An economic evaluation of the osmoregulation gene technology to the Australian wheat industry

Episodes of rainfall irregularity and soil moisture deficit have focused attention on the widespread limitation of water supply on winter cereal crop production in Australia. This has motivated a number of efforts at breeding for improved drought tolerance. A recent example involves a cellular adaptation which mitigates water loss through solute accumulation (osmoregulation or osmotic adjustment). An assessment of the performance of osmoregulation yield response in the presence of climate change found that wheat cultivars with this gene are unlikely to be adversely affected by hotter and drier conditions across the wheat belt. The results of an economic evaluation of potential future innovations (wheat cultivars) from the osmoregulation gene technology are that for Australia the net present value could range from $388 million to$3.6 billion, depending on the adoption of wheat cultivars with the gene. Associated benefit-cost ratios ranged from 43:1 to 390:1, and internal rates of return were 16% to 27%. Even under pessimistic assumptions the returns are quite healthy. For NSW-only adoption, internal rates of return ranged from 10% to 22%. This osmoregulation technology has the potential for inclusion in wheat cultivars bred for other purposes, and for other crops. As such it has implications for agricultural plant breeders and farmers both in Australia and overseas, and there are substantial potential spillover benefits.economic evaluation, wheat breeding, osmoregulation, Crop Production/Industries, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

Point vibration measurements for the detection of shallow-buried objects

AbstractA major UK initiative, entitled ‘Mapping the Underworld’, is seeking to address the serious social, environmental and economic consequences arising from an inability to locate accurately and comprehensively the buried utility service infrastructure without resorting to extensive excavations. Mapping the Underworld aims to develop and prove the efficacy of a multi-sensor device for accurate remote buried utility service detection, location and, where possible, identification. One of the technologies to be incorporated in the device is low-frequency vibro-acoustics, and application of this technique for detecting buried infrastructure is currently being investigated. Here, the potential for making a number of simple point vibration measurements in order to detect shallow-buried objects, in particular plastic pipes, is explored. Point measurements can be made relatively quickly without the need for arrays of surface sensors, which can be expensive, time-consuming to deploy, and sometimes impractical in congested areas.At low frequencies, the ground behaves as a simple single-degree-of-freedom (mass–spring) system with a well-defined resonance, the frequency of which will depend on the density and elastic properties of the soil locally. This resonance will be altered by the presence of a buried object whose properties differ from the surrounding soil. It is this behavior which can be exploited in order to detect the presence of a buried object, provided it is buried at a sufficiently shallow depth. The theoretical background is described and preliminary measurements are made both on a dedicated buried pipe rig and on the ground over a domestic waste pipe. Preliminary findings suggest that, for shallow-buried pipes, a measurement of this kind could be a quick and useful adjunct to more conventional methods of buried pipe detection

The normative underpinnings of population-level alcohol use: An individual-level simulation model

Background. By defining what is “normal,” appropriate, expected, and unacceptable, social norms shape human behavior. However, the individual-level mechanisms through which social norms impact population-level trends in health-relevant behaviors are not well understood. Aims. To test the ability of social norms mechanisms to predict changes in population-level drinking patterns. Method. An individual-level model was developed to simulate dynamic normative mechanisms and behavioral rules underlying drinking behavior over time. The model encompassed descriptive and injunctive drinking norms and their impact on frequency and quantity of alcohol use. A microsynthesis initialized in 1979 was used as a demographically representative synthetic U.S. population. Three experiments were performed in order to test the modelled normative mechanisms. Results. Overall, the experiments showed limited influence of normative interventions on population-level alcohol use. An increase in the desire to drink led to the most meaningful changes in the population’s drinking behavior. The findings of the experiments underline the importance of autonomy, that is, the degree to which an individual is susceptible to normative influence. Conclusion. The model was able to predict theoretically plausible changes in drinking patterns at the population level through the impact of social mechanisms. Future applications of the model could be used to plan norms interventions pertaining to alcohol use as well as other health behaviors

Using Markov Models and Statistics to Learn, Extract, Fuse, and Detect Patterns in Raw Data

Many systems are partially stochastic in nature. We have derived data driven approaches for extracting stochastic state machines (Markov models) directly from observed data. This chapter provides an overview of our approach with numerous practical applications. We have used this approach for inferring shipping patterns, exploiting computer system side-channel information, and detecting botnet activities. For contrast, we include a related data-driven statistical inferencing approach that detects and localizes radiation sources.Comment: Accepted by 2017 International Symposium on Sensor Networks, Systems and Securit

Thiophene-based poly(arylene ether ketone)s: 2. Thermal and mechanical properties of amorphous systems using bis(p-fluorobenzoyl)aryl monomers

A series of high molar mass and controlled molar mass poly(aryl ether ketone)s were synthesized based on bis(p-fluoro-benzoyl)aryl monomers and 4,4'-isopropylidenediphenol. The central aromatic unit of the activated bishalide was varied to include 1,4 phenylene, 2,5 thiophene, and 1,3 phenylene to systematically change the exocyclic bond angle from 180˚ to 148˚ to 120˚, respectively. The thermal, dynamic mechanical and mechanical properties of the three polymers were determined for the controlled molar mass materials. The glass transition temperature of the controlled molar mass 2,5-thiophene based polymer was 147˚ C compared to 149˚ C for 1,3-phenylene based polymer and 162˚ C for the 1,4-phenylene based polymer. The thermal stability of poly(BFTh-BisA) was similar to that of poly(1,3-BFBBisA) and poly(1,4-BFB-BisA). Two sub T loss dispersions were measured for each of the three polymers. The pronounced y relaxation for poly(BFTh-BisA), poly(1,4- BFB-BisA), and poly(1,3-BFB-BisA), has an activation energy of 7.5, 9.0, and 10 kcal/mole, respectively. The activation energy of β dispersion for poly(BFTh-BisA) is 16 kcal/mole. The Young's modulus is 2.9 GPa, 3.1 GPa and 3.6 GPa for poly(1,4-BFB-BisA), poly(2,5-BFTh-BisA) and poly(1,3-BFB-BisA), respectively

Can social norms explain long-term trends in alcohol use? Insights from inverse generative social science

Social psychological theory posits entities and mechanisms that attempt to explain observable differences in behavior. For example, dual process theory suggests that an agent's behavior is influenced by intentional (arising from reasoning involving attitudes and perceived norms) and unintentional (i.e., habitual) processes. In order to pass the generative sufficiency test as an explanation of alcohol use, we argue that the theory should be able to explain notable patterns in alcohol use that exist in the population, e.g., the distinct differences in drinking prevalence and average quantities consumed by males and females. In this study, we further develop and apply inverse generative social science (iGSS) methods to an existing agent-based model of dual process theory of alcohol use. Using iGSS, implemented within a multi-objective grammar-based genetic program, we search through the space of model structures to identify whether a single parsimonious model can best explain both male and female drinking, or whether separate and more complex models are needed. Focusing on alcohol use trends in New York State, we identify an interpretable model structure that achieves high goodness-of-fit for both male and female drinking patterns simultaneously, and which also validates successfully against reserved trend data. This structure offers a novel interpretation of the role of norms in formulating drinking intentions, but the structure's theoretical validity is questioned by its suggestion that individuals with low autonomy would act against perceived descriptive norms. Improved evidence on the distribution of autonomy in the population is needed to understand whether this finding is substantive or is a modeling artefact

Assessing the impact of tailored biosecurity advice on farmer behaviour and pathogen presence in beef herds in England and Wales

The term ‘biosecurity’ encompasses many measures farmers can take to reduce the risk of pathogen incursion or spread. As the best strategy will vary between settings, veterinarians play an important role in assessing risk and providing advice, but effectiveness requires farmer acceptance and implementation. The aim of this study was to assess the effectiveness of specifically-tailored biosecurity advice packages in reducing endemic pathogen presence on UK beef suckler farms. One hundred and sixteen farms recruited by 10 veterinary practices were followed for three years. Farms were randomly allocated to intervention (receiving specifically-tailored advice, with veterinarians and farmers collaborating to develop an improved biosecurity strategy) or control (receiving general advice) groups. A spreadsheet-based tool was used annually to attribute a score to each farm reflecting risk of entry or spread of bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV), bovine herpesvirus-1 (BHV1), Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP), Leptospira interrogans serovar hardjo (L. hardjo) and Mycobacterium bovis (M. bovis). Objectives of these analyses were to identify evidence of reduction in risk behaviours during the study, as well as evidence of reductions in pathogen presence, as indications of effectiveness. Risk behaviours and pathogen prevalences were examined across study years, and on intervention compared with control farms, using descriptive statistics and multilevel regression. There were significant reductions in risk scores for all five pathogens, regardless of intervention status, in every study year compared with the outset. Animals on intervention farms were significantly less likely than those on control farms to be seropositive for BVDV in years 2 and 3 and for L. hardjo in year 3 of the study. Variations by study year in animal-level odds of seropositivity to BHV1 or MAP were not associated with farm intervention status. All farms had significantly reduced odds of BHV1 seropositivity in year 2 than at the outset. Variations in farm-level MAP seropositivity were not associated with intervention status. There were increased odds of M. bovis on intervention farms compared with control farms at the end of the study. Results suggest a structured annual risk assessment process, conducted as a collaboration between veterinarian and farmer, is valuable in encouraging improved biosecurity practices. There were some indications, but not conclusive evidence, that tailored biosecurity advice packages have potential to reduce pathogen presence. These findings will inform development of a collaborative approach to biosecurity between veterinarians and farmers, including adoption of cost-effective strategies effective across pathogens

Implementing evidence-based recommended practices for the management of patients with mild traumatic brain injuries in Australian emergency care departments: study protocol for a cluster randomised controlled trial

Background: Mild head injuries commonly present to emergency departments. The challenges facing clinicians in emergency departments include identifying which patients have traumatic brain injury, and which patients can safely be sent home. Traumatic brain injuries may exist with subtle symptoms or signs, but can still lead to adverse outcomes. Despite the existence of several high quality clinical practice guidelines, internationally and in Australia, research shows inconsistent implementation of these recommendations. The aim of this trial is to test the effectiveness of a targeted, theory- and evidence-informed implementation intervention to increase the uptake of three key clinical recommendations regarding the emergency department management of adult patients (18 years of age or older) who present following mild head injuries (concussion), compared with passive dissemination of these recommendations. The primary objective is to establish whether the intervention is effective in increasing the percentage of patients for which appropriate post-traumatic amnesia screening is performed. Methods/design: The design of this study is a cluster randomised trial. We aim to include 34 Australian 24-hour emergency departments, which will be randomised to an intervention or control group. Control group departments will receive a copy of the most recent Australian evidence-based clinical practice guideline on the acute management of patients with mild head injuries. The intervention group will receive an implementation intervention based on an analysis of influencing factors, which include local stakeholder meetings, identification of nursing and medical opinion leaders in each site, a train-the-trainer day and standardised education and interactive workshops delivered by the opinion leaders during a 3 month period of time. Clinical practice outcomes will be collected retrospectively from medical records by independent chart auditors over the 2 month period following intervention delivery (patient level outcomes). In consenting hospitals, eligible patients will be recruited for a follow-up telephone interview conducted by trained researchers. A cost-effectiveness analysis and process evaluation using mixed-methods will be conducted. Sample size calculations are based on including 30 patients on average per department. Outcome assessors will be blinded to group allocation

Oral health and human papillomavirus-associated head and neck squamous cell carcinoma

BACKGROUND: Indicators of poor oral health, including smoking, have been associated with increased risk of head and neck squamous cell carcinoma, especially oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC), yet few studies have examined whether this association is modified by human papillomavirus (HPV) status. METHODS: Data from interviews and tumor HPV status from a large population-based case-control study, the Carolina Head and Neck Cancer Study (CHANCE), were used to estimate the association between oral health indicators and smoking among 102 HPV-positive patients and 145 HPV-negative patients with OPSCC and 1396 controls. HPV status was determined by p16INK4a (p16) immunohistochemistry. Unconditional, multinomial logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) for all oral health indictors adjusting for important covariates. RESULTS: Routine dental examinations were associated with a decreased risk of both HPV-negative OPSCC (OR, 0.52; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.35-0.76) and HPV-positive OPSCC (OR, 0.55; 95% CI, 0.36-.86). Tooth mobility (a proxy for periodontal disease) increased the risk of HPV-negative disease (OR, 1.70; 95% CI, 1.18-2.43) slightly more than the risk for HPV-positive disease (OR, 1.45; 95% CI, 0.95-2.20). Ten or more pack-years of cigarette smoking were strongly associated with an increased risk of HPV-negative OPSCC (OR, 4.26; 95% CI, 2.85-6.37) and were associated less with an increased risk of HPV-positive OPSCC (OR, 1.62; 95% CI, 1.10-2.38). CONCLUSIONS: Although HPV-positive and HPV-negative HNSCC differ significantly with respect to etiology and tumorigenesis, the current findings suggest a similar pattern of association between poor oral health, frequency of dental examinations, and both HPV-positive and HPV-negative OPSCC. Future research is required to elucidate interactions between poor oral health, tobacco use, and HPV in the development of OPSCC. Cancer 2017;71–80. © 2016 American Cancer Society