The Amsterdam wrist rules: The multicenter prospective derivation and external validation of a clinical decision rule for the use of radiography in acute wrist trauma

Background: Although only 39 % of patients with wrist trauma have sustained a fracture, the majority of patients is routinely referred for radiography. The purpose of this study was to derive and externally validate a clinical decision rule that selects patients with acute wrist trauma in the Emergency Department (ED) for radiography. Methods: This multicenter prospective study consisted of three components: (1) derivation of a clinical prediction model for detecting wrist fractures in patients following wrist trauma; (2) external validation of this model; and (3) design of a clinical decision rule. The study was conducted in the EDs of five Dutch hospitals: one academic hospital (derivation cohort) and four regional hospitals (external validation cohort). We included all adult patients with acute wrist trauma. The main outcome was fracture of the wrist (distal radius, distal ulna or carpal bones) diagnosed on conventional X-rays. Results: A total of 882 patients were analyzed; 487 in the derivation cohort and 395 in the validation cohort. We derived a clinical prediction model with eight variables: age; sex, swelling of the wrist; swelling of the anatomical snuffbox, visible deformation; distal radius tender to palpation; pain on radial deviation and painful axial compression of the thumb. The Area Under the Curve at external validation of this model was 0.81 (95 % CI: 0.77-0.85). The sensitivity and specificity of the Amsterdam Wrist Rules (AWR) in the external validation cohort were 98 % (95 % CI: 95-99 %) and 21 % (95 % CI: 15 %-28). The negative predictive value was 90 % (95 % CI: 81-99 %). Conclusions: The Amsterdam Wrist Rules is a clinical prediction rule with a high sensitivity and negative predictive value for fractures of the wrist. Although external validation showed low specificity and 100 % sensitivity could not be achieved, the Amsterdam Wrist Rules can provide physicians in the Emergency Department with a useful screening tool to select patients with acute wrist trauma for radiography. The upcoming implementation study will further reveal the impact of the Amsterdam Wrist Rules on the anticipated reduction of X-rays requested, missed fractures, Emergency Department waiting times and health care costs. Trial registration: This study was registered in the Dutch Trial Registry, reference number NTR2544 on October 1st, 2010

A clinical decision rule for the use of plain radiography in children after acute wrist injury: development and external validation of the Amsterdam Pediatric Wrist Rules

Background: In most hospitals, children with acute wrist trauma are routinely referred for radiography. Objective: To develop and validate a clinical decision rule to decide whether radiography in children with wrist trauma is required. Materials and methods: We prospectively developed and validated a clinical decision rule in two study populations. All children who presented in the emergency department of four hospitals with pain following wrist trauma were included and evaluated for 18 clinical variables. The outcome was a wrist fracture diagnosed by plain radiography. Results: Included in the study were 787 children. The prediction model consisted of six variables: age, swelling of the distal radius, visible deformation, distal radius tender to palpation, anatomical snuffbox tender to palpation, and painful or abnormal supination. The model showed an area under the receiver operator characteristics curve of 0.79 (95% CI: 0.76-0.83). The sensitivity and specificity were 95.9% and 37.3%, respectively. The use of this model would have resulted in a 22% absolute reduction of radiographic examinations. In a validation study, 7/170 fractures (4.1%, 95% CI: 1.7-8.3%) would have been missed using the decision model. Conclusion: The decision model may be a valuable tool to decide whether radiography in children after wrist trauma is required

Genetic Analysis of Human Traits In Vitro: Drug Response and Gene Expression in Lymphoblastoid Cell Lines

Lymphoblastoid cell lines (LCLs), originally collected as renewable sources of DNA, are now being used as a model system to study genotype–phenotype relationships in human cells, including searches for QTLs influencing levels of individual mRNAs and responses to drugs and radiation. In the course of attempting to map genes for drug response using 269 LCLs from the International HapMap Project, we evaluated the extent to which biological noise and non-genetic confounders contribute to trait variability in LCLs. While drug responses could be technically well measured on a given day, we observed significant day-to-day variability and substantial correlation to non-genetic confounders, such as baseline growth rates and metabolic state in culture. After correcting for these confounders, we were unable to detect any QTLs with genome-wide significance for drug response. A much higher proportion of variance in mRNA levels may be attributed to non-genetic factors (intra-individual variance—i.e., biological noise, levels of the EBV virus used to transform the cells, ATP levels) than to detectable eQTLs. Finally, in an attempt to improve power, we focused analysis on those genes that had both detectable eQTLs and correlation to drug response; we were unable to detect evidence that eQTL SNPs are convincingly associated with drug response in the model. While LCLs are a promising model for pharmacogenetic experiments, biological noise and in vitro artifacts may reduce power and have the potential to create spurious association due to confounding

The 2010 very high energy gamma-ray flare & 10 years of multi-wavelength observations of M 87

Abridged: The giant radio galaxy M 87 with its proximity, famous jet, and very massive black hole provides a unique opportunity to investigate the origin of very high energy (VHE; E>100 GeV) gamma-ray emission generated in relativistic outflows and the surroundings of super-massive black holes. M 87 has been established as a VHE gamma-ray emitter since 2006. The VHE gamma-ray emission displays strong variability on timescales as short as a day. In this paper, results from a joint VHE monitoring campaign on M 87 by the MAGIC and VERITAS instruments in 2010 are reported. During the campaign, a flare at VHE was detected triggering further observations at VHE (H.E.S.S.), X-rays (Chandra), and radio (43 GHz VLBA). The excellent sampling of the VHE gamma-ray light curve enables one to derive a precise temporal characterization of the flare: the single, isolated flare is well described by a two-sided exponential function with significantly different flux rise and decay times. While the overall variability pattern of the 2010 flare appears somewhat different from that of previous VHE flares in 2005 and 2008, they share very similar timescales (~day), peak fluxes (Phi(>0.35 TeV) ~= (1-3) x 10^-11 ph cm^-2 s^-1), and VHE spectra. 43 GHz VLBA radio observations of the inner jet regions indicate no enhanced flux in 2010 in contrast to observations in 2008, where an increase of the radio flux of the innermost core regions coincided with a VHE flare. On the other hand, Chandra X-ray observations taken ~3 days after the peak of the VHE gamma-ray emission reveal an enhanced flux from the core. The long-term (2001-2010) multi-wavelength light curve of M 87, spanning from radio to VHE and including data from HST, LT, VLA and EVN, is used to further investigate the origin of the VHE gamma-ray emission. No unique, common MWL signature of the three VHE flares has been identified.Comment: 19 pages, 5 figures; Corresponding authors: M. Raue, L. Stawarz, D. Mazin, P. Colin, C. M. Hui, M. Beilicke; Fig. 1 lightcurve data available online: http://www.desy.de/~mraue/m87

Stroke genetics informs drug discovery and risk prediction across ancestries

Previous genome-wide association studies (GWASs) of stroke — the second leading cause of death worldwide — were conducted predominantly in populations of European ancestry1,2. Here, in cross-ancestry GWAS meta-analyses of 110,182 patients who have had a stroke (five ancestries, 33% non-European) and 1,503,898 control individuals, we identify association signals for stroke and its subtypes at 89 (61 new) independent loci: 60 in primary inverse-variance-weighted analyses and 29 in secondary meta-regression and multitrait analyses. On the basis of internal cross-ancestry validation and an independent follow-up in 89,084 additional cases of stroke (30% non-European) and 1,013,843 control individuals, 87% of the primary stroke risk loci and 60% of the secondary stroke risk loci were replicated (P < 0.05). Effect sizes were highly correlated across ancestries. Cross-ancestry fine-mapping, in silico mutagenesis analysis3, and transcriptome-wide and proteome-wide association analyses revealed putative causal genes (such as SH3PXD2A and FURIN) and variants (such as at GRK5 and NOS3). Using a three-pronged approach4, we provide genetic evidence for putative drug effects, highlighting F11, KLKB1, PROC, GP1BA, LAMC2 and VCAM1 as possible targets, with drugs already under investigation for stroke for F11 and PROC. A polygenic score integrating cross-ancestry and ancestry-specific stroke GWASs with vascular-risk factor GWASs (integrative polygenic scores) strongly predicted ischaemic stroke in populations of European, East Asian and African ancestry5. Stroke genetic risk scores were predictive of ischaemic stroke independent of clinical risk factors in 52,600 clinical-trial participants with cardiometabolic disease. Our results provide insights to inform biology, reveal potential drug targets and derive genetic risk prediction tools across ancestries

Factors determining outcome in gastroschisis: clinical experience over 18 years

Although the survival in gastroschisis has improved to more than 85%, serious morbidity with consequent long hospital stay is still very common. Alternative strategies such as planned early delivery and amniotic fluid exchange are being explored. In order to evaluate these approaches, adequate risk stratification of patients with gastroschisis is required. The aim of this study was to identify the risk factors associated with increased morbidity and mortality. A retrospective analysis of all patients with gastroschisis treated at our institution between 1988 and 2005 was conducted. Patients' data were collected from the files and compared for statistical significance with three outcome measures: (1) complicated post-operative course; (2) time to full enteral feeding (TFE); (3) length of hospital stay (LOS). SPSS was used for statistical analysis. Fifty-nine newborns with gastroschisis were admitted during the study period. Antenatal diagnosis was made in 40 cases (68%). Associated malformations (other than intestinal anomalies) were present in eight patients. One patient with trisomy 13 was excluded from the analysis. Ten patients (17%) had compromised bowel (atresia, severe ischaemia or a combination). Primary repair was successful in 47 (81%) and in 11 patients a silo was applied. Overall survival was 54/58 children (93%), four patients died. Complications associated with closure occurred in eight patients. Post-operative course was uncomplicated in 45 patients and complicated in 13. The RR for patients with compromised bowel to have a complicated post-operative course is 9 (95% CI 2-39) and the RR to die is 20 (95% CI 2-222) for these patients. Risk stratification of patients with gastroschisis appears possible based on the presence of compromised bowel before closur

A clinical decision rule for the use of plain radiography in children after acute wrist injury: development and external validation of the Amsterdam Pediatric Wrist Rules

textabstractBackground: In most hospitals, children with acute wrist trauma are routinely referred for radiography. Objective: To develop and validate a clinical decision rule to decide whether radiography in children with wrist trauma is required. Materials and methods: We prospectively developed and validated a clinical decision rule in two study populations. All children who presented in the emergency department of four hospitals with pain following wrist trauma were included and evaluated for 18 clinical variables. The outcome was a wrist fracture diagnosed by plain radiography. Results: Included in the study were 787 children. The prediction model consisted of six variables: age, swelling of the distal radius, visible deformation, distal radius tender to palpation, anatomical snuffbox tender to palpation, and painful or abnormal supination. The model showed an area under the receiver operator characteristics curve of 0.79 (95% CI: 0.76-0.83). The sensitivity and specificity were 95.9% and 37.3%, respectively. The use of this model would have resulted in a 22% absolute reduction of radiographic examinations. In a validation study, 7/170 fractures (4.1%, 95% CI: 1.7-8.3%) would have been missed using the decision model. Conclusion: The decision model may be a valuable tool to decide whether radiography in children after wrist trauma is required

Correction: Amsterdam Wrist Rules: a clinical decision aid

The name of one of the authors of this manuscript (1) was misspelled. The correct name is: J. Carel Goslings. We regret any inconvenience this error has caused. (1) Bentohami A, Walenkamp MM, Slaar A, Beerekamp MS, de Groot JA, Verhoog EM, et al. Amsterdam wrist rules: a clinical decision aid. BMC Musculoskelet Disord 2011 Oct 17;12:23