The emergence of insect resistance in Bt-corn: implication of resistance management information under uncertainty

"The successful management of transgenic technology is likely to depend on the economic behavioral response of farmers to the regulated use of transgenic crops. A well-studied example is the widespread use of Bt-corn, in the United States, and elsewhere, to control the European Corn Borer, a major corn pest. The extensive use of Bt-corn has led to concerns about the emergence of insect resistance. The United States Environment Protection Agency addressed this potential problem by developing an insect resistance management strategy, based, in part, on complex mathematical models using detailed biological assumptions about the population genetics and life history of the European Corn Borer. However, seed companies and others have sometimes used simpler deterministic profit models to justify the economics of Bt-corn to potential growers. Therefore an over reliance, by regulatory agencies, on complex modeling approaches may obscure the likely economic behavioral response of farmers who rely on these less complex models. However, the determinants of adoption are numerous, profit being one of them. We develop a simple model for the spread of resistance based on the logistic growth equation and use it to investigate the effect of uncertainty on farmer decisions to plant Bt-corn and follow EPA management rules. The model results suggest that planting Bt-corn is an optimal strategy under the type of uncertainty assumed in the model and that short-term economic behavior is likely to lead to the Environment Protection Agency management rules not being followed. Our results add weight to existing work on this problem." Authors' AbstractBt-corn, logistic growth, Monte Carlo methods, Corn, Environmental protection, Economics Methodology,

Ecological risks of novel environmental crop technologies using phytoremediation as an example:

"Phytoremediation is the use of living plants, known as hyperaccumulators which absorb unusually large amounts of metals in comparison to other plants. The use of classical plant breeding and new molecular techniques offers great potential to develop crops with the ability to clean up polluted sites. While these technologies have gained widespread attention, prior to commercial development, there are risks that must be considered – only a few of which have received even modest examination. Therefore, the focus of this working paper is to explore specific risks associated with phytoremediation and suggest ways in which these risks can be managed so that new, novel, and innovative plant technologies may be applied to provide low cost and efficient environmental solutions. " Authors' AbstractPhytoextraction, Phytomining,

Incorporating project uncertainty in novel environmental biotechnologies: illustrated using phytoremediation

"Pollution of the environment by metals and organic contaminants is an intractable global problem, with cleanup costs running into billions of dollars using current engineering technologies. The availability of alternative, cheap and effective technologies would significantly improve the prospects of cleaning-up metal contaminated sites. Phytoremediation has been proposed as an economical and ‘green' method of exploiting plants to extract or degrade the contaminants in the soil. To date, the majority of phytoremediation efforts have been directed at leaping the biological, biochemical and agronomic hurdles to deliver a working technology, with scant attention to the economic outlook other than simple estimates of the cost advantages of phytoremediation over other techniques. In this paper we use a deterministic actuarial model to show that uncertainty in project success (the possibility that full clean up may not be realized) may significantly increase the perceived costs of remediation works for decision-makers." Authors' Abstractbiotechnology, Soil contaminants, Environmental remediation Economic aspects, Industrial crop technologies,

Aligning physical elements with persons' attitude: an approach using Rasch measurement theory

Affective engineering uses mathematical models to convert the information obtained from persons' attitude to physical elements into an ergonomic design. However, applications in the domain have not in many cases met measurement assumptions. This paper proposes a novel approach based on Rasch measurement theory to overcome the problem. The research demonstrates that if data fit the model, further variables can be added to a scale. An empirical study was designed to determine the range of compliance where consumers could obtain an impression of a moisturizer cream when touching some product containers. Persons, variables and stimulus objects were parameterised independently on a linear continuum. The results showed that a calibrated scale preserves comparability although incorporating further variables

Security analysis for agroterrorism: applying the threat, vulnerability, consequence framework to developing countries

"We examine access to, use of, and participation in decisions on improved water supply in the Volta basin of Ghana, one of the first countries to introduce a community-based approach to rural water supply on a large scale. While 71 percent of the households interviewed have access to improved water, 43 percent of these continue to use unsafe sources as their main domestic water source. Our results indicate that quality perceptions and opportunity costs play an important role in households' choice of water source. The effect of prices and income levels on this choice differs according to the pricing system used. Given that supply characteristics such as the location and pricing system affect household decisions to use the improved source, households may try to influence these characteristics in their favor during the community decision-making process for the improved source. However, less than 40 percent of the households interviewed participated in decisions on location or technology. We argue that the decision whether to participate depends on three main factors: (i) the household's bargaining power, (ii) the potential benefits from influencing outcomes, and (iii) the cost of participation, (mainly opportunity cost of time). Our results indicate that bargaining power matters In some developing countries the potential exists for agroterrorism to cause widespread disruption through loss of sustenance, income and production. Defense of agriculture may also be problematic because of the lack stability and basic biosecurity infrastructure for the detection and prevention of diseases or invasive species. Currently new methodological approaches for terrorism risk assessments are being actively explored for resource prioritization. One such methodology for risk based allocation of resources is Threat, Vulnerability, and Consequence (TVC) Analysis. A qualitative application of the TVC framework is used to analyze the risk of agroterrorism in developing countries relative to industrialized countries. The analysis suggests that evidence exists to demonstrate general terrorist threats, vulnerability of agriculture and, depending on the country, potentially serious consequences arising from argoterrorism. Where specific threats emerge, action may be needed by the international community to strengthen biosecurity systems in developing countries through: increasing global cooperation, capacity building in monitoring, remediation and risk analysis technologies, and the dissemination of novel technologies for control of pests and diseases." Authors' AbstractCapacity strengthening, Water-supply Management, Agroterrorism, Biosecurity, Risk analysis, resource allocation, Terrorism, Governance,

Reliability and responsiveness of measures of pain in people with osteoarthritis of the knee: a psychometric evaluation

PURPOSE: To examine the fit between data from the Short Form McGill Pain Questionnaire (SF-MPQ-2) and the Rasch model, and to explore the reliability and internal responsiveness of measures of pain in people with knee osteoarthritis. METHODS: Participants with knee osteoarthritis completed the SF-MPQ-2, Intermittent and Constant Osteoarthritis Pain questionnaire (ICOAP) and painDETECT. Participants were sent the same questionnaires 3 and 6 months later. RESULTS: Fit to the Rasch model was not achieved for the SF-MPQ-2 Total scale. The Continuous subscale yielded adequate fit statistics after splitting item 10 on uniform DIF for gender, and removing item 9. The Intermittent subscale fit the Rasch model after rescoring items. The Neuropathic subscale had relatively good fit to the model. Test-retest reliability was satisfactory for most scales using both original and Rasch scoring ranging from fair to substantial. Effect sizes ranged from 0.13 to 1.79 indicating good internal responsiveness for most scales. CONCLUSIONS: These findings support the use of ICOAP subscales as reliable and responsive measure of pain in people with knee osteoarthritis. The MPQ-SF-2 subscales found to be acceptable alternatives. Implications for Rehabilitation The McGill Pain Questionnaire short version 2 is not a unidimensional scale in people with knee osteoarthritis, whereas three of the subscales are unidimensional. The McGill Pain Questionnaire short version 2 Affective subscale does not have good measurement properties for people with knee osteoarthritis. The McGill Pain Questionnaire short version 2 and the Intermittent and Constant Osteoarthritis Pain scales can be used to assess change over time. The painDETECT performs better as a screening measure than as an outcome measure

Conceptualising computerized adaptive testing for measurement of latent variables associated with physical objects

The notion of that more or less of a physical feature affects in different degrees the users' impression with regard to an underlying attribute of a product has frequently been applied in affective engineering. However, those attributes exist only as a premise that cannot directly be measured and, therefore, inferences based on their assessment are error-prone. To establish and improve measurement of latent attributes it is presented in this paper the concept of a stochastic framework using the Rasch model for a wide range of independent variables referred to as an item bank. Based on an item bank, computerized adaptive testing (CAT) can be developed. A CAT system can converge into a sequence of items bracketing to convey information at a user's particular endorsement level. It is through item banking and CAT that the financial benefits of using the Rasch model in affective engineering can be realised

Observation of the Baryonic Flavor-Changing Neutral Current Decay Lambda_b -> Lambda mu+ mu-

We report the first observation of the baryonic flavor-changing neutral current decay Lambda_b -> Lambda mu+ mu- with 24 signal events and a statistical significance of 5.8 Gaussian standard deviations. This measurement uses ppbar collisions data sample corresponding to 6.8fb-1 at sqrt{s}=1.96TeV collected by the CDF II detector at the Tevatron collider. The total and differential branching ratios for Lambda_b -> Lambda mu+ mu- are measured. We find B(Lambda_b -> Lambda mu+ mu-) = [1.73+-0.42(stat)+-0.55(syst)] x 10^{-6}. We also report the first measurement of the differential branching ratio of B_s -> phi mu+ mu- using 49 signal events. In addition, we report branching ratios for B+ -> K+ mu+ mu-, B0 -> K0 mu+ mu-, and B -> K*(892) mu+ mu- decays.Comment: 8 pages, 2 figures, 4 tables. Submitted to Phys. Rev. Let

Measurements of branching fraction ratios and CP-asymmetries in suppressed B^- -> D(-> K^+ pi^-)K^- and B^- -> D(-> K^+ pi^-)pi^- decays

We report the first reconstruction in hadron collisions of the suppressed decays B^- -> D(-> K^+ pi^-)K^- and B^- -> D(-> K^+ pi^-)pi^-, sensitive to the CKM phase gamma, using data from 7 fb^-1 of integrated luminosity collected by the CDF II detector at the Tevatron collider. We reconstruct a signal for the B^- -> D(-> K^+ pi^-)K^- suppressed mode with a significance of 3.2 standard deviations, and measure the ratios of the suppressed to favored branching fractions R(K) = [22.0 \pm 8.6(stat)\pm 2.6(syst)]\times 10^-3, R^+(K) = [42.6\pm 13.7(stat)\pm 2.8(syst)]\times 10^-3, R^-(K)= [3.8\pm 10.3(stat)\pm 2.7(syst]\times 10^-3, as well as the direct CP-violating asymmetry A(K) = -0.82\pm 0.44(stat)\pm 0.09(syst) of this mode. Corresponding quantities for B^- -> D(-> K^+ pi^-)pi^- decay are also reported.Comment: 8 pages, 1 figure, accepted by Phys.Rev.D Rapid Communications for Publicatio