Territory-wide cohort study of Brugada syndrome in Hong Kong: predictors of long-term outcomes using random survival forests and non-negative matrix factorisation

OBJECTIVES: Brugada syndrome (BrS) is an ion channelopathy that predisposes affected patients to spontaneous ventricular tachycardia/fibrillation (VT/VF) and sudden cardiac death. The aim of this study is to examine the predictive factors of spontaneous VT/VF. METHODS: This was a territory-wide retrospective cohort study of patients diagnosed with BrS between 1997 and 2019. The primary outcome was spontaneous VT/VF. Cox regression was used to identify significant risk predictors. Non-linear interactions between variables (latent patterns) were extracted using non-negative matrix factorisation (NMF) and used as inputs into the random survival forest (RSF) model. RESULTS: This study included 516 consecutive BrS patients (mean age of initial presentation=50±16 years, male=92%) with a median follow-up of 86 (IQR: 45-118) months. The cohort was divided into subgroups based on initial disease manifestation: asymptomatic (n=314), syncope (n=159) or VT/VF (n=41). Annualised event rates per person-year were 1.70%, 0.05% and 0.01% for the VT/VF, syncope and asymptomatic subgroups, respectively. Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed initial presentation of VT/VF (HR=24.0, 95% CI=1.21 to 479, p=0.037) and SD of P-wave duration (HR=1.07, 95% CI=1.00 to 1.13, p=0.044) were significant predictors. The NMF-RSF showed the best predictive performance compared with RSF and Cox regression models (precision: 0.87 vs 0.83 vs. 0.76, recall: 0.89 vs. 0.85 vs 0.73, F1-score: 0.88 vs 0.84 vs 0.74). CONCLUSIONS: Clinical history, electrocardiographic markers and investigation results provide important information for risk stratification. Machine learning techniques using NMF and RSF significantly improves overall risk stratification performance

Development of a multivariable prediction model for severe COVID-19 disease: a population-based study from Hong Kong

Recent studies have reported numerous predictors for adverse outcomes in COVID-19 disease. However, there have been few simple clinical risk scores available for prompt risk stratification. The objective is to develop a simple risk score for predicting severe COVID-19 disease using territory-wide data based on simple clinical and laboratory variables. Consecutive patients admitted to Hong Kong's public hospitals between 1 January and 22 August 2020 and diagnosed with COVID-19, as confirmed by RT-PCR, were included. The primary outcome was composite intensive care unit admission, need for intubation or death with follow-up until 8 September 2020. An external independent cohort from Wuhan was used for model validation. COVID-19 testing was performed in 237,493 patients and 4442 patients (median age 44.8 years old, 95% confidence interval (CI): [28.9, 60.8]); 50% males) were tested positive. Of these, 209 patients (4.8%) met the primary outcome. A risk score including the following components was derived from Cox regression: gender, age, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, atrial fibrillation, heart failure, ischemic heart disease, peripheral vascular disease, stroke, dementia, liver diseases, gastrointestinal bleeding, cancer, increases in neutrophil count, potassium, urea, creatinine, aspartate transaminase, alanine transaminase, bilirubin, D-dimer, high sensitive troponin-I, lactate dehydrogenase, activated partial thromboplastin time, prothrombin time, and C-reactive protein, as well as decreases in lymphocyte count, platelet, hematocrit, albumin, sodium, low-density lipoprotein, high-density lipoprotein, cholesterol, glucose, and base excess. The model based on test results taken on the day of admission demonstrated an excellent predictive value. Incorporation of test results on successive time points did not further improve risk prediction. The derived score system was evaluated with out-of-sample five-cross-validation (AUC: 0.86, 95% CI: 0.82-0.91) and external validation (N = 202, AUC: 0.89, 95% CI: 0.85-0.93). A simple clinical score accurately predicted severe COVID-19 disease, even without including symptoms, blood pressure or oxygen status on presentation, or chest radiograph results

'The Drug Survey App': a protocol for developing and validating an interactive population survey tool for drug use among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians.

BACKGROUND: Disadvantage and transgenerational trauma contribute to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander (Indigenous) Australians being more likely to experience adverse health consequences from alcohol and other drug use than non-Indigenous peoples. Addressing these health inequities requires local monitoring of alcohol and other drug use. While culturally appropriate methods for measuring drinking patterns among Indigenous Australians have been established, no similar methods are available for measuring other drug use patterns (amount and frequency of consumption). This paper describes a protocol for creating and validating a tablet-based survey for alcohol and other drugs ("The Drug Survey App"). METHODS: The Drug Survey App will be co-designed with stakeholders including Indigenous Australian health professionals, addiction specialists, community leaders, and researchers. The App will allow participants to describe their drug use flexibly with an interactive, visual interface. The validity of estimated consumption patterns, and risk assessments will be tested against those made in clinical interviews conducted by Indigenous Australian health professionals. We will then trial the App as a population survey tool by using the App to determine the prevalence of substance use in two Indigenous communities. DISCUSSION: The App could empower Indigenous Australian communities to conduct independent research that informs local prevention and treatment efforts

Development of mental health first aid guidelines for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people experiencing problems with substance use: a Delphi study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Problems with substance use are common in some Aboriginal communities. Although problems with substance use are associated with significant mortality and morbidity, many people who experience them do not seek help. Training in mental health first aid has been shown to be effective in increasing knowledge of symptoms and behaviours associated with seeking help. The current study aimed to develop culturally appropriate guidelines for providing mental health first aid to an Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander person who is experiencing problem drinking or problem drug use (e.g. abuse or dependence).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Twenty-eight Aboriginal health experts participated in two independent Delphi studies (n = 22 problem drinking study, n = 21 problem drug use; 15 participated in both). Panellists were presented with statements about possible first aid actions via online questionnaires and were encouraged to suggest additional actions not covered by the content. Statements were accepted for inclusion in the guidelines if they were endorsed by ≥ 90% of panellists as either 'Essential' or 'Important'. At the end of the two Delphi studies, participants were asked to give feedback on the value of the project and their participation experience.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>From a total of 735 statements presented over two studies, 429 were endorsed (223 problem drinking, 206 problem drug use). Statements were grouped into sections based on common themes (n = 7 problem drinking, n = 8 problem drug use), then written into guideline documents. Participants evaluated the Delphi method employed, and the guidelines developed, as useful and appropriate for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Aboriginal health experts were able to reach consensus about culturally appropriate first aid for problems with substance use. Many first aid actions endorsed in the current studies were not endorsed in previous international Delphi studies, conducted on problem drinking and problem drug use in non-Indigenous people, highlighting the need for culturally specific first aid strategies to be employed when assisting Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander people.</p

Spinal Cord Injury Causes Sustained Disruption of the Blood-Testis Barrier in the Rat

There is a high incidence of infertility in males following traumatic spinal cord injury (SCI). Quality of semen is frequently poor in these patients, but the pathophysiological mechanism(s) causing this are not known. Blood-testis barrier (BTB) integrity following SCI has not previously been examined. The objective of this study was to characterize the effects of spinal contusion injury on the BTB in the rat. 63 adult, male Sprague Dawley rats received SCI (n = 28), laminectomy only (n = 7) or served as uninjured, age-matched controls (n = 28). Using dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (DCE-MRI), BTB permeability to the vascular contrast agent gadopentate dimeglumine (Gd) was assessed at either 72 hours-, or 10 months post-SCI. DCE-MRI data revealed that BTB permeability to Gd was greater than controls at both 72 h and 10 mo post-SCI. Histological evaluation of testis tissue showed increased BTB permeability to immunoglobulin G at both 72 hours- and 10 months post-SCI, compared to age-matched sham-operated and uninjured controls. Tight junctional integrity within the seminiferous epithelium was assessed; at 72 hours post-SCI, decreased expression of the tight junction protein occludin was observed. Presence of inflammation in the testes was also examined. High expression of the proinflammatory cytokine interleukin-1 beta was detected in testis tissue. CD68+ immune cell infiltrate and mast cells were also detected within the seminiferous epithelium of both acute and chronic SCI groups but not in controls. In addition, extensive germ cell apoptosis was observed at 72 h post-SCI. Based on these results, we conclude that SCI is followed by compromised BTB integrity by as early as 72 hours post-injury in rats and is accompanied by a substantial immune response within the testis. Furthermore, our results indicate that the BTB remains compromised and testis immune cell infiltration persists for months after the initial injury

Pooled analysis of WHO Surgical Safety Checklist use and mortality after emergency laparotomy

Background The World Health Organization (WHO) Surgical Safety Checklist has fostered safe practice for 10 years, yet its place in emergency surgery has not been assessed on a global scale. The aim of this study was to evaluate reported checklist use in emergency settings and examine the relationship with perioperative mortality in patients who had emergency laparotomy. Methods In two multinational cohort studies, adults undergoing emergency laparotomy were compared with those having elective gastrointestinal surgery. Relationships between reported checklist use and mortality were determined using multivariable logistic regression and bootstrapped simulation. Results Of 12 296 patients included from 76 countries, 4843 underwent emergency laparotomy. After adjusting for patient and disease factors, checklist use before emergency laparotomy was more common in countries with a high Human Development Index (HDI) (2455 of 2741, 89.6 per cent) compared with that in countries with a middle (753 of 1242, 60.6 per cent; odds ratio (OR) 0.17, 95 per cent c.i. 0.14 to 0.21, P <0001) or low (363 of 860, 422 per cent; OR 008, 007 to 010, P <0.001) HDI. Checklist use was less common in elective surgery than for emergency laparotomy in high-HDI countries (risk difference -94 (95 per cent c.i. -11.9 to -6.9) per cent; P <0001), but the relationship was reversed in low-HDI countries (+121 (+7.0 to +173) per cent; P <0001). In multivariable models, checklist use was associated with a lower 30-day perioperative mortality (OR 0.60, 0.50 to 073; P <0.001). The greatest absolute benefit was seen for emergency surgery in low- and middle-HDI countries. Conclusion Checklist use in emergency laparotomy was associated with a significantly lower perioperative mortality rate. Checklist use in low-HDI countries was half that in high-HDI countries.Peer reviewe