Andean structural control on interseismic coupling in the North Chile subduction zone

Segmentation can influence the extent of earthquake rupture and event magnitude: large megathrust earthquakes result from total rupture of relatively continuous segments of the subduction interface. Segmentation is attributed to variations in the frictional properties of the seismogenic zone or to topographic features on the down-going plate. Structures in the overriding plate may also influence segmentation but their importance has been dismissed. Here, we investigate the links between interface segmentation at the North Chile seismic gap and a crustal-scale fault structure in the overriding plate that forms a coastal scarp of about 1 km in height. We use satellite interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) and Global Positioning System (GPS) data to measure interseismic surface deformation between 2003 and 2009 and compare the deformation with rupture extent during well-documented earthquakes. From these data we infer the degree of coupling and segmentation at depth. We find that along a 500-km-long segment, the base of the strongly coupled seismogenic zone correlates with the line of the surface coastal scarp and follows the outline of the Mejillones Peninsula. This correlation implies that large-scale structures in the overriding plate can influence the frictional properties of the seismogenic zone at depth. We therefore suggest that the occurrence of megathrust earthquakes in northern Chile is controlled by the surface structures that build Andean topography

Convergence rate across the Nepal Himalaya and interseismic coupling on the Main Himalayan Thrust: Implications for seismic hazard

We document geodetic strain across the Nepal Himalaya using GPS times series from 30 stations in Nepal and southern Tibet, in addition to previously published campaign GPS points and leveling data and determine the pattern of interseismic coupling on the Main Himalayan Thrust fault (MHT). The noise on the daily GPS positions is modeled as a combination of white and colored noise, in order to infer secular velocities at the stations with consistent uncertainties. We then locate the pole of rotation of the Indian plate in the ITRF 2005 reference frame at longitude = − 1.34° ± 3.31°, latitude = 51.4° ± 0.3° with an angular velocity of Ω = 0.5029 ± 0.0072°/Myr. The pattern of coupling on the MHT is computed on a fault dipping 10° to the north and whose strike roughly follows the arcuate shape of the Himalaya. The model indicates that the MHT is locked from the surface to a distance of approximately 100 km down dip, corresponding to a depth of 15 to 20 km. In map view, the transition zone between the locked portion of the MHT and the portion which is creeping at the long term slip rate seems to be at the most a few tens of kilometers wide and coincides with the belt of midcrustal microseismicity underneath the Himalaya. According to a previous study based on thermokinematic modeling of thermochronological and thermobarometric data, this transition seems to happen in a zone where the temperature reaches 350°C. The convergence between India and South Tibet proceeds at a rate of 17.8 ± 0.5 mm/yr in central and eastern Nepal and 20.5 ± 1 mm/yr in western Nepal. The moment deficit due to locking of the MHT in the interseismic period accrues at a rate of 6.6 ± 0.4 × 10^(19) Nm/yr on the MHT underneath Nepal. For comparison, the moment released by the seismicity over the past 500 years, including 14 M_W ≥ 7 earthquakes with moment magnitudes up to 8.5, amounts to only 0.9 × 10^(19) Nm/yr, indicating a large deficit of seismic slip over that period or very infrequent large slow slip events. No large slow slip event has been observed however over the 20 years covered by geodetic measurements in the Nepal Himalaya. We discuss the magnitude and return period of M > 8 earthquakes required to balance the long term slip budget on the MHT

The 2010 Maule, Chile earthquake: Downdip rupture limit revealed by space geodesy

Radar interferometry from the ALOS satellite captured the coseismic ground deformation associated with the 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule, Chile earthquake. The ALOS interferograms reveal a sharp transition in fringe pattern at ~150 km from the trench axis that is diagnostic of the downdip rupture limit of the Maule earthquake. An elastic dislocation model based on ascending and descending ALOS interferograms and 13 near-field 3-component GPS measurements reveals that the coseismic slip decreases more or less linearly from a maximum of 17 m (along-strike average of 6.5 m) at 18 km depth to near zero at 43–48 km depth, quantitatively indicating the downdip limit of the seismogenic zone. The depth at which slip drops to near zero appears to be at the intersection of the subducting plate with the continental Moho. Our model also suggests that the depth where coseismic slip vanishes is nearly uniform along the strike direction for a rupture length of ~600 km. The average coseismic slip vector and the interseismic velocity vector are not parallel, which can be interpreted as a deficit in strike-slip moment release

Partial rupture of a locked patch of the Sumatra megathrust during the 2007 earthquake sequence

The great Sumatra–Andaman earthquake and tsunami of 2004 was a dramatic reminder of the importance of understanding the seismic and tsunami hazards of subduction zones [1,2,3,4]. In March 2005, the Sunda megathrust ruptured again, producing an event [5] of moment magnitude (Mw) 8.6 south of the 2004 rupture area, which was the site of a similar event in 1861 (ref. 6). Concern was then focused on the Mentawai area, where large earthquakes had occurred in 1797 (Mw = 8.8) and 1833 (Mw = 9.0) [6,7]. Two earthquakes, one of Mw = 8.4 and, twelve hours later, one of Mw = 7.9, indeed occurred there on 12 September 2007. Here we show that these earthquakes ruptured only a fraction of the area ruptured in 1833 and consist of distinct asperities within a patch of the megathrust that had remained locked in the interseismic period. This indicates that the same portion of a megathrust can rupture in different patterns depending on whether asperities break as isolated seismic events or cooperate to produce a larger rupture. This variability probably arises from the influence of non-permanent barriers, zones with locally lower pre-stress due to the past earthquakes. The stress state of the portion of the Sunda megathrust that had ruptured in 1833 and 1797 was probably not adequate for the development of a single large rupture in 2007. The moment released in 2007 amounts to only a fraction both of that released in 1833 and of the deficit of moment that had accumulated as a result of interseismic strain since 1833. The potential for a large megathrust event in the Mentawai area thus remains large

Southern California permanent GPS geodetic array: Error analysis of daily position estimates and site velocities

We analyze time series of daily positions estimated from data collected by 10 continuously monitoring Global Positioning System (GPS) sites in southern California during the 19‐month period between the June 28, 1992 (Mw=7.3), Landers and January 17, 1994 (Mw=6.7), Northridge earthquakes. Each time series exhibits a linear tectonic signal and significant colored noise. Spectral power at frequencies in the range 5 yr−1 to 0.5 d−1 is dominated by white noise or possibly fractal white noise and is several orders of magnitude higher than what would be expected from random walk noise (in this short‐period range) attributed by others to geodetic monument motions. Estimating a single slope for the time series' power spectra suggests fractal white noise processes with spectral indices of about 0.4. Site velocity uncertainties assuming this fractal white noise model are 2–4 times larger than uncertainties obtained assuming a purely white noise model. A combination white noise plus flicker noise (spectral index of 1) model also fits the data and suggests that the velocity uncertainties should be 3–6 times larger than for the white noise model. We cannot adequately distinguish between these two noise models, nor can we rule out the possibility of a random walk signal at the lowest frequencies; these questions await the analysis of longer time series. In any case, reducing the magnitude of low‐frequency colored noise is critical and appears to be best accomplished by building sites with deeply anchored and braced monuments. Otherwise, rate uncertainties estimated from continuous GPS measurements may not be improved significantly compared to those estimated from infrequent campaign‐mode measurements