Sustainable Urban Water Management: A Simulation Optimization Approach

Sustainable water supply for an urban water system (UWS) is a challenge especially when the system is subject to both climate change and increasing water demand. This paper presents a simulation-optimization approach for determining an optimal strategy for long term operation of UWSs. The simulation module is the conceptual WaterMet2 model which can quantify and evaluate the values of some pre-defined performance indicators through simulating the UWS operation. The optimization module is the genetic algorithm (GA) minimizing water abstraction from groundwater wells and total costs while maximizing the system reliability. The decision variables are the amounts of water allocated to different service reservoirs and demand zones. The developed approach is demonstrated through its application to the UWS of Kerman City located in the south-eastern part of Iran, which is suffering from decreasing water resources due to overexploitation of groundwater resources. The results show that the developed simulation optimization approach can effectively be used in finding a sustainable water supply strategy for the studied UWS under an extreme scenario with a significant increase in future water demands

Quantitative Assessment of Future Sustainability Performance in Urban Water Services using WaterMet²

TRUST project / IWA Cities of the Future conference, Mülheim an der Ruhr, Germany, 28-30 April 2015Urban water services are likely to face challenges in the future, mainly due to population growth, climate change, increasing urbanization and ageing infrastructure. These factors are expected to impose significant strains on the performance of urban water services. This would subsequently decrease the capacity and quality of services in the urban water system (UWS) and thus negatively affect different dimensions of the sustainability framework (i.e. economic, environmental, social, asset and governance) presented by Alegre et al. (2012). Performance of future sustainability in the UWS can be evaluated by using simulation of metabolism-based processes in the urban water cycles over a pre-specified horizon. The WaterMet² model developed in the TRUST project quantifies the metabolism-based performance of the integrated UWS. The integrated modelling of the UWS implies the whole processes and components in an urban area related to water flows as a complex and interrelated system. A mass balance approach of water is followed within the system. WaterMet² enables the calculation of quantitative key performance indicators (KPI) of urban water services over a long-term planning horizon. These KPIs encompass various aspects of water systems sustainability such as cost (economic), GHG emissions (environmental), water supply reliability (social) and leakage (assets). WaterMet² can support various intervention strategies by calculating the relevant quantitative KPIs which can be used for a multi-criteria decision analysis in a decision support system framework. The overall KPI values (calculated on a per-capita basis) obtained from the UWS can be used for comparing sustainability indicators of water services among different cities. The comparison of KPI values in the main UWS components reveals the critical components for which appropriate intervention options should be undertaken.European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013

Compromise Programming Based Scenario Analysis Of Urban Water Systems Management Options: Case Study Of Kerman City

Supplying adequate water for urban water systems (UWSs) suffering from lack of water resources has always been a major concern in urban water management. Integrated simulation models are useful tools for sustainable planning and management of UWSs. This paper presents an integrated, conceptual modeling approach for simulation and analysis of an UWS by which different envisaged scenarios of water demand and resources are assessed. Other than water flow, the simulation model quantifies flows of energy, GHG emissions and cost in UWS. The performance of the developed model is demonstrated through its application to the UWS of Kerman City located in an arid region of south-eastern Iran. Given a number of potential scenarios, a range of water allocation policies from surface and ground water resources were examined over a long term planning period and compared then based on five sustainability performance criteria. The scenarios analyzed included a combination of three different rates for both population growth and groundwater withdrawal. The water allocation policies were then ranked for each scenario using the compromise programming technique of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA). The highest ranked policy was unchanged in all scenarios as the one resulted from a policy compromising among different criteria. The lowest ranked policies are those withdrawing water from merely one type of water resource

Auto Calibration and Optimization of Large-Scale Water Resources Systems

Water resource systems modelling have constantly been a challenge through history for human being. As the innovative methodological development is evolving alongside computer sciences on one hand, researches are likely to confront more complex and larger water resources systems due to new challenges regarding increased water demands, climate change and human interventions, socio-economic concerns, and environment protection and sustainability. In this research, an automatic calibration scheme has been applied on the Gilan's large-scale water resource model using mathematical programming. The water resource model's calibration is developed in order to attune unknown water return flows from demand sites in the complex Sefidroud irrigation network and other related areas. The calibration procedure is validated by comparing several gauged river outflows from the system in the past with model results. The calibration results are pleasantly reasonable presenting a rational insight of the system. Subsequently, the unknown optimized parameters were used in a basin-scale linear optimization model with the ability to evaluate the system's performance against a reduced inflow scenario in future. Results showed an acceptable match between predicted and observed outflows from the system at selected hydrometric stations. Moreover, an efficient operating policy was determined for Sefidroud dam leading to a minimum water shortage in the reduced inflow scenario

The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010-19 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally. Methods The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented. Findings Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4.45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4.01-4.94) deaths and 105 million (95.0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44.4% (41.3-48.4) of all cancer deaths and 42.0% (39.1-45.6) of all DALYs. There were 2.88 million (2.60-3.18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50.6% [47.8-54.1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1.58 million (1.36-1.84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36.3% [32.5-41.3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20.4% (12.6-28.4) and DALYs by 16.8% (8.8-25.0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34.7% [27.9-42.8] and 33.3% [25.8-42.0]). Interpretation The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden. Copyright (C) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.Peer reviewe

The global burden of adolescent and young adult cancer in 2019 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background In estimating the global burden of cancer, adolescents and young adults with cancer are often overlooked, despite being a distinct subgroup with unique epidemiology, clinical care needs, and societal impact. Comprehensive estimates of the global cancer burden in adolescents and young adults (aged 15-39 years) are lacking. To address this gap, we analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, with a focus on the outcome of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), to inform global cancer control measures in adolescents and young adults. Methods Using the GBD 2019 methodology, international mortality data were collected from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and population-based cancer registry inputs modelled with mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs). Incidence was computed with mortality estimates and corresponding MIRs. Prevalence estimates were calculated using modelled survival and multiplied by disability weights to obtain years lived with disability (YLDs). Years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated as age-specific cancer deaths multiplied by the standard life expectancy at the age of death. The main outcome was DALYs (the sum of YLLs and YLDs). Estimates were presented globally and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintiles (countries ranked and divided into five equal SDI groups), and all estimates were presented with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). For this analysis, we used the age range of 15-39 years to define adolescents and young adults. Findings There were 1.19 million (95% UI 1.11-1.28) incident cancer cases and 396 000 (370 000-425 000) deaths due to cancer among people aged 15-39 years worldwide in 2019. The highest age-standardised incidence rates occurred in high SDI (59.6 [54.5-65.7] per 100 000 person-years) and high-middle SDI countries (53.2 [48.8-57.9] per 100 000 person-years), while the highest age-standardised mortality rates were in low-middle SDI (14.2 [12.9-15.6] per 100 000 person-years) and middle SDI (13.6 [12.6-14.8] per 100 000 person-years) countries. In 2019, adolescent and young adult cancers contributed 23.5 million (21.9-25.2) DALYs to the global burden of disease, of which 2.7% (1.9-3.6) came from YLDs and 97.3% (96.4-98.1) from YLLs. Cancer was the fourth leading cause of death and tenth leading cause of DALYs in adolescents and young adults globally. Interpretation Adolescent and young adult cancers contributed substantially to the overall adolescent and young adult disease burden globally in 2019. These results provide new insights into the distribution and magnitude of the adolescent and young adult cancer burden around the world. With notable differences observed across SDI settings, these estimates can inform global and country-level cancer control efforts. Copyright (C) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe

CHNS Modeling for Study and Management of Human–Water Interactions at Multiple Scales

This paper presents basic definitions and challenges/opportunities from different perspectives to study and control water cycle impacts on society and vice versa. The wider and increased interactions and their consequences such as global warming and climate change, and the role of complex institutional- and governance-related socioeconomic-environmental issues bring forth new challenges. Hydrology and integrated water resources management (IWRM from the viewpoint of an engineering planner) do not exclude in their scopes the study of the impact of changes in global hydrology from societal actions and their feedback effects on the local/global hydrology. However, it is useful to have unique emphasis through specialized fields such as hydrosociology (including the society in planning water projects, from the viewpoint of the humanities) and sociohydrology (recognizing the large-scale impacts society has on hydrology, from the viewpoint of science). Global hydrological models have been developed for large-scale hydrology with few parameters to calibrate at local scale, and integrated assessment models have been developed for multiple sectors including water. It is important not to do these studies with a silo mindset, as problems in water and society require highly interdisciplinary skills, but flexibility and acceptance of diverse views will progress these studies and their usefulness to society. To deal with complexities in water and society, systems modeling is likely the only practical approach and is the viewpoint of researchers using coupled human–natural systems (CHNS) models. The focus and the novelty in this paper is to clarify some of these challenges faced in CHNS modeling, such as spatiotemporal scale variations, scaling issues, institutional issues, and suggestions for appropriate mathematical tools for dealing with these issues

Water-constrained green development framework based on economically-allocable water resources

Abstract Water as a main driver for sustainable development (SD) should be optimally allocated to different users to support economic, social, and environmental functions. Traditional approaches are not able to account for all the mentioned functions simultaneously, therefore a change in the allocation approaches is necessary. This paper proposes a new framework for inter-sectoral water allocation called “water-constrained green development” (WCGD) to better meet the SD goals. The framework optimally allocates economically-allocable water (EAW), which is the total available water resources left after subtracting the amount of water required for drinking, sanitation, and environment (DSE), to different job classes. It was tested in Sistan Region- a low-developed area in southeast of Iran- which stands on agriculture. In the recent years, because of water crisis, intensity of dust problem, lack of sustained occupation, and immigration, the region’s rate of population growth has been negative. Also, due to decrease of Helmand River inflow, Hamoun wetland, being the major source of food and shelter for the Sistan’s residents, has been degraded. Therefore, Sistan Region needs to take a new development route. The shares of occupation and gross domestic product (GDP) in the agricultural sector of Sistan are respectively 29.1 and 14.8%, whereas they are on average 1 and 7% in Iran. Application of the proposed framework in Sistan Region under three scenarios of available EAW resources showed that the optimal reallocation of water among 15 job classes can improve job availability and GDP of the region currently suffering from poor economy and employment conditions. Based on the optimal job pattern obtained, the share of GDP of Sistan’s agricultural sector drops to 7.1% while the shares of industrial and service sectors increase respectively from 9.7 and 75.4% to 13.7 and 79.2%, which are close to those of the country averages. Also, under the WCGD-based optimal solution, 68, 14, and 18% of people will respectively be employed in service, industry, and agriculture sectors. Additionally, the total available jobs and GDP will increase by 8.9 and 51.1%, respectively, leading to improved socio-economic well-being of  the region’s people and protection of its environmental resources

Resilience of integrated urban water systems

Strengthening the resilience of integrated urban water systems (UWS) comprised of water supply and sewer systems against floods and water shortages can be a challenging task. In this paper, a new set of resilience performance indicators is introduced for concurrent assessment of both failure conditions of water shortage and floods in the UWS. A number of potential intervention strategies such as rainwater harvesting (RWH) and greywater recycling (GWR) schemes for enhancement of UWS resilience are evaluated through a conceptual model of urban water metabolism assessment. Modelling of main UWS components is conducted using the WaterMet2 to simulate the performance of intervention strategies in UWS through urban water metabolism. WaterMet2 calculates key performance indicators of urban water metabolisms over a long-term planning horizon that can be used to calculate various resilience performance indicators. The demonstration of the suggested approach on a real-world case study reveals how different elements of resilience performance can be improved in the UWS by specific strategies against failure events such as flood and water shortage conditions

Resilience of integrated urban water systems

Strengthening the resilience of integrated urban water systems (UWS) comprised of water supply and sewer systems against floods and water shortages can be a challenging task. In this paper, a new set of resilience performance indicators is introduced for concurrent assessment of both failure conditions of water shortage and floods in the UWS. A number of potential intervention strategies such as rainwater harvesting (RWH) and greywater recycling (GWR) schemes for enhancement of UWS resilience are evaluated through a conceptual model of urban water metabolism assessment. Modelling of main UWS components is conducted using the WaterMet2 to simulate the performance of intervention strategies in UWS through urban water metabolism. WaterMet2 calculates key performance indicators of urban water metabolisms over a long-term planning horizon that can be used to calculate various resilience performance indicators. The demonstration of the suggested approach on a real-world case study reveals how different elements of resilience performance can be improved in the UWS by specific strategies against failure events such as flood and water shortage conditions