Erratum: Higher order elicitability and Osband's principle.

This note corrects conditions in Proposition 3.4 and Theorem 5.2(ii) and comments on imprecisions in Propositions 4.2 and 4.4 in Fissler and Ziegel (2016)

Calibration of double stripe 3D laser scanner systems using planarity and orthogonality constraints

In this study, 3D scanning systems that utilize a pair of laser stripes are studied. Three types of scanning systems are implemented to scan environments, rough surfaces of near planar objects and small 3D objects. These scanners make use of double laser stripes to minimize the undesired effect of occlusions. Calibration of these scanning systems is crucially important for the alignment of 3D points which are reconstructed from different stripes. In this paper, the main focus is on the calibration problem, following a treatment on the pre-processing of stripe projections using dynamic programming and localization of 2D image points with sub-pixel accuracy. The 3D points corresponding to laser stripes are used in an optimization procedure that imposes geometrical constraints such as coplanarities and orthogonalities. It is shown that, calibration procedure proposed here, significantly improves the alignment of 3D points scanned using two laser stripes

Quantitative analysis of regional distribution of tau pathology with 11C-PBB3-PET in a clinical setting.

PURPOSE The recent developments of tau-positron emission tomography (tau-PET) enable in vivo assessment of neuropathological tau aggregates. Among the tau-specific tracers, the application of 11C-pyridinyl-butadienyl-benzothiazole 3 (11C-PBB3) in PET shows high sensitivity to Alzheimer disease (AD)-related tau deposition. The current study investigates the regional tau load in patients within the AD continuum, biomarker-negative individuals (BN) and patients with suspected non-AD pathophysiology (SNAP) using 11C-PBB3-PET. MATERIALS AND METHODS A total of 23 memory clinic outpatients with recent decline of episodic memory were examined using 11C-PBB3-PET. Pittsburg compound B (11C-PIB) PET was available for 17, 18F-flurodeoxyglucose (18F-FDG) PET for 16, and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) protein levels for 11 patients. CSF biomarkers were considered abnormal based on Aβ42 ( 450 ng/L). The PET biomarkers were classified as positive or negative using statistical parametric mapping (SPM) analysis and visual assessment. Using the amyloid/tau/neurodegeneration (A/T/N) scheme, patients were grouped as within the AD continuum, SNAP, and BN based on amyloid and neurodegeneration status. The 11C-PBB3 load detected by PET was compared among the groups using both atlas-based and voxel-wise analyses. RESULTS Seven patients were identified as within the AD continuum, 10 SNAP and 6 BN. In voxel-wise analysis, significantly higher 11C-PBB3 binding was observed in the AD continuum group compared to the BN patients in the cingulate gyrus, tempo-parieto-occipital junction and frontal lobe. Compared to the SNAP group, patients within the AD continuum had a considerably increased 11C-PBB3 uptake in the posterior cingulate cortex. There was no significant difference between SNAP and BN groups. The atlas-based analysis supported the outcome of the voxel-wise quantification analysis. CONCLUSION Our results suggest that 11C-PBB3-PET can effectively analyze regional tau load and has the potential to differentiate patients in the AD continuum group from the BN and SNAP group

Physical activity to improve cognition in older adults: can physical activity programs enriched with cognitive challenges enhance the effects? A systematic review and meta-analysis

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Multinomial VaR Backtests : A simple implicit approach to backtesting expected shortfall

Under the Fundamental Review of the Trading Book, capital charges are based on the coherent Expected Shortfall (ES) risk measure, which is sensitive to tail risk. We argue that backtesting of the forecasting models used to derive ES can be based on a multinomial test of Value-at-Risk (VaR) exceptions at several levels. Using simulation experiments with heavy-tailed distributions and GARCH volatility models, we design a statistical procedure to show that at least four VaR levels are required to obtain tests for misspecified trading book models that are more powerful than single-level (or even two-level) binomial exception tests. A traffic-light system for model approval is proposed and illustrated with three real-data examples spanning the 2008 financial crisis

Non-verbal IQ Gains from Relational Operant Training Explain Variance in Educational Attainment: An Active-Controlled Feasibility Study

Research suggests that training relational operant patterns of behavior can lead to increases in general cognitive ability and educational outcomes. Most studies to date have been under-powered and included proxy measures of educational attainment. We attempted to extend previous findings with increased experimental control in younger children (aged 6.9–10.1 years). Participants (N = 49) were assigned to either a relational training or chess control group. Over 5 months, teachers assigned class time to complete either relational training or play chess. Those who were assigned relational training gained 8.9 non-verbal IQ (NVIQ) points, while those in the control condition recorded no gains (dppc2 = .99). Regression analyses revealed that post-training NVIQ predicted reading test scores (conducted approximately 1 month later) over and above baseline NVIQ in the experimental condition only, consistent with what we might expect in a full test of far transfer towards educational outcomes

Elicitability and identifiability of systemic risk measures and other set-valued functionals

This paper is concerned with a two-fold objective. Firstly, we establish elicitability and identifiability results for systemic risk measures introduced in Feinstein, Rudloff and Weber (2017). Specifying the entire set of capital allocations adequate to render a financial system acceptable, these systemic risk measures are examples of set-valued functionals. A functional is elicitable (identifiable) if it is the unique minimiser (zero) of an expected scoring function (identification function). Elicitability and identifiability are essential for forecast ranking and validation, M- and Z-estimation, both possibly in a regression framework. To account for the set-valued nature of the systemic risk measures mentioned above, we secondly introduce a theoretical framework of elicitability and identifiability of set-valued functionals. It distinguishes between exhaustive forecasts, being set-valued and aiming at correctly specifying the entire functional, and selective forecasts, content with solely specifying a single point in the correct functional. Uncovering the structural relation between the two corresponding notions of elicitability and identifiability, we establish that a set-valued functional can be either selectively elicitable or exhaustively elicitable. Notably, selections of quantiles such as the lower quantile turn out not to be elicitable in general. Applying these structural results to systemic risk measures, we construct oriented selective identification functions, which induce a family of strictly consistent exhaustive elementary scoring functions. We discuss equivariance properties of these scores. We demonstrate their applicability in a simulation study considering comparative backtests of Diebold-Mariano type with a pointwise traffic-light illustration of Murphy diagrams

Der Einfluss der tracheobronchialen Instabilität auf die Morbidität und das Langzeitüberleben bei Manschettenresektionen in der Alterschirurgie

R. Tuby's Dodgem loads photographed 1979