Scientific challenges of convective-scale numerical weather prediction

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are increasing in resolution and becoming capable of explicitly representing individual convective storms. Is this increase in resolution leading to better forecasts? Unfortunately, we do not have sufficient theoretical understanding about this weather regime to make full use of these NWPs. After extensive efforts over the course of a decade, convective–scale weather forecasts with horizontal grid spacings of 1–5 km are now operational at national weather services around the world, accompanied by ensemble prediction systems (EPSs). However, though already operational, the capacity of forecasts for this scale is still to be fully exploited by overcoming the fundamental difficulty in prediction: the fully three–dimensional and turbulent nature of the atmosphere. The prediction of this scale is totally different from that of the synoptic scale (103 km) with slowly–evolving semi–geostrophic dynamics and relatively long predictability on the order of a few days. Even theoretically, very little is understood about the convective scale compared to our extensive knowledge of the synoptic-scale weather regime as a partial–differential equation system, as well as in terms of the fluid mechanics, predictability, uncertainties, and stochasticity. Furthermore, there is a requirement for a drastic modification of data assimilation methodologies, physics (e.g., microphysics), parameterizations, as well as the numerics for use at the convective scale. We need to focus on more fundamental theoretical issues: the Liouville principle and Bayesian probability for probabilistic forecasts; and more fundamental turbulence research to provide robust numerics for the full variety of turbulent flows. The present essay reviews those basic theoretical challenges as comprehensibly as possible. The breadth of the problems that we face is a challenge in itself: an attempt to reduce these into a single critical agenda should be avoided

Stable Isotope Labeling by Amino Acids in Cell Culture (SILAC) and Quantitative Comparison of the Membrane Proteomes of Self-renewing and Differentiating Human Embryonic Stem Cells*S⃞

Stable isotope labeling by amino acids in cell culture (SILAC) is a powerful quantitative proteomics platform for comprehensive characterization of complex biological systems. However, the potential of SILAC-based approaches has not been fully utilized in human embryonic stem cell (hESC) research mainly because of the complex nature of hESC culture conditions. Here we describe complete SILAC labeling of hESCs with fully preserved pluripotency, self-renewal capabilities, and overall proteome status that was quantitatively analyzed to a depth of 1556 proteins and 527 phosphorylation events. SILAC-labeled hESCs appear to be perfectly suitable for functional studies, and we exploited a SILAC-based proteomics strategy for discovery of hESC-specific surface markers. We determined and quantitatively compared the membrane proteomes of the self-renewing versus differentiating cells of two distinct human embryonic stem cell lines. Of the 811 identified membrane proteins, six displayed significantly higher expression levels in the undifferentiated state compared with differentiating cells. This group includes the established marker CD133/Prominin-1 as well as novel candidates for hESC surface markers: Glypican-4, Neuroligin-4, ErbB2, receptor-type tyrosine-protein phosphatase ζ (PTPRZ), and Glycoprotein M6B. Our study also revealed 17 potential markers of hESC differentiation as their corresponding protein expression levels displayed a dramatic increase in differentiated embryonic stem cell populations