The Max-Planck-Institute global ocean/sea ice model with orthogonal curvilinear coordinates

The Hamburg Ocean Primitive Equation model has undergone significant development in recent years. Most notable is the treatment of horizontal discretisation which has undergone transition from a staggered E-grid to an orthogonal curvilinear C-grid. The treatment of subgridscale mixing has been improved by the inclusion of a new formulation of bottom boundary layer (BBL) slope convection, an isopycnal diffusion scheme, and a Gent and McWilliams style eddy-induced mixing parameterisation. The model setup described here has a north pole over Greenland and a south pole on the coast of the Weddell Sea. This gives relatively high resolution in the sinking regions associated with the thermohaline circulation. Results are presented from a 450 year climatologically forced integration. The forcing is a product of the German Ocean Model Intercomparison Project and is derived from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting reanalysis. The main emphasis is on the model's representation of key quantities that are easily associated with the ocean's role in the global climate system. The global and Atlantic northward poleward heat transports have peaks of 1.43 and 0.84 PW, at 18degrees and 21degrees N respectively. The Atlantic meridional overturning streamfunction has a peak of 15.7 Sv in the North Atlantic and an outflow of 11.9 Sv at 30degrees S. Comparison with a simulation excluding BBL shows that the scheme is responsible for up to a 25% increase in North Atlantic heat transport, with significant improvement of the depths of convection in the Greenland, Labrador and Irminger Seas. Despite the improvements, comparison with observations shows the heat transport still to be too weak. Other outstanding problems include an incorrect Gulf Stream pathway, a too strong Antarctic Circumpolar Current, and a too weak renewal of Antarctic Intermediate Water. Nevertheless, the model has been coupled to the atmospheric GCM ECHAM5 and run successfully for over 250 years without any surface flux corrections. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved

Inter-hemispheric asymmetry in the sea-ice response to volcanic forcing simulated by MPI-ESM (COSMOS-Mill)

The decadal evolution of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice following strong volcanic eruptions is investigated in four climate simulation ensembles performed with the COSMOS-Mill version of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model. The ensembles differ in the magnitude of the imposed volcanic perturbations, with sizes representative of historical tropical eruptions (1991 Pinatubo and 1815 Tambora) and of tropical and extra-tropical "supervolcano" eruptions. A post-eruption Arctic sea-ice expansion is robustly detected in all ensembles, while Antarctic sea ice responds only to supervolcano eruptions, undergoing an initial short-lived expansion and a subsequent prolonged contraction phase. Strong volcanic forcing therefore emerges as a potential source of inter-hemispheric interannual-to-decadal climate variability, although the inter-hemispheric signature is weak in the case of eruptions comparable to historical eruptions. The post-eruption inter-hemispheric decadal asymmetry in sea ice is interpreted as a consequence mainly of the different exposure of Arctic and Antarctic regional climates to induced meridional heat transport changes and of dominating local feedbacks that set in within the Antarctic region. Supervolcano experiments help to clarify differences in simulated hemispheric internal dynamics related to imposed negative net radiative imbalances, including the relative importance of the thermal and dynamical components of the sea-ice response. Supervolcano experiments could therefore serve the assessment of climate models' behavior under strong external forcing conditions and, consequently, favor advancements in our understanding of simulated sea-ice dynamics

Ozone pollution from future ship traffic in the Arctic northern passages

With sea ice expected to recede in the Arctic during the 21st century as a result of projected climate warming, global shipping patterns will change considerably in the decades ahead. The opening of viable shipping routes through the Northern passages will generate new environmental problems including the degradation of air quality in the Arctic. The release of considerable amounts of carbon monoxide, nitric oxide and other chemical substances by the ship's combustion engines will enhance the level of atmospheric photooxidants and other secondary pollutants in this region. Here we show that, during the summer months, surface ozone concentrations in the Arctic could be enhanced by a factor of 2–3 in the decades ahead as a consequence of ship operations through the northern passages. Projected ozone concentrations of 40–60 ppbv from July to September are comparable to summertime values currently observed in many industrialized regions in the Northern Hemisphere

Medieval climate anomaly to little ice age transition as simulated by current climate models

Inter-model differences and model/reconstruction comparisons suggest that simulations of the Medieval Climate Anomaly either fail to reproduce the mechanisms of climate response to changes in external forcing, or that anomalies during this period are largely influenced by internal variability.Peer reviewe

Suscetibilidade do ambiente a ocorrências de queimadas sob condições climáticas atuais e de futuro aquecimento global Environmental susceptibility for the occurance of vegetacion burning under present day and future clobal warming conditions

As queimadas, a nível global, são a segunda maior fonte de emissões de gases de efeito estufa. Um passo importante para a redução dos impactos das queimadas é por meio de investigação da suscetibilidade, que um determinado ambiente possui para a queima ou mesmo para o alastramento do fogo (risco de fogo). Diante da necessidade de se conhecer possíveis implicações das mudanças na circulação atmosférica em um futuro próximo, pretende-se neste trabalho investigar a suscetibilidade do ambiente à ocorrência de queimadas, baseado no índice de risco de queimadas, a saber: o Índice de Haines (IH). Para tanto, dados de modelagem numérica do modelo ECHAM5/MPI-OM, e dados das reanálises do NCEP são empregados para os cálculos do IH em dois períodos: atual (1980-2000) e projeções climáticas para o final do século (2080-2100). Com base nos resultados, concluiu-se que o modelo de risco de fogo reproduz bem as áreas com maior incidência de queimadas sob condições atuais, e que sob condições de aquecimento global detectou-se um aumento na área de risco em especial para a região Amazônica.<br>Vegetation burning is the second source of greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere. An important step to reduce the climate impact of these emissions is to investigate the atmospheric susceptibility of a region for fire development (fire risk). This study aims to investigate the environmental susceptibility to fire development, based on the burning risk index: the Haines Index (HI). The study is carried out with data from the ECHAM5/MPI-OM climate model and the NCEP reanalysis data, to calculate the HI during two periods: present day (1980-2000) and climate projections for the end of the 21st century (2080-2100). Based upon the results, we concluded that the Haines index could reproduce properly the areas with the highest fire incidence under present conditions. Moreover, it has been found an enlargement in the fire risk area under global warming conditions, in particular for the Amazon region

Arctic climate change in an ensemble of regional CORDEX simulations

Fifth phase Climate Model Intercomparison Project historical and scenario simulations from four global climate models (GCMs) using the Representative Concentration Pathways greenhouse gas concentration trajectories RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are downscaled over the Arctic with the regional Rossby Centre Atmosphere model (RCA). The regional model simulations largely reflect the circulation bias patterns of the driving global models in the historical period, indicating the importance of lateral and lower boundary conditions. However, local differences occur as a reduced winter 2-m air temperature bias over the Arctic Ocean and increased cold biases over land areas in RCA. The projected changes are dominated by a strong warming in the Arctic, exceeding 15 degrees K in autumn and winter over the Arctic Ocean in RCP8.5, strongly increased precipitation and reduced sea-level pressure. Near-surface temperature and precipitation are linearly related in the Arctic. The wintertime inversion strength is reduced, leading to a less stable stratification of the Arctic atmosphere. The diurnal temperature range is reduced in all seasons. The large-scale change patterns are dominated by the surface and lateral boundary conditions so future response is similar in RCA and the driving global models. However, the warming over the Arctic Ocean is smaller in RCA; the warming over land is larger in winter and spring but smaller in summer. The future response of winter cloud cover is opposite in RCA and the GCMs. Precipitation changes in RCA are much larger during summer than in the global models and more small-scale change patterns occur