3. Eventos hidrológicos extremos en la cuenca amazónica peruana: presente y futuro

Recientemente, severos eventos hidrológicos extremos han ocurrido en el Río Amazonas, como intensas sequías e inundaciones, las cuales han perjudicado a las principales ciudades amazónicas y a las zonas rurales. Esos eventos hacen parte de una tendencia hacia estiajes siempre más bajos. Mientras que el caudal más bajo fue observado en septiembre de 2010 (8 300m3/s) en la estación hidrométrica de Tamshiyacu, una rápida transición hacia uno de los caudales más altos fue observado en abril 2011 (45 000 m3/s). Finalmente en abril de 2012, durante el siguiente periodo de aguas altas, el Río Amazonas experimentó su caudal histórico más elevado (55 400m3/s). Los modelos climatológicos e hidrológicos permiten prever caudales futuros. Para la mitad del siglo 21 se calcula un aumento de 7% de los caudales de crecida, lo que significa extremos aún mayores que los actuales e inundaciones más amplias.La région du fleuve Amazone a récemment connu de sévères événements hydrologiques extrêmes: des inondations et des sécheresses qui ont porté préjudice tant aux villes amazoniennes qu’aux zones rurales. Ces événements s’inscrivent dans une tendance vers des étiages toujours plus prononcés. Alors que le débit le plus bas a été observé en septembre 2008 (8 300 m3/s) a la station hydrométrique de Tamshiyacu, celui-ci a été rapidement suivi d’une rapide transition vers l’un des débits les plus hauts en avril 2011 (45 000 m3/s). Finalement en avril 2012, lors de la saison suivante de hautes eaux, le fleuve Amazone a présenté un débit historique très élevé (55 400 m3/s). Les modelés climatologiques et hydrologiques permettent de prévoir les débits futurs. D’ici la moitié du 21ème siècle, on estime qu’il y aura une augmentation de 7% des débits de crue, ce qui signifie des extrêmes encore plus élevés qu’actuellement et des inondations de plus grande ampleur.The Amazon River has recently experienced severe extreme hydrological events -such as floods and droughts- that have harmed both the main Amazonian cities as rural areas. These events are part of a continuous trend towards low flow. While the lowest rate was observed in September 2008 (8,300 m3/s) at the Tamshiyacu hydrometric station, it was observed a rapid transition to one of the highest rates in April 2011 (45,000m3/s). In April 2012, during the next period of high water, the Amazon River experienced it highest flow in its history (55 400 m3/s). Climatological and hydrological models are used to predict future rates. An increase of 7% of flood flows is calculated by the middle of the 21st century, which means even greater extreme floods than the current ones and larger

The state of the Martian climate

60°N was +2.0°C, relative to the 1981–2010 average value (Fig. 5.1). This marks a new high for the record. The average annual surface air temperature (SAT) anomaly for 2016 for land stations north of starting in 1900, and is a significant increase over the previous highest value of +1.2°C, which was observed in 2007, 2011, and 2015. Average global annual temperatures also showed record values in 2015 and 2016. Currently, the Arctic is warming at more than twice the rate of lower latitudes

A physiological time analysis of the duration of the gonotrophic cycle of Anopheles pseudopunctipennis and its implications for malaria transmission in Bolivia

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The length of the gonotrophic cycle varies the vectorial capacity of a mosquito vector and therefore its exact estimation is important in epidemiological modelling. Because the gonotrophic cycle length depends on temperature, its estimation can be satisfactorily computed by means of physiological time analysis.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A model of physiological time was developed and calibrated for <it>Anopheles pseudopunctipennis</it>, one of the main malaria vectors in South America, using data from laboratory temperature controlled experiments. The model was validated under varying temperatures and could predict the time elapsed from blood engorgement to oviposition according to the temperature.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In laboratory experiments, a batch of <it>An. pseudopunctipennis </it>fed at the same time may lay eggs during several consecutive nights (2–3 at high temperature and > 10 at low temperature). The model took into account such pattern and was used to predict the range of the gonotrophic cycle duration of <it>An. pseudopunctipennis </it>in four characteristic sites of Bolivia. It showed that the predicted cycle duration for <it>An. pseudopunctipennis </it>exhibited a seasonal pattern, with higher variances where climatic conditions were less stable. Predicted mean values of the (minimum) duration ranged from 3.3 days up to > 10 days, depending on the season and the geographical location. The analysis of ovaries development stages of field collected biting mosquitoes indicated that the phase 1 of Beklemishev might be of significant duration for <it>An. pseudopunctipennis</it>. The gonotrophic cycle length of <it>An. pseudopunctipennis </it>correlates with malaria transmission patterns observed in Bolivia which depend on locations and seasons.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>A new presentation of cycle length results taking into account the number of ovipositing nights and the proportion of mosquitoes laying eggs is suggested. The present approach using physiological time analysis might serve as an outline to other similar studies and allows the inclusion of temperature effects on the gonotrophic cycle in transmission models. However, to better explore the effects of temperature on malaria transmission, the others parameters of the vectorial capacity should be included in the analysis and modelled accordingly.</p

State of the climate in 2013

In 2013, the vast majority of the monitored climate variables reported here maintained trends established in recent decades. ENSO was in a neutral state during the entire year, remaining mostly on the cool side of neutral with modest impacts on regional weather patterns around the world. This follows several years dominated by the effects of either La Niña or El Niño events. According to several independent analyses, 2013 was again among the 10 warmest years on record at the global scale, both at the Earths surface and through the troposphere. Some regions in the Southern Hemisphere had record or near-record high temperatures for the year. Australia observed its hottest year on record, while Argentina and New Zealand reported their second and third hottest years, respectively. In Antarctica, Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station reported its highest annual temperature since records began in 1957. At the opposite pole, the Arctic observed its seventh warmest year since records began in the early 20th century. At 20-m depth, record high temperatures were measured at some permafrost stations on the North Slope of Alaska and in the Brooks Range. In the Northern Hemisphere extratropics, anomalous meridional atmospheric circulation occurred throughout much of the year, leading to marked regional extremes of both temperature and precipitation. Cold temperature anomalies during winter across Eurasia were followed by warm spring temperature anomalies, which were linked to a new record low Eurasian snow cover extent in May. Minimum sea ice extent in the Arctic was the sixth lowest since satellite observations began in 1979. Including 2013, all seven lowest extents on record have occurred in the past seven years. Antarctica, on the other hand, had above-average sea ice extent throughout 2013, with 116 days of new daily high extent records, including a new daily maximum sea ice area of 19.57 million km2 reached on 1 October. ENSO-neutral conditions in the eastern central Pacific Ocean and a negative Pacific decadal oscillation pattern in the North Pacific had the largest impacts on the global sea surface temperature in 2013. The North Pacific reached a historic high temperature in 2013 and on balance the globally-averaged sea surface temperature was among the 10 highest on record. Overall, the salt content in nearsurface ocean waters increased while in intermediate waters it decreased. Global mean sea level continued to rise during 2013, on pace with a trend of 3.2 mm yr-1 over the past two decades. A portion of this trend (0.5 mm yr-1) has been attributed to natural variability associated with the Pacific decadal oscillation as well as to ongoing contributions from the melting of glaciers and ice sheets and ocean warming. Global tropical cyclone frequency during 2013 was slightly above average with a total of 94 storms, although the North Atlantic Basin had its quietest hurricane season since 1994. In the Western North Pacific Basin, Super Typhoon Haiyan, the deadliest tropical cyclone of 2013, had 1-minute sustained winds estimated to be 170 kt (87.5 m s-1) on 7 November, the highest wind speed ever assigned to a tropical cyclone. High storm surge was also associated with Haiyan as it made landfall over the central Philippines, an area where sea level is currently at historic highs, increasing by 200 mm since 1970. In the atmosphere, carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide all continued to increase in 2013. As in previous years, each of these major greenhouse gases once again reached historic high concentrations. In the Arctic, carbon dioxide and methane increased at the same rate as the global increase. These increases are likely due to export from lower latitudes rather than a consequence of increases in Arctic sources, such as thawing permafrost. At Mauna Loa, Hawaii, for the first time since measurements began in 1958, the daily average mixing ratio of carbon dioxide exceeded 400 ppm on 9 May. The state of these variables, along with dozens of others, and the 2013 climate conditions of regions around the world are discussed in further detail in this 24th edition of the State of the Climate series. © 2014, American Meteorological Society. All rights reserved