The Retail FX Trader: Random Trading and the Negative Sum Game

With the internet boom of early 2000 making access to trading the Foreign Exchange (FX) market far simpler for members of the general public, the growth of 'retail' FX trading continues, with daily transaction volumes as high as $200 billion. Potential new entrants to the retail FX trading world may come from the recent UK pension deregulations, further increasing the volumes. The attraction of FX trading is that it offers high returns and whilst it has been understood that it is high-risk in nature, the rewards are seen as being commensurately high for the 'skilled and knowledgeable' trader who has an edge over other market participants. This paper analyses a number of independent sources of data and previous research, to examine the profitability of the Retail FX trader and compares the results with that of a simulated random trading models. This paper finds evidence to suggest that whilst approximately 20% of traders can expect to end up with a profitable account, around 40% might expect their account to be subject to a margin call. This paper finds a strong correlation between the overall profitability of traders and impact of the cost of the bid-ask spread, whilst finding little if any evidence that retail FX traders, when viewed as a group, are achieving results better than that from random trading

XMM-Newton observation of the long-period polar V1309 Ori: The case for pure blobby accretion

Using XMM-Newton we have obtained the first X-ray observation covering a complete orbit of the longest period polar, V1309 Ori. The X-ray light curve is dominated by a short, bright phase interval with EPIC pn count rates reaching up to 15 cts/sec per 30 sec resolution bin. The bright phase emission is well described by a single blackbody component with kT_bb = (45 +- 3) eV. The absence of a bremsstrahlung component at photon energies above 1 keV yields a flux ratio F_bb/F_br > 6700. This represents the most extreme case of a soft X-ray excess yet observed in an AM Herculis star. The bright, soft X-ray emission is subdivided into a series of individual flare events supporting the hypothesis that the soft X-ray excess in V1309 is caused by accretion of dense blobs. In addition to the bright phase emission, a faint, hard X-ray component is visible throughout the binary orbit with an almost constant count rate of 0.01 cts/sec. Spectral modelling indicates that this emission originates from a complex multi-temperature plasma. At least three components of an optically thin plasma with temperatures kT= 0.065, 0.7, and 2.9 keV are required to fit the observed flux distribution. The faint phase emission is occulted during the optical eclipse. Eclipse ingress lasts about 15--20 min and is substantially prolonged beyond nominal ingress of the white dwarf. This and the comparatively low plasma temperature provide strong evidence that the faint-phase emission is not thermal bremsstrahlung from a post-shock accretion column above the white dwarf. A large fraction of the softer faint-phase emission could be explained by scattering of photons from the blackbody component in the infalling material above the accretion region. The remaining hard X-ray flux could be produced in the coupling region, so far unseen in other polars.Comment: 10 pages, 5 figures, A&A publishe

Numerical Simulations of the Onset and Stability of Dynamical Mass Transfer in Binaries

Hydrodynamical simulations of semi-detached, polytropic binary stars are presented in an effort to study the onset and stability of dynamical mass transfer events. Initial, synchronously rotating equilibrium models are constructed using a self-consistent-field technique and then evolved with an Eulerian hydrodynamics code in a fully self-consistent manner. We describe code improvements introduced over the past few years that permit us to follow dynamical mass-transfer events through more than 30 orbits. Mass-transfer evolutions are presented for two different initial configurations: A dynamically unstable binary with initial mass ratio (donor/accretor) $q_0 = 1.3$ that leads to a complete merger in $\sim 10$ orbits; and a double-degenerate binary with initial mass ratio $q_0 = 0.5$ that, after some initial unstable growth of mass transfer, tends to separate as the mass-transfer rate levels off.Comment: 47 pages, 11 figures, submitted to the Astrophysical Journal. See http://www.phys.lsu.edu/faculty/tohline/astroph/dmtf05 for high resolution figures and mpeg animation

Enhanced activity of massive black holes by stellar capture assisted by a self-gravitating accretion disc

We study the probability of close encounters between stars from a nuclear cluster and a massive black hole. The gravitational field of the system is dominated by the black hole in its sphere of influence. It is further modified by the cluster mean field (a spherical term) and a gaseous disc/torus (an axially symmetric term) causing a secular evolution of stellar orbits via Kozai oscillations. Intermittent phases of large eccentricity increase the chance that stars become damaged inside the tidal radius of the central hole. Such events can produce debris and lead to recurring episodes of enhanced accretion activity. We introduce an effective loss cone and associate it with tidal disruptions during the high-eccentricity phases of the Kozai cycle. By numerical integration of the trajectories forming the boundary of the loss cone we determine its shape and volume. We also include the effect of relativistic advance of pericentre. The potential of the disc has the efffect of enlarging the loss cone and, therefore, the predicted number of tidally disrupted stars should grow by factor of ~10^2. On the other hand, the effect of the cluster mean potential together with the relativistic pericentre advance act against the eccentricity oscillations. In the end we expect the tidal disruption events to be approximately ten times more frequent in comparison with the model in which the three effects -- the cluster mean field, the relativistic pericentre advance, and the Kozai mechanism -- are all ignored. The competition of different influences suppresses the predicted star disruption rate as the black hole mass increases. Hence, the process under consideration is more important for intermediate-mass black holes, M_bh~10^4M_s.Comment: 10 pages, 5 figures; Astronomy & Astrophysics accepte

Region of magnetic dominance near a rotating black hole

This is a brief contribution in which a simplified criterion of the relevance of the test-particle approximation describing motion of material near a magnetized black hole is discussed. Application to processes of the dissipative collimation of astronomical jets (as proposed by de Felice and Curir, 1992) is mentioned.Comment: 11 pages, to appear in General Relativity and Gravitation, also available (with additional illustrations) at http://otokar.troja.mff.cuni.cz/user/karas/au_www/karas/papers.ht

X-ray spectroscopy and photometry of the long-period polar AI Tri with XMM-Newton

Context. The energy balance of cataclysmic variables with strong magnetic fields is a central subject in understanding accretion processes on magnetic white dwarfs. With XMM-Newton, we perform a spectroscopic and photometric study of soft X-ray selected polars during their high states of accretion. Aims. On the basis of X-ray and optical observations of the magnetic cataclysmic variable AI Tri, we derive the properties of the spectral components, their flux contributions, and the physical structure of the accretion region in soft polars. Methods. We use multi-temperature approaches in our xspec modeling of the spectra to describe the physical conditions and the structures of the post-shock accretion flow and the accretion spot on the white-dwarf surface. In addition, we investigate the accretion geometry of the system by a timing analysis of the photometric data. Results. Flaring soft X-ray emission from the heated surface of the white dwarf dominates the X-ray flux during roughly 70% of the binary cycle. This component deviates from a single black body and can be described by a superimposition of mildly absorbed black bodies with a Gaussian temperature distribution. In addition, weaker hard X-ray emission is visible nearly all the time. The spectrum from the cooling post-shock accretion flow is most closely fitted by a combination of thermal plasma mekal models with temperature profiles adapted from prior stationary two-fluid hydrodynamic calculations. The soft X-ray light curves show a dip during the bright phase, which can be interpreted as self-absorption in the accretion stream. Phase-resolved spectral modeling supports the picture of one-pole accretion and self-eclipse. One of the optical light curves corresponds to an irregular mode of accretion. During a short XMM-Newton observation at the same epoch, the X-ray emission of the system is clearly dominated by the soft component.Comment: A&A, in press; 11 pages, 9 figures, 3 table

Analyzing collaborative learning processes automatically

In this article we describe the emerging area of text classification research focused on the problem of collaborative learning process analysis both from a broad perspective and more specifically in terms of a publicly available tool set called TagHelper tools. Analyzing the variety of pedagogically valuable facets of learners’ interactions is a time consuming and effortful process. Improving automated analyses of such highly valued processes of collaborative learning by adapting and applying recent text classification technologies would make it a less arduous task to obtain insights from corpus data. This endeavor also holds the potential for enabling substantially improved on-line instruction both by providing teachers and facilitators with reports about the groups they are moderating and by triggering context sensitive collaborative learning support on an as-needed basis. In this article, we report on an interdisciplinary research project, which has been investigating the effectiveness of applying text classification technology to a large CSCL corpus that has been analyzed by human coders using a theory-based multidimensional coding scheme. We report promising results and include an in-depth discussion of important issues such as reliability, validity, and efficiency that should be considered when deciding on the appropriateness of adopting a new technology such as TagHelper tools. One major technical contribution of this work is a demonstration that an important piece of the work towards making text classification technology effective for this purpose is designing and building linguistic pattern detectors, otherwise known as features, that can be extracted reliably from texts and that have high predictive power for the categories of discourse actions that the CSCL community is interested in

Global Models of Runaway Accretion in White Dwarf Debris Disks

A growing sample of white dwarfs (WDs) with metal-enriched atmospheres are accompanied by excess infrared emission, indicating that they are encircled by a compact dusty disk of solid debris. Such `WD debris disks' are thought to originate from the tidal disruption of asteroids or other minor bodies, but the precise mechanism(s) responsible for transporting matter to the WD surface remains unclear, especially in those systems with the highest inferred metal accretion rates dM_Z/dt ~ 1e8-1e10 g/s. Here we present global time-dependent calculations of the coupled evolution of the gaseous and solid components of WD debris disks. Solids transported inwards (initially due to PR drag) sublimate at tens of WD radii, producing a source of gas that accretes onto the WD surface and viscously spreads outwards in radius, where it overlaps with the solid disk. If the aerodynamic coupling between the solids and gaseous disks is sufficiently strong (and/or the gas viscosity sufficiently weak), then gas builds up near the sublimation radius faster than it can viscously spread away. Since the rate of drag-induced solid accretion increases with gas density, this results in a runaway accretion process, during which the WD accretion rate reaches values orders of magnitude higher than can be achieved by PR drag alone. We explore the evolution of WD debris disks across a wide range of physical conditions and calculate the predicted distribution of observed accretion rates dM_Z/dt, finding reasonable agreement with the current sample. Although the conditions necessary for runaway accretion are at best marginally satisfied given the minimal level of aerodynamic drag between circular gaseous and solid disks, the presence of other stronger forms of solid-gas coupling---such as would result if the gaseous disk is only mildly eccentric---substantially increase the likelihood of runaway accretion.Comment: 23 pages, 20 figures, submitted to MNRA

Episodic mass loss in binary evolution to the Wolf-Rayet phase: Keck and HST proper motions of RY Scuti's nebula

Binary mass transfer via Roche-lobe overflow (RLOF) is a key channel for producing stripped-envelope Wolf-Rayet (WR) stars and may be critical to account for SN Ib/c progenitors. RY Scuti is an extremely rare example of a massive binary star caught in this brief but important phase. Its toroidal nebula indicates equatorial mass loss during RLOF, while the mass-gaining star is apparently embedded in an opaque accretion disk. RY Scuti's toroidal nebula has two components: an inner ionised double-ring system, and an outer dust torus that is twice the size of the ionised rings. We present two epochs of Lband Keck NGS-AO images of the dust torus, plus three epochs of HST images of the ionised gas rings. Proper motions show that the inner ionised rings and the outer dust torus came from two separate ejection events roughly 130 and 250 yr ago. This suggests that RLOF in massive contact binaries can be accompanied by eruptive and episodic burst of mass loss, reminiscent of LBVs. We speculate that the repeating outbursts may arise in the mass gainer from instabilities associated with a high accretion rate. If discrete mass-loss episodes in other RLOF binaries are accompanied by luminous outbursts, they might contribute to the population of extragalactic optical transients. When RLOF ends for RY Scuti, the overluminous mass gainer, currently surrounded by an accretion disk, will probably become a B[e] supergiant and may outshine the hotter mass-donor star that should die as a Type Ib/c supernova.Comment: 15 pages, 7 figures, submitted to MNRA