Verifying reliability of selected meteorological elements in the GFS and WRF models in Poznań

The article presents the results of a study comparing the reliability of the GFS and WRF numerical models using different spatial resolutions. The study was carried out on the basis of a series of model and observational data for a period of 13 months from January 2015 to January 2016 with computational grid coordinates corresponding to the location of Poznań. Forecast quality was compared for basic meteorological parameters – air temperature, atmospheric pressure and wind speed. The quality of forecasts for the meteorological parameters included in the study decreased systematically in subsequent time steps in the case of both the WRF and the GFS models. It improved in the initial hours of simulation after a higher resolution was applied for the computational grid in the WRF model (1,75 km) as can be seen from the minimal Mean Error values and very high correlation. For forecast time t = 0–60 h, WRF generated better results than GFS, especially when it comes to the quality of forecasting the atmospheric pressure field

Efficacy of Different Leuprolide Administration Schedules in Premenopausal Breast Cancer: A Retrospective Review

Background Leuprolide is a safe and effective treatment of estrogen receptor–positive premenopausal breast cancer. Data from the SOFT/TEXT trials solidified leuprolide in combination with an aromatase inhibitor as an effective hormonal treatment for premenopausal breast cancer. However, the efficacy of monthly leuprolide depot compared to leuprolide depot every 3 months in combination with an aromatase inhibitor in this patient population is unclear. Patients and Methods In this single center retrospective study, 201 patients were enrolled between January 1, 2015, and October 1, 2016; 100 were included in the 7.5 mg leuprolide monthly injection plus aromatase inhibitor group and 101 in the 22.5 mg leuprolide injection every 3 months plus aromatase inhibitor group. The primary end point was the proportion of patients who experienced ovarian ablation, defined as an estradiol concentration less than 40 pg/mL and a follicle-stimulating hormone concentration of 23 to 116 mU/mL after 3 months of treatment. Significance threshold was P < .05 (2 sided). Secondary end points included disease-free survival and overall survival at 1-year follow-up, as well as adverse events reported during treatment. Results All patients in the monthly leuprolide arm experienced ovarian ablation compared to 100 (99%) of 101 patients in the arm treated every 3 months ( P = 1). The disease-free survival rate at 1 year was 95% in the monthly leuprolide arm and 97% in the arm treated every 3 months ( P = .75). The overall survival rate at 1 year was 100% in the monthly leuprolide arm and 99% in the arm treated every 3 months ( P = 1). The most common treatment-related adverse events between the 2 groups were musculoskeletal pain, hot flashes, fatigue, and insomnia. Conclusion Leuprolide acetate depot administered every 3 months is as efficacious and tolerable as a monthly injection in combination with an aromatase inhibitor for premenopausal patients with hormone receptor–positive breast cancer

Fire resistance of wooden structures with columnar system

Import 04/02/2014Předmětem diplomové práce je obecný popis sloupkového konstrukčního systému dřevostaveb, jeho konstrukčních opatření, skladeb, rozměrů a využívaných materiálů. Další částí práce je studium základních principů a metod analýzy požární odolnosti dřevostavby, která odpovídá rozsahu zadání. V poslední části práce jsou tyto poznatky aplikovány a je proveden popis a statický posudek navržené dřevostavby pro požadovanou dobu požární odolnosti dle EC.The aim of this thesis is general description of wooden structures with columnar system, requirements, composition, dimensions and used materials. Second part of this work is study of basic principles and methods of wooden house fire resistance analysis, corresponding with the assignment. In the last part there are applied these findings together with a description and static assesment of designed wooden house for the reguired fire resistance according to EC5.221 - Katedra konstrukcídobř

Análise espacial do desenvolvimento da pandemia da Covid-19 no estado do Rio Grande do Sul

Em março de 2020 , a Organização Mundial da Saúde (OMS) declarou que um a nova doença respiratória, a SARS-CoV-2, atingiu o estágio de pandemia. No Brasil , os primeiros casos foram relatados em fins de fevereiro e, no Rio Grande do Sul , no dia 10 de março. No presente estudo, realizou-se uma análise espaci al associando dados referentes às taxas de mortalidade e incidência dos municípios sul riograndenses com dados socioeconômicos, para dois momentos separados da pandemia. Assim , foi possível uma compreensão do processo de espalhamento do vírus pelo Estado. Foram utilizados métodos estatísticos espaciais, seguidos de interpretação dos dados gerados referentes às correlações presentes entre as variáveis socioeconômicas e as referentes ao avanço da COVID-19. A pesquisa utilizou dados provenientes da Secretária Estadual de Saúde do Rio Grande do Sul e da Fundação de Economia e Estatística (FEE) para o período do primeiro mês da pandemia e até setembro de 2021. Foi constatado que questões socioeconômicas foram cruciais para o valor das taxas, principalmente a de mortalidade, revelando a importância de políticas públicas que pensam as diferenças inter-regionais do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul.At March 2020, the World Health Organization declared that the new respiratory disease, which emerged in the city of Wuhan in China, SARS-CoV-2, has reached a pandemic stage. In Bra zil, the first cases were reported in February and in Rio Grande do Sul on March 10. The present study was d e dicated to spatial analysis, associating data on mortality and incidence rates in southern Rio Grande do Sul municipalities with socioeconomic data, for two separate moments of the pandemic. Thus, a better understanding of the spread of the virus across the state was possible. Statistical methods were used, followed by the interpretation of the data generated regarding the correlation between socioeconomic variables and those referring to COVID - 19. The research used data from the State Secretary of Health of Rio Grande do Sul and the Economics and Statistics Foundation (FEE) for the period from the first month of the pandemic to September 2021. It was found that socioeconomic issues are crucial for the value of rates, especially mortality, revealing the importance of public policies that consider the interregional differences in the state of Rio Grande do Sul

Automated image analysis for trajectory determination of single drop collisions

The fundamental analysis of drop coalescence probability in liquid/liquid systems is necessary to reliably predict drop size distributions in technical applications. For this crucial investigation two colliding oil drops in continuous water phase were recorded with different high speed camera set-ups under varying conditions. In order to analyze the huge amount of recorded image sequences with varying resolutions and qualities, a robust automated image analysis was developed. This analysis is able to determine the trajectories of two colliding drops as well as the important events of drop detachment from cannulas and their collision. With this information the drop velocity in each sequence is calculated and mean values of multiple drop collisions are determined for serial examinations of single drop collisions. Using the developed automated image analysis for drop trajectory and velocity calculation, approximately 1-2 recorded high speed image sequences can be evaluated per minute. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

Is My Exercise Partner Similar Enough? Partner Characteristics as a Moderator of the Köhler Effect in Exergames

Objective: Recent research has shown the Köhler motivation gain effect (working at a task with a more capable partner where one's performance is indispensable to the group) leads to greater effort in partnered exercise videogame play. The purpose of this article was to examine potential moderators of the Köhler effect by exploring dissimilarities in one's partner's appearance, namely, having an older partner (compared with a same-age partner) and having a heavier-weight partner (compared with a same-weight partner). Subjects and Methods: One hundred fifty-three male and female college students completed a series of plank exercises using the “EyeToy: Kinetic™” for the PlayStation® 2 (Sony, Tokyo, Japan). Participants first completed the exercises individually and, after a rest, completed the same exercises with a virtually present partner. Exercise persistence, subjective effort, self-efficacy beliefs, enjoyment, and intentions to exercise were recorded and analyzed. Results: A significant Köhler motivation gain was observed in all partner conditions (compared with individual controls) such that participants with a partner held the plank exercises longer (P<0.001) and reported higher subjective effort (P<0.01). These results were unmoderated by partner's age and weight, with one exception: Males tended to persist longer when paired with an obese partner (P=0.08). Conclusions: These results suggest that differences in age and weight do not attenuate the Köhler effect in exergames and may even strengthen it

Warm winter and cold summer spells in Spitsbergen and their circulation conditions

The objective of the study was to determine multi-annual changes and variability of occurrence of cold spells in summer and warm spells in winter on Spitsbergen in the period 1976–2016, and circulation conditions of their occurrence. Cold days in summer were defined as days with mean daily air temperature lower than temperature corresponding to the 10th percentile from daily temperature, and warm days in winter as days with mean daily air temperature exceeding the 90th percentile from daily air temperature. The research showed a statistically significant increase in mean air temperature, the rate of which in winter was more than four times higher than in summer. The observed warming translated into a decrease in the number of cold days in summer (-2.5 days/10 years in Svalbard Lufthavn and -1.3 days/10 years in Ny-Ålesund) and an increase in the number of warm days in winter (2.7 days/10 years in Svalbard Lufthavn and 2.4 days/10 years in Ny-Ålesund), and warm and cold spells related to the frequency of such days. The rate of the changes was higher in Svalbard Lufthavn than in Ny-Ålesund. The occurrence of cold days and cold spells was particularly related to the advection of air masses from the north-western sector. The occurrence of warm days and warm spells was related to the advection of air masses from the south-west

Točnost prognoza temperature zraka dobivenih odabranim kratko- i dugoročnim numeričkim modelima prognoze vremena iznad Poljske

The article discusses the results of air temperature forecasts from four short-term and two long-term forecasts of numerical weather prediction models. The analysis covered the results of model simulations from January 2015 to January 2016 and compared them at 14 meteorological stations in Poland. The comparison was made based on the most commonly used measures for continuous parameters i.e., ME (mean error), MAE (mean absolute error), RMSE (root mean square error), MSE (mean square error), BIAS and Pearson correlation. In the short time horizon, the best results in the context of the MAE, RMSE, MSE and correlation values were obtained by the Unified Model, although the diagnosed differences between the models are small. All models in the 0–72 h projection horizon reached a correlation of 0.95–0.97 and an MAE in the range of 1.5 °C to 2.1 °C. In the case of long-term forecasts, the HIRLAM model was slightly better than the GFS model. Clearly, in both cases, there is a marked decrease in quality after the fourth and in the following forecast lead days.U članku se razmatraju rezultati prognoze temperature zraka pomoću četiri kratkoročna i dva dugoročna numerička modela prognoze vremena. Analiza je obuhvatila rezultate simulacija modela od siječnja 2015. do siječnja 2016., koji su uspoređeni s podacima 14 meteoroloških postaja u Poljskoj. Usporedba je izrađena na temelju najčešće korištenih mjera za kontinuirane parametre, tj ME (srednja pogreška), MAE (srednja apsolutna pogreška), RMSE (korijen srednje kvadratne pogreške), MSE (srednja kvadratna pogreška), BIAS i Pearsonova korelacija. Za ovako kratak vremenski interval, u kontekstu vrijednosti MAE, RMSE, MSE i korelacije, najbolji rezultati dobiveni su ujedinjenim modelom, iako su utvrđene razlike među modelima male. Svi modeli su u prognostičkom vremenu od 0 do 72 h dostigli korelaciju od 0,95 do 0,97 i MAE u rasponu od 1,5 °C do 2,1 °C. U slučaju dugoročnih prognoza model HIRLAM bio je nešto bolji od GFS modela. Jasno je da u oba slučaja dolazi do znatnog smanjenja kvalitete nakon četvrtog i sljedećih prognostičkih dana

An eating disorder randomized clinical trial and attrition: Profiles and determinants of dropout

Objective: This study sought to determine whether differential treatment effects in the targeted mechanisms of change and eating disorder (ED) symptoms are associated with patterns of attrition from a RCT. Method: The main study was a RCT of a psychotherapy designed to alter the non-weight related self-cognitions as the means to promote recovery and health in a sample of 69 women with AN or BN. Four groups based on point of dropout were compared on demographic, self-cognitions and ED symptoms using logit and piecewise mixed effects modeling. Results: Attrition was highest during treatment phase but no significant predictors were found. During the measurement phase, the direction and amount of change in self-cognition interrelatedness and body dissatisfaction differed according to point of dropout and treatment group. Discussion: Attention to changes both in symptoms and mediating factors that occur during treatment and follow-up may help to identify those who are at risk for dropout and to develop strategies to promote RCT participant retention. © 2010 by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. (Int J Eat Disord 2011; 44:356–368)Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/83766/1/20800_ftp.pd

Exercise Adoption Among Older, Low-Income Women at Risk for Cardiovascular Disease

Using an expanded Social Cognitive Theory (SCT) model, we hypothesized that self-efficacy, outcome expectations, and exercise self-definition would predict exercise adoption. This secondary analysis examined data from a prospective single-group study of low-income women who received a physician screen and referral to a community-based, free exercise program. The sample included 190 older, low-income women with a mean age of 64 years, the majority of whom were African American (66%) and had at least one cardiovascular risk factor (92%). Baseline values of self-efficacy, outcome expectations, and exercise self-definition were measured using instruments developed for the study. Exercise adoption was defined as the number of exercise sessions completed over 8 weeks. Our hypothesis was tested using hierarchical multiple regression. The mean number of exercise sessions completed over the 8-week period was 5.7 out of a recommended 24. Value of Exercise scores, a subscale of the Exercise Self-Definition scale, predicted exercise adoption. Self-efficacy and outcome expectations were not predictive. The significance of Value of Exercise scores reinforces the importance of expanding SCT with additional variables such as exercise self-definition. Future work should emphasize the social and environmental factors that form an important part of SCT.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/78727/1/j.1525-1446.2009.00829.x.pd