The Challenge of Machine Learning in Space Weather Nowcasting and Forecasting

The numerous recent breakthroughs in machine learning (ML) make imperative to carefully ponder how the scientific community can benefit from a technology that, although not necessarily new, is today living its golden age. This Grand Challenge review paper is focused on the present and future role of machine learning in space weather. The purpose is twofold. On one hand, we will discuss previous works that use ML for space weather forecasting, focusing in particular on the few areas that have seen most activity: the forecasting of geomagnetic indices, of relativistic electrons at geosynchronous orbits, of solar flares occurrence, of coronal mass ejection propagation time, and of solar wind speed. On the other hand, this paper serves as a gentle introduction to the field of machine learning tailored to the space weather community and as a pointer to a number of open challenges that we believe the community should undertake in the next decade. The recurring themes throughout the review are the need to shift our forecasting paradigm to a probabilistic approach focused on the reliable assessment of uncertainties, and the combination of physics-based and machine learning approaches, known as gray-box.Comment: under revie

The Solar Spectrum in the Atacama Desert

The Atacama Desert has been pointed out as one of the places on earth where the highest surface irradiance may occur. This area is characterized by its high altitude, prevalent cloudless conditions and relatively low columns of ozone and water vapor. Aimed at the characterization of the solar spectrum in the Atacama Desert, we carried out in February-March 2015 ground-based measurements of the spectral irradiance (from the ultraviolet to the near infrared) at seven locations that ranged from the city of Antofagasta (on the southern pacific coastline) to the Chajnantor Plateau (5,100 m altitude). Our spectral measurements allowed us to retrieve the total ozone column, the precipitable water, and the aerosol properties at each location. We found that changes in these parameters, as well as the shorter optical path length at high-altitude locations, lead to significant increases in the surface irradiance with the altitude. Our measurements show that, in the range 0?5100 m altitude, surface irradiance increases with the altitude by about 27% in the infrared range, 6% in the visible range, and 20% in the ultraviolet range. Spectral measurements carried out at the Iza?a Observatory (Tenerife, Spain), in Hannover (Germany) and in Santiago (Chile), were used for further comparisons

Role of thermodynamic and turbulence processes on the fog life cycle during SOFOG3D experiment

In this study, we use a synergy of in situ and remote sensing measurements collected during the SOuthwest FOGs 3D experiment for processes study (SOFOG3D) field campaign in autumn and winter 2019–2020 to analyse the thermodynamic and turbulent processes related to fog formation, evolution, and dissipation across southwestern France. Based on a unique measurement dataset (synergy of cloud radar, microwave radiometer, wind lidar, and weather station data) combined with a fog conceptual model, an analysis of the four deepest fog episodes (two radiation fogs and two advection–radiation fogs) is conducted. The results show that radiation and advection–radiation fogs form under deep and thin temperature inversions, respectively. For both fog categories, the transition period from stable to adiabatic fog and the fog adiabatic phase are driven by vertical mixing associated with an increase in turbulence in the fog layer due to mechanical production (turbulence kinetic energy (TKE) up to 0.4 m2 s−2 and vertical velocity variance (σw2) up to 0.04 m2 s−2) generated by increasing wind and wind shear. Our study reveals that fog liquid water path, fog top height, temperature, radar reflectivity profiles, and fog adiabaticity derived from the conceptual model evolve in a consistent manner to clearly characterise this transition. The dissipation time is observed at night for the advection–radiation fog case studies and after sunrise for the radiation fog case studies. Night-time dissipation is driven by horizontal advection generating mechanical turbulence (TKE at least 0.3 m2 s−2 and σw2 larger than 0.04 m2 s−2). Daytime dissipation is linked to the combination of thermal and mechanical turbulence related to solar heating (near-surface sensible heat flux larger than 10 W m−2) and wind shear, respectively. This study demonstrates the added value of monitoring fog liquid water content and depth (combined with wind, turbulence, and temperature profiles) and diagnostics such as fog liquid water reservoir and adiabaticity to better explain the drivers of the fog life cycle.</p

Unexpected population fragmentation in an endangered seabird: the case of the Peruvian diving-petrel

In less than one century, the once-abundant Peruvian diving petrel has become the first endangered seabird of the Humboldt Current System (HCS). This small endemic petrel of the South American Pacific coast is now an important indicator of ongoing habitat loss and of the success of local conservation policies in the HCS - an ecoregion designated as a priority for the conservation of global biodiversity. Yet so far, poorly understood life history traits such as philopatry or dispersal ability may strongly influence the species' response to ecosystem changes, but also our capacity to assess and interpret this response. To address this question, we explore the range-wide population structure of the Peruvian diving petrel, and show that this small seabird exhibits extreme philopatric behavior at the island level. Mitochondrial DNA sequences and genome-wide SNP data reveal significant isolation and low migration at very short distances, and provide strong evidence for questioning the alleged recovery in the Peruvian and Chilean populations of this species. Importantly, the full demographic independence between colonies makes local population rescue through migration unlikely. As a consequence, the Peruvian diving petrel appears to be particularly vulnerable to ongoing anthropogenic pressure. By excluding immigration as a major factor of demographic recovery, our results highlight the unambiguously positive impact of local conservation measures on breeding populations; yet at the same time they also cast doubt on alleged range-wide positive population trends. Overall, the protection of independent breeding colonies, and not only of the species as a whole, remains a major element in the conservation strategy for endemic seabirds. Finally, we underline the importance of considering the philopatric behavior and demographic independence of breeding populations, even at very fine spatial scales, in spatial planning for marine coastal areas

Orthostatic headache and bilateral abducens palsy secondary to spontaneous intracranial hypotension

Spontaneous intracranial hypotension (SIH) is a well-documented syndrome characterized typically by a benign, self-limited course. Patients typically present with postural or exertional headaches that can be temporarily relieved by lying in a supine or recumbent position. A 35-year-old Caucasian male suffered orthostatic headache that developed to a bilateral abducens palsy. We ordered relative rest and the patient improved and completely recovered after 3 months. Although SIH is considered as a benign and self limited process it could also be associated with disabling complications. We should be aware of the possible complications and inform our patients. SIH can present with headache and bilateral abducens palsy even when the headache is improving

Methodological Guidelines for Engineering Self-organization and Emergence

The ASCENS project deals with the design and development of complex self-adaptive systems, where self-organization is one of the possible means by which to achieve self-adaptation. However, to support the development of self-organising systems, one has to extensively re-situate their engineering from a software architectures and requirements point of view. In particular, in this chapter, we highlight the importance of the decomposition in components to go from the problem to the engineered solution. This leads us to explain and rationalise the following architectural strategy: designing by following the problem organisation. We discuss architectural advantages for development and documentation, and its coherence with existing methodological approaches to self-organisation, and we illustrate the approach with an example on the area of swarm robotics

Effectiveness and safety of obeticholic acid in a Southern European multicenter cohort of patients with primary biliary cholangitis and suboptimal response to ursodeoxycholic acid

Background Obeticholic acid (OCA) was recently approved as the only on-label alternative for patients with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) with intolerance or suboptimal response to ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA). However, few data are available outside clinical trials. Aim To assess the effectiveness and safety of OCA in a real-world cohort of patients with non-effective UDCA therapy. Methods Open-label, prospective, real-world, multicentre study, enrolling consecutive patients who did not meet Paris II criteria, from 18 institutions in Spain and Portugal. Effectiveness was assessed by the changes in GLOBE and UK-PBC scores from baseline. POISE and Paris II criteria were evaluated after 12 months of OCA . Liver fibrosis was evaluated by FIB-4 and AST to platelet ratio index (APRI). Results One hundred and twenty patients were eligible, median time since PBC diagnosis 9.3 (4.0-13.8) years, 21.7% had cirrhosis, and 26.7% received had previous or concomitant treatment with fibrates. Seventy-eight patients completed at least 1 year of OCA. The Globe-PBC score decreased to 0.17 (95% CI 0.05 to 0.28; P = 0.005) and the UK-PBC score decreased to 0.81 (95% CI -0.19 to 1.80; P = 0.11). There was a significant decrease in alkaline phosphatase of 81.3 U/L (95% CI 42.5 to 120; P < 0.001), ALT 22.1 U/L (95% CI 10.4 to 33.8; P < 0.001) and bilirubin 0.12 mg/dL (95% CI 0 to 0.24; P = 0.044). FIB-4 and APRI remained stable. According to the POISE criteria, 29.5% (23 out of 78) achieved response. The adverse events rate was 35%; 11.67% discontinued (8.3% due to pruritus). Conclusions This study supports data from phase III trials with significant improvement of PBC-Globe continuous prognostic marker score among OCA-treated patients with good tolerability

Evaluation of receptor and chemical transport models for PM10 source apportionment

In this study, the performance of two types of source apportionment models was evaluated by assessing the results provided by 40 different groups in the framework of an intercomparison organised by FAIRMODE WG3 (Forum for air quality modelling in Europe, Working Group 3). The evaluation was based on two performance indicators: z-scores and the root mean square error weighted by the reference uncertainty (RMSEu), with pre-established acceptability criteria. By involving models based on completely different and independent input data, such as receptor models (RMs) and chemical transport models (CTMs), the intercomparison provided a unique opportunity for their cross-validation. In addition, comparing the CTM chemical profiles with those measured directly at the source contributed to corroborate the consistency of the tested model results. The most commonly used RM was the US EPA- PMF version 5. RMs showed very good performance for the overall dataset (91% of z-scores accepted) while more difficulties were observed with the source contribution time series (72% of RMSEu accepted). Industrial activities proved to be the most difficult sources to be quantified by RMs, with high variability in the estimated contributions. In the CTMs, the sum of computed source contributions was lower than the measured gravimetric PM10 mass concentrations. The performance tests pointed out the differences between the two CTM approaches used for source apportionment in this study: brute force (or emission reduction impact) and tagged species methods. The sources meeting the z-score and RMSEu acceptability criteria tests were 50% and 86%, respectively. The CTM source contributions to PM10 were in the majority of cases lower than the RM averages for the corresponding source. The CTMs and RMs source contributions for the overall dataset were more comparable (83% of the z-scores accepted) than their time series (successful RMSEu in the range 25% - 34%). The comparability between CTMs and RMs varied depending on the source: traffic/exhaust and industry were the source categories with the best results in the RMSEu tests while the most critical ones were soil dust and road dust. The differences between RMs and CTMs source reconstructions confirmed the importance of cross validating the results of these two families of models

Development and Validation of Hepamet Fibrosis Scoring System-a Simple, Non-invasive Test to Identify Patients With Nonalcoholic Fatty liver Disease With Advanced Fibrosis

BACKGROUND &amp; AIMS: Fibrosis affects prognoses for patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Several non-invasive scoring systems have aimed to identify patients at risk for advanced fibrosis, but inconclusive results and variations in features of patients (diabetes, obesity and older age) reduce their diagnostic accuracy. We sought to develop a scoring system based on serum markers to identify patients with NAFLD at risk for advanced fibrosis. METHODS: We collected data from 2452 patients with NAFLD at medical centers in Italy, France, Cuba, and China. We developed the Hepamet fibrosis scoring system using demographic, anthropometric, and laboratory test data, collected at time of liver biopsy, from a training cohort of patients from Spain (n=768) and validated the system using patients from Cuba (n=344), Italy (n=288), France (n=830), and China (n=232). Hepamet fibrosis score (HFS) were compared with those of previously developed fibrosis scoring systems (the NAFLD fibrosis score [NFS] and FIB-4). The diagnostic accuracy of the Hepamet fibrosis scoring system was assessed based on area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve, sensitivity, specificity, diagnostic odds ratio, and positive and negative predictive values and likelihood ratios. RESULTS: Variables used to determine HFS were patient sex, age, homeostatic model assessment score, presence of diabetes, levels of aspartate aminotransferase, and albumin, and platelet counts; these were independently associated with advanced fibrosis. HFS discriminated between patients with and without advanced fibrosis with an AUROC curve value of 0.85 whereas NFS or FIB-4 did so with AUROC values of 0.80 (P=.0001). In the validation set, cut-off HFS of 0.12 and 0.47 identified patients with and without advanced fibrosis with 97.2% specificity, 74% sensitivity, a 92% negative predictive value, a 76.3% positive predictive value, a 13.22 positive likelihood ratio, and a 0.31 negative likelihood ratio. HFS were not affected by patient age, body mass index, hypertransaminasemia, or diabetes. The Hepamet fibrosis scoring system had the greatest net benefit in identifying patients who should undergo liver biopsy analysis and led to significant improvements in reclassification, reducing the number of patients with undetermined results to 20% from 30% for the FIB-4 and NFS systems (P&lt;.05). CONCLUSIONS: Using clinical and laboratory data from patients with NAFLD, we developed and validated the Hepamet fibrosis scoring system, which identified patients with advanced fibrosis with greater accuracy than the FIB-4 and NFS systems. the Hepamet system provides a greater net benefit for the decision-making process to identify patients who should undergo liver biopsy analysis

Longitudinal outcomes of obeticholic acid therapy in ursodiol-nonresponsive primary biliary cholangitis: Stratifying the impact of add-on fibrates in real-world practice

Background Suboptimal response to ursodeoxycholic acid occurs in 40% of primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) patients, affecting survival. Achieving a deep response (normalisation of alkaline phosphatase [ALP] and bilirubin ≤0.6 upper limit of normal) improves survival. Yet, the long-term effectiveness of second-line treatments remains uncertain. Aims To evaluate the long-term effectiveness of obeticholic acid (OCA) ± fibrates. Focusing on biochemical response (ALP ≤1.67 times the upper limit of normal, with a decrease of at least 15% from baseline and normal bilirubin levels), normalisation of ALP, deep response and biochemical remission (deep response plus aminotransferase normalisation). Methods We conducted a longitudinal, observational, multicentre study involving ursodeoxyccholic acid non-responsive PBC patients (Paris-II criteria) from Spain and Portugal who received OCA ± fibrates. Results Of 255 patients, median follow-up was 35.1 months (IQR: 20.2–53). The biochemical response in the whole cohort was 47.2%, 61.4% and 68.6% at 12, 24 and 36 months. GLOBE-PBC and 5-year UK-PBC scores improved (p < 0.001). Triple therapy (ursodeoxycholic acid plus OCA plus fibrates) had significantly higher response rates than dual therapy (p = 0.001), including ALP normalisation, deep response and biochemical remission (p < 0.001). In multivariate analysis, triple therapy remained independently associated with biochemical response (p = 0.024), alkaline phosphatase normalisation, deep response and biochemical remission (p < 0.001). Adverse effects occurred in 41.2% of cases, leading to 18.8% discontinuing OCA. Out of 55 patients with cirrhosis, 12 developed decompensation. All with baseline portal hypertension. Conclusion Triple therapy was superior in achieving therapeutic goals in UDCA-nonresponsive PBC. Decompensation was linked to pre-existing portal hypertension