Rigorous a-posteriori analysis using numerical eigenvalue bounds in a surface growth model

In order to prove numerically the global existence and uniqueness of smooth solutions of a fourth order, nonlinear PDE, we derive rigorous a-posteriori upper bounds on the supremum of the numerical range of the linearized operator. These bounds also have to be easily computable in order to be applicable to our rigorous a-posteriori methods, as we use them in each time-step of the numerical discretization. The final goal is to establish global bounds on smooth local solutions, which then establish global uniqueness.Comment: 19 pages, 9 figure

Matter inflation with A_4 flavour symmetry breaking

We discuss model building in tribrid inflation, which is a framework for realising inflation in the matter sector of supersymmetric particle physics models. The inflaton is a D-flat combination of matter fields, and inflation ends by a phase transition in which some Higgs field obtains a vacuum expectation value. We first describe the general procedure for implementing tribrid inflation in realistic models of particle physics that can be applied to a wide variety of BSM particle physics models around the GUT scale. We then demonstrate how the procedure works for an explicit lepton flavour model based on an A_4 family symmetry. The model is both predictive and phenomenologically viable, and illustrates how tribrid inflation connects cosmological and particle physics parameters. In particular, it predicts a relation between the neutrino Yukawa coupling and the running of the spectral index alpha_s. We also show how topological defects from the flavour symmetry breaking can be avoided automatically.Comment: 26 pages, 4 figures, v2 matches publication in JCA

Asymptotic independence for unimodal densities

Asymptotic independence of the components of random vectors is a concept used in many applications. The standard criteria for checking asymptotic independence are given in terms of distribution functions (dfs). Dfs are rarely available in an explicit form, especially in the multivariate case. Often we are given the form of the density or, via the shape of the data clouds, one can obtain a good geometric image of the asymptotic shape of the level sets of the density. This paper establishes a simple sufficient condition for asymptotic independence for light-tailed densities in terms of this asymptotic shape. This condition extends Sibuya's classic result on asymptotic independence for Gaussian densities.Comment: 33 pages, 4 figure

BICEP2 implications for single-field slow-roll inflation revisited

It is generally believed that in single-field slow-roll inflation, a large tensor-to-scalar ratio $r > 0.1$ requires inflaton field values close to or above the Planck scale. Recently, it has been claimed that $r > 0.15$ can be achieved with much smaller inflaton field values $\Delta \phi < M_{Pl}/10$. We show that in single-field slow-roll inflation, it is impossible to reconcile $r > 0.1$ with such small field values, independently of the form of the potential, and that the recent claim to the contrary is based on an invalid approximation. We conclude that the result of the BICEP2 measurement of $r > 0.1$, if confirmed, truly has the potential to rule out small-field models of single-field slow-roll inflation.Comment: 9 pages, 2 figures, v3: references and note on arXiv:1404.3398v2 adde

Elicitability and backtesting: Perspectives for banking regulation

Conditional forecasts of risk measures play an important role in internal risk management of financial institutions as well as in regulatory capital calculations. In order to assess forecasting performance of a risk measurement procedure, risk measure forecasts are compared to the realized financial losses over a period of time and a statistical test of correctness of the procedure is conducted. This process is known as backtesting. Such traditional backtests are concerned with assessing some optimality property of a set of risk measure estimates. However, they are not suited to compare different risk estimation procedures. We investigate the proposal of comparative backtests, which are better suited for method comparisons on the basis of forecasting accuracy, but necessitate an elicitable risk measure. We argue that supplementing traditional backtests with comparative backtests will enhance the existing trading book regulatory framework for banks by providing the correct incentive for accuracy of risk measure forecasts. In addition, the comparative backtesting framework could be used by banks internally as well as by researchers to guide selection of forecasting methods. The discussion focuses on three risk measures, Value-at-Risk, expected shortfall and expectiles, and is supported by a simulation study and data analysis

Hill crossing during preheating after hilltop inflation

In 'hilltop inflation', inflation takes place when the inflaton field slowly rolls from close to a maximum of its potential (i.e. the 'hilltop') towards its minimum. When the inflaton potential is associated with a phase transition, possible topological defects produced during this phase transition, such as domain walls, are efficiently diluted during inflation. It is typically assumed that they also do not reform after inflation, i.e. that the inflaton field stays on its side of the 'hill', finally performing damped oscillations around the minimum of the potential. In this paper we study the linear and the non-linear phases of preheating after hilltop inflation. We find that the fluctuations of the inflaton field during the tachyonic oscillation phase grow strong enough to allow the inflaton field to form regions in position space where it crosses 'over the top of the hill' towards the 'wrong vacuum'. We investigate the formation and behaviour of these overshooting regions using lattice simulations: Rather than durable domain walls, these regions form oscillon-like structures (i.e. localized bubbles that oscillate between the two vacua) which should be included in a careful study of preheating in hilltop inflation.Comment: 22 pages, 10 figures, v2 matches publication in JCAP. Animated movies of our simulations are available online at https://particlesandcosmology.unibas.ch/files/hilltop_preheating.htm

Hilltop inflation with preinflation from coupling to matter fields

We propose a class of models of supersymmetric hilltop inflation (also called "new inflation") where the initial conditions of the inflaton close to the hilltop are generated through "matter field preinflation". This is achieved via a coupling term between the inflaton and matter fields (i.e. Standard Model fields or a right-handed neutrino). The same coupling also opens up a decay channel for the inflaton into Standard Model fields, which allows efficient reheating of the universe. We discuss the multifield dynamics of the inflaton and matter fields during inflation using the delta N formalism and show under which conditions the model effectively reduces to single-field hilltop inflation during the last 60 e-folds. We also study perturbative reheating through the matter-inflaton coupling for a specific example where the matter field is identified with a right-handed (s)neutrino, and demonstrate that in this case the model can generate the observed baryon asymmetry through nonthermal leptogenesis.Comment: 26 pages, 10 figures, v2: reference added to match publication in JCA

Abnormal long wave dispersion phenomena in a slightly compressible elastic plate with non-classical boundary conditions

A two parameter asymptotic analysis is employed to investigate some unusual long wave dispersion phenomena in respect of symmetric motion in a nearly incompressible elastic plate. The plate is not subject to the usual classical traction free boundary conditions, but rather has its faces fixed, precluding any displacement on the boundary. The abnormal long wave behaviour results in the derivation of non-local approximations for symmetric motion, giving frequency as a function of wave number. Motivated by these approximations, the asymptotic forms of displacement components established and long wave asymptotic integration is carried out