How cyclical do cyclically-adjusted balances remain? An EU study

Observed budget balances are an imperfect indicator of the fiscal policy stance, because fluctuations in economic activity induce automatic changes in the balance, hence the use of cyclically-adjusted balances (CAB). However, this paper shows that CABs (as measured through one of the two methods currently used by the Commission) tend to be systematically overestimated during downturns and underestimated during expansions. The dominant source of this distortion arises from the filtering of revenues deemed to be cyclical, possibly signalling a problem with the computation of elasticities. The effect of the items which are assumed not to move with the cycle is non significant, but this overall result conceals offseting effects: public investment turns to be significantly procyclical and interest payments and transfers to firms are countercyclical. Classification-JEL : H6, E6.. cyclically adjusted balances, fiscal policy, EU.

Decision making with Dempster-Shafer belief structure and the OWAWA operator

[EN] A new decision making model that uses the weighted average and the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operator in the Dempster-Shafer belief structure is presented. Thus, we are able to represent the decision making problem considering objective and subjective information and the attitudinal character of the decision maker. For doing so, we use the ordered weighted averaging ¿ weighted average (OWAWA) operator. It is an aggregation operator that unifies the weighted average and the OWA in the same formulation. This approach is generalized by using quasi-arithmetic means and group decision making techniques. An application of the new approach in a group decision making problem concerning political management of a country is also developed.We would like to thank the anonymous reviewers for valuable comments that have improved the quality of the paper. Support from the Spanish Ministry of Education under project JC2009-00189 , the University of Barcelona (099311) and the European Commission (PIEFGA-2011-300062) is gratefully acknowledgedMerigó, JM.; Engemann, KJ.; Palacios Marqués, D. (2013). Decision making with Dempster-Shafer belief structure and the OWAWA operator. Technological and Economic Development of Economy. 19(sup 1):S100-S118. https://doi.org/10.3846/20294913.2013.869517SS100S11819sup 1Antuchevičienė, J., Zavadskas, E. K., & Zakarevičius, A. (2010). MULTIPLE CRITERIA CONSTRUCTION MANAGEMENT DECISIONS CONSIDERING RELATIONS BETWEEN CRITERIA / DAUGIATIKSLIAI STATYBOS VALDYMO SPRENDIMAI ATSIŽVELGIANT Į RODIKLIŲ TARPUSAVIO PRIKLAUSOMYBĘ. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 16(1), 109-125. doi:10.3846/tede.2010.07Brauers, W. K. M., & Zavadskas, E. K. (2010). PROJECT MANAGEMENT BY MULTIMOORA AS AN INSTRUMENT FOR TRANSITION ECONOMIES / PROJEKTŲ VADYBA SU MULTIMOORA KAIP PRIEMONĖ PEREINAMOJO LAIKOTARPIO ŪKIAMS. 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A weighted aggregation operators multi-attribute group decision-making method based on interval-valued trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. Expert Systems with Applications, 38(1), 1053-1060. doi:10.1016/j.eswa.2010.07.144Merigó, J. M. (2011). A unified model between the weighted average and the induced OWA operator. Expert Systems with Applications, 38(9), 11560-11572. doi:10.1016/j.eswa.2011.03.034Merigó, J. M. (2012). The probabilistic weighted average and its application in multiperson decision making. International Journal of Intelligent Systems, 27(5), 457-476. doi:10.1002/int.21531Merigó, J. M., & Casanovas, M. (2009). Induced aggregation operators in decision making with the Dempster-Shafer belief structure. International Journal of Intelligent Systems, 24(8), 934-954. doi:10.1002/int.20368Merigó, J. M., & Casanovas, M. (2010). The uncertain induced quasi-arithmetic OWA operator. International Journal of Intelligent Systems, 26(1), 1-24. doi:10.1002/int.20444MERIGÓ, J. M., & CASANOVAS, M. (2011). THE UNCERTAIN GENERALIZED OWA OPERATOR AND ITS APPLICATION TO FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING. International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making, 10(02), 211-230. doi:10.1142/s0219622011004300MERIGÓ, J. M., CASANOVAS, M., & MARTÍNEZ, L. (2010). LINGUISTIC AGGREGATION OPERATORS FOR LINGUISTIC DECISION MAKING BASED ON THE DEMPSTER-SHAFER THEORY OF EVIDENCE. International Journal of Uncertainty, Fuzziness and Knowledge-Based Systems, 18(03), 287-304. doi:10.1142/s0218488510006544MERIGO, J., & GILLAFUENTE, A. (2009). The induced generalized OWA operator. Information Sciences, 179(6), 729-741. doi:10.1016/j.ins.2008.11.013Merigó, J. M., & Gil-Lafuente, A. M. (2010). New decision-making techniques and their application in the selection of financial products. Information Sciences, 180(11), 2085-2094. doi:10.1016/j.ins.2010.01.028Merigó, J. M., & Wei, G. (2011). PROBABILISTIC AGGREGATION OPERATORS AND THEIR APPLICATION IN UNCERTAIN MULTI-PERSON DECISION-MAKING / TIKIMYBINIAI SUMAVIMO OPERATORIAI IR JŲ TAIKYMAS PRIIMANT GRUPINIUS SPRENDIMUS NEAPIBRĖŽTOJE APLINKOJE. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 17(2), 335-351. doi:10.3846/20294913.2011.584961Podvezko, V. (2009). Application of AHP technique. Journal of Business Economics and Management, 10(2), 181-189. doi:10.3846/1611-1699.2009.10.181-189Reformat, M., & Yager, R. R. (2007). Building ensemble classifiers using belief functions and OWA operators. Soft Computing, 12(6), 543-558. doi:10.1007/s00500-007-0227-2Srivastava, R. P., & Mock, T. J. (Eds.). (2002). Belief Functions in Business Decisions. Studies in Fuzziness and Soft Computing. doi:10.1007/978-3-7908-1798-0Torra, V. (1997). The weighted OWA operator. International Journal of Intelligent Systems, 12(2), 153-166. doi:10.1002/(sici)1098-111x(199702)12:23.0.co;2-pWei, G.-W. (2011). Some generalized aggregating operators with linguistic information and their application to multiple attribute group decision making. Computers & Industrial Engineering, 61(1), 32-38. doi:10.1016/j.cie.2011.02.007Wei, G., Zhao, X., & Lin, R. (2010). Some Induced Aggregating Operators with Fuzzy Number Intuitionistic Fuzzy Information and their Applications to Group Decision Making. International Journal of Computational Intelligence Systems, 3(1), 84-95. doi:10.1080/18756891.2010.9727679Xu, Z. (2005). An overview of methods for determining OWA weights. International Journal of Intelligent Systems, 20(8), 843-865. doi:10.1002/int.20097Xu, Z. (2009). A Deviation-Based Approach to Intuitionistic Fuzzy Multiple Attribute Group Decision Making. Group Decision and Negotiation, 19(1), 57-76. doi:10.1007/s10726-009-9164-zXu, Z. S., & Da, Q. L. (2003). An overview of operators for aggregating information. International Journal of Intelligent Systems, 18(9), 953-969. doi:10.1002/int.10127Yager, R. R. (1988). On ordered weighted averaging aggregation operators in multicriteria decisionmaking. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, 18(1), 183-190. doi:10.1109/21.87068YAGER, R. R. (1992). DECISION MAKING UNDER DEMPSTER-SHAFER UNCERTAINTIES. International Journal of General Systems, 20(3), 233-245. doi:10.1080/03081079208945033Yager, R. R. (1993). Families of OWA operators. Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 59(2), 125-148. doi:10.1016/0165-0114(93)90194-mYager, R. R. (1998). Including importances in OWA aggregations using fuzzy systems modeling. IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy Systems, 6(2), 286-294. doi:10.1109/91.669028Yager, R. R. (2004). Generalized OWA Aggregation Operators. Fuzzy Optimization and Decision Making, 3(1), 93-107. doi:10.1023/b:fodm.0000013074.68765.97Yager, R. R., Engemann, K. J., & Filev, D. P. (1995). On the concept of immediate probabilities. 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CONTRACTOR SELECTION FOR CONSTRUCTION WORKS BY APPLYING SAW‐G AND TOPSIS GREY TECHNIQUES. Journal of Business Economics and Management, 11(1), 34-55. doi:10.3846/jbem.2010.03Zeng, S., & Su, W. (2011). Intuitionistic fuzzy ordered weighted distance operator. Knowledge-Based Systems, 24(8), 1224-1232. doi:10.1016/j.knosys.2011.05.013Zhang, X., & Liu, P. (2010). METHOD FOR AGGREGATING TRIANGULAR FUZZY INTUITIONISTIC FUZZY INFORMATION AND ITS APPLICATION TO DECISION MAKING / NUMANOMŲ NEAPIBRĖŽTŲJŲ AIBIŲ TEORIJA IR JOS TAIKYMAS PRIIMANT SPRENDIMUS. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 16(2), 280-290. doi:10.3846/tede.2010.18Zhao, H., Xu, Z., Ni, M., & Liu, S. (2010). Generalized aggregation operators for intuitionistic fuzzy sets. International Journal of Intelligent Systems, 25(1), 1-30. doi:10.1002/int.20386Zhou, L.-G., & Chen, H. (2010). Generalized ordered weighted logarithm aggregation operators and their applications to group decision making. 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Uncertain generalized aggregation operators. Expert Systems with Applications, 39(1), 1105-1117. doi:10.1016/j.eswa.2011.07.11

Structure Adaptation in Stochastic Inverse Methods for Integrating Information

[EN] The use of inverse modeling techniques has greatly increased during the past several years because the advances in numerical modeling and increased computing power. Most of these methods require an a priori definition of the stochastic structure of conductivity (K) fields that is inferred only from K measurements. Therefore, the additional conditioning data, that implicitly integrate information not captured by K data, might lead to changes in the a priori model. Different inverse methods allow different degrees of structure adaptation to the whole set of data during the conditioning procedure. This paper illustrates the application of a powerful stochastic inverse method, the Gradual Conditioning (GC) method, to two different sets of data, both non-multiGaussian. One is based on a 2D synthetic aquifer and another on a real-complex case study, the Macrodispersion Experiment (MADE-2), site on Columbus Air Force Base in Mississippi (USA). We have analyzed how additional data change the a priori model on account of the perturbations performed when constraining stochastic simulations to data. Results show how the GC method tends to honour the a priori model in the synthetic case, showing fluctuations around it for the different simulated fields. However, in the 3D real case study, it is shown how the a priori structure is slightly modified not obeying just to fluctuations but possibly to the effect of the additional information on K, implicit in piezometric and concentration data. We conclude that implementing inversion methods able to yield a posteriori structure that incorporate more data might be of great importance in real cases in order to reduce uncertainty and to deal with risk assessment projects.Llopis Albert, C.; Merigó, JM.; Palacios Marqués, D. (2015). Structure Adaptation in Stochastic Inverse Methods for Integrating Information. Water Resources Management. 29(1):95-107. doi:10.1007/s11269-014-0829-2S95107291Abolverdi J, Khalili D (2010) Development of regional rainfall annual maxima for Southwestern Iran by LMoments. Water Resour Manag 24(11):2501–2526Adams EE, Gelhar LW (1992) Field study of dispersion in a heterogeneous aquifer 2. Spatial moments analysis. Water Resour Res 28(12):3293–3307Boggs JM, Adams EE (1992) Field study of dispersion in a heterogeneous aquifer. 4. Investigation of adsorption and sampling bias. Water Resour Res 28(12):3325–3336Boggs JM, Young SC, Beard LM (1992) Field study of dispersion in a heterogeneous aquifer. 1. Overview and site description. Water Resour Res 28(12):3281–3291Caers J (2007) Comparing the gradual deformation with the probability perturbation method for solving inverse problems. Math Geol 39(1). doi:10.1007/s11004-006-9064-6Capilla JE, Llopis-Albert C (2009) Gradual conditioning of non-Gaussian transmissivity fields to flow and mass transport data: 1. Theory. J Hydrol 371:66–74Carrera J, Alcolea A, Medina A, Hidalgo J, Slooten LJ (2005) Inverse problem in hydrogeology. J Hydrogeol 13:206–222Charalambous J, Rahman A, Carroll D (2013) Application of Monte Carlo simulation technique to design flood estimation: a case study for North Johnstone River in Queensland, Australia. Water Resour Manag 27:4099–4111. doi: 10.1007/s11269-013-0398-9De Marsily G, Delhomme JP, Coudrain-Ribstein A, Lavenue AM (2000) Four decades of inverse problems in hydrogeology. Geol Soc Am (Special Paper 348)Doherty J (1994) PEST: Corinda, Australia. Watermark Computing, 122 pGómez-Hernández JJ, Srivastava RM (1990) ISIM3D: An ANSI-C three dimensional multiple indicator conditional simulation program. Comput Geosci 16(4):395–440Gómez-Hernández JJ, Wen XH (1998) To be or not to be multiGaussian? A reflection on stochastic hydrogeology. Adv Water Resour 21(1):47–61Gómez-Hernández JJ, Sahuquillo A, Capilla JE (1997) Stochastic simulation of transmissivity fields conditional to both transmissivity and piezometric data. 1. Theory. J Hydrol 203:162–174Hu LY (2000) Gradual deformation and iterative calibration of gaussian-related stochastic models. Math Geol 32(1):87–108Llopis-Albert C, Capilla JE (2009a) Gradual conditioning of non-gaussian transmissivity fields to flow and mass transport Data: 3. Application to the Macrodispersion experiment (MADE-2) site, on Columbus air force base in Mississippi (USA). J Hydrol 371:75–84Llopis-Albert C, Capilla JE (2009b) Gradual conditioning of non-Gaussian transmissivity fields to flow and mass transport data: 2. Demonstration on a synthetic aquifer. J Hydrol 371:53–65Llopis-Albert C, Capilla JE (2010a) Stochastic inverse modeling of hydraulic conductivity fields taking into account independent stochastic structures: a 3D case study. J Hydrol 391:277–288Llopis-Albert C, Capilla JE (2010b) Stochastic simulation of non-Gaussian 3D conductivity fields in a fractured medium with multiple statistical populations: a case study. J Hydrol Eng 15(7):554–566Llopis-Albert C., Capilla JE (2011) Change of the a priori stochastic structure in the conditional simulation of transmissivity fields. P.M. Atkinson and C.D. Lloyd (eds.), geoENV VII – Geostatistics for Environmental Applications, Quant Geol Geostat 16. Springer. ISBN: 9048123216Llopis-Albert C, Palacios-Marqués D, Merigó JM (2014) A coupled stochastic inverse-management framework for dealing with nonpoint agriculture pollution under groundwater parameter uncertainty. J Hydrol 511:10–16. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.01.021McLaughlin D, Townley LR (1996) A reassessment of the groundwater inverse problem. 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Stably stratified Taylor-Couette flows

Stably stratified Taylor–Couette flow has attracted much attention due to its relevance as a canonical example of the interplay among rotation, stable stratification, shear and container boundaries, as well as its potential applications in geophysics and astrophysics. In this article, we review the current knowledge on this topic, highlight unanswered questions and propose directions for future research. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Taylor–Couette and related flows on the centennial of Taylor’s seminal Philosophical Transactions paper (part 2)’.Postprint (author's final draft

Methodology and model-based DSS to managing the reallocation of inventory to orders in LHP situations. Application to the ceramics sector

[EN] Lack of homogeneity in the product (LHP) is a problem when customers require homogeneous units of a single product. In such cases, the optimal allocation of inventory to orders becomes much more complex. Furthermore, in an MTS environment, an optimal initial allocation may become less than ideal over time, due to different circumstances. This problem occurs in the ceramics sector, where the final product varies in tone and calibre. This paper proposes a methodology for the reallocation of inventory to orders in LHP situation (MERIO-LHP) and a model-based decision-support system (DSS) to support the methodology, which enables an optimal reallocation of inventory to order lines to be carried out in real businesses environments in which LHP is inherent. The proposed methodology and model-based DSS were validated by applying it to a real case at a ceramics company. The analysis of the results indicates that considerable improvements can be obtained with regard to the quantity of orders fulfilled and sales turnover.Oltra Badenes, RF.; Gil Gómez, H.; Merigó, JM.; Palacios Marqués, D. (2019). Methodology and model-based DSS to managing the reallocation of inventory to orders in LHP situations. Application to the ceramics sector. PLoS ONE. 14(7):1-19. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0219433S119147Alarcón, F., Alemany, M. M. E., Lario, F. C., & Oltra, R. F. (2011). La falta de homogeneidad del producto (FHP) en las empresas cerámicas y su impacto en la reasignación del inventario. Boletín de la Sociedad Española de Cerámica y Vidrio, 50(1), 49-58. doi:10.3989/cyv.072011Wanke, P., Alvarenga, H., Correa, H., Hadi-Vencheh, A., & Azad, M. A. K. (2017). Fuzzy inference systems and inventory allocation decisions: Exploring the impact of priority rules on total costs and service levels. 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Expert Systems with Applications, 41(1), 39-49. doi:10.1016/j.eswa.2013.07.009Protopappa-Sieke, M., Sieke, M. A., & Thonemann, U. W. (2016). Optimal two-period inventory allocation under multiple service level contracts. European Journal of Operational Research, 252(1), 145-155. doi:10.1016/j.ejor.2016.01.013Luo, K., Bollapragada, R., & Kerbache, L. (2017). Inventory allocation models for a two-stage, two-product, capacitated supplier and retailer problem with random demand. International Journal of Production Economics, 187, 168-181. doi:10.1016/j.ijpe.2016.12.014Zhao, H., Huang, E., Dou, R., & Wu, K. (2019). A multi-objective production planning problem with the consideration of time and cost in clinical trials. Expert Systems with Applications, 124, 25-38. doi:10.1016/j.eswa.2019.01.038Kang, K., Pu, W., Ma, Y., & Wang, X. (2018). Bi-objective inventory allocation planning problem with supplier selection and carbon trading under uncertainty. 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P73 plays a role in erythroid differentiaion through GATA1 induction

The TP73 gene gives rise to transactivation domain-p73 isoforms (TAp73) as well as ΔNp73 variants with a truncated N terminus. Although TAp73α and -Β proteins are capable of inducing cell cycle arrest, apoptosis, and differentiation, ΔNp73 acts in many cell types as a dominant-negative repressor of p53 and TAp73. It has been proposed that p73 is involved in myeloid differentiation, and its altered expression is involved in leukemic degeneration. However, there is little evidence as to which p73 variants (TA or ΔN) are expressed during differentiation and whether specific p73 isoforms have the capacity to induce, or hinder, this differentiation in leukemia cells. In this study we identify GATA1 as a direct transcriptional target of TAp73α. Furthermore, TAp73α induces GATA1 activity, and it is required for erythroid differentiation. Additionally, we describe a functional cooperation between TAp73 and ΔNp73 in the context of erythroid differentiation in human myeloid cells, K562 and UT-7. Moreover, the impaired expression of GATA1 and other erythroid genes in the liver of p73KO embryos, together with the moderated anemia observed in p73KO young mice, suggests a physiological role for TP73 in erythropoiesis.Peer reviewe

Amino-acid-based surfactants: New antimicrobial agents

The rapid increase of drug resistant bacteria makes necessary the development of new antimicrobial agents. Synthetic amino acid-based surfactants constitute a promising alternative to conventional antimicrobial compounds given that they can be prepared from renewable raw materials. In this review, we discuss the structural features that promote antimicrobial activity of amino acid-based surfactants. Monocatenary, dicatenary and gemini surfactants that contain different amino acids on the polar head and show activity against bacteria are revised. The synthesis and basic physico-chemical properties have also been included

Removal of paracetamol on biomass-derived activated carbon: Modeling the fixed bed breakthrough curves using batch adsorption experiments

The remediation of paracetamol (PA), an emerging contaminant frequently found in wastewater treatment plants, has been studied in the low concentration range (0.3–10 mg L−1) using as adsorbent a biomass-derived activated carbon. PA uptake of up to 100 mg g−1 over the activated carbon has been obtained, with the adsorption isotherms being fairly explained by the Langmuir model. The application of Reichemberg and the Vermeulen equations to the batch kinetics experiments allowed estimating homogeneous and heterogeneous diffusion coefficients, reflecting the dependence of diffusion with the surface coverage of PA. A series of rapid small-scale column tests were carried out to determine the breakthrough curves under different operational conditions (temperature, PA concentration, flow rate, bed length). The suitability of the proposed adsorbent for the remediation of PA in fixed-bed adsorption was proven by the high PA adsorption capacity along with the fast adsorption and the reduced height of the mass transfer zone of the columns. We have demonstrated that, thanks to the use of the heterogeneous diffusion coefficient, the proposed mathematical approach for the numerical solution to the mass balance of the column provides a reliable description of the breakthrough profiles and the design parameters, being much more accurate than models based in the classical linear driving force.We gratefully thank Junta de Andalucía (P09-FQM-5156) and Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (MINECO – Spain) (Project CTQ2012-36408) and Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional (FEDER – Spain) for financial support

The influence of ACE ID and ACTN3 R577X polymorphisms on lower-extremity function in older women in response to high-speed power training

Background: We studied the influence of the ACE I/D and ACTN3 R577X polymorphisms (single or combined) on lower-extremity function in older women in response to high-speed power training. Methods: One hundred and thirty-nine healthy older Caucasian women participated in this study (age: 65.5 ± 8.2 years, body mass: 67.0 ± 10.0 kg and height: 1.57 ± 0.06 m). Walking speed (S10) performance and functional capacity assessed by the “get-up and go” (GUG) mobility test were measured at baseline (T1) and after a consecutive 12-week period of high-speed power training (40-75% of one repetition maximum in arm and leg extensor exercises; 3 sets 4–12 reps, and two power exercises for upper and lower extremity). Genomic DNA was extracted from blood samples, and genotyping analyses were performed by PCR methods. Genotype distributions between groups were compared by Chi-Square test and the gains in physical performance were analyzed by two-way, repeated-measures ANOVA. Results: There were no significant differences between genotype groups in men or women for adjusted baseline phenotypes (P > 0.05). ACE I/D and ACTN3 polymorphisms showed a significant interaction genotype-training only in S10 (P = 0.012 and P = 0.044, respectively) and not in the GUG test (P = 0.311 and P = 0.477, respectively). Analyses of the combined effects between genotypes showed no other significant differences in all phenotypes (P < 0.05) at baseline. However, in response to high-speed power training, a significant interaction on walking speed (P = 0.048) was observed between the “power” (ACTN3 RR + RX & ACE DD) versus “non-power” muscularity-oriented genotypes (ACTN3 XX & ACE II + ID)]. Conclusions: Thus, ACE I/D and ACTN3 R577X polymorphisms are likely candidates in the modulation of exercise-related gait speed phenotype in older women but not a significant influence in mobility traits.The study was developed with the aid of a research fellowship, reference number SFRH/BD/47114/2008, funded by POPH – QREN, shared by the European Social Fund and the national funds of MCTES. This work was supported in part by the Spanish Department of Health and Institute Carlos III of the Government of Spain [Spanish Net on Aging and frailty; (RETICEF)] and Economy and Competitivity Department of the Government of Spain, under grants numbered RD12/043/0002, and DEP2011-24105, respectively

Lichenysin-geminal amino acid-based surfactants: Synergistic action of an unconventional antimicrobial mixture

Recently it has been demonstrated that catanionic mixtures of oppositely charged surfactants have improved physicochemical-biological properties compared to the individual components. Isotherms of mixtures of an anionic biosurfactant (lichenysin) and a cationic aminoacid surfactant (C-3(LA)(2)) indicate a strong interaction suggesting the formation of a new 'pseudo-surfactant'. The antimicrobial properties of the mixture lichenysin and C-3(LA)(2) M80:20, indicate a synergistic effect of the components. The mechanism of action on the bacterial envelope was assessed by flow cytometry and Transmission Electron Microscopy. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. Keywords: Antimicrobial properties; Arginine; Escherichia coli; Flow cytometry; Gemini surfactants; Lichenysin; Listeria nonocytogenes; Potassium leakage; Transmission electron microscopy