Using dengue epidemics and local weather in Bali, Indonesia to predict imported dengue in Australia.

BACKGROUND: Although the association between dengue in Bali, Indonesia, and imported dengue in Australia has been widely asserted, no study has quantified this association so far. METHODS: Monthly data on dengue and climatic factors over the past decade for Bali and Jakarta as well as monthly data on imported dengue in Australia underwent a three-stage analysis. Stage I: a quasi-Poisson regression with distributed lag non-linear model was used to assess the associations of climatic factors with dengue in Bali. Stage II: a generalized additive model was used to quantify the association of dengue in Bali with imported dengue in Australia with and without including the number of travelers in log scale as an offset. Stage III: the associations of mean temperature and rainfall (two climatic factors identified in stage I) in Bali with imported dengue in Australia were examined using stage I approach. RESULTS: The number of dengue cases in Bali increased with increasing mean temperature, and, up to a certain level, it also increased with increasing rainfall but dropped off for high levels of rainfall. Above a monthly incidence of 1.05 cases per 100,000, dengue in Bali was almost linearly associated with imported dengue in Australia at a lag of one month. Mean temperature (relative risk (RR) per 0.5 °C increase: 2.95, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.87, 4.66) and rainfall (RR per 7.5 mm increase: 3.42, 95% CI: 1.07, 10.92) in Bali were significantly associated with imported dengue in Australia at a lag of four months. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that climatic factors (i.e., mean temperature and rainfall) known to be conducive of dengue transmission in Bali can provide an early warning with 4-month lead time for Australia in order to mitigate future outbreaks of local dengue in Australia. This study also provides a template and framework for future surveillance of travel-related infectious diseases globally

Evolutionary winners are ecological losers among oceanic island plants

Aim Adaptive radiation, in which successful lineages proliferate by exploiting untapped niche space, provides a popular but potentially misleading characterization of evolution on oceanic islands. Here we analyse the respective roles of members of in situ diversified vs. non-diversified lineages in shaping the main ecosystems of an archipelago to explore the relationship between evolutionary and ecological ‘success’. Location Canary Islands. Taxon Vascular plants. Methods We quantified the abundance/rarity of the native flora according to the geographical range (number of islands where present and geographical extent of the range), habitat breadth (climatic niche) and local abundance (cover) using species distribution data based on 500 × 500 m grid cells and 2000 vegetation inventories located all over the archipelago. Results Species of diversified lineages have significantly smaller geographic ranges, narrower climatic niches and lower local abundances than those of non-diversified lineages. Species rarity increased with the degree of diversification. The diversified Canarian flora is mainly comprised by shrubs. At both archipelagic and island level, the four core ecosystems (Euphorbia scrub, thermophilous woodlands, laurel forest and pine forest) were dominated by non-diversified lineages species, with diversified lineages species providing <25% cover. Species of diversified lineages, although constituting 54% of the archipelagic native flora, were only abundant in two rare ecosystems: high mountain scrub and rock communities. Main conclusions Radiated species, endemic products of in situ speciation, are mostly rare in all three rarity axes and typically do not play an important role in structuring plant communities on the Canaries. The vegetation of the major ecosystem types is dominated by plants representing non-diversified lineages (species that derive from immigration and accumulation), while species of evolutionarily successful lineages are abundant only in marginal habitats and could, therefore, be considered ecological losers. Within this particular oceanic archipelago, and we posit within at least some others, evolutionary success in plants is accomplished predominantly at the margins.publishedVersio

Priorities for synthesis research in ecology and environmental science

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS We thank the National Science Foundation grant #1940692 for financial support for this workshop, and the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (NCEAS) and its staff for logistical support.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Priorities for synthesis research in ecology and environmental science

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS We thank the National Science Foundation grant #1940692 for financial support for this workshop, and the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (NCEAS) and its staff for logistical support.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Transferring and implementing the general dynamic model of oceanic island biogeography at the scale of island fragments: the roles of geological age and topography in plant diversification in the Canaries

Aim The general dynamic model (GDM) of oceanic island biogeography integrates rates of immigration, speciation and extinction in relation to a humped trajectory of island area, species carrying capacity and topographic complexity through time, based on a simplified island ontogeny. In practice, many islands have more complex ontogenies, featuring surfaces of varying age. Here, we extend the GDM to apply at a local scale within islands, and test the predictions analytically within individual islands. Location El Hierro, La Palma and Tenerife (Canary Islands). Methods Following the GDM logic, we derive predictions for the distributions and richness of single island endemics (SIEs) across island landscapes of different age. We test these predictions by means of generalized linear models and binominal tests using gridded species occurrence data for vascular plant SIE species and a set of climatic, topographic and terrain age variables. We also examined phylogenetic divergence times for a subset of endemic lineages. Results Geological age, in interaction with slope, and topographic variables, best explained SIE richness at the landscape scale. About 70% of SIEs had ranges strongly biased to, or largely restricted to old terrain. Available phylogenetic divergence times of SIEs of radiated plant lineages suggested an origin on the older parts of the islands. Metrics of anthropogenic disturbance and habitat availability were unrelated to the observed SIE pattern. Main conclusions Our findings support the hypothesis that SIEs have evolved and accumulated on older and topographically complex terrain, while colonization processes predominate on the youngest parts. These results imply that evolutionary processes shape species distributions at the landscape scale within islands. This opens the perspective of extending the GDM framework to understand processes at a local scale within individual islands

Priorities for synthesis research in ecology and environmental science

Synthesis research in ecology and environmental science improves understanding, advances theory, identifies research priorities, and supports management strategies by linking data, ideas, and tools. Accelerating environmental challenges increases the need to focus synthesis science on the most pressing questions. To leverage input from the broader research community, we convened a virtual workshop with participants from many countries and disciplines to examine how and where synthesis can address key questions and themes in ecology and environmental science in the coming decade. Seven priority research topics emerged: (1) diversity, equity, inclusion, and justice (DEIJ), (2) human and natural systems, (3) actionable and use-inspired science, (4) scale, (5) generality, (6) complexity and resilience, and (7) predictability. Additionally, two issues regarding the general practice of synthesis emerged: the need for increased participant diversity and inclusive research practices; and increased and improved data flow, access, and skill-building. These topics and practices provide a strategic vision for future synthesis in ecology and environmental science

Structure–Property Relationships in Photoluminescent Bismuth Halide Organic Hybrid Materials

International audienceSeven novel bismuth(III)-halide phases, Bi2Cl6(terpy)2·0.5(H2O) (1), Bi2Cl4(terpy)2(k2-TC)2(2) (TC = 2-thiophene monocarboxylate), BiCl(terpy)(k2-TC)2 (3A-Cl), BiBr(terpy)(k2-TC)2 (3A-Br), BiCl(terpy)(k2-TC)2 (3B-Cl), [BiCl(terpy)(k2-TC)2][Bi(terpy)(k2-TC)3]·0.55(TCA) (4), [BiBr3(terpy)(MeOH)] (5), and [BiBr2(terpy)(k2-TC)][BiBr1.16(terpy)(k2-TC)1.84] (6), were prepared under mild synthetic conditions from methanolic/aqueous solutions containing BiX3 (X = Cl, Br) and 2,2′:6′,2″-terpyridine (terpy) and/or 2-thiophene monocarboxylic acid (TCA). A heterometallic series, 3A-Bi1–xEuxCl, with the general formula Bi1–xEuxCl(terpy)(k2-TC)2 (x = 0.001, 0.005, 0.01, 0.05) was also prepared through trace Eu doping of the 3A-Cl phase. The structures were determined through single-crystal X-ray diffraction and are built from a range of molecular units including monomeric and dimeric complexes. The solid-state photoluminescent properties of the compounds were examined through steady-state and time-resolved methods. While the homometallic phases exhibited broad green to yellow emission, the heterometallic phases displayed yellow, orange, and red emission that can be attributed to the simultaneous ligand/Bi-halide and Eu centered emissions. Photoluminescent color tuning was achieved by controlling the relative intensities of these concurrent emissions through compositional modifications including the Eu doping percentage. Notably, all emissive homo- and heterometallic phases exhibited rare visible excitation pathways that based on theoretical quantum mechanical calculations are attributed to halide-metal to ligand charge transfer (XMLCT). Through a combined experimental and computational approach, fundamental insight into the structure–property relationships within these Bi halide organic hybrid materials is provided

Data from: Is biodiversity energy-limited or unbounded? A test in fossil and modern bivalves

The quantity of biomass in an ecosystem is constrained by energy availability. It is less clear, however, how energy availability constrains taxonomic and functional diversity. Competing models suggest biodiversity is either resource-limited or far from any bound. We test the hypothesis that functional diversity in marine bivalve communities is constrained by energy availability, measured as particulate organic carbon (POC) flux, in the modern oceans. We find that POC flux predicts the relative prevalence of ecological modes in both the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. Moreover, the associations of ecological modes with POC fluxes are similar between the Atlantic and Pacific despite being based on independent sets of species, indicating a direct causal relationship. We then use the relationship between POC flux and the prevalence of functional groups in the modern to test the hypothesis that the trend of increasing functional diversity in bivalves across the past 500 million years has occurred in response to increased POC flux. We find no evidence that the earliest appearing modes of life are preferentially associated with low POC environments or that the mean POC flux experienced by marine bivalves has increased across geological time. To reconcile the close association between ecological mode and POC flux in the modern oceans with the lack of evidence for increasing POC fluxes across time, we propose that POC flux has not increased substantially over time but, rather, the increase in bivalve functional diversity enabled bivalves to become more abundant, to occupy a broader range of environments, and to capture a greater fraction of the total POC flux. The results here suggest at geographic scale of oceans and through geologic time bivalve diversity was not bounded by food availability