Statistical modeling of ground motion relations for seismic hazard analysis

We introduce a new approach for ground motion relations (GMR) in the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), being influenced by the extreme value theory of mathematical statistics. Therein, we understand a GMR as a random function. We derive mathematically the principle of area-equivalence; wherein two alternative GMRs have an equivalent influence on the hazard if these GMRs have equivalent area functions. This includes local biases. An interpretation of the difference between these GMRs (an actual and a modeled one) as a random component leads to a general overestimation of residual variance and hazard. Beside this, we discuss important aspects of classical approaches and discover discrepancies with the state of the art of stochastics and statistics (model selection and significance, test of distribution assumptions, extreme value statistics). We criticize especially the assumption of logarithmic normally distributed residuals of maxima like the peak ground acceleration (PGA). The natural distribution of its individual random component (equivalent to exp(epsilon_0) of Joyner and Boore 1993) is the generalized extreme value. We show by numerical researches that the actual distribution can be hidden and a wrong distribution assumption can influence the PSHA negatively as the negligence of area equivalence does. Finally, we suggest an estimation concept for GMRs of PSHA with a regression-free variance estimation of the individual random component. We demonstrate the advantages of event-specific GMRs by analyzing data sets from the PEER strong motion database and estimate event-specific GMRs. Therein, the majority of the best models base on an anisotropic point source approach. The residual variance of logarithmized PGA is significantly smaller than in previous models. We validate the estimations for the event with the largest sample by empirical area functions. etc

Genetical genomics: spotlight on QTL hotspots

No abstract available

Expression quantitative trait loci are highly sensitive to cellular differentiation state

Blood cell development from multipotent hematopoietic stem cells to specialized blood cells is accompanied by drastic changes in gene expression for which the triggers remain mostly unknown. Genetical genomics is an approach linking natural genetic variation to gene expression variation, thereby allowing the identification of genomic loci containing gene expression modulators (eQTLs). In this paper, we used a genetical genomics approach to analyze gene expression across four developmentally close blood cell types collected from a large number of genetically different but related mouse strains. We found that, while a significant number of eQTLs (365) had a consistent “static” regulatory effect on gene expression, an even larger number were found to be very sensitive to cell stage. As many as 1,283 eQTLs exhibited a “dynamic” behavior across cell types. By looking more closely at these dynamic eQTLs, we show that the sensitivity of eQTLs to cell stage is largely associated with gene expression changes in target genes. These results stress the importance of studying gene expression variation in well-defined cell populations. Only such studies will be able to reveal the important differences in gene regulation between different ce

Entrepreneurs’ age, institutions, and social value creation goals: a multi-country study

This study explores the relationship between an entrepreneur's age and his/her social value creation goals. Building on the lifespan developmental psychology literature and institutional theory, we hypothesize a U-shaped relationship between entrepreneurs’ age and their choice to create social value through their ventures, such that younger and older entrepreneurs create more social value with their businesses while middle age entrepreneurs are relatively more economically and less socially oriented with their ventures. We further hypothesize that the quality of a country’s formal institutions in terms of economic, social, and political freedom steepen the U-shaped relationship between entrepreneurs’ age and their choice to pursue social value creation as supportive institutional environments allow entrepreneurs to follow their age-based preferences. We confirm our predictions using multilevel mixed-effects linear regressions on a sample of over 15,000 entrepreneurs (aged between 18 and 64 years) in 45 countries from Global Entrepreneurship Monitor data. The findings are robust to several alternative specifications. Based on our findings, we discuss implications for theory and practice, and we propose future research directions

Reduced engagement with social stimuli in 6-month-old infants with later Autism Spectrum Disorder: a longitudinal prospective study of infants at high familial risk

Background: Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) is a neurodevelopmental disorder that affects more than 1% of the population, and close to 20% of prospectively studied infants with an older sibling with ASD. Although significant progress has been made in characterizing the emergence of behavioral symptoms of ASD, far less is known about the underlying disruptions to early learning. Recent models suggest that core aspects of the causal path to ASD may only be apparent in early infancy. Here, we investigated social attention in 6- and 12-month-old infants who did and did not meet criteria for ASD at 24 months using both cognitive and electrophysiological methods. We hypothesized that a reduction in attention engagement to faces would be associated with later ASD. Methods: In a prospective longitudinal design, we used measures of both visual attention (habituation) and brain function (event-related potentials to faces and objects) at 6 and 12 months, and investigated the relationship to ASD outcome at 24 months. Results: High-risk infants who met criteria for ASD at 24 months showed shorter epochs of visual attention, faster but less prolonged neural activation to faces, and delayed sensitization responses (increases in looking) to faces at 6 months; these differences were less apparent at 12 months. These findings are consistent with disrupted engagement of sustained attention to social stimuli. Conclusions: These findings suggest that there may be fundamental early disruptions to attention engagement that may have cascading consequences for later social functioning

Hybrid video quality prediction: reviewing video quality measurement for widening application scope

A tremendous number of objective video quality measurement algorithms have been developed during the last two decades. Most of them either measure a very limited aspect of the perceived video quality or they measure broad ranges of quality with limited prediction accuracy. This paper lists several perceptual artifacts that may be computationally measured in an isolated algorithm and some of the modeling approaches that have been proposed to predict the resulting quality from those algorithms. These algorithms usually have a very limited application scope but have been verified carefully. The paper continues with a review of some standardized and well-known video quality measurement algorithms that are meant for a wide range of applications, thus have a larger scope. Their individual artifacts prediction accuracy is usually lower but some of them were validated to perform sufficiently well for standardization. Several difficulties and shortcomings in developing a general purpose model with high prediction performance are identified such as a common objective quality scale or the behavior of individual indicators when confronted with stimuli that are out of their prediction scope. The paper concludes with a systematic framework approach to tackle the development of a hybrid video quality measurement in a joint research collaboration.Polish National Centre for Research and Development (NCRD) SP/I/1/77065/10, Swedish Governmental Agency for Innovation Systems (Vinnova

Effectiveness of a web-based treatment program using intensive therapeutic support for female patients with bulimia nervosa, binge eating disorder and eating disorders not otherwise specified: study protocol of a randomized controlled trial

Background: Disordered eating behavior and body dissatisfaction affect a large proportion of the Dutch population and account for severe psychological, physical and social morbidity. Yet, the threshold for seeking professional care is still high. In the Netherlands, only 7.5% of patients with bulimia nervosa and 33% of patients with anorexia nervosa are treated within the mental health care system. Easily accessible and low-threshold interventions, therefore, are needed urgently. The internet has great potential to offer such interventions. The aim of this study is to determine whether a web-based treatment program for patients with eating disorders can improve eating disorder psychopathology among female patients with bulimia nervosa, binge eating disorder and eating disorders not otherwise specified. Methods/design: This randomized controlled trial will compare the outcomes of an experimental treatment group to a waiting list control group. In the web-based treatment program, participants will communicate personally and asynchronously with their therapists exclusively via the internet. The first part of the program will focus on analyzing eating attitudes and behaviors. In the second part of the program participants will learn how to change their attitudes and behaviors. Participants assigned to the waiting list control group will receive no-reply email messages once every two weeks during the waiting period of 15 weeks, after which they can start the program. The primary outcome measure is an improvement in eating disorder psychopathology as determined by the Eating Disorder Examination Questionnaire. Secondary outcomes include improvements in body image, physical and mental health, body weight, self-esteem, quality of life, and social contacts. In addition, the participants’ motivation for treatment and their acceptability of the program and the therapeutic alliance will be measured. The study will follow the recommendations in the CONSORT statement relating to designing and reporting on RCTs. Discussion: This study protocol presents the design of a RCT for evaluating the effectiveness of a web-based treatment program using intensive therapeutic support for female patients with bulimia nervosa, binge eating disorder and eating disorders not otherwise specified

Computational and mathematical approaches to societal transitions

After an introduction of the theoretical framework and concepts of transition studies, this article gives an overview of how structural change in social systems has been studied from various disciplinary perspectives. This overview first leads to the conclusion that computational and mathematical approaches and their practical form, modeling, up till now, have been almost absent in the research and theorizing of structural change or transitions in social systems. Second, this review of the social science literature suggests numerous theoretical constructs relevant for transition modeling. Relevant concepts include the conceptualization of the micro-to-macro link, the importance of explaining both stability and change, quantitative and qualitative definitions of structural change, the use of dichotomies, synchronic and diachronic reasoning in explaining structural change, definitions of basic patterns of social change, the conceptualization of resistance to change and intentional and normative aspects of social change. This article employs these theoretical concepts to describe and discuss the models presented in this special issue in order to develop an understanding of what exactly entails a computational or mathematical approach to societal transitions

Cosmological lensing ratios with des Y1, SPT, and Planck

Correlations between tracers of the matter density field and gravitational lensing are sensitive to the evolution of the matter power spectrum and the expansion rate across cosmic time. Appropriately defined ratios of such correlation functions, on the other hand, depend only on the angular diameter distances to the tracer objects and to the gravitational lensing source planes. Because of their simple cosmological dependence, such ratios can exploit available signal-to-noise ratio down to small angular scales, even where directly modelling the correlation functions is difficult. We present a measurement of lensing ratios using galaxy position and lensing data from the Dark Energy Survey, and CMB lensing data from the South Pole Telescope and Planck, obtaining the highest precision lensing ratio measurements to date. Relative to the concordance CDM model, we find a best-fitting lensing ratio amplitude of A = 1.1 ± 0.1. We use the ratio measurements to generate cosmological constraints, focusing on the curvature parameter. We demonstrate that photometrically selected galaxies can be used to measure lensing ratios, and argue that future lensing ratio measurements with data from a combination of LSST and Stage-4 CMB experiments can be used to place interesting cosmological constraints, even after considering the systematic uncertainties associated with photometric redshift and galaxy shear estimation

The development of spontaneous facial responses to others’ emotions in infancy. An EMG study

Viewing facial expressions often evokes facial responses in the observer. These spontaneous facial reactions (SFRs) are believed to play an important role for social interactions. However, their developmental trajectory and the underlying neurocognitive mechanisms are still little understood. In the current study, 4- and 7-month old infants were presented with facial expressions of happiness, anger, and fear. Electromyography (EMG) was used to measure activation in muscles relevant for forming these expressions: zygomaticus major (smiling), corrugator supercilii (frowning), and frontalis (forehead raising). The results indicated no selective activation of the facial muscles for the expressions in 4-month-old infants. For 7-month-old infants, evidence for selective facial reactions was found especially for happy faces (leading to increased zygomaticus major activation) and fearful faces (leading to increased frontalis activation), while angry faces did not show a clear differential response. This suggests that emotional SFRs may be the result of complex neurocognitive mechanisms which lead to partial mimicry but are also likely to be influenced by evaluative processes. Such mechanisms seem to undergo important developments at least until the second half of the first year of life