Reconstruction of Seasonal Temperatures and Sea-level Pressures in the Hudson Bay Area back to 1700

Reconstructions climatiques au Canada depuis 1700 à partir d'archives historiques et de series dendrclimatique

Historical droughts in Mediterranean regions during the last 500 years: a data/model approach

International audienceWe present here a new method for comparing the output of General Circulation Models (GCMs) with proxy-based reconstructions, using time series of reconstructed and simulated climate parameters. The method uses k-means clustering to allow comparison between different periods that have similar spatial patterns, and a fuzzy logic-based distance measure in order to take reconstruction errors into account. The method has been used to test two coupled ocean-atmosphere GCMs over the Mediterranean region for the last 500 years, using an index of drought stress, the Palmer Drought Severity Index. The results showed that, whilst no model was able to exactly simulate the reconstructed changes, all simulations were an improvement over using the mean climate. Further, a good match was found after 1650 with a model run that took into account changes in volcanic forcing, solar irradiance, and greenhouse gases. A more detailed investigation of the output of this model showed the existence of a set of atmospheric circulation patterns linked to the patterns of drought stress: 1) a blocking pattern over northern Europe linked to dry conditions in the south prior to the Little Ice Age (LIA) and during the 20th century; 2) a NAO-positive like pattern with increased westerlies during the LIA; 3) a NAO-negative like period shown in the model prior to the LIA, but that occurs most frequently in the data during this period. The results of the comparison emphasise the importance of the inclusion of the various forcings in the models and help to understand the atmospheric changes connected to reconstructed climate changes

Millennium-long summer temperature variations in the European Alps as reconstructed from tree rings

This paper presents a reconstruction of the summer temperatures over the Greater Alpine Region (44.05A degrees-47.41A degrees N, 6.43A degrees-13A degrees E) during the last millennium based on a network of 38 multi-centennial larch and stone pine chronologies. Tree ring series are standardized using an Adaptative Regional Growth Curve, which attempts to remove the age effect from the low frequency variations in the series. The proxies are calibrated using the June to August mean temperatures from the HISTALP high-elevation temperature time series spanning the 1818-2003. The method combines an analogue technique, which is able to extend the too short tree-ring series, an artificial neural network technique for an optimal non-linear calibration including a bootstrap technique for calculating error assessment on the reconstruction. About 50% of the temperature variance is reconstructed. Low-elevation instrumental data back to 1760 compared to their instrumental target data reveal divergence between (warmer) early instrumental measurements and (colder) proxy estimates. The proxy record indicates cool conditions, from the mid-11th century to the mid-12th century, related to the Oort solar minimum followed by a short Medieval Warm Period (1200-1420). The Little Ice Age (1420-1830) appears particularly cold between 1420 and 1820 with summers that are 0.8 A degrees C cooler than the 1901-2000 period. The new record suggests that the persistency of the late 20th century warming trend is unprecedented. It also reveals significant similarities with other alpine reconstructions

Underestimation of the Tambora effects in North American taiga ecosystems

The Tambora eruption (1815 AD) was one of the major eruptions of the last two millennia and has no equivalents over the last two centuries. Here, we collected an extensive network of early meteorological time series, climate simulation data and numerous, well-replicated proxy records from Eastern Canada to analyze the strength and the persistence of the Tambora impact on the regional climate and forest processes. Our results show that the Tambora impacts on the terrestrial biosphere were stronger than previously thought, and not only affected tree growth and carbon uptake for a longer period than registered in the regional climate, but also determined forest demography and structure. Increased tree mortality, four times higher than the background level, indicates that the Tambora climatic impact propagated to influence the structure of the North American taiga for several decades. We also show that the Tambora signal is more persistent in observed data (temperature, river ice dynamics, forest growth, tree mortality) than in simulated ones (climate and forest-growth simulations), indicating that our understanding of the mechanisms amplifying volcanic perturbations on climates and ecosystems is still limited, notably in the North American taiga.Peer reviewe

VARIATIONS DEPUIS 10000 ANS DE LA REPARTITION ET DE LA PRODUCTIVITE DES FORETS D'ALTITUDE DANS LES ALPES ET LE JURA ET SIMULATION DES CHANGEMENTS FUTURS

Ce travail repose sur les charbons de bois enfouis dans les sols et les autres macrorestes ont été datés par 14C et identifiés botaniquement, et pour un site particulier (lac Cristol), sur les analyses de pollens, d'insectes, de macro-restes végétaux, charbons de bois et tronc d'arbres ont été combinés en une « approche multi-proxy » afin de mieux comprendre les variations de la forêt de montagne en réponse aux changements climatiques globaux et à l'activité anthropique. Les variations de la limite de la forêt sont de plus de 500 m durant l'Holocène. La période la plus chaude semble avoir été 9000-8000 ans cal B.P. (années calendaires avant le présent). Les hauts niveaux lacustres du début et de la fin de l'Holocène sont de natures en fait assez différentes. Au début de l'Holocène ils sont principalement dus à une évapotranspiration plus faible, et à la fin de l'Holocène à des précipitations plus élevées. L'ensemble de ces informations a permis de tester un modèle de végétation (Biome3) par une utilisation en mode inverse et à essayer de prédire l'évolution de la végétation. Un doublement de CO2 permet à la végétation d'évoluer vers des conditions plus tempérées. Une « forêt mixte tempérée », pourra devenir une forêt décidue tempérée grâce à des hivers nettement plus doux et à une meilleure efficacité dans l'utilisation de l'eau en été. Ces sites d'altitude ont connu une telle végétation entre 9000 et 8000 ans cal B.P

The influence of decision-making in tree ring-based climate reconstructions.

Tree-ring chronologies underpin the majority of annually-resolved reconstructions of Common Era climate. However, they are derived using different datasets and techniques, the ramifications of which have hitherto been little explored. Here, we report the results of a double-blind experiment that yielded 15 Northern Hemisphere summer temperature reconstructions from a common network of regional tree-ring width datasets. Taken together as an ensemble, the Common Era reconstruction mean correlates with instrumental temperatures from 1794-2016 CE at 0.79 (p < 0.001), reveals summer cooling in the years following large volcanic eruptions, and exhibits strong warming since the 1980s. Differing in their mean, variance, amplitude, sensitivity, and persistence, the ensemble members demonstrate the influence of subjectivity in the reconstruction process. We therefore recommend the routine use of ensemble reconstruction approaches to provide a more consensual picture of past climate variability

SARS-CoV-2 susceptibility and COVID-19 disease severity are associated with genetic variants affecting gene expression in a variety of tissues

Variability in SARS-CoV-2 susceptibility and COVID-19 disease severity between individuals is partly due to genetic factors. Here, we identify 4 genomic loci with suggestive associations for SARS-CoV-2 susceptibility and 19 for COVID-19 disease severity. Four of these 23 loci likely have an ethnicity-specific component. Genome-wide association study (GWAS) signals in 11 loci colocalize with expression quantitative trait loci (eQTLs) associated with the expression of 20 genes in 62 tissues/cell types (range: 1:43 tissues/gene), including lung, brain, heart, muscle, and skin as well as the digestive system and immune system. We perform genetic fine mapping to compute 99% credible SNP sets, which identify 10 GWAS loci that have eight or fewer SNPs in the credible set, including three loci with one single likely causal SNP. Our study suggests that the diverse symptoms and disease severity of COVID-19 observed between individuals is associated with variants across the genome, affecting gene expression levels in a wide variety of tissue types

Endogenous (In)Formal Institutions.

Despite the huge evidence documenting the relevance of inclusive political institutions and a culture of cooperation, we still lack a framework that identifies their origins and interaction. In a model in which an elite and a citizenry try to cooperate in consumption risk-sharing and investment, we show that a rise in the investment value encourages the elite to introduce more inclusive political institutions to convince the citizenry that a sufficient part of the returns on joint investments will be shared. In addition, accumulation of culture rises with the severity of consumption risk if this is not too large and thus cheating is not too appealing. Finally, the citizenry may over-accumulate culture to credibly commit to cooperate in investment when its value falls and so inclusive political institutions are at risk. These predictions are consistent with the evolution of activity-specific geographic factors, monasticism, and political institutions in a panel of 90 European regions spanning the 1000-1600 period. Evidence from several identification strategies suggests that the relationships we uncover are causal