Dissecting the illegal ivory trade: an analysis of ivory seizures data

Reliable evidence of trends in the illegal ivory trade is important for informing decision making for elephants but it is difficult to obtain due to the covert nature of the trade. The Elephant Trade Information System, a global database of reported seizures of illegal ivory, holds the only extensive information on illicit trade available. However inherent biases in seizure data make it difficult to infer trends; countries differ in their ability to make and report seizures and these differences cannot be directly measured. We developed a new modelling framework to provide quantitative evidence on trends in the illegal ivory trade from seizures data. The framework used Bayesian hierarchical latent variable models to reduce bias in seizures data by identifying proxy variables that describe the variability in seizure and reporting rates between countries and over time. Models produced bias-adjusted smoothed estimates of relative trends in illegal ivory activity for raw and worked ivory in three weight classes. Activity is represented by two indicators describing the number of illegal ivory transactions--Transactions Index--and the total weight of illegal ivory transactions--Weights Index--at global, regional or national levels. Globally, activity was found to be rapidly increasing and at its highest level for 16 years, more than doubling from 2007 to 2011 and tripling from 1998 to 2011. Over 70% of the Transactions Index is from shipments of worked ivory weighing less than 10 kg and the rapid increase since 2007 is mainly due to increased consumption in China. Over 70% of the Weights Index is from shipments of raw ivory weighing at least 100 kg mainly moving from Central and East Africa to Southeast and East Asia. The results tie together recent findings on trends in poaching rates, declining populations and consumption and provide detailed evidence to inform international decision making on elephants

Cerebrospinal Fluid Concentration of Brain-Derived Neurotrophic Factor and Cognitive Function in Non-Demented Subjects

Brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) is an activity-dependent secreted protein that is critical to organization of neuronal networks and synaptic plasticity, especially in the hippocampus. We tested hypothesis that reduced CSF BDNF is associated with age-related cognitive decline.CSF concentration of BDNF, Abeta(42) and total tau were measured in 128 cognitively normal adults (Normals), 21 patients with Alzheimer's disease (AD), and nine patients with Mild Cognitive Impairment. Apolipoprotein E and BDNF SNP rs6265 genotype were determined. Neuropsychological tests were performed at baseline for all subjects and at follow-up visits in 50 Normals. CSF BDNF level was lower in AD patients compared to age-matched Normals (p = 0.02). CSF BDNF concentration decreased with age among Normals and was higher in women than men (both p<0.001). After adjusting for age, gender, education, CSF Abeta(42) and total tau, and APOE and BDNF genotypes, lower CSF BDNF concentration was associated poorer immediate and delayed recall at baseline (both p<0.05) and in follow up of approximately 3 years duration (both p<0.01).Reduced CSF BDNF was associated with age-related cognitive decline, suggesting a potential mechanism that may contribute in part to cognitive decline in older individuals

Proteomic and Physiological Responses of Kineococcus radiotolerans to Copper

Copper is a highly reactive, toxic metal; consequently, transport of this metal within the cell is tightly regulated. Intriguingly, the actinobacterium Kineococcus radiotolerans has been shown to not only accumulate soluble copper to high levels within the cytoplasm, but the phenotype also correlated with enhanced cell growth during chronic exposure to ionizing radiation. This study offers a first glimpse into the physiological and proteomic responses of K. radiotolerans to copper at increasing concentration and distinct growth phases. Aerobic growth rates and biomass yields were similar over a range of Cu(II) concentrations (0–1.5 mM) in complex medium. Copper uptake coincided with active cell growth and intracellular accumulation was positively correlated with Cu(II) concentration in the growth medium (R2 = 0.7). Approximately 40% of protein coding ORFs on the K. radiotolerans genome were differentially expressed in response to the copper treatments imposed. Copper accumulation coincided with increased abundance of proteins involved in oxidative stress and defense, DNA stabilization and repair, and protein turnover. Interestingly, the specific activity of superoxide dismutase was repressed by low to moderate concentrations of copper during exponential growth, and activity was unresponsive to perturbation with paraquot. The biochemical response pathways invoked by sub-lethal copper concentrations are exceptionally complex; though integral cellular functions are preserved, in part, through the coordination of defense enzymes, chaperones, antioxidants and protective osmolytes that likely help maintain cellular redox. This study extends our understanding of the ecology and physiology of this unique actinobacterium that could potentially inspire new biotechnologies in metal recovery and sequestration, and environmental restoration

Statistical modelling of key variables in social survey data analysis

The application of statistical modelling techniques has become a cornerstone of analyses of large-scale social survey data. Bringing this special section on key variables to a close, this final article discusses several important issues relating to the inclusion of key variables in statistical modelling analyses. We outline two, often neglected, issues that are relevant to a great many applications of statistical models based upon social survey data. The first is known as the reference category problem and is related to the interpretation of categorical explanatory variables. The second is the interpretation and comparison of the effects from models for non-linear outcomes. We then briefly discuss other common complexities in using statistical models for social science research; these include the non-linear transformation of variables, and considerations of intersectionality and interaction effects. We conclude by emphasising the importance of two, often overlooked, elements of the social survey data analysis process, sensitivity analysis and documentation for replication. We argue that more attention should routinely be devoted to these issues

Global patient outcomes after elective surgery: prospective cohort study in 27 low-, middle- and high-income countries.

BACKGROUND: As global initiatives increase patient access to surgical treatments, there remains a need to understand the adverse effects of surgery and define appropriate levels of perioperative care. METHODS: We designed a prospective international 7-day cohort study of outcomes following elective adult inpatient surgery in 27 countries. The primary outcome was in-hospital complications. Secondary outcomes were death following a complication (failure to rescue) and death in hospital. Process measures were admission to critical care immediately after surgery or to treat a complication and duration of hospital stay. A single definition of critical care was used for all countries. RESULTS: A total of 474 hospitals in 19 high-, 7 middle- and 1 low-income country were included in the primary analysis. Data included 44 814 patients with a median hospital stay of 4 (range 2-7) days. A total of 7508 patients (16.8%) developed one or more postoperative complication and 207 died (0.5%). The overall mortality among patients who developed complications was 2.8%. Mortality following complications ranged from 2.4% for pulmonary embolism to 43.9% for cardiac arrest. A total of 4360 (9.7%) patients were admitted to a critical care unit as routine immediately after surgery, of whom 2198 (50.4%) developed a complication, with 105 (2.4%) deaths. A total of 1233 patients (16.4%) were admitted to a critical care unit to treat complications, with 119 (9.7%) deaths. Despite lower baseline risk, outcomes were similar in low- and middle-income compared with high-income countries. CONCLUSIONS: Poor patient outcomes are common after inpatient surgery. Global initiatives to increase access to surgical treatments should also address the need for safe perioperative care. STUDY REGISTRATION: ISRCTN5181700

Intraperitoneal drain placement and outcomes after elective colorectal surgery: international matched, prospective, cohort study

Despite current guidelines, intraperitoneal drain placement after elective colorectal surgery remains widespread. Drains were not associated with earlier detection of intraperitoneal collections, but were associated with prolonged hospital stay and increased risk of surgical-site infections.Background Many surgeons routinely place intraperitoneal drains after elective colorectal surgery. However, enhanced recovery after surgery guidelines recommend against their routine use owing to a lack of clear clinical benefit. This study aimed to describe international variation in intraperitoneal drain placement and the safety of this practice. Methods COMPASS (COMPlicAted intra-abdominal collectionS after colorectal Surgery) was a prospective, international, cohort study which enrolled consecutive adults undergoing elective colorectal surgery (February to March 2020). The primary outcome was the rate of intraperitoneal drain placement. Secondary outcomes included: rate and time to diagnosis of postoperative intraperitoneal collections; rate of surgical site infections (SSIs); time to discharge; and 30-day major postoperative complications (Clavien-Dindo grade at least III). After propensity score matching, multivariable logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards regression were used to estimate the independent association of the secondary outcomes with drain placement. Results Overall, 1805 patients from 22 countries were included (798 women, 44.2 per cent; median age 67.0 years). The drain insertion rate was 51.9 per cent (937 patients). After matching, drains were not associated with reduced rates (odds ratio (OR) 1.33, 95 per cent c.i. 0.79 to 2.23; P = 0.287) or earlier detection (hazard ratio (HR) 0.87, 0.33 to 2.31; P = 0.780) of collections. Although not associated with worse major postoperative complications (OR 1.09, 0.68 to 1.75; P = 0.709), drains were associated with delayed hospital discharge (HR 0.58, 0.52 to 0.66; P &lt; 0.001) and an increased risk of SSIs (OR 2.47, 1.50 to 4.05; P &lt; 0.001). Conclusion Intraperitoneal drain placement after elective colorectal surgery is not associated with earlier detection of postoperative collections, but prolongs hospital stay and increases SSI risk

Constraints on the origin and evolution of the layered mound in Gale Crater, Mars using Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter data

Gale Crater contains a 5.2 km-high central mound of layered material that is largely sedimentary in origin and has been considered as a potential landing site for both the MER (Mars Exploration Rover) and MSL (Mars Science Laboratory) missions. We have analyzed recent data from Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter to help unravel the complex geologic history evidenced by these layered deposits and other landforms in the crater. Results from imaging data from the High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment (HiRISE) and Context Camera (CTX) confirm geomorphic evidence for fluvial activity and may indicate an early lacustrine phase. Analysis of spectral data from the CRISM (Compact Reconnaissance Imaging Spectrometer for Mars) instrument shows clay-bearing units interstratified with sulfate-bearing strata in the lower member of the layered mound, again indicative of aqueous activity. The formation age of the layered mound, derived from crater counts and superposition relationships, is similar to 3.6-3.8 Ga and straddles the Noachian-Hesperian time-stratigraphic boundary. Thus Gale provides a unique opportunity to investigate global environmental change on Mars during a period of transition from an environment that favored phyllosilicate deposition to a later one that was dominated by sulfate formation. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.2142413432NAS