Dynamics in Turbulence

This MPhil thesis explores two themes associated with the dynamics of inertial particles in turbulent fluids. Firstly, we consider an optimal partial covering of fractal sets in a two-dimensional space using ellipses which become increasingly anisotropic as their size is reduced. If the semi-minor axis is ϵ and the semi-major axis is δ, we set δ = ϵα, where 0 s and the angular velocity ω about the vorticity axis. We find that when τsω >> 1, the rods are predominantly either perpendicular or parallel to the vorticity. We also review the current literature on the dynamics of inertial particles in turbulent flows

Experienced temperature, health and the implications for the built environment

Domestic heating demand accounts for around 14% of all UK greenhouse gas emissions (BEIS, 2018c). Reduction of this demand is necessary if the UK is to meet its emissions commitments. At the same time, the consensus is that dangerous cold exposure contributes to winter mortality rates. However, determining when, where and for whom this dangerous exposure occurs is challenging. Rather than using static measures of ambient temperature, this study makes use of experienced temperature { a novel measure of the immediate thermal environment of an individual. The relationships between experienced temperature and sociodemographic, housing and health factors are examined using data from a longitudinal observational health study of over 100,000 participants (the UK Biobank). Each participant wore an AX3 activity monitor for a week of everyday life between May 2013 and December 2015, which also measured temperature. The total unprocessed dataset for all participants was over 27TB. Following a considerable data processing exercise, each participant's experienced temperature and activity data were summarised in a series of metrics designed to characterise cold exposure. The resultant metrics were used in regression models against the available sociodemographic, housing and health factors to determine the relationship between cold exposure and health. Various findings were revealed. The choice of summary metric is important to characterising the experienced temperature of a participant. The coldest times of the year are associated with lower experienced temperature for participants. Experienced temperature increases with age and decreases with activity level, health satisfaction and whether a solid-fuel open re is used for home heating. There is clear evidence that low standard deviation of experienced temperature, named thermal variety in this study, is associated with poor health. The implications of these findings are discussed, with particular attention on who might be targeted for domestic carbon reduction schemes without risking overall population health

The public health implications of the Paris Agreement: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: nationally determined contributions (NDCs) serve to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement of staying "well below 2°C", which could also yield substantial health co-benefits in the process. However, existing NDC commitments are inadequate to achieve this goal. Placing health as a key focus of the NDCs could present an opportunity to increase ambition and realise health co-benefits. We modelled scenarios to analyse the health co-benefits of NDCs for the year 2040 for nine representative countries (ie, Brazil, China, Germany, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, South Africa, the UK, and the USA) that were selected for their contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions and their global or regional influence. METHODS: Modelling the energy, food and agriculture, and transport sectors, and mortality related to risk factors of air pollution, diet, and physical activity, we analysed the health co-benefits of existing NDCs and related policies (ie, the current pathways scenario) for 2040 in nine countries around the world. We compared these health co-benefits with two alternative scenarios, one consistent with the goal of the Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals (ie, the sustainable pathways scenario), and one in line with the sustainable pathways scenario, but also placing health as a central focus of the policies (ie, the health in all climate policies scenario). FINDINGS: Compared with the current pathways scenario, the sustainable pathways scenario resulted in an annual reduction of 1·18 million air pollution-related deaths, 5·86 million diet-related deaths, and 1·15 million deaths due to physical inactivity, across the nine countries, by 2040. Adopting the more ambitious health in all climate policies scenario would result in a further reduction of 462 000 annual deaths attributable to air pollution, 572 000 annual deaths attributable to diet, and 943 000 annual deaths attributable to physical inactivity. These benefits were attributable to the mitigation of direct greenhouse gas emissions and the commensurate actions that reduce exposure to harmful pollutants, as well as improved diets and safe physical activity. INTERPRETATION: A greater consideration of health in the NDCs and climate change mitigation policies has the potential to yield considerable health benefits as well as achieve the "well below 2°C" commitment across a range of regional and economic contexts. FUNDING: This work was in part funded through an unrestricted grant from the Wellcome Trust (award number 209734/Z/17/Z) and supported by an Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council grant (grant number EP/R035288/1)

The public health implications of the Paris Agreement: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: nationally determined contributions (NDCs) serve to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement of staying "well below 2°C", which could also yield substantial health co-benefits in the process. However, existing NDC commitments are inadequate to achieve this goal. Placing health as a key focus of the NDCs could present an opportunity to increase ambition and realise health co-benefits. We modelled scenarios to analyse the health co-benefits of NDCs for the year 2040 for nine representative countries (ie, Brazil, China, Germany, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, South Africa, the UK, and the USA) that were selected for their contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions and their global or regional influence. METHODS: Modelling the energy, food and agriculture, and transport sectors, and mortality related to risk factors of air pollution, diet, and physical activity, we analysed the health co-benefits of existing NDCs and related policies (ie, the current pathways scenario) for 2040 in nine countries around the world. We compared these health co-benefits with two alternative scenarios, one consistent with the goal of the Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals (ie, the sustainable pathways scenario), and one in line with the sustainable pathways scenario, but also placing health as a central focus of the policies (ie, the health in all climate policies scenario). FINDINGS: Compared with the current pathways scenario, the sustainable pathways scenario resulted in an annual reduction of 1·18 million air pollution-related deaths, 5·86 million diet-related deaths, and 1·15 million deaths due to physical inactivity, across the nine countries, by 2040. Adopting the more ambitious health in all climate policies scenario would result in a further reduction of 462 000 annual deaths attributable to air pollution, 572 000 annual deaths attributable to diet, and 943 000 annual deaths attributable to physical inactivity. These benefits were attributable to the mitigation of direct greenhouse gas emissions and the commensurate actions that reduce exposure to harmful pollutants, as well as improved diets and safe physical activity. INTERPRETATION: A greater consideration of health in the NDCs and climate change mitigation policies has the potential to yield considerable health benefits as well as achieve the "well below 2°C" commitment across a range of regional and economic contexts. FUNDING: This work was in part funded through an unrestricted grant from the Wellcome Trust (award number 209734/Z/17/Z) and supported by an Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council grant (grant number EP/R035288/1)

A national-scale dataset for threats impacting Australia's imperiled flora and fauna

Australia is in the midst of an extinction crisis, having already lost 10% of terrestrial mammal fauna since European settlement and with hundreds of other species at high risk of extinction. The decline of the nation's biota is a result of an array of threatening processes; however, a comprehensive taxon-specific understanding of threats and their relative impacts remains undocumented nationally. Using expert consultation, we compile the first complete, validated, and consistent taxon-specific threat and impact dataset for all nationally listed threatened taxa in Australia. We confined our analysis to 1,795 terrestrial and aquatic taxa listed as threatened (Vulnerable, Endangered, or Critically Endangered) under Australian Commonwealth law. We engaged taxonomic experts to generate taxon-specific threat and threat impact information to consistently apply the IUCN Threat Classification Scheme and Threat Impact Scoring System, as well as eight broad-level threats and 51 subcategory threats, for all 1,795 threatened terrestrial and aquatic threatened taxa. This compilation produced 4,877 unique taxon–threat–impact combinations with the most frequently listed threats being Habitat loss, fragmentation, and degradation (n = 1,210 taxa), and Invasive species and disease (n = 966 taxa). Yet when only high-impact threats or medium-impact threats are considered, Invasive species and disease become the most prevalent threats. This dataset provides critical information for conservation action planning, national legislation and policy, and prioritizing investments in threatened species management and recovery

The 2020 report of The Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: responding to converging crises

The Lancet Countdown is an international collaboration, established to provide an independent, global monitoring system dedicated to tracking the emerging health profile of the changing climate. The 2020 report presents 43 indicators across five sections: climate change impacts, exposures, and vulnerability; adaptation, planning, and resilience for health; mitigation actions and health co-benefits; economics and finance; and public and political engagement. This report represents the findings and consensus of the 35 leading academic institutions and UN agencies that make up the Lancet Countdown, and draws on the expertise of climate scientists, geographers, and engineers; of energy, food, and transport experts; and of economists, social and political scientists, data scientists, public health professionals, and doctors

Supplementary data file to "International food trade contributes to dietary risks and mortality at global, regional, and national levels"

The dataset is the Supplementary Data File to "International food trade contributes to dietary risks and mortality at global, regional, and national levels" by Springmann, M., Kennard, H., Daily, C., Freund. F., published in Nature Food in 2023. The data contains global, regional, and country-level data on trade in food groups related to dietary risks, trade-related changes in food availability and intake, and changes in mortality attributable to imported foods

FCC Regulation and Other Oxymorons: Seven Axioms to Grind

This article takes a light-hearted, yet pointed, look at the regulatory policies of the FCC. In particular, the authors discuss seven regulatory axioms that seem to have plagued the Commission in keeping up with communications technology. If the Commission were willing to discard these antediluvian maxims, there is hope that the Commission can adapt to the electronic media. To this end, the authors suggest seven modern axioms to replace those that the Commission presently follows

The associations between thermal variety and health: Implications for space heating energy use.

Fossil fuels dominate domestic heating in temperate climates. In the EU, domestic space heating accounts for around 20% of final energy demand. Reducing domestic demand temperatures would reduce energy demand. However, cold exposure has been shown to be associated with adverse health conditions. Using an observational dataset of 77,762 UK Biobank participants, we examine the standard deviation of experienced temperature (named here thermal variety) measured by a wrist worn activity and temperature monitor. After controlling for covariates such as age, activity level and obesity, we show that thermal variety is 0.15°C 95% CI [0.07-0.23] higher for participants whose health satisfaction was 'extremely happy' compared to 'extremely unhappy'. Higher thermal variety is also associated with a lower risk of having morbidities related to excess winter deaths. We argue that significant CO2 savings would be made by increasing thermal variety and reducing domestic demand temperatures in the healthiest homes. However, great care is needed to avoid secondary health impacts due to mould and damp. Vulnerable households should receive increased attention