamin M.
- Altirkawi Khalid A.
- Alvis-Guzman Nelson
- Amare Azmeraw T.
- Amini Erfan
- Ammar Walid
- Amoako Yaw Ampem
- Ansha Mustafa Geleto
- Antonio Carl Abelardo T.
- Anwari Palwasha
- Arora Megha
- Artaman Al
- Arthur Avokpaho Euripide Frinel G.
- Aryal Krishna Kumar
- Asgedom Solomon W.
- Atey Tesfay Mehari
- Atnafu Niguse Tadele
- Avila-Burgos Leticia
- Awasthi Ashish
- Awasthi Shally
- Azarpazhooh Mahmoud Reza
- Azzopardi Peter
- Babalola Tesleem Kayode
- Bacha Umar
- Badawi Alaa
- Balakrishnan Kalpana
- Bannick Marlena S.
- Barac Aleksandra
- Barker-Collo Suzanne L.
- Barquera Simon
- Barrero Lope H.
- Basu Sanjay
- Battista Robert
- Battle Katherine E.
- Baune Bernhard T.
- Bazargan-Hejazi Shahrzad
- Beardsley Justin
- Bedi Neeraj
- Bekele Bayu Begashaw
- Bell Michelle L.
- Bennett Derrick A.
- Bennett James R.
- Bensenor Isabela M.
- Benson Jennifer
- Berhane Adugnaw
- Berhe Derbew Fikadu
- Bernabé Eduardo
- Betsu Balem Demtsu
- Beuran Mircea
- Beyene Addisu Shunu
- Bhansali Anil
- Bhatt Samir
- Bhutta Zulfqar A.
- Biadgilign Sibhatu
- Bicer Burcu Kucuk
- Bienhof Kelly
- Bikbov Boris
- Birungi Charles
- Biryukov Stan
- Bisanzio Donal
- Bizuayehu Habtamu Mellie
- Blyth Fiona M.
- Boneya Dube Jara
- Bose Dipan
- Bou-Orm Ibrahim R.
- Bourne Rupert R. A.
- Brainin Michael
- Brayne Carol E. G.
- Brazinova Alexandra
- Breitborde Nicholas J. K.
- Briant Paul S.
- Britton Gabrielle
- Brugha Traolach S.
- Bryane
- Buchbinder Rachelle
- Bulto Lemma Negesa Bulto
- Bumgarner Blair
- Butt Zahid A.
- Bärnighausen Till
- Béjot Yannick
- Cahuana-Hurtado Lucero
- Cameron Ewan
- Campos-Nonato Ismael Ricardo
- Carabin Hélène
- Carpenter David O.
- Carrero Juan Jesus
- Carter Austin
- Carvalho Felix
- Casey Daniel
- Castañeda-Orjuela Carlos A.
- Castle Chris D.
- Catalá-López Ferrán
- Chang Jung-Chen
- Charlson Fiona J.
- Chaturvedi Pankaj
- Chen Honglei
- Chibalabala Mirriam
- Chibueze Chioma Ezinne
- Chisumpa Vesper Hichilombwe
- Chitheer Abdulaal A.
- Chowdhury Rajiv
- Christopher Devasahayam Jesudas
- Ciobanu Liliana G.
- Cirillo Massimo
- Colombara Danny
- Cooper Cyrus
- Cooper Leslie Trumbull
- Cortesi Paolo Angelo
- Cortinovis Monica
- Criqui Michael H.
- Cromwell Elizabeth A.
- Cross Marita
- Crump John A.
- Cárdenas Rosario
- Dadi Abel Fekadu
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- Do Huyen Phuc
- Dokova Klara
- Doku David Teye
- Dorsey E. Ray
- Dos Santos Kadine Priscila Bender
- Driscoll Tim R.
- Dubey Manisha
- Duncan Bruce Bartholow
- Ebel Beth E.
- Echko Michelle
- El-Khatib Ziad Ziad
- Enayati Ahmadali
- Endries Aman Yesuf
- Ermakov Sergey Petrovich
- Erskine Holly E.
- Eshetie Setegn
- Eshrati Babak
- Esteghamati Alireza
- Estep Kara
- Fanuel Fanuel Belayneh Bekele
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- Gemechu Bikila Lencha
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- Javanbakht Mehdi
- Jayaraman Sudha P.
- Jeemon Panniyammakal
- Jensen Paul N.
- Jha Vivekanand
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- John Denny
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- Johnson Sarah Charlotte
- Jonas Jost B.
- Jürisson Mikk
- Kabir Zubair
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- Kahsay Amaha
- Kamal Ritul
- Kar Chittaranjan
- Karam Nadim E.
- Karch André
- Karema Corine Kakizi
- Karimi Seyed M.
- Karimkhani Chante
- Kasaeian Amir
- Kassa Getachew Mullu
- Kassaw Nigussie Assefa
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- Kastor Anshul
- Katikireddi Srinivasa Vittal
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- Keiyoro Peter Njenga
- Kemmer Laura
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- Kesavachandran Chandrasekharan Nair
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- Khalil Ibrahim A.
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- Kumar Pushpendra
- Kyu Hmwe H.
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- Lallukka Tea
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- Lee Paul H.
- Leigh James
- Leshargie Cheru Tesema
- Leung Janni
- Leung Ricky
- Levi Miriam
- Li Yichong
- Li Yongmei
- Liang Xiaofeng
- Liben Misgan Legesse
- Lim Stephen S.
- Linn Shai
- Liu Angela
- Liu Patrick Y.
- Liu Shiwei
- Liu Yang
- Lodha Rakesh
- Logroscino Giancarlo
- Looker Katharine J.
- Lopez Alan D.
- Lorkowski Stefan
- Lotufo Paulo A.
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- Lucas Timothy C. D.
- Lunevicius Raimundas
- Lyons Ronan A.
- Macarayan Erlyn Rachelle King
- Maddison Emilie R.
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- Magdy Abd El Razek Mohammed
- Magis-Rodriguez Carlos
- Mahdavi Mahdi
- Majdan Marek
- Majdzadeh Reza
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- Micha Renata
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- Minnig Shawn
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- Mirrakhimov Erkin M.
- Misganaw Awoke
- Mishra Shiva Raj
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- Mohammed Kedir Endris
- Mohammed Muktar Sano Kedir
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- Montañez Hernandez Julio Cesar
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- Mountjoy-Venning Clif
- Mruts Kalayu Birhane
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- Muller Kate
- Murdoch
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- Negasa Dumessa Edessa
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- Ngunjiri Josephine Wanjiku
- Nguyen Cuong Tat
- Nguyen Grant
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- Nguyen Quyen Le
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- Ranabhat Chhabi Lal
- Rangaswamy Thara
- Rankin Zane
- Rao Paturi Vishnupriya
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- Reiner Robert C.
- Reinig Nikolas
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- Resnikof Serge
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- Seedat Soraya
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- Shaheen Amira
- Shaikh Masood Ali
- Shamsipour Mansour
- Shariful Islam Sheikh Mohammed
- Sharma Jayendra
- Sharma Rajesh
- She Jun
- Shi Peilin
- Shibuya Kenji
- Shields Chloe
- Shiferaw Mekonnen Sisay
- Shigematsu Mika
- Shiri Rahman
- Shirkoohi Reza
- Shirude Shreya
- Shishani Kawkab
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- Siabani Soraya
- Sibai Abla Mehio
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- Silva Diego Augusto Santos
- Silva João Pedro
- Silveira Dayane Gabriele Alves
- Singh Jasvinder A.
- Singh Narinder Pal
- Singh Om Prakash
- Singh Virendra
- Sinha Dhirendra Narain
- Skiadaresi Eirini
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- Slepak Erica Leigh
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- Tesssema Belay
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- Tobollik Myriam
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- Troeger Christopher
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- Venkatesh
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- Violante Francesco S.
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- Vollset Stein Emil
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- Wallin Mitchell T.
- Wang Yuan-Pang
- Weichenthal Scott
- Weiderpass Elisabete
- Weintraub Robert G.
- Weiss Daniel J.
- Werdecker Andrea
- Westerman Ronny
- Whiteford Harvey A.
- Wijeratne Tissa
- Williams Hywel C.
- Wiysonge Charles Shey
- Woldeyes Belete Getahun
- Wolfe Charles D. A.
- Woodbrook Rachel
- Woolf Anthony D.
- Workicho Abdulhalik
- Xavier Denis
- Xu Gelin
- Yadgir Simon
- Yaghoubi Mohsen
- Yakob Bereket
- Yan Lijing L.
- Yano Yuichiro
- Ye Pengpeng
- Yihdego Mahari Gidey
- Yimam Hassen Hamid
- Yip Paul
- Yonemoto Naohiro
- Yoon Seok-Jun
- Yotebieng Marcel
- Younis Mustafa Z.
- Yu Chuanhua
- Zaidi Zoubida
- Zaki Maysaa El Sayed
- Zegeye Elias Asfaw
- Zenebe Zerihun Menlkalew
- Zhang Xueying
- Zheng Yingfeng
- Zhou Maigeng
- Zipkin Ben
- Zodpey Sanjay
- Zoeckler Leo
- Zuhlke Liesl Joanna
- Ärnlöv Johan
- Publication venue
- Publication date
- 01/01/2017
- Field of study
BACKGROUND: Measurement of changes in health across locations is useful to compare and contrast changing epidemiological patterns against health system performance and identify specific needs for resource allocation in research, policy development, and programme decision making. Using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we drew from two widely used summary measures to monitor such changes in population health: disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE). We used these measures to track trends and benchmark progress compared with expected trends on the basis of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI).
METHODS: We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost and years of life lived with disability for each location, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using age-specific death rates and years of life lived with disability per capita. We explored how DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends when compared with the SDI: the geometric mean of income per person, educational attainment in the population older than age 15 years, and total fertility rate.
FINDINGS: The highest globally observed HALE at birth for both women and men was in Singapore, at 75·2 years (95% uncertainty interval 71·9-78·6) for females and 72·0 years (68·8-75·1) for males. The lowest for females was in the Central African Republic (45·6 years [42·0-49·5]) and for males was in Lesotho (41·5 years [39·0-44·0]). From 1990 to 2016, global HALE increased by an average of 6·24 years (5·97-6·48) for both sexes combined. Global HALE increased by 6·04 years (5·74-6·27) for males and 6·49 years (6·08-6·77) for females, whereas HALE at age 65 years increased by 1·78 years (1·61-1·93) for males and 1·96 years (1·69-2·13) for females. Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2016 (-2·3% [-5·9 to 0·9]), with decreases in communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) disease DALYs offset by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). The exemplars, calculated as the five lowest ratios of observed to expected age-standardised DALY rates in 2016, were Nicaragua, Costa Rica, the Maldives, Peru, and Israel. The leading three causes of DALYs globally were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and lower respiratory infections, comprising 16·1% of all DALYs. Total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most CMNN causes decreased from 1990 to 2016. Conversely, the total DALY burden rose for most NCDs; however, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined globally.
INTERPRETATION: At a global level, DALYs and HALE continue to show improvements. At the same time, we observe that many populations are facing growing functional health loss. Rising SDI was associated with increases in cumulative years of life lived with disability and decreases in CMNN DALYs offset by increased NCD DALYs. Relative compression of morbidity highlights the importance of continued health interventions, which has changed in most locations in pace with the gross domestic product per person, education, and family planning. The analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework with which to benchmark location-specific health performance. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform health policies, health system improvement initiatives, targeted prevention efforts, and development assistance for health, including financial and research investments for all countries, regardless of their level of sociodemographic development. The presence of countries that substantially outperform others suggests the need for increased scrutiny for proven examples of best practices, which can help to extend gains, whereas the presence of underperforming countries suggests the need for devotion of extra attention to health systems that need more robust support.
FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- Author
- Abate Degu
- Abay Solomon M
- Abbafati Cristiana
- Abbasi Nooshin
- Abbastabar Hedayat
- Abd-Allah Foad
- Abdel-Rahman Omar
- Abdela Jemal
- Abdelalim Ahmed
- Abdi Alireza
- Abdollahpour Ibrahim
- Abdulkader Rizwan Suliankatchi
- Abebe Nebiyu Dereje
- Abebe Zegeye
- Abejie Ayenew Negesse
- Abera Semaw F
- Abil Olifan Zewdie
- Aboyans Victor
- Abraha Haftom Niguse
- Abrham Aklilu Roba
- Abu-Raddad Laith Jamal
- Abu-Rmeileh Niveen Me
- Abyu Gebre Y
- Accrombessi Manfred Mario Kokou
- Acharya Dilaram
- Acharya Pawan
- Adamu Abdu A
- Adebayo Oladimeji M
- Adedeji Isaac Akinkunmi
- Adedoyin Rufus Adesoji
- Adekanmbi Victor
- Adetokunboh Olatunji O
- Adhena Beyene Meressa
- Adhikari Tara Ballav
- Adib Mina G
- Adou Arsène Kouablan
- Adsuar Jose C
- Afarideh Mohsen
- Afshari Mahdi
- Afshin Ashkan
- Agarwal Gina
- Aghayan Sargis Aghasi
- Agius Dominic
- Agrawal Anurag
- Agrawal Sutapa
- Ahmadi Alireza
- Ahmadi Mehdi
- Ahmadieh Hamid
- Ahmed Muktar Beshir
- Ahmed Sayem
- Akalu Temesgen Yihunie
- Akanda Ali S
- Akbari Mohammad Esmaeil
- Akibu Mohammed
- Akinyemi Rufus Olusola
- Akinyemiju Tomi
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- Al-Eyadhy Ayman
- Al-Maskari Fatma
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- Al-Raddadi Rajaa M
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- Alam Khurshid
- Alam Tahiya
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- Ali Raghib
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- Wiysonge Charles Shey
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- Yadollahpour Ali
- Yahyazadeh Jabbari Seyed Hossein
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- Yip Paul
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- Yisma Engida
- Yonemoto Naohiro
- Yonga Gerald
- Yoon Seok-Jun
- Yotebieng Marcel
- Younis Mustafa Z
- Yousefifard Mahmoud
- Yu Chuanhua
- Zaman Sojib Bin
- Zamani Mohammad
- Zare Zohreh
- Zavala-Arciniega Luis
- Zegeye Desalegn Tegabu
- Zegeye Elias Asfaw
- Zeleke Ayalew Jejaw
- Zendehdel Kazem
- Zerfu Taddese Alemu
- Zhang Anthony Lin
- Zhang Xueying
- Zhou Maigeng
- Zhu Jun
- Zimsen Stephanie R M
- Zodpey Sanjay
- Zoeckler Leo
- Zucker Inbar
- Zuhlke Liesel Joanna J
- Ärnlöv Johan
- Çavlin Alanur
- Publication venue
- 'Elsevier BV'
- Publication date
- 01/01/2018
- Field of study
Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2\ub75th percentile and 100 as the 97\ub75th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59\ub74 (IQR 35\ub74–67\ub73), ranging from a low of 11\ub76 (95% uncertainty interval 9\ub76–14\ub70) to a high of 84\ub79 (83\ub71–86\ub77). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030
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