Analysis of Municipal Election Outcomes in Romania

In Romania, the 2008 local elections were held based on a new electoral law. The main changes concerned the election of chairpersons of county councils by uninominal voting, shifting of the general and presidential elections and the introduction of a uninominal voting system for parliamentary elections, with a correction of the total number of seats according to the total number of votes obtained by each party on national level. Voting behavior in local elections on 1st June 2008 was primarily determined by political reasons (loyal voters) and was influenced by the effect of the local leaders and the noise produced by ethnic vote. For all parties, prominent leaders drew votes. Inertia in voting behavior (electorate’s fidelity) influenced all parties’ results and the ethnic behavior had a strong effect on nationalist parties. At regional level, the electoral impact of economic variables was marginal.

REGIONAL ECONOMIC VOTING IN ROMANIA

In the paper we examine the economic voting theory for the Romanian local elections in June, 2008. Econometrically, we demonstrate that in the regional structures the main economic variables (dynamics of the gross domestic product per capita, rate of unemployment, dynamics of the average net nominal monthly earnings, etc.) do not significantly influence the voting behaviour, so that a model based on the esponsibility hypothesis is not adequate for explaining the creation of voting preferences in the Romanian regional structures in the June 2008 elections. We also demonstrate that for the June 2008 local elections the hypothesis of partisan voting cannot be econometrically supported. As a consequence, we have conceived a political impact model. Therefore, we have tested the hypothesis of faithful voters between two consecutive electoral moments, the engine role played by the well-known leaders, and the impact of the ethnic behaviour on the electoral space of the political party.Political Business Cycles, Vote Popularity Function, Partisan and/or Opportunistic Behaviour, Residuals in Regional Econometric Models

Analysis of Municipal Election Outcomes in Romania

In Romania, the 2008 local elections were held based on a new electoral law. The main changes concerned the election of chairpersons of county councils by uninominal voting, shifting of the general and presidential elections and the introduction of a uninominal voting system for parliamentary elections, with a correction of the total number of seats according to the total number of votes obtained by each party on national level. Voting behavior in local elections on 1st June 2008 was primarily determined by political reasons (loyal voters) and was influenced by the effect of the local leaders and the noise produced by ethnic vote. For all parties, prominent leaders drew votes. Inertia in voting behavior (electorate's fidelity) influenced all parties' results and the ethnic behavior had a strong effect on nationalist parties. At regional level, the electoral impact of economic variables was marginal

Regional Dynamics of Insurances in Romania

In the paper we analyze the economic, social, cultural, institutional and political factors that determine regional demand for services like "insurance". As economic factors, we analyze the impact of non-governmental credit over the insurance market. Development of an econometric model is based not only on the actual loan methodology (involving the securities, life insurance for applicants and guarantors), but also on direct connections from the range of credit risk insurance products. On the other hand, non-government credit growth, by enhancing repayment commitments, leads to a reduction in financial resources that can be used, for example, to voluntary/optional insurances, not directly linked with loan process. Last but not least, above-mentioned interferences put footprint on specific partnerships, such as – for example – bancassurance. The residues from the regression equation specific to each region can be explained by social and cultural characteristics. Based on these results, we considered two scenarios for the regional evolution of Romanian insurance market, first determined by the significant factors of this process (GDP/ capita, monthly nominal average wage/capita, population, size of distribution network) as they were outlined in a previous study, the second taking into account the new predictions of non-governmental loan in terms of economic and financial crisis

New genetic loci link adipose and insulin biology to body fat distribution.

Body fat distribution is a heritable trait and a well-established predictor of adverse metabolic outcomes, independent of overall adiposity. To increase our understanding of the genetic basis of body fat distribution and its molecular links to cardiometabolic traits, here we conduct genome-wide association meta-analyses of traits related to waist and hip circumferences in up to 224,459 individuals. We identify 49 loci (33 new) associated with waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for body mass index (BMI), and an additional 19 loci newly associated with related waist and hip circumference measures (P < 5 × 10(-8)). In total, 20 of the 49 waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for BMI loci show significant sexual dimorphism, 19 of which display a stronger effect in women. The identified loci were enriched for genes expressed in adipose tissue and for putative regulatory elements in adipocytes. Pathway analyses implicated adipogenesis, angiogenesis, transcriptional regulation and insulin resistance as processes affecting fat distribution, providing insight into potential pathophysiological mechanisms

Econometric Evidences of Political Business Cycles in Romania during the socialist regime and after

In this paper we analyse the link between politics and economics in Romania under the socialist regime and during the first years of democracy. To investigate th is relationship, we focus on how the electoral moments (election's dates for Great National Assembly) or political events (years of Communist Party Congresses) are related to the change of economic performance between 1960 and 1989. For the situation after the Revolution in 1989, we analyse the regional evidences

THE USE OF BLOCKCHAINS. AN R APPROACH

The cryptocurrency is a hot topic and understanding the blockchain is very important. Also, understanding what blockchain may lead to more decentralized services and applications to be used, not only in relation to financial applications. Today, blockchains can be used to for smart contracts, decentralized networks, governments and non-profit organizations, banks and even photography copyright recordings and smart contracts for music artists. Even World Economic Forum predicted that by 2015 about 10% of global GDP will be stored on blockchain technology. The blockchain technology cosists in creating a chain of blocks, validated with a hash function and under a “proof of work” concept, which limits speed of creating new blocks. The new technology is open source, but recently has attracted the attention of big software players, like Microsoft and other companies (BBVA, UBS). In this paper, we present a simple R implementation of a blockchain, containing a initial block, creation of each blocks (including hash and proof of work) and the creation of the chain. Data validation and the lack of so-called middle man, minimization of the fees, increasing the speed of transactions, security and anonymity provided by this technology are good arguments for ensuring the continuous development of the technology and its spreading in everyday activities

NEW TRENDS IN ECONOMIC FORECASTING

Economic forecasting is a dynamic domain. New methods are developed and tested and the methodology needs to be updated according to economic reality. Classical approach in methodology must be completed with latest trends in econometric analysis and the forecasting methods have to benefit from the increasing computational power of the modern software. One of the main causes of false prediction is using altered data. In this paper, we will present the new concepts for data testing, adjusted for the Romanian economy, based on Benford's law