Interaction between cardiovascular risk factors and body mass index and 10-year incidence of cardiovascular disease, cancer death, and overall mortality

The effect of above-normal body mass index (BMI) on health outcomes is controversial because it is difficult to distinguish from the effect due to BMI-associated cardiovascular risk factors. The objective was to analyze the impact on 10-year incidence of cardiovascular disease, cancer deaths and overall mortality of the interaction between cardiovascular risk factors and BMI. We conducted a pooled analysis of individual data from 12 Spanish population cohorts with 10-year follow-up. Participants had no previous history of cardiovascular diseases and were 35-79years old at basal examination. Body mass index was measured at baseline being the outcome measures ten-year cardiovascular disease, cancer and overall mortality. Multivariable analyses were adjusted for potential confounders, considering the significant interactions with cardiovascular risk factors. We included 54,446 individuals (46.5% with overweight and 27.8% with obesity). After considering the significant interactions, the 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease was significantly increased in women with overweight and obesity [Hazard Ratio=2.34 (95% confidence interval: 1.19-4.61) and 5.65 (1.54-20.73), respectively]. Overweight and obesity significantly increased the risk of cancer death in women [3.98 (1.53-10.37) and 11.61 (1.93-69.72)]. Finally, obese men had an increased risk of cancer death and overall mortality [1.62 (1.03-2.54) and 1.34 (1.01-1.76), respectively]. In conclusion, overweight and obesity significantly increased the risk of cancer death and of fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease in women; whereas obese men had a significantly higher risk of death for all causes and for cancer. Cardiovascular risk factors may act as effect modifiers in these associations

Multi-ancestry GWAS reveals excitotoxicity associated with outcome after ischaemic stroke

During the first hours after stroke onset, neurological deficits can be highly unstable: some patients rapidly improve, while others deteriorate. This early neurological instability has a major impact on long-term outcome. Here, we aimed to determine the genetic architecture of early neurological instability measured by the difference between the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) within 6 h of stroke onset and NIHSS at 24 h. A total of 5876 individuals from seven countries (Spain, Finland, Poland, USA, Costa Rica, Mexico and Korea) were studied using a multi-ancestry meta-analyses. We found that 8.7% of NIHSS at 24 h of variance was explained by common genetic variations, and also that early neurological instability has a different genetic architecture from that of stroke risk. Eight loci (1p21.1, 1q42.2, 2p25.1, 2q31.2, 2q33.3, 5q33.2, 7p21.2 and 13q31.1) were genome-wide significant and explained 1.8% of the variability suggesting that additional variants influence early change in neurological deficits. We used functional genomics and bioinformatic annotation to identify the genes driving the association from each locus. Expression quantitative trait loci mapping and summary data-based Mendelian randomization indicate that ADAM23 (log Bayes factor = 5.41) was driving the association for 2q33.3. Gene-based analyses suggested that GRIA1 (log Bayes factor = 5.19), which is predominantly expressed in the brain, is the gene driving the association for the 5q33.2 locus. These analyses also nominated GNPAT (log Bayes factor = 7.64) ABCB5 (log Bayes factor = 5.97) for the 1p21.1 and 7p21.1 loci. Human brain single-nuclei RNA-sequencing indicates that the gene expression of ADAM23 and GRIA1 is enriched in neurons. ADAM23, a presynaptic protein and GRIA1, a protein subunit of the AMPA receptor, are part of a synaptic protein complex that modulates neuronal excitability. These data provide the first genetic evidence in humans that excitotoxicity may contribute to early neurological instability after acute ischaemic stroke. Ibanez et al. perform a multi-ancestry meta-analysis to investigate the genetic architecture of early stroke outcomes. Two of the eight genome-wide significant loci identified-ADAM23 and GRIA1-are involved in synaptic excitability, suggesting that excitotoxicity contributes to neurological instability after ischaemic stroke.Peer reviewe

World Health Organization cardiovascular disease risk charts: revised models to estimate risk in 21 global regions

BACKGROUND: To help adapt cardiovascular disease risk prediction approaches to low-income and middle-income countries, WHO has convened an effort to develop, evaluate, and illustrate revised risk models. Here, we report the derivation, validation, and illustration of the revised WHO cardiovascular disease risk prediction charts that have been adapted to the circumstances of 21 global regions. METHODS: In this model revision initiative, we derived 10-year risk prediction models for fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (ie, myocardial infarction and stroke) using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration. Models included information on age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total cholesterol. For derivation, we included participants aged 40-80 years without a known baseline history of cardiovascular disease, who were followed up until the first myocardial infarction, fatal coronary heart disease, or stroke event. We recalibrated models using age-specific and sex-specific incidences and risk factor values available from 21 global regions. For external validation, we analysed individual participant data from studies distinct from those used in model derivation. We illustrated models by analysing data on a further 123 743 individuals from surveys in 79 countries collected with the WHO STEPwise Approach to Surveillance. FINDINGS: Our risk model derivation involved 376 177 individuals from 85 cohorts, and 19 333 incident cardiovascular events recorded during 10 years of follow-up. The derived risk prediction models discriminated well in external validation cohorts (19 cohorts, 1 096 061 individuals, 25 950 cardiovascular disease events), with Harrell's C indices ranging from 0·685 (95% CI 0·629-0·741) to 0·833 (0·783-0·882). For a given risk factor profile, we found substantial variation across global regions in the estimated 10-year predicted risk. For example, estimated cardiovascular disease risk for a 60-year-old male smoker without diabetes and with systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg and total cholesterol of 5 mmol/L ranged from 11% in Andean Latin America to 30% in central Asia. When applied to data from 79 countries (mostly low-income and middle-income countries), the proportion of individuals aged 40-64 years estimated to be at greater than 20% risk ranged from less than 1% in Uganda to more than 16% in Egypt. INTERPRETATION: We have derived, calibrated, and validated new WHO risk prediction models to estimate cardiovascular disease risk in 21 Global Burden of Disease regions. The widespread use of these models could enhance the accuracy, practicability, and sustainability of efforts to reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease worldwide. FUNDING: World Health Organization, British Heart Foundation (BHF), BHF Cambridge Centre for Research Excellence, UK Medical Research Council, and National Institute for Health Research

Geoeconomic variations in epidemiology, ventilation management, and outcomes in invasively ventilated intensive care unit patients without acute respiratory distress syndrome: a pooled analysis of four observational studies

Background: Geoeconomic variations in epidemiology, the practice of ventilation, and outcome in invasively ventilated intensive care unit (ICU) patients without acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) remain unexplored. In this analysis we aim to address these gaps using individual patient data of four large observational studies. Methods: In this pooled analysis we harmonised individual patient data from the ERICC, LUNG SAFE, PRoVENT, and PRoVENT-iMiC prospective observational studies, which were conducted from June, 2011, to December, 2018, in 534 ICUs in 54 countries. We used the 2016 World Bank classification to define two geoeconomic regions: middle-income countries (MICs) and high-income countries (HICs). ARDS was defined according to the Berlin criteria. Descriptive statistics were used to compare patients in MICs versus HICs. The primary outcome was the use of low tidal volume ventilation (LTVV) for the first 3 days of mechanical ventilation. Secondary outcomes were key ventilation parameters (tidal volume size, positive end-expiratory pressure, fraction of inspired oxygen, peak pressure, plateau pressure, driving pressure, and respiratory rate), patient characteristics, the risk for and actual development of acute respiratory distress syndrome after the first day of ventilation, duration of ventilation, ICU length of stay, and ICU mortality. Findings: Of the 7608 patients included in the original studies, this analysis included 3852 patients without ARDS, of whom 2345 were from MICs and 1507 were from HICs. Patients in MICs were younger, shorter and with a slightly lower body-mass index, more often had diabetes and active cancer, but less often chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and heart failure than patients from HICs. Sequential organ failure assessment scores were similar in MICs and HICs. Use of LTVV in MICs and HICs was comparable (42\ub74% vs 44\ub72%; absolute difference \u20131\ub769 [\u20139\ub758 to 6\ub711] p=0\ub767; data available in 3174 [82%] of 3852 patients). The median applied positive end expiratory pressure was lower in MICs than in HICs (5 [IQR 5\u20138] vs 6 [5\u20138] cm H2O; p=0\ub70011). ICU mortality was higher in MICs than in HICs (30\ub75% vs 19\ub79%; p=0\ub70004; adjusted effect 16\ub741% [95% CI 9\ub752\u201323\ub752]; p<0\ub70001) and was inversely associated with gross domestic product (adjusted odds ratio for a US$10 000 increase per capita 0\ub780 [95% CI 0\ub775\u20130\ub786]; p<0\ub70001). Interpretation: Despite similar disease severity and ventilation management, ICU mortality in patients without ARDS is higher in MICs than in HICs, with a strong association with country-level economic status. Funding: No funding

Multi-ancestry GWAS reveals excitotoxicity associated with outcome after ischaemic stroke

During the first hours after stroke onset, neurological deficits can be highly unstable: some patients rapidly improve, while others deteriorate. This early neurological instability has a major impact on long-term outcome. Here, we aimed to determine the genetic architecture of early neurological instability measured by the difference between the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) within 6 h of stroke onset and NIHSS at 24 h. A total of 5876 individuals from seven countries (Spain, Finland, Poland, USA, Costa Rica, Mexico and Korea) were studied using a multi-ancestry meta-analyses. We found that 8.7% of NIHSS at 24 h of variance was explained by common genetic variations, and also that early neurological instability has a different genetic architecture from that of stroke risk. Eight loci (1p21.1, 1q42.2, 2p25.1, 2q31.2, 2q33.3, 5q33.2, 7p21.2 and 13q31.1) were genome-wide significant and explained 1.8% of the variability suggesting that additional variants influence early change in neurological deficits. We used functional genomics and bioinformatic annotation to identify the genes driving the association from each locus. Expression quantitative trait loci mapping and summary data-based Mendelian randomization indicate that ADAM23 (log Bayes factor = 5.41) was driving the association for 2q33.3. Gene-based analyses suggested that GRIA1 (log Bayes factor = 5.19), which is predominantly expressed in the brain, is the gene driving the association for the 5q33.2 locus. These analyses also nominated GNPAT (log Bayes factor = 7.64) ABCB5 (log Bayes factor = 5.97) for the 1p21.1 and 7p21.1 loci. Human brain single-nuclei RNA-sequencing indicates that the gene expression of ADAM23 and GRIA1 is enriched in neurons. ADAM23, a presynaptic protein and GRIA1, a protein subunit of the AMPA receptor, are part of a synaptic protein complex that modulates neuronal excitability. These data provide the first genetic evidence in humans that excitotoxicity may contribute to early neurological instability after acute ischaemic stroke. Ibanez et al. perform a multi-ancestry meta-analysis to investigate the genetic architecture of early stroke outcomes. Two of the eight genome-wide significant loci identified-ADAM23 and GRIA1-are involved in synaptic excitability, suggesting that excitotoxicity contributes to neurological instability after ischaemic stroke.Peer reviewe

Multi-Ancestry GWAS reveals excitotoxicity associated with outcome after ischaemic stroke

Funding: This work was supported by grants from the Emergency Medicine Foundation Career Development Grant; AHA Mentored Clinical & Population Research Award (14CRP18860027); NIH/NINDS-R01-NS085419 (C.C., J.M.L.); NIH/NINDS-R37-NS107230, NIH/NINDS U24-NS107230 (J.M.L.); NIH/NINDS-K23-NS099487 (L.H.); NIH/NIA-K99-AG062723 (L.I.); Barnes-Jewish Hospital Foundation (J.M.L.); Biogen (C.C., J.M.L.); Bright Focus Foundation, US Department of Defense, Helsinki University Central Hospital; Finnish Medical Foundation; Finland government subsidiary funds; Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation; Instituto de Salud Carlos III (grants ‘Registro BASICMAR’ Funding for Research in Health (PI051737), ‘GWALA project’ from Fondos de Investigación Sanitaria ISC III (PI10/02064, PI12/01238 and PI15/00451), JR18/00004); Fondos FEDER/EDRF Red de Investigación Cardiovascular (RD12/0042/0020); Fundació la Marató TV3; Genestroke Consortium (76/C/2011); Recercaixa’13 (JJ086116). Tomás Sobrino (CPII17/00027), Francisco Campos (CPII19/00020) and Israel Fernandez are supported by Miguel Servet II Program from Instituto de Salud Carlos III and Fondos FEDER. I.F. is also supported by Maestro project (PI18/01338) and Pre-test project (PMP15/00022) from Instituto de Salud Carlos III and Fondos Feder, Agaur; and Epigenesis project from Marató TV3 Foundation. J.C., J.M., A.D., J.M.-F., J.A. and I.F. are supported by Invictus plus Network (RD16/0019) from Instituto de Salud Carlos III and Fondos Feder. Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP-2013/07559-3) (I.L.-C.), Sigrid Juselius Foundation. The MEGASTROKE project received funding from sources specified at http://www.megastroke.org/acknowledgments.html. B.S., B.A. and F.S. are supported by NIH awards NS097000, NS101718, NS075035, NS079153 and NS106950.During the first hours after stroke onset, neurological deficits can be highly unstable: some patients rapidly improve, while others deteriorate. This early neurological instability has a major impact on long-term outcome. Here, we aimed to determine the genetic architecture of early neurological instability measured by the difference between the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) within 6h of stroke onset and NIHSS at 24h.  A total of 5876 individuals from seven countries (Spain, Finland, Poland, USA, Costa Rica, Mexico and Korea) were studied using a multi-ancestry meta-analyses. We found that 8.7% of NIHSS at 24h of variance was explained by common genetic variations, and also that early neurological instability has a different genetic architecture from that of stroke risk. Eight loci (1p21.1, 1q42.2, 2p25.1, 2q31.2, 2q33.3, 5q33.2, 7p21.2 and 13q31.1) were genome-wide significant and explained 1.8% of the variability suggesting that additional variants influence early change in neurological deficits. We used functional genomics and bioinformatic annotation to identify the genes driving the association from each locus. Expression quantitative trait loci mapping and summary data-based Mendelian randomization indicate that ADAM23 (log Bayes factor = 5.41) was driving the association for 2q33.3. Gene-based analyses suggested that GRIA1 (log Bayes factor = 5.19), which is predominantly expressed in the brain, is the gene driving the association for the 5q33.2 locus. These analyses also nominated GNPAT (log Bayes factor = 7.64) ABCB5 (log Bayes factor = 5.97) for the 1p21.1 and 7p21.1 loci. Human brain single-nuclei RNA-sequencing indicates that the gene expression of ADAM23 and GRIA1 is enriched in neurons. ADAM23, a presynaptic protein and GRIA1, a protein subunit of the AMPA receptor, are part of a synaptic protein complex that modulates neuronal excitability.  These data provide the first genetic evidence in humans that excitotoxicity may contribute to early neurological instability after acute ischaemic stroke.PostprintPeer reviewe

Multi-ancestry genetic study in 5,876 patients identifies an association between excitotoxic genes and early outcomes after acute ischemic stroke

During the first hours after stroke onset neurological deficits can be highly unstable: some patients rapidly improve, while others deteriorate. This early neurological instability has a major impact on long-term outcome. Here, we aimed to determine the genetic architecture of early neurological instability measured by the difference between NIH stroke scale (NIHSS) within six hours of stroke onset and NIHSS at 24h (ΔNIHSS). A total of 5,876 individuals from seven countries (Spain, Finland, Poland, United States, Costa Rica, Mexico and Korea) were studied using a multi-ancestry meta-analyses. We found that 8.7% of ΔNIHSS variance was explained by common genetic variations, and also that early neurological instability has a different genetic architecture than that of stroke risk. Seven loci (2p25.1, 2q31.2, 2q33.3, 4q34.3, 5q33.2, 6q26 and 7p21.1) were genome-wide significant and explained 2.1% of the variability suggesting that additional variants influence early change in neurological deficits. We used functional genomics and bioinformatic annotation to identify the genes driving the association from each loci. eQTL mapping and SMR indicate that ADAM23 (log Bayes Factor (LBF)=6.34) was driving the association for 2q33.3. Gene based analyses suggested that GRIA1 (LBF=5.26), which is predominantly expressed in brain, is the gene driving the association for the 5q33.2 locus. These analyses also nominated PARK2 (LBF=5.30) and ABCB5 (LBF=5.70) for the 6q26 and 7p21.1 loci. Human brain single nuclei RNA-seq indicates that the gene expression of ADAM23 and GRIA1 is enriched in neurons. ADAM23 , a pre-synaptic protein, and GRIA1 , a protein subunit of the AMPA receptor, are part of a synaptic protein complex that modulates neuronal excitability. These data provides the first evidence in humans that excitotoxicity may contribute to early neurological instability after acute ischemic stroke.RESEARCH INTO CONTEXT: Evidence before this study: No previous genome-wide association studies have investigated the genetic architecture of early outcomes after ischemic stroke.Added Value of this study: This is the first study that investigated genetic influences on early outcomes after ischemic stroke using a genome-wide approach, revealing seven genome-wide significant loci. A unique aspect of this genetic study is the inclusion of all of the major ethnicities by recruiting from participants throughout the world. Most genetic studies to date have been limited to populations of European ancestry.Implications of all available evidence: The findings provide the first evidence that genes implicating excitotoxicity contribute to human acute ischemic stroke, and demonstrates proof of principle that GWAS of acute ischemic stroke patients can reveal mechanisms involved in ischemic brain injury.</p

Multi-ancestry genetic study in 5,876 patients identifies an association between excitotoxic genes and early outcomes after acute ischemic stroke

During the first hours after stroke onset neurological deficits can be highly unstable: some patients rapidly improve, while others deteriorate. This early neurological instability has a major impact on long-term outcome. Here, we aimed to determine the genetic architecture of early neurological instability measured by the difference between NIH stroke scale (NIHSS) within six hours of stroke onset and NIHSS at 24h (ΔNIHSS). A total of 5,876 individuals from seven countries (Spain, Finland, Poland, United States, Costa Rica, Mexico and Korea) were studied using a multi-ancestry meta-analyses. We found that 8.7% of ΔNIHSS variance was explained by common genetic variations, and also that early neurological instability has a different genetic architecture than that of stroke risk. Seven loci (2p25.1, 2q31.2, 2q33.3, 4q34.3, 5q33.2, 6q26 and 7p21.1) were genome-wide significant and explained 2.1% of the variability suggesting that additional variants influence early change in neurological deficits. We used functional genomics and bioinformatic annotation to identify the genes driving the association from each loci. eQTL mapping and SMR indicate that ADAM23 (log Bayes Factor (LBF)=6.34) was driving the association for 2q33.3. Gene based analyses suggested that GRIA1 (LBF=5.26), which is predominantly expressed in brain, is the gene driving the association for the 5q33.2 locus. These analyses also nominated PARK2 (LBF=5.30) and ABCB5 (LBF=5.70) for the 6q26 and 7p21.1 loci. Human brain single nuclei RNA-seq indicates that the gene expression of ADAM23 and GRIA1 is enriched in neurons. ADAM23 , a pre-synaptic protein, and GRIA1 , a protein subunit of the AMPA receptor, are part of a synaptic protein complex that modulates neuronal excitability. These data provides the first evidence in humans that excitotoxicity may contribute to early neurological instability after acute ischemic stroke.RESEARCH INTO CONTEXT: Evidence before this study: No previous genome-wide association studies have investigated the genetic architecture of early outcomes after ischemic stroke.Added Value of this study: This is the first study that investigated genetic influences on early outcomes after ischemic stroke using a genome-wide approach, revealing seven genome-wide significant loci. A unique aspect of this genetic study is the inclusion of all of the major ethnicities by recruiting from participants throughout the world. Most genetic studies to date have been limited to populations of European ancestry.Implications of all available evidence: The findings provide the first evidence that genes implicating excitotoxicity contribute to human acute ischemic stroke, and demonstrates proof of principle that GWAS of acute ischemic stroke patients can reveal mechanisms involved in ischemic brain injury.</p

Glycated hemoglobin measurement and prediction of cardiovascular disease.

IMPORTANCE: The value of measuring levels of glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) for the prediction of first cardiovascular events is uncertain. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether adding information on HbA1c values to conventional cardiovascular risk factors is associated with improvement in prediction of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Analysis of individual-participant data available from 73 prospective studies involving 294,998 participants without a known history of diabetes mellitus or CVD at the baseline assessment. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Measures of risk discrimination for CVD outcomes (eg, C-index) and reclassification (eg, net reclassification improvement) of participants across predicted 10-year risk categories of low (<5%), intermediate (5% to <7.5%), and high (≥ 7.5%) risk. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 9.9 (interquartile range, 7.6-13.2) years, 20,840 incident fatal and nonfatal CVD outcomes (13,237 coronary heart disease and 7603 stroke outcomes) were recorded. In analyses adjusted for several conventional cardiovascular risk factors, there was an approximately J-shaped association between HbA1c values and CVD risk. The association between HbA1c values and CVD risk changed only slightly after adjustment for total cholesterol and triglyceride concentrations or estimated glomerular filtration rate, but this association attenuated somewhat after adjustment for concentrations of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and C-reactive protein. The C-index for a CVD risk prediction model containing conventional cardiovascular risk factors alone was 0.7434 (95% CI, 0.7350 to 0.7517). The addition of information on HbA1c was associated with a C-index change of 0.0018 (0.0003 to 0.0033) and a net reclassification improvement of 0.42 (-0.63 to 1.48) for the categories of predicted 10-year CVD risk. The improvement provided by HbA1c assessment in prediction of CVD risk was equal to or better than estimated improvements for measurement of fasting, random, or postload plasma glucose levels. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In a study of individuals without known CVD or diabetes, additional assessment of HbA1c values in the context of CVD risk assessment provided little incremental benefit for prediction of CVD risk