Escaping Nash inflation

Mean dynamics govern convergence to rational expectations equilibria of self-referential systems under least squares learning. We highlight escape dynamics that propel away from a rational expectations equilibrium under fixed-gain recursive learning schemes. These learning schemes discount past observations. In a model with a unique self-confirming equilibrium, we show that the destination of the escape dynamics is an outcome associated with government discovery of too strong a version of the natural rate hypothesis. That destination is not sustainable as a self-confirming equilibrium but is visited recurrently. The escape route dynamics cause recurrent outcomes close to the Ramsey (commitment) inflation rate in a model with an adaptive government. JEL Classification: E3, E52, E58

THE IMPACT OF THE EXPORT ENHANCEMENT PROGRAM ON INTERNATIONAL FEED BARLEY MARKETS

A "hybrid" spatial price equilibrium model is developed to evaluate differences in trade flows and equilibrium prices for feed and malting barley exports from the U.S., Canada, Australia, and European Union, caused by the U.S. Export Enhancement Program (EEP). The analysis incorporates the relationships among several policy instruments.Demand and Price Analysis, International Relations/Trade,

Heat as a proxy to image dynamic processes with 4D electrical resistivity tomography

Since salt cannot always be used as a geophysical tracer (because it may pollute the aquifer with the mass that is necessary to induce a geophysical contrast), and since in many contaminated aquifer salts (e.g., chloride) already constitute the main contaminants, another geophysical tracer is needed to force a contrast in the subsurface that can be detected from surface geophysical measurements. In this context, we used heat as a proxy to image and monitor groundwater flow and solute transport in a shallow alluvial aquifer (< 10 m deep) with the help of electrical resistivity tomography (ERT). The goal of our study is to demonstrate the feasibility of such methodology in the context of the validation of the efficiency of a hydraulic barrier that confines a chloride contamination to its source. To do so, we combined a heat tracer push/pull test with time-lapse 3D ERT and classical hydrogeological measurements in wells and piezometers. Our results show that heat can be an excellent salt substitution tracer for geophysical monitoring studies, both qualitatively and semi-quantitatively. Our methodology, based on 3D surface ERT, allows to visually prove that a hydraulic barrier works efficiently and could be used as an assessment of such installations

Characterizing Pareto Optima: Sequential Utilitarian Welfare Maximization

We characterize Pareto optimality via sequential utilitarian welfare maximization: a utility vector u is Pareto optimal if and only if there exists a finite sequence of nonnegative (and eventually positive) welfare weights such that $u$ maximizes utilitarian welfare with each successive welfare weights among the previous set of maximizers. The characterization can be further related to maximization of a piecewise-linear concave social welfare function and sequential bargaining among agents a la generalized Nash bargaining. We provide conditions enabling simpler utilitarian characterizations and a version of the second welfar

Impulse-Based Dynamic Strength Index: Considering Time-Dependent Force Expression

Haischer, MH, Krzyszkowski, J, Roche, S, and Kipp, K. Impulse-based dynamic strength index: considering time-dependent force expression. J Strength Cond Res 35(5): 1177–1181, 2021—The dynamic strength index (DSI) is a useful tool to assess an athlete\u27s capacity to effectively use maximum strength during dynamic tasks. Although DSI is traditionally calculated based on peak forces, the ability to express force over time (i.e., impulse) is a better predictor of dynamic performance. The purpose of this study was to investigate the association between DSI calculated based on peak force (fDSI) and impulse (iDSI). Nineteen female collegiate lacrosse players performed countermovement jumps (CMJs) and isometric midthigh pulls (IMTPs). Peak force and impulse were extracted from CMJ and IMTP force-time data. Countermovement jump impulse was calculated by integrating force over the concentric movement time, whereas IMTP impulse was calculated by integrating force over the CMJ-matched movement time. Ratios between CMJ and IMTP peak force and impulse were used to calculate fDSI and iDSI, respectively. A moderate positive correlation existed between iDSI and fDSI (ρ = 0.644 [0.283–0.840], p = 0.003). Based on thresholds established in the literature, the 2 indices suggest conflicting training recommendations for 37% of athletes. Because impulse is a better predictor of dynamic performance, iDSI may represent a more valid method for assessing an athlete\u27s capacity to effectively use maximum strength during dynamic tasks. Practitioners and researchers may want to consider augmenting current training and research practices with an impulse-based DSI

On the interaction of a thin, supersonic shell with a molecular cloud

Molecular clouds (MCs) are stellar nurseries, however, formation of stars within MCs depends on the ambient physical conditions. MCs, over a free-fall time are exposed to numerous dynamical phenomena, of which, the interaction with a thin, dense shell of gas is but one. Below we present results from self-gravitating, 3-D smoothed particle hydrodynamics ({\small SPH}) simulations of the problem; seven realisations of the problem have been performed by varying the precollision density within the cloud, the nature of the post-collision shock, and the spatial resolution in the computational domain. Irrespective of the type of shock, a complex network of dense filaments, seeded by numerical noise, readily appears in the shocked cloud. Segregation of the dense and rarefied gas phases also manifests itself in a bimodal distribution of gas density. We demonstrate that the power-spectrum for rarefied gas is Kolomogorov like, while that for the denser gas is considerably steeper. As a corollary to the main problem, we also look into the possibly degenerative effect of the {\small SPH} artificial viscosity on the impact of the incident shell. It is observed that stronger viscosity leads to greater post-shock dissipation, that strongly decelerates the incident shock-front and promotes formation of contiguous structure, albeit on a much longer timescale. We conclude that too much viscosity is likely to enhance the proclivity towards gravitational boundedness of structure, leading to unphysical fragmentation.On the other hand, insufficient resolution appears to suppress fragmentation. Convergence of results is tested at both extremes, first by repeating the test case with more than a million particles and then with only half the number of particles in the original test case.Comment: 15 pages, 15 figures, and 1 Table; To appear in Monthly Notices to the RA

Mixed-Morphology Supernova Remnants in X-rays: Isothermal Plasma in HB21 and Probable Oxygen-Rich Ejecta in CTB 1

(Abridged) We present an analysis of X-ray observations made of the Galactic supernova remnants (SNRs) HB21 (G89.0+4.7) and CTB 1 (G116.9+0.2), two well-known mixed-morphology (MM) SNRs. We find a marked contrast between the X-ray properties of these SNRs: for HB21, the extracted ASCA spectra of the northwest and southeast regions of the X-ray emitting plasma can be fit with a single thermal model with marginally enhanced silicon and sulfur abundances. For both of these regions, the derived column density and temperature are N_H~0.3x10^22 cm^-2 and kT~0.7 keV, respectively. No significant spatial differences in temperature or elemental abundances between the two regions are detected and the X-ray-emitting plasma in both regions is close to ionization equilibrium. Our Chandra spectral analysis of CTB 1 reveals that this source is likely an oxygen-rich SNR with enhanced abundances of oxygen and neon. The extracted ASCA spectra for the southwestern and northeastern regions of CTB 1 cannot be fit with a single thermal component. Based on our fits to these spectra, we derive a column density N_H~0.6x10^22 cm^-2 and a temperature for the soft thermal component of kT_soft~0.28 keV. The hard emission from the southwest may be modeled with either a thermal component (kT_hard~3 keV) or by a power law component (Gamma~2-3) while the hard emission from the northeast may be modeled with a power law component (Gamma~1.4). We have also extracted ASCA GIS spectra of the discrete X-ray source 1WGA J0001.4+6229 which is seen in projection toward CTB 1. These spectra are best fit using a power-law model with a photon index Gamma=2.2^{+0.5}_{-1.2} which is typical for featureless power-law continua produced by rotation-powered pulsars. This source may be a neutron star associated with CTB 1.Comment: 46 pages, 16 figures, accepted for publication in the Astronomical Journa

Cholestenoic acid, an endogenous cholesterol metabolite, is a potent γ-secretase modulator.

BackgroundAmyloid-β (Aβ) 42 has been implicated as the initiating molecule in the pathogenesis of Alzheimer's disease (AD); thus, therapeutic strategies that target Aβ42 are of great interest. γ-Secretase modulators (GSMs) are small molecules that selectively decrease Aβ42. We have previously reported that many acidic steroids are GSMs with potencies ranging in the low to mid micromolar concentration with 5β-cholanic acid being the most potent steroid identified GSM with half maximal effective concentration (EC50) of 5.7 μM.ResultsWe find that the endogenous cholesterol metabolite, 3β-hydroxy-5-cholestenoic acid (CA), is a steroid GSM with enhanced potency (EC50 of 250 nM) relative to 5β-cholanic acid. CA i) is found in human plasma at ~100-300 nM concentrations ii) has the typical acidic GSM signature of decreasing Aβ42 and increasing Aβ38 levels iii) is active in in vitro γ-secretase assay iv) is made in the brain. To test if CA acts as an endogenous GSM, we used Cyp27a1 knockout (Cyp27a1-/-) and Cyp7b1 knockout (Cyp7b1-/-) mice to investigate if manipulation of cholesterol metabolism pathways relevant to CA formation would affect brain Aβ42 levels. Our data show that Cyp27a1-/- had increased brain Aβ42, whereas Cyp7b1-/- mice had decreased brain Aβ42 levels; however, peripheral dosing of up to 100 mg/kg CA did not affect brain Aβ levels. Structure-activity relationship (SAR) studies with multiple known and novel CA analogs studies failed to reveal CA analogs with increased potency.ConclusionThese data suggest that CA may act as an endogenous GSM within the brain. Although it is conceptually attractive to try and increase the levels of CA in the brain for prevention of AD, our data suggest that this will not be easily accomplished