Bayesian inverse problems with Gaussian priors

The posterior distribution in a nonparametric inverse problem is shown to contract to the true parameter at a rate that depends on the smoothness of the parameter, and the smoothness and scale of the prior. Correct combinations of these characteristics lead to the minimax rate. The frequentist coverage of credible sets is shown to depend on the combination of prior and true parameter, with smoother priors leading to zero coverage and rougher priors to conservative coverage. In the latter case credible sets are of the correct order of magnitude. The results are numerically illustrated by the problem of recovering a function from observation of a noisy version of its primitive.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/11-AOS920 the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Bayesian recovery of the initial condition for the heat equation

We study a Bayesian approach to recovering the initial condition for the heat equation from noisy observations of the solution at a later time. We consider a class of prior distributions indexed by a parameter quantifying "smoothness" and show that the corresponding posterior distributions contract around the true parameter at a rate that depends on the smoothness of the true initial condition and the smoothness and scale of the prior. Correct combinations of these characteristics lead to the optimal minimax rate. One type of priors leads to a rate-adaptive Bayesian procedure. The frequentist coverage of credible sets is shown to depend on the combination of the prior and true parameter as well, with smoother priors leading to zero coverage and rougher priors to (extremely) conservative results. In the latter case credible sets are much larger than frequentist confidence sets, in that the ratio of diameters diverges to infinity. The results are numerically illustrated by a simulated data example.Comment: 17 pages, 4 figures. Published in Comm. Statist. Theory Methods. This version differs from the original in pagination and typographic detail. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1103.269

Injury rates and injury risk factors among federal bureau of investigation new agent trainees

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>A one-year prospective examination of injury rates and injury risk factors was conducted in Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) new agent training.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Injury incidents were obtained from medical records and injury compensation forms. Potential injury risk factors were acquired from a lifestyle questionnaire and existing data at the FBI Academy.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A total of 426 men and 105 women participated in the project. Thirty-five percent of men and 42% of women experienced one or more injuries during training. The injury incidence rate was 2.5 and 3.2 injuries/1,000 person-days for men and women, respectively (risk ratio (women/men) = 1.3, 95% confidence interval = 0.9-1.7). The activities most commonly associated with injuries (% of total) were defensive tactics training (58%), physical fitness training (20%), physical fitness testing (5%), and firearms training (3%). Among the men, higher injury risk was associated with older age, slower 300-meter sprint time, slower 1.5-mile run time, lower total points on the physical fitness test (PFT), lower self-rated physical activity, lower frequency of aerobic exercise, a prior upper or lower limb injury, and prior foot or knee pain that limited activity. Among the women higher injury risk was associated with slower 300-meter sprint time, slower 1.5-mile run time, lower total points on the PFT, and prior back pain that limited activity.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The results of this investigation supported those of a previous retrospective investigation emphasizing that lower fitness and self-reported pain limiting activity were associated with higher injury risk among FBI new agents.</p

Unsafe Grammars and Panic Automata

International audienceWe show that the problem of checking if an infinite tree gen- erated by a higher-order grammar of level 2 (hyperalgebraic) satisfies a given µ-calculus formula (or, equivalently, if it is accepted by an al- ternating parity automaton) is decidable, actually 2-Exptime-complete. Consequently, the monadic second-order theory of any hyperalgebraic tree is decidable, so that the safety restriction can be removed from our previous decidability result. The last result has been independently obtained by Aehlig, de Miranda and Ong. Our proof goes via a char- acterization of possibly unsafe second-order grammars by a new variant of higher-order pushdown automata, which we call panic automata. In addition to the standard pop 1 and pop 2 operations, these automata have an option of a destructive move called panic . The model-checking prob- lem is then reduced to the problem of deciding the winner in a parity game over a suitable 2nd order pushdown system

Milestones in the Observations of Cosmic Magnetic Fields

Magnetic fields are observed everywhere in the universe. In this review, we concentrate on the observational aspects of the magnetic fields of Galactic and extragalactic objects. Readers can follow the milestones in the observations of cosmic magnetic fields obtained from the most important tracers of magnetic fields, namely, the star-light polarization, the Zeeman effect, the rotation measures (RMs, hereafter) of extragalactic radio sources, the pulsar RMs, radio polarization observations, as well as the newly implemented sub-mm and mm polarization capabilities. (Another long paragraph is omitted due to the limited space here)Comment: Invited Review (ChJA&A); 32 pages. Sorry if your significant contributions in this area were not mentioned. Published pdf & ps files (with high quality figures) now availble at http://www.chjaa.org/2002_2_4.ht

Synthetic photometry for carbon-rich giants II. The effects of pulsation and circumstellar dust

By using self-consistent dynamic model atmospheres which simulate pulsation-enhanced dust-driven winds of AGB stars we studied in detail the influence of (i) pulsations of the stellar interiors, and (ii) the development of dusty stellar winds on the spectral appearance of long period variables with carbon-rich atmospheric chemistry. While the pulsations lead to large-amplitude photometric variability, the dusty envelopes cause pronounced circumstellar reddening. Based on one selected dynamical model which is representative of C-type Mira variables with intermediate mass loss rates, we calculated synthetic spectra and photometry for standard broad-band filters from the visual to the near-infrared. Our modelling allows to investigate in detail the substantial effect of circumstellar dust on the resultant photometry. The pronounced absorption of amorphous carbon dust grains leads to colour indices which are significantly redder than the corresponding ones based on hydrostatic dust-free models. Only if we account for this circumstellar reddening we get synthetic colours that are comparable to observations of evolved AGB stars. The photometric variations of the dynamical model were compared to observed lightcurves of the C-type Mira RU_Vir which appears to be quite similar to the model. We found good agreement concerning the principal behaviour of the BVRIJHKL lightcurves and also quantitatively fitting details. The analysed model is able to reproduce the variations of RU_Vir and other Miras in (J-H) vs. (H-K) diagrams throughout the light cycle. Contrasting the model photometry with observational data for a variety of galactic C-rich giants in such colour-colour diagrams proved that the chosen atmospheric model fits well into a sequence of objects with increasing mass loss rates, i.e., redder colour indices.Comment: Accepted for publication in A&

Measurement of the Depth of Maximum of Extensive Air Showers above 10^18 eV

We describe the measurement of the depth of maximum, Xmax, of the longitudinal development of air showers induced by cosmic rays. Almost four thousand events above 10^18 eV observed by the fluorescence detector of the Pierre Auger Observatory in coincidence with at least one surface detector station are selected for the analysis. The average shower maximum was found to evolve with energy at a rate of (106 +35/-21) g/cm^2/decade below 10^(18.24 +/- 0.05) eV and (24 +/- 3) g/cm^2/decade above this energy. The measured shower-to-shower fluctuations decrease from about 55 to 26 g/cm^2. The interpretation of these results in terms of the cosmic ray mass composition is briefly discussed.Comment: Accepted for publication by PR

Operations of and Future Plans for the Pierre Auger Observatory

Technical reports on operations and features of the Pierre Auger Observatory, including ongoing and planned enhancements and the status of the future northern hemisphere portion of the Observatory. Contributions to the 31st International Cosmic Ray Conference, Lodz, Poland, July 2009.Comment: Contributions to the 31st ICRC, Lodz, Poland, July 200