Heuristics and Biases in the Intuitive Projection of Retail Sales

Retail merchandise buyers are shown to exhibit a nonregressive bias when making sales projections. A quantitative model based on the principle of statistical regression is found to outperform the judgmental sales predictions of experienced buyers. Implications for the appropriate roles of intuitive and model-based decision making in retail merchandise buying are discussed

Adjacent Slice Prostate Cancer Prediction to Inform MALDI Imaging Biomarker Analysis

Prostate cancer is the second most common type of cancer among men in US [1]. Traditionally, prostate cancer diagnosis is made by the analysis of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels and histopathological images of biopsy samples under microscopes. Proteomic biomarkers can improve upon these methods. MALDI molecular spectra imaging is used to visualize protein/peptide concentrations across biopsy samples to search for biomarker candidates. Unfortunately, traditional processing methods require histopathological examination on one slice of a biopsy sample while the adjacent slice is subjected to the tissue destroying desorption and ionization processes of MALDI. The highest confidence tumor regions gained from the histopathological analysis are then mapped to the MALDI spectra data to estimate the regions for biomarker identification from the MALDI imaging. This paper describes a process to provide a significantly better estimate of the cancer tumor to be mapped onto the MALDI imaging spectra coordinates using the high confidence region to predict the true area of the tumor on the adjacent MALDI imaged slice

Prevalence of Disorders Recorded in Dogs Attending Primary-Care Veterinary Practices in England

Purebred dog health is thought to be compromised by an increasing occurence of inherited diseases but inadequate prevalence data on common disorders have hampered efforts to prioritise health reforms. Analysis of primary veterinary practice clinical data has been proposed for reliable estimation of disorder prevalence in dogs. Electronic patient record (EPR) data were collected on 148,741 dogs attending 93 clinics across central and south-eastern England. Analysis in detail of a random sample of EPRs relating to 3,884 dogs from 89 clinics identified the most frequently recorded disorders as otitis externa (prevalence 10.2%, 95% CI: 9.1-11.3), periodontal disease (9.3%, 95% CI: 8.3-10.3) and anal sac impaction (7.1%, 95% CI: 6.1-8.1). Using syndromic classification, the most prevalent body location affected was the head-and-neck (32.8%, 95% CI: 30.7-34.9), the most prevalent organ system affected was the integument (36.3%, 95% CI: 33.9-38.6) and the most prevalent pathophysiologic process diagnosed was inflammation (32.1%, 95% CI: 29.8-34.3). Among the twenty most-frequently recorded disorders, purebred dogs had a significantly higher prevalence compared with crossbreds for three: otitis externa (P = 0.001), obesity (P = 0.006) and skin mass lesion (P = 0.033), and popular breeds differed significantly from each other in their prevalence for five: periodontal disease (P = 0.002), overgrown nails (P = 0.004), degenerative joint disease (P = 0.005), obesity (P = 0.001) and lipoma (P = 0.003). These results fill a crucial data gap in disorder prevalence information and assist with disorder prioritisation. The results suggest that, for maximal impact, breeding reforms should target commonly-diagnosed complex disorders that are amenable to genetic improvement and should place special focus on at-risk breeds. Future studies evaluating disorder severity and duration will augment the usefulness of the disorder prevalence information reported herein

Measurement of the Branching Fraction for B- --> D0 K*-

We present a measurement of the branching fraction for the decay B- --> D0 K*- using a sample of approximately 86 million BBbar pairs collected by the BaBar detector from e+e- collisions near the Y(4S) resonance. The D0 is detected through its decays to K- pi+, K- pi+ pi0 and K- pi+ pi- pi+, and the K*- through its decay to K0S pi-. We measure the branching fraction to be B.F.(B- --> D0 K*-)= (6.3 +/- 0.7(stat.) +/- 0.5(syst.)) x 10^{-4}.Comment: 7 pages, 1 postscript figure, submitted to Phys. Rev. D (Rapid Communications

Measurement of the B+ --> p pbar K+ Branching Fraction and Study of the Decay Dynamics

With a sample of 232x10^6 Upsilon(4S) --> BBbar events collected with the BaBar detector, we study the decay B+ --> p pbar K+ excluding charmonium decays to ppbar. We measure a branching fraction Br(B+ --> p pbar K+)=(6.7+/-0.5+/-0.4)x10^{-6}. An enhancement at low ppbar mass is observed and the Dalitz plot asymmetry suggests dominance of the penguin amplitude in this B decay. We search for a pentaquark candidate Theta*++ decaying into pK+ in the mass range 1.43 to 2.00 GeV/c2 and set limits on Br(B+ --> Theta*++pbar)xBr(Theta*++ --> pK+) at the 10^{-7} level.Comment: 8 pages, 7 postscript figures, submitted to Phys. Rev. D (Rapid Communications

Not the End of the World? Post-Classical Decline and Recovery in Rural Anatolia

Between the foundation of Constantinople as capital of the eastern half of the Roman Empire in 330 CE and its sack by the Fourth Crusade in 1204 CE, the Byzantine Empire underwent a full cycle from political-economic stability, through rural insecurity and agrarian decline, and back to renewed prosperity. These stages plausibly correspond to the phases of over-extension (K), subsequent release (Ω) and recovery (α) of the Adaptive Cycle in Socio-Ecological Systems. Here we track and partly quantify the consequences of those changes in different regions of Anatolia, firstly for rural settlement (via regional archaeological surveys) and secondly for land cover (via pollen analysis). We also examine the impact of climate changes on the agrarian system. While individual histories vary, the archaeological record shows a major demographic decline between ca .650 and ca. 900 CE in central and southwestern Anatolia, which was then a frontier zone between Byzantine and Arab armies. In these regions, and also in northwest Anatolia, century-scale trends in pollen indicate a substantial decline in the production of cereal and tree crops, and a smaller decline in pastoral activity. During the subsequent recovery (α) phase after 900 CE there was strong regional differentiation, with central Anatolia moving to a new economic system based on agro-pastoralism, while lowland areas of northern and western Anatolia returned to the cultivation of commercial crops such as olive trees. The extent of recovery in the agrarian economy was broadly predictable by the magnitude of its preceding decline, but the trajectories of recovery varied between different regions

Measurement of Branching Fraction and Dalitz Distribution for B0->D(*)+/- K0 pi-/+ Decays

We present measurements of the branching fractions for the three-body decays B0 -> D(*)-/+ K0 pi^+/-$and their resonant submodes$B0 -> D(*)-/+ K*+/- using a sample of approximately 88 million BBbar pairs collected by the BABAR detector at the PEP-II asymmetric energy storage ring. We measure: B(B0->D-/+ K0 pi+/-)=(4.9 +/- 0.7(stat) +/- 0.5 (syst)) 10^{-4} B(B0->D*-/+ K0 pi+/-)=(3.0 +/- 0.7(stat) +/- 0.3 (syst)) 10^{-4} B(B0->D-/+ K*+/-)=(4.6 +/- 0.6(stat) +/- 0.5 (syst)) 10^{-4} B(B0->D*-/+ K*+/-)=(3.2 +/- 0.6(stat) +/- 0.3 (syst)) 10^{-4} From these measurements we determine the fractions of resonant events to be : f(B0-> D-/+ K*+/-) = 0.63 +/- 0.08(stat) +/- 0.04(syst) f(B0-> D*-/+ K*+/-) = 0.72 +/- 0.14(stat) +/- 0.05(syst)Comment: 7 pages, 3 figures submitted to Phys. Rev. Let

Measurement of the quasi-elastic axial vector mass in neutrino-oxygen interactions

The weak nucleon axial-vector form factor for quasi-elastic interactions is determined using neutrino interaction data from the K2K Scintillating Fiber detector in the neutrino beam at KEK. More than 12,000 events are analyzed, of which half are charged-current quasi-elastic interactions nu-mu n to mu- p occurring primarily in oxygen nuclei. We use a relativistic Fermi gas model for oxygen and assume the form factor is approximately a dipole with one parameter, the axial vector mass M_A, and fit to the shape of the distribution of the square of the momentum transfer from the nucleon to the nucleus. Our best fit result for M_A = 1.20 \pm 0.12 GeV. Furthermore, this analysis includes updated vector form factors from recent electron scattering experiments and a discussion of the effects of the nucleon momentum on the shape of the fitted distributions.Comment: 14 pages, 10 figures, 6 table

Search for the W-exchange decays B0 --> Ds(*)- Ds(*)+

We report a search for the decays $B^{0} \to D_{s}^{-} D_{s}^{+}$, $B^{0} \to D_{s}^{*-} D_{s}^{+}$, $B^{0} \to D_{s}^{*-} D_{s}^{*+}$ in a sample of 232 million $\Upsilon(4S)$ decays to \BBb ~pairs collected with the \babar detector at the PEP-II asymmetric-energy $e^+ e^-$ storage ring. We find no significant signal and set upper bounds for the branching fractions: ${\cal B}(B^{0} \to D_{s}^{-} D_{s}^{+}) < 1.0 \times 10^{-4}, {\cal B}(B^{0} \to D_{s}^{*-} D_{s}^{+}) < 1.3 \times 10^{-4}$ and ${\cal B}(B^{0} \to D_{s}^{*-} D_{s}^{*+}) < 2.4 \times 10^{-4}$ at 90% confidence level.Comment: 8 pages, 2 figures, submitted to PRD-R

Study of e+e- --> pi+ pi- pi0 process using initial state radiation with BABAR

The process e+e- --> pi+ pi- pi0 gamma has been studied at a center-of-mass energy near the Y(4S) resonance using a 89.3 fb-1 data sample collected with the BaBar detector at the PEP-II collider. From the measured 3pi mass spectrum we have obtained the products of branching fractions for the omega and phi mesons, B(omega --> e+e-)B(omega --> 3pi)=(6.70 +/- 0.06 +/- 0.27)10-5 and B(phi --> e+e-)B(phi --> 3pi)=(4.30 +/- 0.08 +/- 0.21)10-5, and evaluated the e+e- --> pi+ pi- pi0 cross section for the e+e- center-of-mass energy range 1.05 to 3.00 GeV. About 900 e+e- --> J/psi gamma --> pi+ pi- pi0 gamma events have been selected and the branching fraction B(J/psi --> pi+ pi- pi0)=(2.18 +/- 0.19)% has been measured.Comment: 21 pages, 37 postscript figues, submitted to Phys. Rev.