Combining local model calibration with the emergent constraint approach to reduce uncertainty in the tropical land carbon cycle feedback

The role of the land carbon cycle in climate change remains highly uncertain. A key source of the projection spread is related to the assumed response of photosynthesis to warming, especially in the tropics. The optimum temperature for photosynthesis determines whether warming positively or negatively impacts photosynthesis, thereby amplifying or suppressing CO2 fertilisation of photosynthesis under CO2-induced global warming. Land carbon cycle models have been extensively calibrated against local eddy flux measurements, but this has not previously been clearly translated into a reduced uncertainty in terms of how the tropical land carbon sink will respond to warming. Using a previous parameter perturbation ensemble carried out with version 3 of the Hadley Centre coupled climate–carbon cycle model (HadCM3C), we identify an emergent relationship between the optimal temperature for photosynthesis, which is especially relevant in tropical forests, and the projected amount of atmospheric CO2 at the end of the century. We combine this with a constraint on the optimum temperature for photosynthesis, derived from eddy covariance measurements using the adjoint of the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) land surface model. Taken together, the emergent relationship from the coupled model and the constraint on the optimum temperature for photosynthesis define an emergent constraint on future atmospheric CO2 in the HadCM3C coupled climate–carbon cycle under a common emissions scenario (A1B). The emergent constraint sharpens the probability density of simulated CO2 change (2100–1900) and moves its peak to a lower value of 497 ± 91 compared to 607 ± 128 ppmv (parts per million by volume) when using the equal-weight prior. Although this result is likely to be model and scenario dependent, it demonstrates the potential of combining the large-scale emergent constraint approach with a parameter estimation using detailed local measurements.</p

Ultrasound morphology of carotid plaque and its link with lipid: protein content and 3d microstructure of the plaque.

the 22nd Meeting of the European Society of Neurosonology and Cerebral Hemodynamics (ESNCH), 19-21 May 2017. Berlin, Germany, and published in the International Journal of Stroke 12(1S): 57 (Poster 101), May 2017. ISSN: 1747-4930, eISSN: 1747-4949

Social Capital and Housing Tenure in an Adelaide Neighbourhood

Author version made available in accordance with publisher copyright policy.In this paper we compare and contrast elements of social capital across different housing tenures in an Adelaide neighbourhood. Using the results of 530 self-completion questionnaires and in-depth qualitative interviews with 16 people we assess perceptions of conflict across housing tenures and between socioeconomic groups, feelings of acceptance and belonging in the local neighbourhood, and levels of involvement in local formal and informal networks. While only a small number of questionnaire respondents reported negative views of socioeconomic diversity in the area a common theme emerging in the qualitative data indicated that housing tenure was relevant to some of these negative perceptions. Respondents from across different tenure types also reported differences in feelings of acceptance in the neighbourhood, and involvement in formal and informal networks. The study findings suggest that housing tenure is relevant to the development of neighbourhood-based social capital, and that this factor needs to be considered by social planners, housing policy makers and others involved in implementing social mix policies. In addition, the findings indicate the need to consider the community housing and public housing tenures in their own right, given the different models of housing provision, rather than collectively under the common banner of social housing as most research studies do. It is recommended that the full diversity of housing tenure is considered in any future analysis

A user-centred evaluation framework for the Sealife semantic web browsers

Background: Semantically-enriched browsing has enhanced the browsing experience by providing contextualised dynamically generated Web content, and quicker access to searched-for information. However, adoption of Semantic Web technologies is limited and user perception from the non-IT domain sceptical. Furthermore, little attention has been given to evaluating semantic browsers with real users to demonstrate the enhancements and obtain valuable feedback. The Sealife project investigates semantic browsing and its application to the life science domain. Sealife's main objective is to develop the notion of context-based information integration by extending three existing Semantic Web browsers (SWBs) to link the existing Web to the eScience infrastructure. / Methods: This paper describes a user-centred evaluation framework that was developed to evaluate the Sealife SWBs that elicited feedback on users' perceptions on ease of use and information findability. Three sources of data: i) web server logs; ii) user questionnaires; and iii) semi-structured interviews were analysed and comparisons made between each browser and a control system. / Results: It was found that the evaluation framework used successfully elicited users' perceptions of the three distinct SWBs. The results indicate that the browser with the most mature and polished interface was rated higher for usability, and semantic links were used by the users of all three browsers. / Conclusion: Confirmation or contradiction of our original hypotheses with relation to SWBs is detailed along with observations of implementation issues

Popular attitudes to memory, the body, and social identity : the rise of external commemoration in Britain, Ireland, and New England

A comparative analysis of samples of external memorials from burial grounds in Britain, Ireland and New England reveals a widespread pattern of change in monument style and content, and exponential growth in the number of permanent memorials from the 18th century onwards. Although manifested in regionally distinctive styles on which most academic attention has so far been directed, the expansion reflects global changes in social relationships and concepts of memory and the body. An archaeological perspective reveals the importance of external memorials in articulating these changing attitudes in a world of increasing material consumption

Loss of a globally unique kelp forest from Oman

Kelp forests are declining in many regions globally with climatic perturbations causing shifts to alternate communities and significant ecological and economic loss. Range edge populations are often at most risk and are often only sustained through localised areas of upwelling or on deeper reefs. Here we document the loss of kelp forests (Ecklonia radiata) from the Sultanate of Oman, the only confirmed northern hemisphere population of this species. Contemporary surveys failed to find any kelp in its only known historical northern hemisphere location, Sadah on the Dhofar coast. Genetic analyses of historical herbarium specimens from Oman confirmed the species to be E. radiata and revealed the lost population contained a common CO1 haplotype found across South Africa, Australia and New Zealand suggesting it once established through rapid colonisation throughout its range. However, the Omani population also contained a haplotype that is found nowhere else in the extant southern hemisphere distribution of E. radiata. The loss of the Oman population could be due to significant increases in the Arabian Sea temperature over the past 40 years punctuated by suppression of coastal upwelling. Climate-mediated warming is threatening the persistence of temperate species and precipitating loss of unique genetic diversity at lower latitudes.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Rank-based model selection for multiple ions quantum tomography

The statistical analysis of measurement data has become a key component of many quantum engineering experiments. As standard full state tomography becomes unfeasible for large dimensional quantum systems, one needs to exploit prior information and the "sparsity" properties of the experimental state in order to reduce the dimensionality of the estimation problem. In this paper we propose model selection as a general principle for finding the simplest, or most parsimonious explanation of the data, by fitting different models and choosing the estimator with the best trade-off between likelihood fit and model complexity. We apply two well established model selection methods -- the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) -- to models consising of states of fixed rank and datasets such as are currently produced in multiple ions experiments. We test the performance of AIC and BIC on randomly chosen low rank states of 4 ions, and study the dependence of the selected rank with the number of measurement repetitions for one ion states. We then apply the methods to real data from a 4 ions experiment aimed at creating a Smolin state of rank 4. The two methods indicate that the optimal model for describing the data lies between ranks 6 and 9, and the Pearson $\chi^{2}$ test is applied to validate this conclusion. Additionally we find that the mean square error of the maximum likelihood estimator for pure states is close to that of the optimal over all possible measurements.Comment: 24 pages, 6 figures, 3 table

Young people, crime and school exclusion: a case of some surprises

During the 1990s the number of young people being permanently excluded from schools in England and Wales increased dramatically from 2,910 (1990/91) to a peak of 12,700 (1996/97). Coinciding with this rise was a resurgence of the debate centring on lawless and delinquent youth. With the publication of Young People and Crime (Graham and Bowling 1995) and Misspent Youth (Audit Commission 1996) the 'common sense assumption' that exclusion from school inexorably promoted crime received wide support, with the school excludee portrayed as another latter day 'folk devil'. This article explores the link between school exclusion and juvenile crime, and offers some key findings from a research study undertaken with 56 young people who had experience of being excluded from school. Self-report interview questions reveal that whilst 40 of the young people had offended, 90% (36) reported that the onset of their offending commenced prior to their first exclusion. Moreover, 50 (89.2% of the total number of young people in the sample), stated that they were no more likely to offend subsequent to being excluded and 31 (55.4%) stated that they were less likely to offend during their exclusion period. Often, this was because on being excluded, they were 'grounded' by their parents

Exploring concepts of health with male prisoners in three category-C English prisons

Lay understandings of health and illness have a well established track record and a plethora of research now exists which has examined these issues. However, there is a dearth of research which has examined the perspectives of those who are imprisoned. This paper attempts to address this research gap. The paper is timely given that calls have been made to examine lay perspectives in different geographical locations and a need to re-examine health promotion approaches in prison settings. Qualitative data from thirty-six male sentenced prisoners from three prisons in England were collected. The data was analysed in accordance with Attride-Stirling's (2001) thematic network approach. Although the men's perceptions of health were broadly similar to the general population, some interesting findings emerged which were directly related to prison life and its associated structures. These included access to the outdoors and time out of their prison cell, as well as maintaining relationships with family members through visits. The paper proposes that prisoners' lay views should be given higher priority given that prison health has traditionally been associated with medical treatment and the bio-medical paradigm more generally. It also suggests that in order to fulfil the World Health Organization's (WHO) vision of viewing prisons as health promoting settings, lay views should be recognised to shape future health promotion policy and practice

Perseveration in a spatial-discrimination serial reversal learning task is differentially affected by MAO-A and MAO-B inhibition and associated with reduced anxiety and peripheral serotonin levels

$\textit{Rationale}$ Impairments in behavioral flexibility lie at the core of anxiety and obsessive-compulsive disorders. Few studies, however, have investigated the neural substrates of natural variation in behavioral flexibility and whether inflexible behavior is linked to anxiety and peripheral markers of stress and monoamine function. $\textit{Objective}$ The objective of the study was to investigate peripheral and central markers associated with perseverative behavior on a spatial-discrimination serial reversal learning task. $\textit{Methods}$ Rats were trained on a reversal learning task prior to blood sampling, anxiety assessment, and the behavioral evaluation of selective monoamine oxidase-A (MAO-A) and MAO-B inhibitors, which block the degradation of serotonin (5-HT), dopamine (DA), and noradrenaline (NA). $\textit{Results}$ Perseveration correlated positively with 5-HT levels in blood plasma and inversely with trait anxiety, as measured on the elevated plus maze. No significant relationships were found between perseveration and the stress hormone corticosterone or the 5-HT precursor tryptophan. Reversal learning was significantly improved by systemic administration of the MAO-A inhibitor moclobemide but not by the MAO-B inhibitor lazabemide. Moclobemide also increased latencies to initiate a new trial following an incorrect response suggesting a possible role in modulating behavioral inhibition to negative feedback. MAO-A but not MAO-B inhibition resulted in pronounced increases in 5-HT and NA content in the orbitofrontal cortex and dorsal raphé nuclei and increased 5-HT and DA content in the basolateral amygdala and dorsomedial striatum. $\textit{Conclusions}$ These findings indicate that central and peripheral monoaminergic mechanisms underlie inter-individual variation in behavioral flexibility, which overlaps with trait anxiety and depends on functional MAO-A activity.This work was supported by Medical Research Council Grants (G0701500, G9536855), a Wellcome Trust Senior Investigator Award to TW Robbins (106431/Z/14/Z).and by a Core Award from the Medical Research Council (G1000183) and Wellcome Trust (093875/Z/10/Z) to the Behavioural and Clinical Neuroscience Institute. PZ was supported by the Pinsent Darwin studentship from the Physiology, Development, and Neuroscience Department. JA was supported by a Fellowship from the Swedish Research Council. BJ was supported by Fellowships from the AXA Research Fund, the National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia, and the Cambridge Newton Trust